Week zero

The Coalition prepares to choose or confirm leaders, Section 44 rears its head once again, and a look at the aggregate two-party preferred numbers.

To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:

• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.

• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.

• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.

• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,000 comments on “Week zero”

Comments Page 1 of 60
1 2 60
  1. I was just looking at Deborah O’Neill’s Wikipedia entry. I’m not sure what attribute puts her ahead of KK or Jenny McAllister?

  2. British Electoral Politics

    Scottish Independence Voting Intention:

    YES: 38% (-1)
    NO: 46% (+2)
    Undecideds: 11% (-2)

    Undecideds Excluded:

    NO: 55% (+2)
    YES: 45% (-2)

    Via @YouGov
    On 18-23 May, Changes w/ 29-31 March.

  3. This is unfortunately Niki Savva’s last column for the SMH for a while as she’s writing a book. It seems fitting that she has signed off with this highly descriptive quote from a former Vic Liberal party official.

    You could hear the nails being hammered into the coffins of Liberal MPs from coast to coast, north to south. Bragg, a leading moderate, says the strategy was wrong ethically and politically, and the party needs to advocate modern economic and social liberalism to win back liberals.

    Victorian Liberals former deputy state director Tony Barry predicted during the campaign that Morrison’s strategy of sacrificing the Liberal heartland, including his deputy Frydenberg, to court the religious right would either mark him as a genius or political roadkill.

    “In the end he wasn’t just political roadkill, they reversed back over the body and drove over it again,” Barry told me.

    There are many reasons why Morrison lost, why the women rebelled and why Albanese defied history and the doubters to prevail, all of which I hope to explore further in a book to be published by Scribe. Unfortunately, that means this will be my last column for a while, but I will be back writing for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Thank you for your feedback, good and bad.


  4. England’s water companies paid £57 bn in dividends between 1991 and 2019

    ‘Water companies in England paid an average of £2 bn a year to their shareholders since they were privatised thirty years ago … Dividends paid amount to £57 bn from 1991 to 2019, almost half the amount spent towards maintenance and enhancement of water infrastructure over that time’


  5. Savva:

    “You could hear the nails being hammered into the coffins of Liberal MPs from coast to coast”

    And now you can hear their nails scraping on the floorboards as they dig in against being dragged back towards the centre.

    Savva’s book will be a rip-roaring read.

  6. This is a very interesting read, and something a few of us were discussing last week and the week before. I often said this election felt like 2007, and perhaps this result is what the 2007 result should’ve heralded: an end of Howardism.

    As the results rolled in it was difficult to grasp: the Liberals of the 2020s, eerily like the Soviet communists of the 1980s, were suddenly an anachronism. Like the Politburo, they too had become entrapped within their fervent ideologies and grown so distant from reality that they lost the moral legitimacy to govern. Power was now haemorrhaging away in a death agony of lost seats.

    Morrison was widely credited as the architect of this annihilation. But perhaps he was no more than the sinister final act of a larger story that began decades earlier when John Howard was elected prime minister in 1996.

    Of all Australian prime ministers, it is Howard who can rightly claim to be the most transformative, reshaping the nation so completely that, other than a Labor interregnum of six years, it has been conservative governments largely in his image ever since. Every issue that defined Morrison’s downfall had deep roots in Howard’s prime ministership.


  7. Hopefully we get a docuseries from ABC on the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison years. Think it could be fascinating, and a lot of the players have left politics, either voluntarily or otherwise, so they’re more likely to participate.

  8. If you’ve ever wondered what happens to election corflutes post-election.

    A spokesperson for Mr Sharma said they used T-shirts from the 2018 by-election but their corflutes were new.

    Mr Sharma was defeated by independent Allegra Spender at the weekend, and the spokesperson said any corflutes featuring his face or name would be donated to local schools and childcare centres, where the white reverse side could be used to mount artworks.


  9. Former foreign affairs minister Marise Payne ignored warnings from Australian diplomats in the UK that quarantine caps imposed by the federal and state governments would leave thousands of Australians stranded overseas and in financial difficulty in the middle of a pandemic.

    Documents obtained by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age show the minister was explicitly told by the then-high commissioner to the UK and her former cabinet colleague, George Brandis, and consular officials that the caps had created “perverse market incentives” that would cost the average family $60,000 to get home.

