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Wednesday, June 1
Pardon me for dropping the ball for a couple of days there as I made a fraught transition from Sydney back to Perth. You will now find my results facility regularly updating again as the very last votes trickle in over the next few days. As you’re all no doubt aware, it seems generally accepted that Labor will make it not merely to 76 but to 77 seats, having opened up a 301-vote lead in Gilmore with barely 1000 votes left to go. Since opening the 142-vote lead noted in the previous update, Labor has further benefited from a 181-122 break in its favour on electronic-assisted COVID votes and 1401-1335 on declaration pre-polls. While later batches of absent votes were predictably not as strong for Labor as the first, they did them no actual harm, breaking 690-682 their way, and they even got a 127-101 break from the latest postals.
Monday, May 30
The ABC is now calling Macnamara for Labor, and with it a Labor majority of 76 seats out of 151, with a growing chance that Gilmore will make it 77. The AEC’s three-candidate preferred count for Macnamara has not been updated, showing Liberal on 29202 (33.6%), Labor on 29152 (33.5%) and the Greens on 28657 (32.9%), with Labor to lose the seat if the Greens overcome the 495 deficit against Labor, unless the Liberals also lose their 50 vote lead over Labor. This leaves it lagging 2354 votes behind the primary vote count, with three batches added today accounting for the shortfall:
• The electronic-assisted COVID votes were, contrary to earlier suggestions, neither approaching 1000 in number (perhaps there are more yet to be added, though I’d doubt it) nor especially favourable to the Greens. The 477 formal votes went Labor 169, Greens 154 and Liberals 105. This would have added 10 or so Labor’s lead over the Greens, and erased the Liberals’ 50 vote lead over Labor with half-a-dozen or so to spare.
• There were 1447 pre-polls added to the 1678 that were in the count already, of which 417 went to the Greens, 412 went to Labor and 404 went to the Liberals. This would have cut about 40 from Labor’s lead over the Greens and restored to the Liberals the 50-vote lead over Labor I just said they had lost on the COVID votes.
• The 475 absent votes added today were about half of those outstanding, and were much like earlier batches in that the Greens got 169, Labor got 134 and the Liberals got 114. This would have cut about 45 votes out of Labor’s lead over the Greens and hardly affected their lead over the Liberals.
• No postals were added today. There are 266 of these to be added to the count, plus however many arrive in the post over the coming days, which surely won’t be many.
My best estimate is that this still leaves Labor 420 votes ahead of the Greens on the three-candidate preferred, with the outstanding votes consisting of at most 555 absents, 730 pre-polls (there are about 1000 fewer of these than I suggested in yesterday’s update) and 266 postals, plus the few extra postals that will trickle in over the coming days. Realistically, any cut to Labor’s lead over the Greens here will number in the dozens rather than the hundreds. There are, however, potentially enough to erase a Liberal lead over the Labor that I reckon to be about 44 votes, though whether that happens is academic if Labor stays ahead of the Greens.
There was further good news for Labor today in Gilmore, where Labor’s Fiona Phillips has opened a 142 vote lead over Andrew Constance. This was mostly due to a remarkable 334-145 break in their favour on the first batch of absents, which obviously came for a strong area for them. Labor were further boosted by a 157-132 split on the latest batch of postals, 388-278 from the first declaration pre-polls and 95-63 from the provisionals, plus a net gain of 40 on rechecking of ordinary votes.
Labor’s position further improved in Lyons, where the second batch of absent votes broke 550-306 their way, putting their lead at 932 with no more than 2000 still to come. However, Deakin continues to slip away from Labor, with the latest postals breaking 1112-836 to the Liberals, more than compensating for advantages to Labor of 998-714 and 720-696 on the latest absents and pre-polls. This puts Liberal member Michael Sukkar 619 votes ahead with at most 2500 still to come.
