Click here for full federal election results updated live.
Wednesday, June 1
Pardon me for dropping the ball for a couple of days there as I made a fraught transition from Sydney back to Perth. You will now find my results facility regularly updating again as the very last votes trickle in over the next few days. As you’re all no doubt aware, it seems generally accepted that Labor will make it not merely to 76 but to 77 seats, having opened up a 301-vote lead in Gilmore with barely 1000 votes left to go. Since opening the 142-vote lead noted in the previous update, Labor has further benefited from a 181-122 break in its favour on electronic-assisted COVID votes and 1401-1335 on declaration pre-polls. While later batches of absent votes were predictably not as strong for Labor as the first, they did them no actual harm, breaking 690-682 their way, and they even got a 127-101 break from the latest postals.
Monday, May 30
The ABC is now calling Macnamara for Labor, and with it a Labor majority of 76 seats out of 151, with a growing chance that Gilmore will make it 77. The AEC’s three-candidate preferred count for Macnamara has not been updated, showing Liberal on 29202 (33.6%), Labor on 29152 (33.5%) and the Greens on 28657 (32.9%), with Labor to lose the seat if the Greens overcome the 495 deficit against Labor, unless the Liberals also lose their 50 vote lead over Labor. This leaves it lagging 2354 votes behind the primary vote count, with three batches added today accounting for the shortfall:
• The electronic-assisted COVID votes were, contrary to earlier suggestions, neither approaching 1000 in number (perhaps there are more yet to be added, though I’d doubt it) nor especially favourable to the Greens. The 477 formal votes went Labor 169, Greens 154 and Liberals 105. This would have added 10 or so Labor’s lead over the Greens, and erased the Liberals’ 50 vote lead over Labor with half-a-dozen or so to spare.
• There were 1447 pre-polls added to the 1678 that were in the count already, of which 417 went to the Greens, 412 went to Labor and 404 went to the Liberals. This would have cut about 40 from Labor’s lead over the Greens and restored to the Liberals the 50-vote lead over Labor I just said they had lost on the COVID votes.
• The 475 absent votes added today were about half of those outstanding, and were much like earlier batches in that the Greens got 169, Labor got 134 and the Liberals got 114. This would have cut about 45 votes out of Labor’s lead over the Greens and hardly affected their lead over the Liberals.
• No postals were added today. There are 266 of these to be added to the count, plus however many arrive in the post over the coming days, which surely won’t be many.
My best estimate is that this still leaves Labor 420 votes ahead of the Greens on the three-candidate preferred, with the outstanding votes consisting of at most 555 absents, 730 pre-polls (there are about 1000 fewer of these than I suggested in yesterday’s update) and 266 postals, plus the few extra postals that will trickle in over the coming days. Realistically, any cut to Labor’s lead over the Greens here will number in the dozens rather than the hundreds. There are, however, potentially enough to erase a Liberal lead over the Labor that I reckon to be about 44 votes, though whether that happens is academic if Labor stays ahead of the Greens.
There was further good news for Labor today in Gilmore, where Labor’s Fiona Phillips has opened a 142 vote lead over Andrew Constance. This was mostly due to a remarkable 334-145 break in their favour on the first batch of absents, which obviously came for a strong area for them. Labor were further boosted by a 157-132 split on the latest batch of postals, 388-278 from the first declaration pre-polls and 95-63 from the provisionals, plus a net gain of 40 on rechecking of ordinary votes.
Labor’s position further improved in Lyons, where the second batch of absent votes broke 550-306 their way, putting their lead at 932 with no more than 2000 still to come. However, Deakin continues to slip away from Labor, with the latest postals breaking 1112-836 to the Liberals, more than compensating for advantages to Labor of 998-714 and 720-696 on the latest absents and pre-polls. This puts Liberal member Michael Sukkar 619 votes ahead with at most 2500 still to come.
There are now three seats with electronic-assisted COVID results in (Macnamara, Flinders and Graynder), and it seems they typically involve around 400 votes that are roughly 10% below par for the Liberals and 3% to 4% above it for Labor and the Greens. This suggests they will boost Labor by a few dozen votes when reported in Gilmore, Lyons and Deakin.
Sunday, May 29
With the Greens now effectively confirmed as the winners in Brisbane, Labor’s bid for the seventy-sixth seat needed for a majority hinges on three seats: Macnamara, which like Brisbane will be won by whichever out of Labor and the Greens survives to the final count against the Liberals; and the conventional contests of Gilmore and Deakin.
The Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts yesterday were devoted to preparing for a big push of counting in these three seats, meaning I have nothing to add to my updates from Saturday. In Macnamara especially, the result may well prove so close that it may not be definitively known until the final eligible postal votes have trickled in at the end of the week.
Note also the post directly below this one taking a deep and overdue look at the Senate result.
The erosion of Constance’s lead through rechecking obviously improves the chances that Phillips will crawl over the line, in what is most likely to be a desperately close outcome. Also interesting to see that only around a quarter of absent votes have been returned – by contrast in Macnamara almost all have been returned. Presumably that will be updated today, and hopefully a fair number of absents will get counted to shed some further light on the likely outcome.
Deakin has first tranche of absents and prepoll dec- doesn’t move the dial, Sukkar +887
Absents
ALP 52.76
Lib 47.24
PP dec
ALP 48.18
Lib 51.82
Cue in the rack https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-209.htm
Still zero in the Covid polling place
Abents make the heart grow fonder…
What I’m hoping to see today in Macnamara is:
– The received absents / dec prepolls to be counted
– Hopefully a large portion of the remainder of them to be ‘received’ so we get an idea of numbers
– The provisionals to at least be processed so we get an idea of how many will be counted
– Hopefully being a Monday, another return of postal envelopes so we start getting an idea of how many outstanding postal votes there are
– The EAV COVID votes to be counted
All of that should give a pretty good idea of whether the Greens closing the 495 vote gap becomes unrealistic and the seat becomes a clearer Labor retain, or if it continues to trend towards there being <100 votes in it and possibly having to wait until the end of the week for the last postals to be returned to get a result.
What is becoming increasingly unlikely (almost impossible) is that the Liberals drop to third and get eliminated, because they already have the lead and are outperforming Labor in every vote type after preferences at the moment. Covid votes might set them back a bit, but probably not enough to cancel out their advantage with decs, postals & absents, so I’d say the least likely outcome is now an ALP v GRN count.
I’ll repost from the other thread, my prediction now is the following final 3CP result (rounded to it anyway):
LIB 33.5%
ALP 33.3%
GRN 33.2% (falling just short by around 100 votes)
Given all the remaining votes are almost guaranteed to favour the Greens, and currently the spread of 3CP percentages is between 33.56% (LIB) and 32.93% (GRN), I can't see any scenario in which any of the 3 candidates finishes outside the 33.1-33.5% window.
I wonder if all 3 candidates in a 3CP race have ever been that close before? Usually, like the Prahran counts, two are really close but one is clearly out in front.
Love your data and analysis. Any chance you could publish total votes by party nationally, subdivided by the various categories (ordinary votes at polling booths, ordinary votes at pre-poll centres, postal votes, provisional votes, absent votes, out-of-area prepoll votes) ? I think this could give a helpful heuristic guide to interpreting early counting results. Thanks for considering, David
Absents aren’t looking good in Deakin. Can probably stick the fork in now
Lyne in 1993
Lab 40.63
Nat 26.69
Lib 26.68 (2 votes difference in fact)
The Libs and Nats had an agreement not to contest the result and the people of Lyne were then stuck with Noah Vaile for 14 years with a final 2PP of 54/46
I think the absents were already counted yesterday in Deakin. Increase in margin is coming from late postals (slightly weaker than the ones before).
Oakeshott, yeah I imagine there have been a lot of races where two of the three candidates were that close in the 3CP count, but one way out in front (like the Lyne example); but I wonder if there has ever been one where all 3 were over 33% and separated by only around 0.4% between first and third?
This is a pretty unique count in that regard I think.
Currently there is only 0.63% between first and third and that’s likely to reduce further given the party in third place are favoured to do the best on the remaining ballots.
Macnamara absents and dec going
1 greens
2 Labor
3 liberal
[Macnamara absents and dec going]
So Labor will win via Liberal preferences?
“sprocket_says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 10:59 am
Macnamara absents and dec going
1 greens
2 Labor
3 liberal”
It is when you load the preference shares from micros that libs have been doing slightly better on 3CP
“ShowsOnsays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 11:06 am
[Macnamara absents and dec going]
So Labor will win via Liberal preferences?”
Labor will more likely win on Green preferences
@Revisionist:
“It is when you load the preference shares from micros that libs have been doing slightly better on 3CP”
“Labor will more likely win on Green preferences”
100% agree. Labor might be beating the Liberals on primary votes but it’s by less than the Liberals’ are outperforming Labor on preferences, so for Absents & Decs (and the most recent batch of postals), the order in 3CP terms is actually:
1 Greens
2 Liberal
3 Labor
There’s little to no chance now that the Liberals drop below Labor. This will either be an ALP v LIB contest (most likely) or a GRN v LIB contest if the Greens close their 495 deficit with Labor (less likely).