    This did not include the thousands of dollars in extra quarantine costs imposed by state governments when they began requiring all persons coming from overseas to undergo mandatory hotel quarantine to stamp out any circulation of COVID-19.


  10. First it was Morrison who claimed if he was re-elected he would be a new kinder and gentler leader , now Dutton is repeating the same.

    It didn’t work out for Morrison , can not see how it is going to work for Dutton

  11. Some parties do have ’em:

    The new federal MP for the Queensland seat of Flynn was a founding member of a club formed to promote climate science denial, and was a signatory to an international statement claiming “there is no climate emergency”.

    Colin Boyce did not respond to questions as to whether he is still a member of the Saltbush Club, a group which published commentary during the election campaign that said the climate crisis is “a fraud”.

    He would not say whether he still supported the “world climate declaration”, which he signed in 2019 alongside figures such as Ian Plimer. At the time he was the only Australian MP – state or federal – to publicly support the document, which repeats long-debunked talking points on climate change that are contradicted by scientific institutions and academies around the world.

    Boyce, a one-time boilermaker who resigned as a Queensland MP to run for the federal parliament, shot to prominence during the election campaign when he said the Coalition’s net zero pledge was “flexible” and left “wiggle room”.

    A search of Queensland Hansard showed that in his four and a half years in state parliament Boyce repeatedly criticised and rejected climate science.

    In a 2019 speech, Boyce claimed that pollution-prevention measures in the Great Barrier Reef catchment were “based on flawed, manipulated science that is driven by a socialist political agenda”.


    And Peter Dutton is going to have to answer for this guy. He’s from Queensland and Dutton would have known him and approved his candidacy.

  12. What a madhouse. This guy’s daughter was killed in 2018 in yet another mass shooting at a US school. His solution for this gun madness………
    Andrew Pollack@AndrewPollackFL
    -Armed guard
    -Single point of entry
    -Teacher training

    We send out $Billions to other countries all the time. Why not fund school safety in America?
    10:13 am · 25 May 2022·Twitter for iPhone

  13. poroti @ #25 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 7:25 am

    What a madhouse. This guy’s daughter was killed in 2018 in yet another mass shooting at a US school. His solution for this gun madness………
    Andrew Pollack@AndrewPollackFL
    -Armed guard
    -Single point of entry
    -Teacher training

    We send out $Billions to other countries all the time. Why not fund school safety in America?
    10:13 am · 25 May 2022·Twitter for iPhone

    As my son pointed out to me. A killer with mass murder on their mind takes out the guard before the guard even knows what’s going on, unless they’re going to patrol in full body armour head to toe then a head shot will do that, walks through the single point of entry that no one can escape from easily now, then takes out the teacher before an alarm can even be raised and does what he wants to do anyway.

    * My son plays Fortnite and Call of Duty

  14. Saltbush Club has a list of 313 founding members who were willing to have their names made public…


    Boyces’ “bio”:

    “I am a qualified boiler maker and worked as a high pressure pipe welder in the gas industry for several years. I have a small engineering business, mainly concerned with heavy plate welding. I also have a small earthmoving business and was principal earthmoving contractor to Xstrata coal and dug the first test pit to recover a coal sample at their mine project at Wandoan, now owned by Glencore.

    Colin and his wife Terri have a 5,000 ha cattle and farming operation at Taroom. They run about 2,000 cattle, and farm 800 ha of fodder crops.

    “These businesses are run and managed by my wife and family. My wife and daughter are both qualified accountants, my sons are both qualified boiler makers.

    “What we would call western culture, has been provided by two basic principles – Christian values and capitalism. If we undermine these principles we will lose society as we know it.

    “This is exactly what the U.N., the I.P.C.C. and others are trying to do with their socialist climate change agenda.”

    Right at home in the “modern” Liberal National Party.

  15. “Morrison’s strategy of sacrificing the Liberal heartland, including his deputy Frydenberg, to court the religious right would either mark him as a genius or political roadkill.”

    The selection of Deves was an act of rank stupidity worthy of the Lying Rodent. Howard & his manipulating wife planted the seeds of Liberal doom.

    The footage of Mondays 4 Corners is worth rewatching to see Morrison’s happy clappy revival meeting with Deves in attendance… if you want to see the shear terror of impending road kill in someone’s eyes.
    Morrison is a low act, orders of magnitude worse than Abbott.

