To allow for a separate thread for the late election counting, which can be found here, here goes my first post-election summary of relevant news to kick off a general discussion thread. Which is naturally less easy to do now that there are no polls or election horse race scuttlebutt to relate. Here’s what I’ve managed:
• Peter Dutton now appears certain to be elected unopposed as the new Liberal leader at the first meeting of the party room after the election winners have been confirmed. There appears to be strong support for the notion that the deputy position should go to a woman, names mentioned including Karen Andrews, Bridget Archer, Sussan Ley, Anne Ruston and Jane Hume. There were some suggestions that Andrews might seek the leadership, together with Dan Tehan, although it always seemed clear Dutton had the numbers.
• The Nationals party room will meet on Tuesday, which could see a challenge to Barnaby Joyce’s leadership from David Littleproud or Michael McCormack. However, the ABC reports it has been put to McCormack that it would be preferable to have a “fresh start”. Mike Foley of the Age/Herald reports Keith Pitt might put his name forward on the “off chance” that Joyce declines to stand, positioning himself as the heir to Joyce’s skepticism on net zero carbon emissions.
• Following her win over Labor’s Kristina Keneally as an independent for Fowler, it has been noted that Dai Le asserted on her Section 44 checklist as part of her nomination for the election that she had never been a citizen or subject of a country other than Australia. Queried by The Australian, constitutional law expert Anne Twomey offered the inuitively obvious point that this seemed unlikely given she was born in Vietnam in 1968 and remained there until her family fled in 1975. However, while a nomination may be rejected if a prospective candidate does not complete the checklist and provide supporting documentation is required, it would not appear a nomination is retrospectively invalidated if the information provided was later shown to be incomplete. The sole point at issue is whether Le does in fact have Vietnamese citizenship, which would appear unlikely based on the account of Sydney barrister Dominic Villa.
• The projections of both the ABC and myself are that Labor will win the final two-party preferred count by 51.8-48.2, from a swing to Labor of 3.3%. This is derived from two-candidate preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition in seats where one is available and estimates of other parties’ preference flows where they are not. I have Labor winning by 51.3-48.7 in New South Wales, a swing of 3.0%; 53.9-46.1 in Victoria, a swing of 0.8%; the Coalition winning 54.3-45.7 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of 4.1%; Labor winning 54.7-45.3 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.2% (their first win in the state since 1987 and best result since 1983); 53.9-46.1 in South Australia, a swing of 3.2%; and 53.8-46.2 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 2.1%.
“Oliver Suttonsays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 9:14 am
“And QLD didn’t surprise me. I am very disappointed with the way they voted but it is true to their form.”
Queensland did surprise me, as a lifelong Queenslander. And I am very delighted with the way they voted.
I recall a conversation here a few weeks back about reports that the LNP was in trouble in the ostensibly blue-ribbon Ryan: did that mean that Labor or the Greens were in contention? That question was answered decisively last Saturday.
Welcome to Greensland.”
Probably couldn’t present as a parody of an absurd Green if you tried.
The Greens won two and maybe 3 seats in Queensland. The LNP retain 21 of 30 seats….that’s 70% of all seats. You’re proud of that carve up?
Thankfully, the Labor party has electorally defeated an appalling reactionary government because the rest of the country awarded with 7 in 12 of the remaining electorates to compensate for Queensland
If the rest of the country voted like Queensland the Greens would have 15 seats and we would be looking at reactionary government for decades to come ripping down everything Labor has built in this country. This would be good?
Thankfully, instead we have a majority Labor government that can build on its profound legacy
On twitter
President Barack Obama said if he could take three things from Australia they would be our Health System, Compulsory voting and our gun laws.
Andrew @ #54 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 8:17 am
And worst Deputy PM as well.
Thanks for the roundup BK, with some excellent pieces in there.
The puff pieces to soften Dutton’s image are almost comical. Meanwhile the damage he has done in office is barely fully apparent as Labor start to pick up the pieces in Defence and Foreign Affairs.
