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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Reading Kevin Bonham’s blog, it looks like the ALP has the 76. What Monsieur Bowe has labeled as ALP likelies, Bennelong, Macnamara and Lyon, have broken for the ALP, and Deakin has broken for the LNP. That’s 73+3 for the ALP and two more seats in doubt: Gilmore and Brisbane. Ryan is likely Green, but that’s still a possible as well.
So at least 76, perhaps up to 79. Perhaps not.
I feel that one thing this election taught us was that if people don’t feel it, it’s not going to get that far. And people meaning, most average Australians.
People felt SfM was shit. The biggest state-media-like campaign to tell people “what you believe is a lie. He is bewwwtiful” did NOT work. Boo hoo to all the ‘journos’. “Are we joke to you?”… why yes, you are! Don’t forget to blink before you start on the next campaign against Albo.
So the anti-woke thing that the RW press are going to try to pin on the ALP every day will only work if they refuse to cover much of what the ALP does in government. Everything is likely to be “the opposition thinks this” all the time.
The low-info people will not notice, probably neither will the average Australians but not as much.
It could very well be that the RW press types are fighting in a 2013 mindset:
• Delivering on an FICAC, and then it working to full strength will bring in a lot of LNPs. That stuff is news! Once FICAC is up, the entertainment starts. Try going “ALP woke = evil” while ex-Minister is hauled over the stakes.
• Ofc, the RW press will try their best to go “eyes to the front! woke is all that matters” (or whatever floats their boat), but I believe that the ALP will be more community orientated, so a lot of info will go out about how people’s lives are being changed and impacted and what they receive. That stuff always counteracts against a nationwide campaign. Look how many people voted for someone, no matter what their party, bc they were local and known e.g. Fowler. That is, I hope the ALP do this.
• All of this RW crap is meant to get the LNP back into power. They’ll have their momentum etc, however, the momentum combined in the ALP, Teals and Greens separately will mean that the LNP will have a fight on its hands everywhere. Whose going to leave the outer suburbs to the LNP because reasons?
• When (not if) we get another climate change disaster, how the ALP handles it will be top notch. It will be so easy to compare that to SfM
I guess two things extra:
– there maybe someone doing their political science PhD who will study the effect of the RW press (Deves, Sky, 9News etc) on where and how they had an effect. I’d read that, and include that in any future planning. Like the US provides Ukraine with intelligence to target, so we could do with that.
– on everyone other than UAP, PHON types, and few normies, when things look like they are functioning well and for the good of the community, worrying about wokeness etc becomes less important. When things go bad, conspiracies go crazy. Conspiracies give you the ‘answer’ to why things are going all wrong.
There’s some right and not-quite-right perspectives from me on things may not be too bad when the Freyas of the world try to make us all ‘fear’ the LNP and RW press 3 days after we won and the LNP scored their worst defeat maybe since 1943 and a reworking of the political order in favour of us. Ofc, constant vigilance!
“That is a suggestion for how Labor wins the war. It does not remove the war.”
Someone is really obsessed by war…
The Age 24/05
Petrol prices are tipped to reach $2.20 a litre soon and remain elevated for some time despite the recent cut to the fuel excise, posing a challenge for the new Labor government, which plans to hand down a budget within weeks of the cost-of-living relief measure ending.
_____________________
Just remember Labor campaigned on cost of living going down not up.
Chalmers needs to get his fucking shit together quickly.
Macca
Thanks. I can’t see the benefit to Labor in fighting the teals. Labor will never win the teal seats. Far better to work with the teals, broadening the Labor base, and sinking the Liberals at the same time. The Liberals will struggle to form government without recovering those six+ seats. So help keep them teal!
BK
Thanks for the roundup. Labor is increasingly looking in good shape after the election. Though Labor needs to understand that if it does not move on climate change now, it will fave its own tangerine coloured insurrection next time, or lose more seats to the Greens. The Liberals lost thinking every voter is a tradie. Labor will lose in 2025 if it makes the same assumption.
In the long run, political parties that fail to evolve, die. If you don’t believe me, ask a Whig. I don’t want to see that happen to Labor, so I make no apology for pointing out that Labor must evolve to better engage with and represent the large numbers of workers it does not effectively represent now. That includes most knowledge workers and professionals, who are not all rich.
The old white/blue collar class warfare shtick is completely obsolete. The old school tie form of elitism is the real problem if we are serious about fighting injustice and inequality.
Excellent news.
The first real dividend of getting rid of Morrison, Payne and Dutton.
China has made the first diplomatic move for a rapprochement.
Scout
“While what Freya says deserves being scoffed at, what she says re Trump being elected is right.”
Garbage.
Freya is desperately trying to say you can compare US and Aussie electoral experiences..
US and aussie politics can never be compared as the US doesnt have compulsory voting, a ridiculously undemocratic electorial college and has a party that gerrymanders and restricts voting rights.
