To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:
• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.
• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.
• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.
• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.
Steelydan at 12:07 pm
12,000 hectares ? Big Gina owns 2,000,000 hectares. 12,000 hectares is 120 square kilometers so a square of a smidge under 11 km a side. In this very wide brown land that is bugger all of bugger all. Mines and their associated work would take up more area than that.
D @ #248 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 12:20 pm
I know. Let’s build one in the Solomon Islands and also build a 2000km undersea cable to bring the power to the mainland 🙂
P1: ” if you think you are insulting me”
Que? You’re basically saying you’re not insulted by being known as a liberal? That makes perfect sense. Or is it that you think someone calling you a liberal is insulting? That’s weird. Sounds to me like you’re the one with party lines on the brain fella. Maybe that’s what makes it seem like you speak out of boths sides of your mouth.
My issue was your “muh nucular” stance. Try to keep up.
P1: “Let’s build one in the Solomon Islands”
You can call it the Scott Morrison nuclear facility.
Pi @ #253 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 12:29 pm
Doubling down when you get called out is rarely a good option.
Going nuke suits the current vested interests with sunk assets (into coal / gas / distribution networks) quite well. Keeps the central generation and distribution model.
ALP are already heading towards adapting the distribution network to better suit renewables. I see that as a really powerful underlying enabler of ALL other options for power supply. Philosophically………that will provide room in the market for other players and investors. Hey…does that sound like Govt policy enabling a Free Market?? That’s one reason why the Libs and their ilk hate it. The RWNJobs who call themselves Liberals in Australia are not supporters of a Free Market….unless it suits their donors.
And with fission based nuke, its simply NOT viable in any sense unless the State (Taxpayers) takes on the risk if something goes wrong AND also assumes responsibility for decommissioning / cleanup / waste disposal and storage at end of life. Its a classic privatize profits and socialize costs situation. Libs love that.
Actually, i am not against the development of things like small, modular nukes and fusion. There are certainly niche situations where on balance they may be a better and reasonable option. But, broad scale domestic and industrial power?? Nope, we have better options.
P1: “Doubling down when you get called out is rarely a good option.”
You dropped this:
Steelydan
If all suitable roof tops were covered in solar panels then that would reduce the need to build large scale solar farms.
imacca gets it. Decentralization of energy supply is going to pour money into our regions, and reduce our depdendency upon foreign actors. Meanwhile, lower the cost of energy, and employ tens of thousands in its build. Losers? Centralized energy producers and their shareholders, and the politicians they own. Winners? Australians.
That’s why the LNP hates it.
D
Australia has more water than Europe does.
So Albanese said it was a mistake for the Voldemort comment from Plibersek and that she had done the right thing by apologising.
What does the SMH via a junior unknown nobody of a reporter paint this as?
Oh! Albo has condemned Tanya!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shouldn-t-have-said-it-anthony-albanese-condemns-tanya-plibersek-for-comparing-peter-dutton-to-voldemort-20220526-p5aons.html
Couldn’t make this stuff up!
On 2019 trends Labor looks likely to overtake the Liberal in Gilmore, no doubt there will be barely anything separating them.
Anyone know when these crucial absent and declaration votes will start getting counted?
The Voldemort comment gave Albanese a good chance to reiterate that “we’re changing the way that politics is done”
If he can maintain altitude above the fray it will be well received. The behaviour of politicians is a persistent bugbear and is kind of irrationally magnified as a concern among the general public. It’s the first thing you’ll hear them say if asked about politics.
As with the footage coming from the quad meeting, the statesmanlike appearance etc. It was a vivid indication of contrast to the mob we just kicked out.
All substantive matters aside, it just looks great.
Tanya should not have made that comment about Dutton but this is where progressives pushing causes undermine themselves.
“So Albanese said it was a mistake for the Voldemort comment from Plibersek and that she had done the right thing by apologising.”
Lol! If Tanya made a mistake…well…..its not exactly one on the scale of those made by the previous Govt is it?? Much silliness from the media, but does serve as indications and warning that the scum sucking bottom feeders among them are going to try and drive the ALP #leadershit thing. 🙁
So, literally, what are the first 3 things this new govt is going to do in terms of executive/legislative action do we think?
Spence at 12:15 pm
They ‘bury it’ impetus was because of the very long time frames of it being dangerously radioactive. There may well be at some point a decline/decay in our ‘civilisation’ such that the required technology to keep the material safe is no longer available.
The decision of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to run three times as many candidates in the House of Representatives has hidden a drop in support for the right-wing populist party.
With three-quarters of the vote counted since Saturday, One Nation has recorded a 4.9% share of the primary vote, representing a nationwide swing of 1.8% towards them. This swing, however, can be explained by its presence on the ballot for 149 seats compared with 59 in 2019.
In fact, if you compare their average primary vote per seat in each state, Pauline Hanson’s party has gone backwards. If you look at Queensland, where it ran candidates in every seat except for Kennedy (where Bob Katter is the sitting member) in both 2019 and 2022, it suffered a swing against them of 1.4%.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/26/election-result-pauline-hanson/
Imacca
Saying the otherside is worst is just politics as usual and this is why politics has a cultural problem because people are not taking ownership but making excuses.