Speaking of dubious dealings with defence and security, press releases do not issue themselves. Whoever issued the election day press release on a boat arrival was breaking the law if a public servant, or breaking the caretaker convention if a politician.
If I were to make a list of the Canberra department heads Labor would be wise to replace as likely to be partisand and opposed to it, the head of Border force would be close to the top
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/26/border-force-broke-with-recent-convention-when-it-sent-election-day-release-about-boat-arrival
Boerwar: I guess as someone who lives in the Brisbane it’s just as hard for me to understand what motivates someone in far off Gladstone, Mackay, Rockhampton or Townsville. But to a lot of these people Brisbane might as well be Melbourne.
“As to what got her ahead of KK, you’ll need to ask the NSW Right.”
“Nothing as nefarious as that.”
Wasn’t meaning to suggest anything nefarious – just noting that it was a decision of the faction. Whether it was a good, bad or indifferent decision I have neither insight nor opinion.
Fun fact: the ALP 2PP for the ‘nation outside Qld’ is shaping as about 53.2%.
Of 121 seats in the ‘nation outside Qld,’ Labor are likely to hold 71 or 72.
Qld, state of denial.
Sammy J perspective still holds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAMnSxCmgYY
For those claiming Labor’s climate policy is adequate …
https://michaelwest.com.au/cocktail-talk-labor-struts-both-sides-of-street-on-energy-as-madelaine-king-mooted-for-gas-ministry/
The article also points out where APPEA’s money goes. No prizes for guessing that it goes almost equally to Liberal and Labor.
Since their win, Labor is loudly trumpeting that their climate policies are better than the COALition. But either they have not understood the science, or (more likely) have simply chosen to pretend their policies are supported by it, when they are clearly not.
Labor seem to be hoping that if they say so often enough and loudly enough, the electorate will simply believe them. But the Teals and Greens will ensure this is not going to happen. Labor has so far failed to learn the lesson of this election.
Bludging says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 8:46 am
Morrison has shown what happens when leading MPs set out to control preselections.
_____
thank god this doesn’t happen in Labor.
Socrates
The puff pieces to soften Dutton’s image are almost comical. Meanwhile the damage he has done in office is barely fully apparent as Labor start to pick up the pieces in Defence and Foreign Affairs.
————
I do so hope that the last government’s abject failures in foreign affairs and defence planning and spending are thoroughly revealed.
As we are nearing the end of counting it seems only fair to point out the leaders in the guessing game. (I will also post this on the ongoing polling thread.)
PB GUESSING GAME, May-21 17:06
TPP (FINAL)
71 Respondents
ALP / LNP
51.8 / 48.2 Actual (William Bowe’s forecast)
53.0 / 47.0 Median
53.2 / 46.8 Mode
53.1 / 46.9 Mean
55.4 / 49.0 Max
51.0 / 44.6 Min
LIKELY WINNERS (per the forecast)
51.9 / 48.1 Lars Von Trier (May-15 18:46)
51.9 / 48.1 Sandman (May-16 20:15)
51.9 / 48.1 Seadog (May-19 22:19)
51.9 / 48.1 The Silver Bodgie (May-21 13:21)
“Sometimes people like to change the curtains, because they just like to change the curtains.” https://t.co/yFerbtNdhj
“Sometimes people like to change the kitty-litter, because they just don’t like the smell of cat pee.”
Martin B @ #107 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 9:48 am
SDA donations.
Well, looks like conventions have held up – more or less – this time around…
The TPP has fallen into the frequent 52-48 band…
The side with the most votes in the TPP formed government.
The swings to the winning party were patchy – but apart from one State – Tassie and the far north of Queensland – the mood was for change….(Interesting that Deep North and the Deep South went the way they did) was on. It seems other than the two areas above, the swing to Labor was more in keeping with 53-47….
Labor was able to get seats all over the place but some states (WA) had more seats available to Labor than say Victoria…North Queensland might be worth Labor’s attention next time around
The opinion polls did not work so well in picking up the flood of votes/seats to Independents and the Greens.