  16. Surely “single point of entry” isn’t achievable for most schools. Someone with intent is going to find it easy to create other access points.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 7:22 am
    Some parties do have ’em:

    C@t, but , but, he has a hat, so he must be worthy of their votes!

  18. Looking at the new member for Flynn and knowing a bit about his history you’d have to say the Qld LNP sends some real dills to Canberra, but also the electors of this area have some questions to answer. Freya is living in Disneyland if he/ she thinks these guys are going to sweep back in in three years.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Extensive and rich pickings today!

    Unless Liberals heed the lessons from the complete repudiation on Saturday of Scott Morrison’s style of leadership and governing, then they are destined to spend a long time in opposition, writes Niki Savva. This will be her last column for a while, during which time she will be writing another book.
    Shane Wright reports that Jim Chalmers has warned Australians they will face real financial pain as interest rates rise to deal with “skyrocketing” inflation while revealing unexpected spending pressures baked into the budget by the previous government.
    On the same presser, the AFR tells us that Jim Chalmers has warned that the dire budget position and “skyrocketing” inflation mean the Labor government cannot afford extra spending beyond its election commitments, as he accused the Morrison government of failing to disclose all the budget pressures.
    Anthony Albanese has some tough economic problems on his plate says Greg Jericho who explains seven of them. Frightening!
    In what is quite a reasonable contribution, Annabel Crabbe writes that Australian voters took their rage and despair to the ballot box, and major parties can no longer take them for granted.
    The Morrison government’s fall marks the end of the Howard-era ascendancy, asserts Richard Flanagan. A good read.
    “This is a Liberal bloodbath, all losses to our left. Shifting right would bring us an eternity in opposition”, writes Dave Sharma in this op-ed.
    For contrast to the above, and for amusement, here is Peta Credlin’s call to the Liberal Party to return to its first principles.
    John Warhurst opines that the Liberal Party must rethink its coalition arrangement with the National Party if it wants to survive. He says treating the Coalition as one party is so embedded into political discussion in Australia that it impedes useful discussion. He makes a lot of sense.
    Peter Dutton will be elected unchallenged, but the debate will go on for divided Liberals over their direction under a new conservative leader, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Ronald Mizen tells us that, from having a no-booze campaign office, to a ‘no dickheads’ recruitment policy, Labor insiders say the party’s national secretary Paul Erickson and Anthony Albanese’s chief-of-staff Tim Gartrell put together the perfect campaign team.
    Peter Dutton has promised that Australians will see another side of his character as opposition leader, arguing the Liberal Party is the natural champion of families, small business and aspirational workers across the ­nation’s cities, suburbs and regions, writes The Australian’s Joe Kelly.
    In this assessment of the election and where the Liberal party stands, Amanda Vanstone says, “It’s probably irrelevant, but I think Albanese is one of the nicest people, if not the nicest person, we’ve had as Prime Minister in a long time. It’s not a qualification for the job, but it might rub off.”
    Peter Dutton has confirmed he will stand as Liberal leader and is all but certain to win the ballot. But he has a mountain to climb, writes James Massola. He says Dutton is promising to bring together moderate and conservative wings fractured by the election loss and vowing to take the fight to Labor on the economy.
    The Nationals’ vote for a leader next week looms as one of the most significant for the country party, which can either veer further to the right or circle back to the centre of the political landscape, says Mike Foley.
    Defeated and returning Liberal MPs have both blamed Scott Morrison’s unpopularity for the federal election loss, but are split on whether and how to shift policy to win next time, writes Paul Karp who says conservatives including Stuart Robert and Luke Howarth think the party can win with a new leader while maintaining centre-right policies.
    Where do they FIND them? Ben Smee tells us about the new federal MP for the Queensland seat of Flynn, who was a founding member of a club formed to promote climate science denial, and was a signatory to an international statement claiming “there is no climate emergency”.
    Steggall and Pocock prove sport and politics do mix … and there’s more to come, declares Peter FitzSimons.
    Katherine Murphy reports that Australia’s former intelligence chief Duncan Lewis has said Australia has been “rather louder than we should have been” in public criticism of China when a better approach, given escalating regional tensions, should have been “speak softly and carry a big stick”.
    Senior NSW Liberals have debunked claims the party’s failed candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, was hand-picked by Scott Morrison because her views on transgender people could lure votes from religious conservatives in western Sydney seats, writes Brad Norrington.
    Dana Daniel tells us that Anthony Albanese will soon convene the first meeting of national cabinet under a Labor government, as state and territory leaders prepare to demand action to fix their health systems.