I agree BW. It was silly school girl kind of stuff from Tanya and not what we would expect from a government minister, not this government anyway. Well done to Albo for jumping on it straight away.
Snappy Tom @ #108 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 9:49 am
Blaming Queensland for Labor not making inroads is blaming the voter for the failure of the party.
Queensland more than happily elects Labor at the state level, so it’s not that Queensland voters dislike Labor, or are particularly conservative. Qld Labor got 39.6% of the primary vote and 53.2% 2PP.
This isn’t Queensland failing Labor, or Queensland failing the country. It’s Labor failing in Queensland. So long as Labor view it as “Queensland is difficult for Labor because Queensland”, it will remain true that Labor does badly in Queensland.
And as long as the prevailing idea is that Queenslanders love Queenslander leaders, it’ll be even worse. Rudd 2013 did worse than Gillard did.
Unfortunately, I can see the argument for 2025 coming a mile away – Labor should focus on the other states, because Queensland will vote LNP due to Dutton being leader. And then Labor will do poorly in Queensland, and they’ll claim it’s proof of the claim.
Labor needs to sit down and figure out what is keeping them from actually making inroads into Queensland on the federal level.
Note that exactly the same mentality applied to WA, prior to this election. With the right motivation – it’s not like any of the leadership are from WA – we saw a huge swing to Labor in WA. And unlike in other places, most of the swing was of the form of Liberals losing voters to Labor (not to minors).
Also note that WA and Queensland are the only states that saw a primary swing to Labor. Seriously, Labor needs to sit down and figure out what the difference was.
The lot of the media is so compromised now that anything they say in regard to politics…especially taking the high ground, may be taken with consider tons of salt.
The feral nature of the media pack for the election campaign has shown this lot of for what they are…
Even Media Watch could not bring itself to go full bore and the comment was (wtte) “If you turn an election campaign into a circus you must expect clowns….” Such a comment is a cop out.
When journalists with some credibility find it necessary to apologise for this kind of behaviour says it all.
The ‘Tanya-likened-Dutton-to-an-unflattering-fictional-character’ is a bit cheap, but compared with the crap say, that FPJG had to put up with those many years ago, this is nothing.
Labor should not be frightened to use tough language…….but it is better to leave the personal stuff to the cartoonists as they do this kind of stuff the best……
Queensland Labor at a state level can cater its approach and policies in ways which suits Queensland.
Federal Labor has to think about approaches and policies which suit the whole country.
Blaming Queensland for Labor not making inroads is blaming the voter for the failure of the party.
Um, no. It’s blaming Queenslanders outside of Brisbane for being Coal Hugging Fossil Fuel Dinosaurs enough to not go with the evolving Australian zeitgeist and choose to elect harebrained idiots like Colin Boyce over quality candidates like Matt Burnett:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/26/new-coalition-mp-was-founding-member-of-club-promoting-climate-science-denial
zoomster says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 1:00 pm
“Queensland Labor at a state level can cater its approach and policies in ways which suits Queensland.
Federal Labor has to think about approaches and policies which suit the whole country.”
+1
Tricot
Albo calling Dutton a boofhead was fine and about as far as the insults should go if parliament is serious about changing its culture. Keating was expert at the cutting remark but it never went personal.
Singapore intends to join the new U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework while also supporting China’s entry into a multilateral free trade pact that does not currently include America, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told Nikkei in an exclusive interview.
Lee said Singapore wants to “nurture” links with a range of countries including Japan “and maintain a balance so that we have resilience and we are not overly dependent on any single party.”
“We can prosper together” and “enjoy the interdependence,” he told Nikkei Editor-in-Chief Tetsuya Iguchi, adding that the incentive for the city-state is “to keep the region peaceful, stable and secure.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Singapore-to-join-Biden-Indo-Pacific-pact-back-China-s-CPTPP-entry-Lee
zoomstersays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 1:00 pm
Queensland Labor at a state level can cater its approach and policies in ways which suits Queensland.
Federal Labor has to think about approaches and policies which suit the whole country.
Very good point.
Pi @ #227 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 11:56 am
Point taken on the fractures and mining. Fractures were the problem that was heavily investigated with the Yucca Mountain storage facility before it too was abandoned. Every rock has fractures and 100,000 years is a very long time, and where are we going to find a culture with level of stability? (Don’t answer.) But intriguingly the problem of fractures is where the Carlsbad idea differed. Go down a few thousand (feet) and you’re in salt, which has the property of self-healing fractures. Unfortunately it also has the problem of being inherently permeable (very slightly) and that leads us back to surface contamination after the order of a thousand years or so. (And have the Fins have solved the same problem we’re discussing or a simpler one?)
Plibersek has a touch of the Hillary’s about her.
Expat Follower @ #265 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 12:47 pm
1. FICAC
2. Aid package to the Pacific island states
3. Child Care
4. Aged Care
(I did 4 because Labor always overachieves) 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 1:03 pm
Blaming Queensland for Labor not making inroads is blaming the voter for the failure of the party.
“Um, no. It’s blaming Queenslanders outside of Brisbane for being Coal Hugging Fossil Fuel Dinosaurs enough to not go with the evolving Australian zeitgeist and choose to elect harebrained idiots like Colin Boyce over quality candidates like Matt Burnett:”
It’s QLDers that continue to choose their LNP reps and it’s these idiot PMs that represent their constituencies. The voters need to take responsibility and the fact is that they do and their proud of it. Outside SEQ, they are primarily CC deniers. Federal Labor will do better through continuing to chip away with good policy and leadership but QLDers are extremely parochial and rarely do things happen quickly here.
QLD will always be dinosaurs on CC. They need to join the 21st century.
“And as long as the prevailing idea is that Queenslanders love Queenslander leaders, it’ll be even worse. Rudd 2013 did worse than Gillard did.”
This is simple minded nonsense. Kevin Rudd came back with three months to go to save the furniture. Seriously, you have undermined your argument making a comment like this. Realistically Rudd did well to save six seats after Queensland was ready to annihilate Labor under Julia Gillard.
Gillard lost 8 seats in Queensland in 2010 that Rudd won in 2007. It crippled the partys fortunes in terms of longevity in a federal Labor government.
I agree though Labor doesn’t have to have a Queenslander as Prime Minister to do well in Queensland though. Bob Hawke won half or more the seats in Queensland in his third election in 1987 which Labor roughly maintained the numbers of Queensland seats until its defeat in 1996.
Steelydan says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 12:07 pm
…
12000 hectares of land must be cleared with nothing ever growing back. I know this country it is not desert. To give you some idea of size Melbourne’s CBD is 640 hectares
The CBD is a lot less than 640 hectares, 12000 hectares is less than 35 KM * 35 KM. Wouldn’t even make a farm in the area it is being built.
steve davis @ #282 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 1:11 pm
It’s the federal taxpayers that subsidise them in times of extreme drought and flood.
Pi @ #240 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 12:10 pm
The final slide says it nicely, “Good luck”.
malcolm @ #145 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 10:41 am
So….28% x 3 years = government in only 84 years! Magic happens. 😀
Cronus @ #281 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 1:10 pm
Yep. Work around them until they are left marooned. (See what I did there? 😉 )
C@T
I luv a pun.
And you’re spot on, in the end, inevitability will overtake us.
First 3 things in terms of executive action by Labor:
1. Added Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags to briefing room.
2. Confirmed big four accounting firms and Accenture would be excluded from policy of cuts to consultants in public service .
3. Confirmed a review would be commissioned to tell it what to do about the Reserve Bank and monetary policy
porotisays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 12:25 pm
Steelydan at 12:07 pm
12,000 hectares ? Big Gina owns 2,000,000 hectares. 12,000 hectares is 120 square kilometers so a square of a smidge under 11 km a side. In this very wide brown land that is bugger all of bugger all. Mines and their associated work would take up more area than that.
——————————————————————————
Wow how uniformed are you!!! “Mines and their associated work would take up more area than that.” All the coals mines in Australia would not take up 12 000 hectares. Some very productive coal mines are very small. That is crazy how little you know of coal mining. I repeat all the coal mines in Australia would not take as much land as 12000 hectares. WOW
Player One @ #207 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 9:41 am
Why is it you always seem to favour the most illogical and difficult option?
malcolm says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 10:41 am
The Liberals just conceded they have lost the seat of Ryan to the Greens.
The Greens in state and federal elections have now won seats from the Liberals,Labor and Nationals and have a very strong and growing voting base among the 18 to 39 year old demographic.
I estimate on the basis of this demographic alone the Greens will increase their vote by about 1% every 3 years.
——————–
Politics does not work like that.
People making these kind of predictions are falling into the trap of not really understanding the result because while the Greens have scored an historic win that they should be proud off but most seats return to their normal voting patterns but the result that should excite the Greens is the big swing in Cooper a ALP seat held by Ged Kearney when they are going into government is something to watch going forward.
“2. Confirmed big four accounting firms and Accenture would be excluded from policy of cuts to consultants in public service .”
Really?
“0 of 151 House of Representatives seats have been declared.”
imacca @ #264 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 12:46 pm
Could have been worse – it could have been, God help us – a gaffe!
The Revisionist
Yes and its kind of understandable and its not a problem if their use is kept to a supportive role.
“Mexicanbeemersays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 1:28 pm
The Revisionist
Yes and its kind of understandable and its not a problem if their use is kept to a supportive role”
Have you got a link?
yup revisionist, Gallagher confirmed this morning
80% of that promise lasted less than 5 days !
porotisays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 12:25 pm
For someone who comments so much in this area you are woefully ignorant. How big do you think a coal mine is…..you obviously have no idea. Even the largest coal mines may remove a 5 to 6 football fields of ground per year and 25 years later that land has been revegetated.
Now I am no fan of coal mines but solar on the level needed to power cities uses much much more land than a coal mine to power a city and it must be clear felled with no trees ever returning.