All this has lead the sour-grapers on the losing side to calling for moves to First Past the Post Voting…
Good luck with that…………………………
Scott @ #18 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 6:49 am
I’m catching up slowly, but I agree. I snorted when I saw the published smiling family pics.
The goldfish metaphor doesn’t work. Dutton has carefully crafted his public image (which to be fair is all most of us have) and it’s not a nice one. And by repetition over a long time he made sure that image is embedded. Who hasn’t he angered or disgusted? He might get some back but most opinions are set, firmly.
There was some banter here a few months ago about who the next leader of the opposition might be. Dutton was discussed and rejected because “even the Liberals aren’t that dumb” or wtte. Yet here we are, as they say.
Inside Lib HQ:
Dutton: “We have to find a female deputy. Any ideas, Baldrick?”
Baldrick: “What we need is another “loyal girl” ..like Julie”
Dutton: “Sounds like you have another cunning plan.”
Baldrick: “Jane Hume would make a good loyal girl, Sire.”
Dutton: “BRILLIANT”
“Labor has so far failed to learn the lesson of this election.”
Labor – 76 to 78 seats
Teals – 8 seats
Greens – 3 to 4 seats
????
Dumb dumb dumb derpity derp derp
“Late Risersays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 9:51 am
As we are nearing the end of counting it seems only fair to point out the leaders in the guessing game. (I will also post this on the ongoing polling thread.)”
I would wait for the actual 2PP count. Labor will end up above 52 after the suite of Teal Blue seats are counted on a 2PP basis
LVT succeeds Nostradamus in reliable election predictions.
Looks the beginning of a trend
>Snappy Tom
>Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 9:39 am
>…
>Key question: can Labor both manage the economy well (probably) and BE
>SEEN to be managing the economy well (much more difficult, given the
>biased media environment)?
There is a cultural memory in the Australian media that the Liberal party is the better manager of the economy. Labor will need to adopt the mantra, to be reiterated as a preface to any answer on questions relating to finance: “we have inherited a structural deficit and a trillion dollars of debt from the Liberal party … gross economic mismanagement under the Liberal party…”
This will need to continue for three or six years, until journalists are so used to it and sick of it that they start prefacing their questions with “we’ve heard you say over the years that the Liberal party are not good economic managers, but …” At which point that cultural memory will have been destroyed.
I see DimTim Smith has emerged from hiding to attack the Teal writing a piece for Spectator Oz headlined “The teals: loud, entitled and rich.”
Just lacking a touch of self-awareness perhaps. 😆
“Omar Comin’says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 10:14 am
>Snappy Tom
>Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 9:39 am
>…
>Key question: can Labor both manage the economy well (probably) and BE
>SEEN to be managing the economy well (much more difficult, given the
>biased media environment)?
There is a cultural memory in the Australian media that the Liberal party is the better manager of the economy. Labor will need to adopt the mantra, to be reiterated as a preface to any answer on questions relating to finance: “we have inherited a structural deficit and a trillion dollars of debt from the Liberal party …the gross economic mismanagement Liberal party…”
This will need to continue for three or six years, until journalists are so used to it and sick of it that they start prefacing their questions with “we’ve heard you say over the years that the Liberal party are not good economic managers, but …” At which point that cultural memory will have been destroyed.”
The problem though is this is a global phenomenon – i.e. centre right parties show up in polling as better economic managers despite in some cases appalling records.
I see the Liberals think their product is still OK..
..just need to tweak the marketing, but..
Samantha Maiden
Scott Morrison: I could become an Uber driver | https://t.co/gDNpzYxxNi — Australia’s leading news site https://t.co/BzbEPJVMRc
Fun Fact: Labor Won
The MSM (especially the ABC) will need time to get over their Stockholm Syndrome, lots of weird shit is going to be said and done (maybe for ages to come if the SkySnooze 1000 day Progrom survives), Howardism is dead, and we have a reason to travel overseas (if we can) without substituting a Kiwi flag for the Oz version on our luggage.
Good times!