The votes are breaking just the way they need to for the Greens but the issue is most likely to be that they simply run out of ballots just short of closing that gap, unless they start overperforming more, or more postal ballots than expected (which continue to break their way) are received.
Just trying to do Macnamara math mentals – just under half other categories posted and Greens pull back ~200 on Labor.
How the 500 odd non Lib/Lab/Grn fall on preferences in the batch of 3772 absents may matter a lot
Trent, IMHO, there is considerably more chance that Labor overtakes the Libs than the Greens overtake Labor
It would only take a subtle difference in the rest of the absents and dec pre polls and a strong progressive tilt in remaining postals, covid votes and provisionals
ultimately the margins are still 50 (i.e. small) and 500 (i.e. large)
sprocket_ says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 11:27 am
Just trying to do Macnamara math mentals – just under half other categories posted and Greens pull back ~200 on Labor.
How the 500 odd non Lib/Lab/Grn fall on preferences in the batch of 3772 absents may matter a lot
中华人民共和国
You are not Robinson Crusoe there cobber. That’s why I lurk and leave it to smarter people than me.
“sprocket_says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 11:27 am
Just trying to do Macnamara math mentals – just under half other categories posted and Greens pull back ~200 on Labor.
How the 500 odd non Lib/Lab/Grn fall on preferences in the batch of 3772 absents may matter a lot”
the preference flows after the initial numbers we were provided shifted to the Greens benefit (and primarily liberal disbenefit)…..we don’t know the extent this was driven by postals, absentees etc….however it would make sense if it was the lack of HTV cards that was the main contributor
Gilmore has provisionals in
Constance lead down to 182
Labor just made up 32 on provisionals in Gilmore (roughly 2/3rds processed)!
Roughly 2/3rds of processed envelopes rejected btw
Great to see Upnorth on this thread. Thanks for keeping the good feeling going throughout the election while some of the others were losing faith. We won it and Australia will be a better place for at least the next three years. Good onya cobber
Provisionals are always dodgy – people have no idea where or if they are enrolled, and just show up at a polling place
Flinders has got some COVID phone results in. I don’t know if any other seat has them (all the ones I’ve checked don’t). Margins compared to overall primary vote have been very strongly down on the Liberals (-11% PV), to the benefit of Labor (+3%), Greens (+4%) and Independent (+3%). Assuming similar trends in Macnamara probably means most of the Independent benefit going to the Greens, so a large boost for Greens and a slight boost to Labor with Liberals taking the brunt of the damage should those votes be important in a close finish.
In two-party preferred, the lean on COVID phone votes was +9% to Labor compared to overall 2PP. That would look to be a positive for Gilmore (and Deakin if it gets that close).
Revisionist that’s true, the margins are so small that they still could shift either way.
I just meant that if votes keep breaking as they are now, it trends more to the Liberals extending their lead. So while the Greens’ chances only really hinge on there being enough votes breaking the way they are; the Liberals dropping to third would require a change in how they’re breaking.
But you’re right, both scenarios are equally possible.
Sprocket – Those preferences from the 3770 absent votes you refer to have already been allocated and are already in the current 3CP count.
A couple of different projections including Kevin Bonham’s have been quite similar in projecting that after decs & absents, if they continue to break the way they are now, the order at that stage will be:
Liberal (~130 votes ahead of Labor)
Labor
Greens (~200 votes behind Labor)
I don’t think there will be too much variation in the dec & absent flows compared to now, so that will likely be the state of play before factoring in:
– Covid phone votes
– Provisionals
– Postal votes
I don’t think the Greens could possibly catch up to the Liberals on that count (it would need a ~330 vote turnaround, when a 200 vote deficit vs Labor already looks unlikely enough) which should keep the Liberals in the top 2 and that’s why I think an ALP v GRN count is the least likely option.
We can pretty much assume Covid votes & Provisionals will benefit the Greens, but the numbers will be small and probably only wipe about 80-100 votes (max) off the deficit.
That means we’ll probably end up with the Greens trailing Labor by just over 100 votes when you factor in everything except postals. This is the main reason I think Labor are looking good, because:
– We don’t know how many postals there are to count;
– How they will break is a mystery; the last batch massively favoured the Greens (outperformed Labor by 7%), the previous batches they only outperformed Labor by about 2-3%, and the batch before that Labor slightly outperformed the Greens. The first batches the Greens did terribly.