    New Aboriginal Affairs Minister Linda Burney says she will not be deterred by fears the Greens could derail the Voice process over disagreements on the details.
    Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie have high profiles but Senate numbers are moving against their ability to have significant clout when Parliament resumes, explains Andrew Tillett.
    Zoe Daniel in this op-ed in the AFR explains why voters turned to the teals.
    Alexandra Smith writes about Dai Le, the perfect female Liberal candidate – rejected by the NSW Liberals.
    Matthew Knott explains why Kristina Keneally’s parachute failed, and Andrew Charlton’s worked.
    Tony Wright gives Albanese a tick for his visit to Japan and provides plenty of contrast to how Morrison has been seen while overseas.
    The AFR editorial says Anthony Albanese’s bipartisan backing of the Quad is a confidence-building start by a prime minister from the Socialist Left once associated with Labor’s Midnight Oil wing.
    While we should not yet abandon hope for a more realistic, nuanced and sophisticated China policy under the Labor government, Prime Minister Albanese’s initial statements from Tokyo in response to an overture from PRC Prime Minister Li Keqiang are not encouraging, posits Stephen Fitzgerald.
    France’s ambassador to Australia has declared the former Morrison government was widely seen as “refusing to take responsibility” to act on the climate crisis, suggesting the Albanese government’s new policy will help repair trust, reports Daniel Hurst.
    Australian Border Force did not issue press releases about any of the five boat interceptions it made in the four years prior to its controversial election-day announcement that a vessel had been detected near Christmas Island, prompting further questions about the political independence of the agency. The ABF is investigating its election-day conduct, which the acting prime minister, Richard Marles, has described as a “disgrace”.
    The first review of the Reserve Bank in almost four decades could be signed off within weeks as the federal government goes ahead with a key pre-election pledge to examine its handling of monetary policy and how it interacts with the federal budget, reports Shane Wight.
    With a change of government in Canberra, inevitably comes the scramble among well-connected lobbying firms to get into the ears of incoming ministers on behalf of their well-paying clients, write Noel Towell and Helen Pitt.
    Australia’s new Labor government is committed to a transition to clean energy and a cut in emissions of 43% by 2030. But the MP touted to become the new energy minister is giving forthright backing to the oil and gas industries, reports Callum Foote.
    Latika Bourke tells us that a new document shows Australia’s high commissioner to the UK explicitly warned the foreign affairs minister that quarantine caps would leave citizens stranded.
    The NSW corruption watchdog will hold public hearings to examine whether three former councillors accepted benefits as inducements to approve property developments in Sydney’s south. There are those two words that so often appear in close proximity to each other – developers and councillors.
    Lucy Carroll reports that At least 500 more triple zero calls are being made each day to NSW Ambulance than before the pandemic, prompting paramedics to warn that lives are at risk as demand outstrips available resources.
    Dutton’s campaign to sue detractors failed to factor in vagaries of defamation law, writes Richard Ackland.
    HESTA’s plan to vote against the demerger looks like it could be a tipping point for AGL and Mike Cannon-Brookes, says Elizabeth Knight.
    Australia’s social housing system is critically stressed, and many eligible applicants simply give up, explains Hal Pawson.
    Boris Johnson has emerged damaged and apologetic following the publication of a damning report into a culture of drinking and illegal partying at Downing Street during the pandemic, writes Rob Harris who says Johnson is facing fresh leadership speculation.
    The EU is about to end its aggressive eight-year experiment with unconventional monetary policies. The dramatic shift creates the potential for a lot of problems, warns Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    The Pentecostal Church’s Seven Mountains Mandate is an affront to democracy and a danger to society, writes Bilal Cleland.
    Read this and weep! Salvador Ramos, 18, used an AR-15-style semi-automatic rifle in the bloodbath on Tuesday at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. He had legally bought two such rifles just days before, soon after his birthday. Nothing to see here!
    Nick O’Malley reflects upon his family’s time in America, where his two-year-old was taught how to shelter from gun massacres.
    The United States is a great country, but it has shocking flaws, none more damaging than its failure to control gun violence says the SMH editorial which states that the US must cure itself of its sick gun obsession.
    Farrah Tomalin reports that Joe Biden has asked America, “Why are we willing to live with this carnage?”
    Arming teachers will only make US school shootings worse, argues Rick Sarre.
    Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia has easily dispatched Donald Trump’s hand-picked challenger in a Republican primary that demonstrated the limits of the former president and his conspiracy-fuelled politics in a critical swing state.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Matt Golding