Rex Douglas @ #114 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 10:01 am
Grow up, Rex Douglas! Or are you anti union? Or only unions that get your tick of approval? 🙄
Thank you Shellbell.
I thought I did ok.
I picked 78 seats to Labor and a result by 3.25 pm yesterday and the 2PP figure quoted. I think the time of result still counts because majority govt hasn’t been called yet – although should today. I am likely to fall 1 or 2 short on the seat figure.
I acknowledged missing the teal and green seat pick ups but I did call out Fowler as a Smokey but I thought KK might hold on with prefs. I thought Griffith was a good chance to the Greens and I thought teals would be a couple of seats not 6.
Still you can never pick ‘em exactly.
Dog’s Brunch @ #126 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 10:20 am
I keep wondering what Sky will do once the 1000 days is up and nothing has changed? 😆
Victoria says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 9:41 am
On twitter
President Barack Obama said if he could take three things from Australia they would be our Health System, Compulsory voting and our gun laws.
—————-
Obama should add a fourth an independent electoral commission to set boundaries and run elections.
In your Guts you know Duts Nuts.
Jan @ #29 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 7:39 am
Why bother? Single point of entry just creates a predictable bottleneck at busy times of the day. If someone is looking to maximize casualties, their work is done.
The Revisionist at 10.18 re Centre-right ‘economic managers’…
Bludger Project: how to break down the perception of centre-right parties (Aus: LNP) as ‘better economic managers’?
From Goebbels: don’t ask people to change their views too much in one step. Take an existing view and build on it in the direction you want. (OK, Goebbels was filth, but he understood propaganda/marketing.)
What are some existing (overwhelming majority) views in the Australian community that could be the starting points for a shift towards ‘Labor as superior economic managers’? Remember, baby steps…
Point out continually stuff like this:
Pope Bane☠️
@Pope_Bane
An increase in the cost of power was a lovely parting gift from the LNP, the self proclaimed best economic managers for Australia.
Automatic fail Snappy Tom – Godwin’s Law invoked.
”
Victoriasays:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 9:41 am
On twitter
President Barack Obama said if he could take three things from Australia they would be our Health System, Compulsory voting and our gun laws.
”
Even with those systems and laws LNP was in power for 20 of the last 26 years.
Now you can understand how transformative Howard was ( in a bad way) with the help of Murdoch hacks.
I bet you $50 the next federal election won’t be a DD.
‘Oliver Sutton says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 8:56 am
Bludging:
“… the Labor-phobic Greens …”
Show us on the doll where the bad Greens touched you.’
=======================
This is really sicko stuff, IMO.
Boerwar @ #88 Thursday, May 26th, 2022 – 9:20 am
It is a profound error to equate Brisbane with the rest of Queensland. There is no “Greensland”. Even “Greensbane” is a stretch.
C@t at 10.28 re power prices…
Yes, hammering Coalition ‘cost of living’ failures is important.
I would also slip in ‘failed economic mangers’ language with it…
Sentence 1: “Figures today show power prices soared under a Coalition out of touch with cost of living pressures for ordinary Australians.”
Immediately followed by Sentence 2: “The Coalition managed the economy so badly that power prices went out of control.”
Of course, in this term Labor has to deliver (perceived) hope for improved electricity affordability (in the face of media bias).
We could apply this 2 step approach to many parts of the economy. One day, we could start saying “Part of Labor’s superior economic management is…”. Ultimately, we might get to “Labor: the superior economic managers.”
LR
Cult leaders thrive on instilling self-delusional bullshit.
The messiah: ‘WE WILL SAVE THE PLANET.’
Lars at 10.30 re Godwin’s Law…
Automatic fail, Lars: incorrect application of Godwin’s Law.
Queensland is like very state and territory. It has variations inside its borders. Statements which start, ‘Queenslanders are…’ are almost invariably incorrect in some respects.
The Liberals just conceded they have lost the seat of Ryan to the Greens.
The Greens in state and federal elections have now won seats from the Liberals,Labor and Nationals and have a very strong and growing voting base among the 18 to 39 year old demographic.