There are now three seats with electronic-assisted COVID results in (Macnamara, Flinders and Graynder), and it seems they typically involve around 400 votes that are roughly 10% below par for the Liberals and 3% to 4% above it for Labor and the Greens. This suggests they will boost Labor by a few dozen votes when reported in Gilmore, Lyons and Deakin.
Sunday, May 29
With the Greens now effectively confirmed as the winners in Brisbane, Labor’s bid for the seventy-sixth seat needed for a majority hinges on three seats: Macnamara, which like Brisbane will be won by whichever out of Labor and the Greens survives to the final count against the Liberals; and the conventional contests of Gilmore and Deakin.
The Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were devoted to preparing for a big push of counting in these three seats, meaning I have nothing to add to my updates from Saturday. In Macnamara especially, the result may well prove so close that it may not be definitively known until the final eligible postal votes have trickled in at the end of the week.
Note also the post directly below this one taking a deep and overdue look at the Senate result.
Do COVID votes count as postals, declaration prepolls or absents? Are they also a separate category to the totals already posted?
They are classed as a “COVID-19 PPVC” so probably in ordinary votes where other pre-polls are (Checking the Flinders page, they have COVID votes counted but nothing for absents, provisional or declaration pre-poll).
Does the postal acceptance rule apply for postal votes? i.e. they have to be posted by close of polls.
I am happy to see the AEC conducting its count in an orderly and methodical manner. These late counts are very much a case of more haste and less speed. An extra few days wait for a small number of political (pseph?) tragics is a very modest price to pay for getting the outcome right and maintaining integrity and confidence in our system.
The AEC is an absolute pillar of Australian democracy and society, and we should all cherish their meticulous work (whilst still being allowed to be just a little bit impatient!).
I know this is a moot point as Labor will likely get 76 and if not will definitely get 75 + with minority support, but I am still trying to get my head around PM Albo being declared so quickly before 76. I’m a Labor voter so no complaints just wondering if this was convention only, couldn’t minority reps or Libs argue not enough to form govt? Anyone who knows answer appreciated as have googled and cannot find the precise answer!
I see that now. But are there any other seats apart from Flinders where they were counted?
They average 500 an electorate but it will vary highly from one electorate to another, based on population density.
Seems to be a big batch of dec prepolls just dropped
It seems to be less bad for Labor and less good for the Greens than previous ones from memory
Steve – probably not the thread for that, but in essence, Albanese secured promises of confidence and supply from the returning crossbenchers, which coupled with the fact that only Labor could come anywhere near forming government, was sufficient for Governor-General to award Albo his commission. The Prime Minister doesn’t necessarily need to command a majority on the floor of the House, he/ she just needs to demonstrate to the GG that he/she would have the confidence of the House.
Steve, as soon as Labor were well into the 70s and Coalition not likely to make the 60s it was going to be a Labor government
Steve My understanding is Albo was able to go to the GG saying he could form government, with guarantees from the existing independents and the Green that they would not support no confidence motions
1447 dec pre-polls just dropped in Macnamara. I just calculated how they broke in 3CP terms. Here it is compared to the previous dec prepolls:
LIB 34.87% (+1.91%)
ALP 31.08% (+0.38%)
GRN 34.05% (-2.29%)
Definitely a worse batch for the Greens, only 3% better than Labor compared to 5% better on the earlier batches.
Strangely enough the Liberals came first in 3CP terms this time.
I now calculate the following current 3CP count (not including the small corrections that have been made because I don’t know where they have happened):
LIB 29,849 (33.56%) – Extended their lead to 99 votes
ALP 29,750 (33.45%)
GRN 29,341 (32.99%) – Cut into the ALP lead by only around 42 votes, about 39 less than projected
Updating my modelling with the new overall dec prepoll rates, the parties appear to be headed straight for right around the 33.5% / 33.3% / 33.2% finish that I’m predicting.
Greens are now chasing 410 votes to pass Labor, with the following remaining:
873 absent
2029 dec prepoll
Around 350 provisional based on a 2/3 rejected rate?