    Andrew Dyson

    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Dionne Gain

    Leak – with an amazing depiction of Dutton!

    From the US

  20. C@tmomma at 7:32 am
    The obvious solution is to turn schools into maximum security zones, make helmets and bullet proof vests part of all school uniforms and all teachers being recruited from retiring Special Forces members. It’s the way to go yeeee haw.

  21. Jan says:
    Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 7:39 am
    Surely “single point of entry” isn’t achievable for most schools. Someone with intent is going to find it easy to create other access points.

    The high school I taught at for many years has no fencing what so ever. You could walk into it from any direction, some of them from the cover of thick vegetation. I don’t believe the NSW DoE has any plan to rectify this and really, it has never been a security issue. We are a small country town, we aren’t the USA , and we have reasonably good gun laws…I’ve always wondered what could eventuate though.

  22. And…. is this the right thread to boast about getting the 2PP right? 2Pp is the headline (the rolls Royce) of the competition, the rest are just wild guesses.

  23. as a labor member we need to stop promoating mps to shadow cabenit based on factions in stead of merit Don farrell has contributed litle to senat good in premoating mps such as rishworth and new Sa premier mallinusccas isinpresive former shoppies union bos but oniel is not overly inpresive kk or mckalaster should of got top spot lallich andmosilmaine need to go

  24. During the 80s politics was all about capturing the centre ground, has Australia really changed so much that the LNP thinks they can win with a far right agenda? Freya thinks so, I’m not so sure.

  25. one of the first deccitions albanese and wong will have to make will who will replace jorje brandisss as hicomitioner to uk he quietly resigned in may saying it was the right thing to do after being a political appointment most likely because wong would sack him stephin smith would be a goood puick also for us or conroy could all ways give it or gg to juley bishop

  26. The obvious solution is to turn schools into maximum security zones,
    Move schools to military bases and military bases to schools.

  27. Princeplanet @ #31 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 7:41 am

    Looking at the new member for Flynn and knowing a bit about his history you’d have to say the Qld LNP sends some real dills to Canberra, but also the electors of this area have some questions to answer. Freya is living in Disneyland if he/ she thinks these guys are going to sweep back in in three years.

    I have a theory about Queensland’s results and their voters. They must have decided that they would be the bulwark that saw the Coalition elected again, so until you got down to SE Queensland where the results differed markedly, it was all as it was in 2019, and now it seems with the election of out and proud Global Heating idiots like Colin Boyce, worse. I imagine they, Matt Canavan and Colin Boyce and the Coal club, planned some sort of force majeure move on the Liberals, especially wrt Net Zero by 2050 commitments, if the Coalition had been returned and so they laid the groundwork for that during the campaign. Evil bastards.

  28. Thanks BK

    Interesting to note that Dutton’s primary vote dropped 4% and he won the 2PP by only 52-48. Not a strong start for the new leader of the Opposition I wouldn’t have thought.

  29. Aaron newton @ #40 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 7:48 am

    one of the first deccitions albanese and wong will have to make will who will replace jorje brandisss as hicomitioner to uk he quietly resigned in may saying it was the right thing to do after being a political appointment most likely because wong would sack him stephin smith would be a goood puick also for us or conroy could all ways give it or gg to juley bishop

    Yes, Stephen Smith or Julia Gillard to the UK. Kevin07 to China. Steve Bracks to the USA. I’d like to see Greg Combet make a comeback too. Maybe to France as that is his heritage.

  30. In the US, school janitors to be armed with NLAWs so they can take out a shooter before they even step out of their vehicle? Just a thought…………

Comments Page 1 of 60
1 2 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *