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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Add another 1% interest to the Australian government debt and its what another $10bn straight on the deficit annually.
The capital value of interest free loans depreciates with inflation.
LVT: “debt”
The LNP doesn’t get to talk about debt anymore.
Oh, sorry about the protocol CaT! You know how it is here….Strike while the iron is hot or the thought is gone…….
As long as the Labor economics team show steady progress back towards paying off government debt and the deficit, I’m sure the electorate will understand.
Tricot @ #154 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 9:22 am
No problemo, Tricot. Just some gentle guidance. 🙂
The debt will be much larger at the next election.
BW: “The capital value of interest free loans depreciates with inflation.”
Which incentivizes spending it sooner rather than later. That is literally the entire justification for having inflation as an instrument of central banking.
I would have thought you’d have slunk off in shame Lars, looking in vain for a shred of credibility somewhere rather than trying to keep trolling.
I am less surprised Taylormade is still trying the same crap because I don’t have the impression Taylormade is that creative or has that much else going on.
King O @ 9:01
Precisely.
It’s amazing how the media from Sunday started to describe Labor’s agenda as extensive when but hours before it was a small target…
Albo will be implementing that agenda to the maximum extent possible and with as few variations as absolutely necessary to get it through the Senate. He’ll seek to maintain good relations with all parties and independents to the extent that they are interested in good relations with Labor.
That’s it. There’s more than enough to be getting on with. If the Greens want their agenda implemented they can go and win seats like Hunter and Shortland.
+ add the cost of transitional mechanisms for those impacted by climate change targets and mitigation.
Who in Labor is going to tell the good folk in Hunter and Maitland the good news that their mining and mining related jobs will have to go to meet a emissions reduction target of between 43-74% by 2030?
Presumably the Govt will want to spend something on these poor folk who will be the losers from climate action?
Wont be cheap!
ratsak : “It’s amazing how the media from Sunday started to describe Labor’s agenda as extensive when but hours before it was a small target…”
Schroedingers agenda.
Yep, “debt and deficit” two words that totally disappeared from the lexicon of the LNP for the last number of years.
I believe the Debt Truck, along with the Morrison Bus is rusting in some shed on Barnaby Joyce’s property….It may be some time before they will ever be needed again by the LNP……
Then again, maybe one of them was used to put the big sign that Albanese and the Chinese Emperor were good mates in the early days of the election………The Red Truck or something…. was it? I can’t remember exactly…..I think this one may have even made it across the Nullabor………
Mogotrone – keep us informed about what is happening with preferences/exhausting of minor party votes if you can. Need to do mini surveys of say 100 votes for each group as the AEC people handle/sort/check/enter them if you are able.
Same anyone scrutineering Senate for SA and Vic or elsewhere.
So the subplot to the election has grown. The battle for the soul of the Liberal party is now front and centre 🙂
A post election subplot is whether The Greens will demonstrate political growth. Do they learn from 2010-2013 and sacrifice ideology for pragmatism? Albanese has asked the question with a potential wedge. By stating the Uluru statement is key. The Greens now need to decide what they will do when they are called to vote in the Senate. We may see growing pains. But nothing like the pain of being rent asunder like the Liberals 🙂
LVT: “muh climate”
LNP #weed doesn’t understand the benefits of action on climate change. This and other news at 11.
I had Labor at 77 seats in Late Riser’s tipping game. Come on, one more from Brisbane and Gilmore . Meanwhile, unless some drama happens Labor have a lock on majority Government and the Coalition are a rabble.
Barnaby is going to be challenged for the leadership and journo’s are now talking about a Coalition split unless they can get on the same page about climate change with the Liberals being burnt in suburbia and the Nats looking out for the resources sector in the bush. Littleproud being elected leader of the Nats would possibly signal the Coalition is salvageable.
So of the three great slobs on the world stage, two down, one to go.
Arky, the point is there are tough economic times ahead – and the Government has a choice to either reign in spending or not.
Basically every western govt got a free pass for the last 3 years on interest rates and govt spending because of Covid.
That’s very much over now. It’s Labor’s bad luck its got in just when things have to go off emergency Covid settings.
Arky @ Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:24 am
Lars/Edward/Edwina is fuelled by the fire of feeling spurned by Labor. Hate is a strong motivator and Pollbudger is fertile ground. There are a couple on here in similar circumstances. I feel sorry for them, except when they cause harm to others.
Where’s Ed Husic?
‘Pi says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:24 am
BW: “The capital value of interest free loans depreciates with inflation.”
Which incentivizes spending it sooner rather than later. That is literally the entire justification for having inflation as an instrument of central banking.’
===========================
Wage lag this incentivization = cost of living squeeze.
LVT : “and the Government has a choice to either reign in spending or not.”
One dimensional thinking from LNP #weeds. The economy can be grown by building out renewables, because more money ends up in the economy. Tens of billions of dollars a year no longer going offshore. More money in taxpayers pockets as energy prices decrease. More money paid by taxpayers because they’re not spending money on consumables. You know what’s called? Productivity improvement.
The LNP is completely and utterly out of ideas. They haven’t had a new one in decades.
ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:30 am
So of the three great slobs on the world stage, two down, one to go.
=========================
You left out the two most dangerous – Putin and Xi.
Socrates – 851am
Don’t take anything or anyone for granted – an important lesson for all parties at this election. And I know Labor people are right now analysing the swings against Labor in ‘safe’ Melbourne seats.
The Labor Party has shown the ability to move with the times for 130 years, despite several very painful ‘splits/defections’ in that time. The Conservative parties in Australia over that same period have not been as resilient, and it does make me wonder whether with the Teals we are seeing the start of another such cycle and the emergence of a new party or parties. These things can happen quickly. I am sure that in 1939 few thought the UAP would be consigned to history within a few short years (and no Clive you don’t count!).
The ‘Teal Wall’ may handicap the Coalition, but as Fowler and the Brisbane seats demonstrate, no party ‘owns’ any seats. In the end the best way to campaign is not constantly ‘campaigning’ but getting on and doing a good job in government for the people, a point the previous PM never seemed to grasp.
Bernie Finn has got the Royal Order.
He is no longer a card carrying Liberal.
BW: “Wage lag this incentivization = cost of living squeeze.”
Yep. That’s why it sucks of course. You’re saying this like I don’t know this? Given other discussions about my interests in the past? That’s weird.
Sounds to me like you’re now arguing against your own assertions of 15 minutes ago.
Lucky Bernie
“Controversial MP Bernie Finn expelled from Liberal Party for disobedience”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberal-party-room-to-decide-fate-of-controversial-mp-bernie-finn-20220524-p5anx3.html
The libs manage to do something right by accident.
I’m beginning to suspect that my prediction of 95 labor seats may not necessarily be realistic.
Big A Adrian: “I’m beginning to suspect that my prediction of 95 labor seats may not necessarily be realistic.”
Maybe by the end of the term?
”
Alan Kohler argues that this was Julia Gillard’s election victory.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/23/climate-change-gillard-election-alan-kohler/
”
Kohler (a reputed economist, whose views I respect more than any other economist and that includes Gittins) wrote in above article: Nor can balanced budgets and economic management, since no one cares about debt and deficits any more, or macho strength, which has been Scott Morrison’s defining election policy.
Rocket Rocket: ” but as Fowler and the Brisbane seats demonstrate”
Brisbane maybe. Griffith yes.
I imagine three possibilities for the Coalition.
1/ Remain together and moderate their policies;
2/ separate, or
3/ remain together and move further to the right.
Option 1 is unlikely as it contradicts the true convictions of both parties, particularly in relation to climate change.
Option 2 is unlikely and would potentially result result in their existential demise.
Option 3 is most likely as it retains the perceived political strength of the Coalition (temporarily at least) and supports their conservative convictions regarding climate change. It will however continue their diminishment as political forces over time though as they are unlikely to see this until it’s too late because they thrive on the denial of reality and are incapable of adapting.
Boerwar @ #125 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 9:03 am
There is when both 1) you’ve persuaded everyone to use a fiat currency; and 2) you’re the issuer of that currency. Your lunches are free for as long as you can convince people that you can get away with it.
This weeks American Prestige kinda addresses some of the China stuff including from a perspective that is perhaps more in line with the China hawks.
Very interesting to hear some of that stuff.
On parties “owning seats:
The Greens pledge to “do something” about aircraft noise from Brisbane Int Airport resonated throughout Brisbane and especially Griffith and gave them a point of contrast.
Let’s see if they can deliver enough to match the electorates’ expectations.
What are the chances that we do what we always do, crank up immigration to paper over the cracks?
“Vensays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:41 am
”
Alan Kohler argues that this was Julia Gillard’s election victory.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/23/climate-change-gillard-election-alan-kohler/
”
Kohler (a reputed economist, whose views I respect more than any other economist and that includes Gittins) wrote in above article: Nor can balanced budgets and economic management, since no one cares about debt and deficits any more, or macho strength, which has been Scott Morrison’s defining election policy.”
This should, but won’t, open your eyes to your own ignorance – neither Kohler of Gittens are economists let alone “reputed” economists. They are journalists and neither even studied economics.
I’m in the “don’t underestimate Dutton” camp – but only in so far as to say that if there were a major economic disaster like a depression or severe downturn it could make authoritarianism palatable. People are already jittery.
Even then he’s hardly charismatic but as others have noted above about Albo, “looking the part” is really a bit of an illusory mantle that is quickly assumed or shed.
With the current state of play though, Dutton would seem to be a disaster for that side. Cementing a minority position long term perhaps. He’s completely at odds with this new taste for “community” representation that is suddenly the by-word of our times. Seems to me that Labor can, with persistent hard work and commitment to their grass roots, really have a lot to offer local communities in that field.
It feels to me that everything has changed overnight, like looking through that machine that suddenly swaps lenses in an optometrist’s room. My faith in our political system and it’s moderating mechanisms such as compulsory and preferential voting is restored for now.
Thanks for the analysis and commentary WB and everyone else btw, I’ve been disengaged for a fair while but it was good at this election to rediscover pollbludger to help throw light on the entrails of the tea-leaves.
Debase the currency and it all eventually goes to crap.
Inflation is currently 5.1% and expected to remain stable over the next two quarters and then ease over the two quarters after that. Should be no problem for Albo and Chambers as everyone here says they are brilliant.
The CashRate is currently 0.35% and expected to go up over the coming months. I expect Labor’s policies to stop it in its tracks as Labor’s cost of living policies leave the Coalition for dead.
Boerwar @ #176 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 9:37 am
Yes but Matthew Guy stressed it wasn’t anything to do with his abominable beliefs re womens rights.
David Davis perhaps celebrating already in the members bar …?
Don’t most flights into Brisbane involve coming in over that big bit of water to the east?
‘michael says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:51 am
Inflation is currently 5.1% and expected to….’
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uh huh. Great Expectations.
Great to see that once commissioned as the Attorney, Dreyfus will
look into Collaery’s prosecution, and will hopefully nollie the indictment against him.
_________________________________________
The text sent out on Saturday was contemptible, and whomsoever authorised it should be identified. I’m pretty sure it was…?
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The election result has proved once again that electors have seen
through Murdoch’s attempts to sway an election. A royal commission is not the way to proceed; far better to have an inquiry into media diversity and then let the parliament decide.
I hope at some stage when ALP has had a chance “to look at the books” they open them up to the public and say this is the actual state of things.
Get it on the record so that down the track there can’t be any lies made up by Libs
Retread Guy is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
”rnm1953 says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:54 am
I hope at some stage when ALP has had a chance “to look at the books” they open them up to the public and say this is the actual state of things.
Get it on the record so that down the track there can’t be any lies made up by Libs’
=======================================
Exactly the exercise Chalmers is engaged in as we post.
”
David Crowe and Anthony Galloway outline Albanese’s packed schedule in Tokyo.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-wants-climate-consensus-with-biden-in-first-overseas-meeting-20220523-p5anv5.html
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From the article: Albanese used a phone call with Biden on Sunday, when the US president congratulated him on winning the election, to canvass ways Australia and the US could co-operate on clean energy, including gaining US support for the Labor proposal to host a future United Nations climate summit in Australia and the Pacific.
The phone call on Sunday also covered the shared views in Australia and the US on democracy and Biden’s strong criticisms of the attacks on the US Congress on January 6 last year by protesters in Washington who were encouraged by Trump. The conversation noted the fact that Morrison did not condemn those protests.