Around 1000 Covid votes?
Unknown number of postals (could be anywhere from 266-2000)
The Labor lead is projected to still be around 330 now after absents & dec prepolls (but before Covid, Provisionals & Postals), so their position is definitely strengthened with that last batch.
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Hugoaugogosays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 3:14 pm
Probably too little too late now, but the ABC figures show about 300 cut from Sukkar’s lead in Deakin, which is now 613. Of the last three, I’d probably love to see this one fall to Labor most of all, given how I’d love to to see the back of Sukkar, but I appreciate that it remains only a very faint outside chance.
”
Sukkar is leading by 604 as per Tally room
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed reading this thread too, so thanks to the contributors who have spent the time to keep us updated.
I especially liked 2 peeps agreeing on the probability of various outcomes but disagreeing on the method of arriving at their assumptions.
A real life nerd fight is the cherry on top, cheers guys.
FWIW, Labor has done very well on absents in Lyons – 57/43. Its lead is now very comfortable.
Is it too much to ask for the margin to reduce enough for a auto recount?
At least he now has the joys of being the MP of a very marginal seat and the likelihood that the ALP will put in some more effort on things like postals next time.
Was keeping a sly eye on Lyons JIC – Labor now “out” to 929. Greens doing well in the absents and pushing up Labors’ TPP.
Jansays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 4:28 pm
I’d love to to see the back of Sukkar, but I appreciate that it remains only a very faint outside chance.
Is it too much to ask for the margin to reduce enough for a auto recount?
At least he now has the joys of being the MP of a very marginal seat and the likelihood that the ALP will put in some more effort on things like postals next time.
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Plus he won’t be able to campaign on the amount of money given to football clubs and churches…
If only Sukkar hadn’t done so well on postals, probably a very outside chance that Labor overhauls a 600 vote lead, depends on how much is left to count I guess.
More hopeful news about Gilmore, hope that lead holds for Fiona Phillips. As for Macnamara, no idea really about the machinations of the preferencing in that seat and the 3 way thing.
Just had a good look at Gilmore on the AEC page.
The problem for Constance – only 170 postal votes left to be processed, while there are 4,000 absentees and pre poll votes they haven’t yet processed.
Similar situation in Deakin, not many postals left, a hell of a lot of prepolls and absentees left to be processed – probably a huge long shot the Labor candidate overturns a 600 vote lead as of now, but stranger things have happened.
And how many covid phone votes are out there to be processed?
Not many actually and not enough. Bonham saying the ALPs slim hope rests on the checking of a large PPVC. But the original count there already showed a larger than average swing to them. So its red rover.
I understand the theory of why the conservatives do well on postals (often an older demographic than ordinary) but I have never heard why Labor does well in absentees. Suggestions? – a younger demographic away from home for university, work, holidays?
Similar number of votes yet to be processed in Gilmore and Deakin – 4400 roughly.
I do agree about Deakin, Sukkar will likely get home because of a huge postal vote campaign he obviously put the effort into, still it will be a very marginal seat that he’ll have to work a lot harder in this time.
So in other words I think absentees will help Labor in Gilmore to win the seat, albeit very narrowly, and Constance hasn’t done nearly as well on postal votes as Liberals in other seats around the country.
>>>>>
I understand the theory of why the conservatives do well on postals (often an older demographic than ordinary) but I have never heard why Labor does well in absentees. Suggestions? – a younger demographic away from home for university, work, holidays?
>>>>>>>>
That’s my theory. No idea if it’s been tested.
The hard copy roll at the booths had your date of birth listed, so the info on postal / absent might be knowable.
I doubt there is enough votes to go to change the Deakin result.
Provided that the other Prepoll declaration votes go the same way as the first patch did, Gilmore is looking very positive for Labor. It might not end up as most marginal seat at the end.
Macnamara – Mr Green thinks there is 355 votes between Labor and the Greens, who are in 2nd and 3rd position. There are only about 2600 votes to be processed so the Greens need to lead those by 13.6% to close that gap. They aren’t not leading in the any of the categories by that much. And there are probably a punch of provisional still to be tossed too, so it might be even higher than that.
OK, so we have new values for Macnamara. Liberals have extended their lead by 54 votes, Greens have narrowed things by 140 votes.
Current numbers under Declaration vote scrutiny progress are 555 absents, 1057 provisionals, 730 dec pre-polls, and 266 postals. Assuming 1/3 of provisionals pass scrutiny, and the vast majority of the rest also do so, we’re looking at nearly 1900 votes left to count, not including any final postals, dec pre-polls, etc, that may still be yet to arrive.
It appears that somewhere around 1900 votes have been added since the previous 3CP update last night. So as a really rough estimate, we could expect a similar change as the last one, which would mean the Labor/Greens gap would narrow to about 215. Of course, that’s before accounting for the proportions, so there’s a decent amount of error in this number, even before you factor in the regular random sampling effects.
Using the current preference flow rate – 46.71% to Liberals, 17.45% to Labor, and 35.83% to Greens – and assuming that absent and dec pp continue as they have done so far, then Greens would be 273 votes behind Labor (before factoring in postals or provisionals, or EAV Covid). If we assume all Absent and Dec PP issued envelopes are received (and neglect rejection), then it’s 188 votes. Looking at 2019, it looks like Absents tend to all come in, while Dec PP do not, so it’s probably somewhere between those two values… so let’s go with 246, this is what happens if you use the full absent number and the 730 for the dec pp.
To get a sense of possible postal votes left to come in, we can look at issued vs received in 2019. 19752 issued, 15758 received. So there were about 4000 postal votes issued but not received. If this holds up, there might be another 400 or so postals left to come in (or not) on top of the 266 uncounted.
By my calculation, under the circumstance that Absent and Dec PP continue as they have, and preferences flow according to the electorate average, Greens would be getting 36.45% of the remaining 3CP vote, while Labor would be getting 30.63%.
Let’s suppose that provisionals trend comparably to 2019 – that is, about 330 provisional votes counted, with Greens overperforming by 9.5%, Labor underperforming by 6.9%, Liberals underperforming by 6%, and Others therefore overperforming by 3.4%. Then Greens would gain an extra 123 votes from provisionals relative to Labor.
Which means Greens would be behind by maybe 123 votes. And with 109 votes gained with a 5.82% disparity between Labor and Greens, that means there would need to be an extra 6.57% margin to Greens in the final counting (again, ignoring postals), so that they get 12.39% more than Labor from what remains.
It’s certainly not highly likely. But it’s not yet a foregone conclusion, by my estimation.
Macnamara’s EAV Covid stats just got updated. Only 477 votes and Labor outpolled the greens by 3% (approx 1% after preferences).
With those votes now presumably out of the way and no longer a possible advantage for the Greens, their chances are quickly slipping away now.
Looking like Labor will hang onto maybe a 200-250 vote lead over the Greens when all is said & done.
On a side note, Antony Green’s 3CP numbers have the Greens about 55 votes better off than I had calculated based on primary votes and previous preference flows, so they must have got a significantly better preference flow on the recent batches which countered the lower primary vote they got on the dec prepolls.
ABC seems to have given it to labor off those covid votes
Those covid votes handing 150 to 200 votes advantage to the Greens without ripping equivale nt numbers from the Libs, a big hail mary I would argue, was the only chance
ABC now showing 76 seats for Labor. Which seat was called?
Macnamara
Hopefully Gilmore tomorrow
The Lorax @ #130 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 7:33 pm
Macnamara. EAV Covid numbers came through, and it seems it was enough for Antony Green to make the call.
AEC only has Gilmore and Deakin as close seats now.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese looks set to form a majority Labor government.
The ABC election computer is projecting that Labor will hold at least 76 seats — the minimum required to form a majority government.
Breaking on the ABC that Antony Green has called Macnamara for Labor – yay!
We really need another visit from Mr Green to shine a light on the state of play in McNamara!
Although ABC News online now proclaims “Anthony Albanese and Labor to form majority government” so I guess Mr Green is happy to make the call!
I’m waiting on a tweet from Antony or Kevin.
My bad it WAS the computer not Mr Green…… Hope the computer doesn’y say No
The Covid votes were probably only ever expected to net the Greens 70-80 votes more than Labor, not 150-200; and that could never have ever had any real impact on the Liberals’ lead anyway because the very nature of the Greens getting those numbers in comparison to Labor also implies that Labor’s vote would have to have been low, so the Greens getting an advantage specifically over Labor somehow coming at the Liberals’ expense never made sense.
But that 70-80 vote Greens advantage turning into a ~5 vote Labor advantage after preferences, with just not that much left to count, has indeed killed off the Greens’ chances now so it makes sense to call the seat now.
Dr Bonham earlier..
A large batch of dec prepolls added and these were somewhat weaker for the Greens than earlier, and while reducing Labor’s lead would still fall a few dozen short of the projected reduction. So that improves Labor’s chances.
It looks to me like the Greens can only do this on COVID votes, they need there to be above average numbers of them and to break strongly. If either of those is not the case then there are probably not enough votes left.
Based on Mr Green’s previous explanations to us (last week) about why he did not “call” Macnamara earlier, I would be very surprised if ABC News was now running a news story proclaiming that Labor is likely to form a majority government without checking with Mr Green first.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-30/anthony-albanese-and-labor-to-form-majority-government/101084236
Anthony Albanese and Labor to form majority government
By political correspondent Brett Worthington
Posted 15m ago, updated 4m ago
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese looks set to form a majority Labor government.
The ABC election computer is projecting that Labor will hold at least 76 seats — the minimum required to form a majority government.
The ABC projects Labor will secure the Melbourne seat of Macnamara with MP Josh Burns being re-elected.
Mr Burns defeated Liberal Party candidate Colleen Harkin on two-party preferred, but faced a strong challenge from the Greens’ Steph Hodgins-May, who finished second on first preference.
The seats of Deakin and Gilmore remain in doubt.
Assuming Labor now has 76 because Macnamara has been declared, Gilmore remains the only one seriously in doubt now ?
AEC just updated Macnamara with a 2PP count, they must have been conducting one the whole time ready to go but just not publishing it.
62.34 – 37.66 so far, and that will only increase a bit more with the last 1500-2000 votes which should favour the Greens and then flow to Labor.
Worst Liberal 2PP in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara since 1984!
Technically, in a 151 seat parliament- and taking into account Standing Order and precedent – 76 ain’t enough.
76 – ALP
75 – others
ALP provides Speaker, who must follow precedent in case of tie
Vote on the floor is
75 – ALP
75 – others
– the Speaker should always vote for further discussion, where this is possible;
– where no further discussion is possible, decisions should not be taken except by a majority; and
– a casting vote on an amendment to a bill should leave the bill in its existing form.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/Powers_practice_and_procedure/Practice7/HTML/Chapter6/The_Speaker's_vote
This is known as Denison’s Rule from 1867
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_Denison%27s_rule
Hey, I was right, take the wildcard of the Covid EAVs off the table, instant call.
Grats to Josh Burns.
Anyone know if any other EAV Covid numbers have come through, yet? I was hoping to try to estimate how they’d look in Gilmore and Deakin, and Macnamara isn’t similar enough to either one to be indicative, as I don’t know how they’d behave in seats with lower Greens votes.
@sprocket
I think considering this on top of the added security that comes with 77 seats, Gilmore is still important. Surprised Deakin hasn’t been declared already, but ALP looking favs in Gilmore
Nice try but there is no Denison’s Rule in the Constitution. Just like there is no ‘mandate’ in the Constitution. Just like there are no parties in the Constitution.