I estimate on the basis of this demographic alone the Greens will increase their vote by about 1% every 3 years.
He is going to have to do something with that rictus.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/may/26/australia-news-live-updates-anthony-albanese-labor-liberals-peter-dutton-nsw-victoria-politics-climate-childcare-covid
In regards the primary vote, how many seats have not gone to preferences?
Preferential voting is what we have in Australia.
The result of the election conducted on 21st May, 2022 is :-
Labor 74
Liberal 25
Liberal/National 21
Independent 10
National 10
Greens 3
Katter 1
Centre Alliance 1
With 6 Seats still to be called (Source: Guardian)
And, of that result, where are the Greens going to negotiate a Coalition to achieve 76 Seats on the floor of the House?
Or ever get into a position to do so?
The problem the Greens have is that, in supporting what Labor have taken to the election in regards action on climate, they make themselves irrelevant, they being (again) a danger to the Nation in their quest for relevance IF there is a reliance on this Minor Party in the Senate (where, hopefully, some from the Liberal Party may cross the floor to confirm a change of stance on climate).
Look at the difference between the Independents elected to the parliament, speaking to responsibility versus the Greens bragging their success and status, noting the numbers above.
What is overlooked is the success of an Albanese led Labor government, delivering inclusion and respect to a damaged political landscape – and being rewarded by the electorate for so doing.
@ Boerwar 920am
Boer, you disparage the comment about Greensland and quote the TPP 2022 stats.
But while that buffoon Barnaby goes on about how strong the Nats are, he, like the lords of the castle, place all their strength in the castle’s walls..
Like the leaders of East Germany before the fall of the Soviet Union.
Sure, the wall will hopefully keep out the invaders, but how long? Very few of even the strongest castles survived.
Their great weakness was the isolation of the inhabitants and from internal issues like starvation and disease.
I’m not saying that those factors will bring down the walls of the National Party in Qld, obviously, but metaphorically speaking, trying to keep the modern world out will inevitably fail.
As the population of regional cities increases, with migration, as technology continues to change occupations within regions, then only the furtherest West regional centres will hold.
Even then, while Joyce proclaims the strength of rural culture and thinking, there is greater demand for all the services and benefits of urban life. Surely this will influence the voting patterns of the regional population in years to come. People living in large regional centres become more urbanised over time. There is, in my experience of living and working in SW Qld, an aspect of differentiation between those living in larger regional centres and those living outside them.
No, the National walls will remain strong for the foreseeable future, but how long is that?
It is a constant theme here in Qld that to hold government, a Party has to secure seats in the populous SE. The Nationals hold few,and depend on the LNP to pick such seats up.
The loss of 3 major metropolitan seats sends a shiver down the LNP spine. That the incoming new LOTO had a swing against him is evidence of that.
One last observation. The swing to conservatism has ended. No more can conservatism take its support for granted.
Qld may be the bastion of the LNP. But history shows that bastions fall. To hold your own, you must attack the bastions of the enemy as well. Can they do that?
I can understand why regional Queenslanders (CQ and NQ). don’t vote Labor. When you go there, you can get it viscerally – Federal Labor is just not on their side, economically or culturally. But provided State Labor remains moderate and parochial, it gets a chance.
What is harder to understand is Brisbane. There are suburban seats it should be winning but only did under Rudd. Brisbane itself is a pretty conservative place but Labor can win similar suburban seats in other cities.
malcolm says:
Thursday, May 26, 2022 at 10:41 am
The Liberals just conceded they have lost the seat of Ryan to the Greens.
The Greens in state and federal elections have now won seats from the Liberals,Labor and Nationals and have a very strong and growing voting base among the 18 to 39 year old demographic.
I estimate on the basis of this demographic alone the Greens will increase their vote by about 1% every 3 years.
====================
Only another half century and the Greens are seriously looking at government… of course by then the temperature will be well above 1.5%, the Reef will be cooked, and the first millions of climate refugees will be on the move. Not to worry. I am certain the Greens will Save the Planet!!!