Compared to decs & absents where there’s no real reason to assume there will be too much variation to how they are currently breaking, the postals are another story. They could be anywhere from the +7% Greens advantage in the last batch to the + 10% Labor advantage in the early batches.
They are the real wild card. Not to mention how many will be received; currently only 277 awaiting processing but another 4000 issued and not received yet. How many will come back this week? 500? 1000? 2000?
What it all really boils down to is that the Greens’ only plausible path to victory really just hinges on this: they need around 1500 postal votes that break similar to the last batch. If that happens, they can win. If that doesn’t happen, they can’t win.
Most likely scenario is that it doesn’t happen, which means the Greens fall about 100 votes short. That’s my prediction. Lock it in, Eddie – 33.5% LIB, 33.3% ALP, 33.2% GRN.
Princeplanet says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 11:45 am
Great to see Upnorth on this thread. Thanks for keeping the good feeling going throughout the election while some of the others were losing faith. We won it and Australia will be a better place for at least the next three years. Good onya cobber
中华人民共和国
Hey digger. Yeah we had a few run at the first sign of Grapeshot but we got the troops back inline. Hope Labor gets a Majority in its own right now. But PM Albo already scoring tries. All youse cobbers keep safe.
Sprocket, it’s a lot better than you think. Go Fiona!!!!
I am getting plus 351 today
I am hoping Fiona Phillips hangs on in Gilmore, so the 2022 election will end with:
Coalition gains – 0
Coalition losses – 20
AEC just ticked over Gilmore
ALP +142
Brutal absents for Constance
ALP -69.73
Lib – 30.27
Dec prepolls
ALP – 58.26
Lib – 41.74
I would say Labor now clear favourite to squeak Gilmore, especially with the Deakin evidence to support my conjecture around COVID phone voting being more favourable to progressive parties than to the right.
Do we know what votes are outstanding in Gilmore. ?
Constance has pretty obviously been too short on the Postals.
WOW! Great result in Gilmore! There are still another 1300 absents to count there too, along with 2800 dec prepolls which have been breaking 58-42 to Labor.
In addition to that, even if every issued postal envelope is returned, there’s only about 2500 of them.
Shaping up to be Labor’s 76th seat I think.
Yes, as Sprocket points out, Labor has pulled ahead in Gilmore.
And at the moment, estimates have 1346 absents, 294 provisionals (let’s assume 100 make it through scrutiny), 2824 Dec PP, and 154 postals (let’s assume another, say, 300 remaining).
By my count, that’s a gain of 531 on absents, 40 on provisionals, 466 on Dec PP, and a loss of 24 on postals for Labor.
If I had to predict, I’d say Labor will end up somewhere around 1000 ahead by the end of counting (assuming some absents and Dec PP get rejected, etc, and then factoring in covid EAV).
Sprocket at 12.02
“I am hoping Fiona Phillips hangs on in Gilmore, so the 2022 election will end with:
Coalition gains – 0
Coalition losses – 20”
+1
I had dreamed of several cross-bench additions this election. I never suspected the ‘Green wave’ in inner Brisbane.
I would have loved ALP >80, cross-bench >10, Coalition <60.
I can live with Labor 77 – here's hoping!
Hopefully absents keep up this trend in Gilmore
In the other count in Canberra, Barnaby has been boned -LittleProud Nats leader
“Xenusays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 12:25 pm
Hopefully absents keep up this trend in Gilmore”
Can say with near certainty that won’t happen.
Last election there was a relative differential of 5% to ordinary votes (~57% c/with ~43%). First batch broke almost 70%
Good thing about those breaking first is it is stress relieving
These new Gilmore votes probably won’t be representative of the rest. But the rest don’t need to be ridiculously pro Labor. So long as they just continue to break to Labor even 51:49.
Not much chance of them breaking for Constance. His family will enjoy having him around.
That’s right Ratsak
Constance now needs some highly atypical counts from here
“Trentsays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 11:55 am
Revisionist that’s true, the margins are so small that they still could shift either way.
I just meant that if votes keep breaking as they are now, it trends more to the Liberals extending their lead. So while the Greens’ chances only really hinge on there being enough votes breaking the way they are; the Liberals dropping to third would require a change in how they’re breaking.”
Trent, I think in addition to there unlikely to being significantly more postal votes, the assumption of the rest of the votes breaking in line with previous votes this election is obviously fallable
In Macnamara, Labor has so far significantly underperformed on absentees and dec prepolls compared to previous elections (i.e. relative to their ordinary vote). Worse on 3CP as they are getting a lower share of a higher micro vote.
Is it really more likely that they’ll keep breaking in line with votes counted to date than regressing back to behavior in previous elections?
As a more egregious example, taking Gilmore’s first break of abstees. It would obviously be folly to assume the rest of the absentees are more likely to break in line with those than they are with last election
Revisionist, if you read back to my previous comment, I think you’ll find that I said that I don’t think it’s likely they will keep breaking in line with recent batches 🙂
Greens should pull to within about 100-150 votes of Labor prior to the postals being factored in; and my estimate was that their result will remain around there because the postals won’t keep breaking as favourably for them as the last batch.
What I was outlining was the only path available for them to win, and I followed that with a very clear “but I don’t think it will happen”.
Geez, even when I make a post that 100% agrees with your position, and then justifies why I agree with your position, you find a way to respond that you disagree with me agreeing with you!
Trent, I am talking about absentees and dec pre polls
If Greens “pull back within about 100 to 150 votes of Labor prior to the postals being factored in” than the Greens would have outperformed the current differential on absentees and dec prepolls by my (admittedly in my head) calculations
Are you including Provisionals? The first batch in Gilmore saw 2/3rds rejected
Also, re your last line, you are taking things very personally that shouldn’t be. Please read back through my posts and ask yourself “is he really having a go at me here”?
ALP ahead in Gilmore now.
The Revisionist @ #41 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 12:51 pm
Statistically speaking, yes, it’s more likely that they’ll keep breaking in line with the votes counted so far.
Unlike postals, where the order they come in can be expected to reflect when they’re posted (and thus, at what point in the election they were cast – at least, on average), and thus could be expected to have different behaviours depending on which batch comes in, the absents and dec PP votes are basically controlled by the timing of them being sorted and sent to the correct location, and thus there is no reason to expect batches to vary in any consistent way.
There are multiple reasons to think that this election may have different behaviours to the last few elections, at least in some electorates. Covid has changed the balance of how people vote. More people vote early than ever before. This election was also a bigger swing election than any since 2007.
“slackboy72says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 1:11 pm
ALP ahead in Gilmore now.”
A bloke with a beard just made the red sea part
Snappy Tom:
“the ‘Green wave’ in inner Brisbane”
The media keep framing it as ‘inner Brisbane’, but the divisions of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan all stretch out to middle-ring, middle-Australia suburbia.
Indeed, Ryan stretches beyond Brisbane’s border into D’Aguilar National Park.
Absents are already 75-80% counted and the last 2000 broke almost identically to the first 2000, so I don’t see any reason the last 1100-1400 will break significantly differently to that now.
Declaration prepolls have less to go on because only about 35% of them have been processed so far. But still, I wouldn’t say there’s any particular reason that the 2019 flows would be more likely than the 2022 flow so far. Why wouldn’t the current trend be more likely than one from 3 years ago which had different factors, a totally different set of minor candidates, different election issues and even slightly different boundaries?
As for provisionals, there’s really not much data to project so I’m really only roughly estimating that Provisionals + Covid votes combined will wipe about another 50 off the Labor lead.
The 100-150 deficit (prior to counting postals) I quoted is after the Decs & Absents breaking like now (remember variations will only probably change that by 10-20 votes anyway), and the additional 50 votes from Provisionals + Covid which is a wild guess.
We’re talking about variations so small though, and I’m agreeing with you on the outcome anyway, is it really worth nitpicking just for the sake of it? We’re literally talking about the difference between the deficit maybe being 161 or 137 or something like that, and I’m only speaking in rough estimates as it is… Doesn’t seem to be worth the effort does it? I feel like you just don’t like it when I broadly agree with you on the outcome now, so you’re trying really hard to dig for tiny details to disagree on (“No! The Greens won’t be behind by 100-150 votes, they’ll be behind by 160 votes!”) so that you can continue arguing just for the sake of it.
“GlenOsays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 1:16 pm
The Revisionist @ #41 Monday, May 30th, 2022 – 12:51 pm
Is it really more likely that they’ll keep breaking in line with votes counted to date than regressing back to behavior in previous elections?
Statistically speaking, yes, it’s more likely that they’ll keep breaking in line with the votes counted so far.”
What does that even mean?
Do you have statistical evidence in support of this assertion?