Completely different to our situation.
If the US had fair elections and compulsory voting the repugnants, and flogs like Trump, would never hold office ever again..
Not even half of the US voted in 2016 and Trump got 3 million less votes than Hilary.
Freya is clearly a troll who’s comments should be ignored. Dont feed the the troll.
Tailormaid: “Just remember Labor campaigned on cost of living going down not up.”
Just remember the LNP campaigned on how the economy was humming along and there was no mood for change.
‘Socrates says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:51 am
Macca
Thanks. I can’t see the benefit to Labor in fighting the teals. Labor will never win the teal seats. Far better to work with the teals, broadening the Labor base, and sinking the Liberals at the same time. The Liberals will struggle to form government without recovering those six+ seats. So help keep them teal!
….’
==============================
Agree that the important general signal would be that Albanese is inclusive and consultative.
Other than that working with the Teals is also a seat by seat proposition IMO.
And while we are at it, Labor and the Greens have to continue to take a leaf out of Rudd’s book…To be on continual attack on the Murdoch press outfit.
Rudd has done sterling service for Labor in this regard.
It is not just enough to say the Murdoch press is outrageously biased but to attack them for being so….all the time.
A few years ago, an editorial in The Australian newspaper stated, in as many words, that one aim of the Australian was to destroy the Greens at the ballot box. Now, I am not great friend of the Greens but the arrogance that a newspaper can so blatantly seek to destroy a legitimate political party should have everyone concerned.
One line of attack is to call into question other news outlets who start by saying…………”In an item in the Australian News paper today….blah, blah…………..” or “Today, on our show we have Peta Credlin….blah….blah………..” as if this kind of stuff is somehow more important than their own presentation…..
I agree if Labor doesn’t increase its Climate targets they will lose more seats to the Greens.That won,t bother me.
Ratings agencies have already send they will be watching Labor’s spending. Unsurprising that the RBA would also be watching Labor’s spending in deciding what to do on rates. They will be aware that Dr Chalmers is proposing to run higher deficits.
Monetary policy may be tighter to compensate for looser fiscal policy. That’s basic economics.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:51 am
The Age 24/05
Petrol prices are tipped to reach $2.20 a litre soon and remain elevated for some time despite the recent cut to the fuel excise, posing a challenge for the new Labor government, which plans to hand down a budget within weeks of the cost-of-living relief measure ending.
_____________________
Just remember Labor campaigned on cost of living going down not up.
Chalmers needs to get his fucking shit together quickly.
***************************************
The solutions are obvious, instead of giving us a tax break to use petrol, how about reducing demand? Stepping up electric vehicles, walking, cycling and public transport. I’d love to see Parliament on Zoom for a session or 2 as well. The price of petrol will fall if people don’t need to use so much of the stuff…
Tricot
One of the truly great signals in this campaign is that Labor totally owned its past prime ministers and they totally supported Labor. Shorten swung in solidly during the campaign.
Some deep wounds mended there.
I will scrutineer this week for the senate in WA. Looking hopeful for Fatima Payman. First time ever, 3 sente spots for Labor in the half senate election. Fingers crossed.
The best approach for the LNP would be to just shut up and lie low for the next 18 months. If they want to regain any traction there needs to be a distinct and obvious break between the Morrison years and whatever swill they serve up next.
Alpha Zero: “The solutions are obvious, instead of giving us a tax break to use petrol, how about reducing demand?”
Provide interest free loans for home batteries and solar, and that reduces the cost of buying an electric car, because the car is powered by the home energy supply. That reduces the draw of energy for the rest of the network, reducing the cost of energy even for the people who don’t have access to their own energy supply, reduces foreign exposure to energy prices, and reduces our greenhouse emissions.
Total cost to the Australian taxpayer? Zero.
Re Macca @8:29.
”This community based group [Teals] have achieved something which the ALP has been unable to do in 122 years since Federation – ousted entrenched Tories within their personal fiefdom.”
They have also achieved what the Australian Democrats (~1978~2007) the DLP (1955~1980), the UAP (2013-) and other would-be Third Forces in Australian politics – win multiple seats in the House of Representatives. Admittedly they did it with the help of a billionaire, but as the UAP demonstrates, that’s not all it takes.
AZ
There are some things that Labor can do without raising either taxes or spending here.
1. Reduce subsidies.
2. Work with the states to set nationals standards for all-vehicle compatible charging stations.
3. Setting emissions caps on vehicle imports.
@Shrodingers Cat (from yesterdays thread) re not happy with ALP small target strategy;
At the risk of stating the obvious, it won the ALP government so that they can now implement some more progressive policies than what you would have got (LNP government) if they went with a more adventurous policy set.
Bill Shorten demonstrated what happens when Labor runs an ambitious policy set in a federal election. You lose. The fact that the ALP in this election ran a small target and still only managed a narrow victory against a dysfunctional opponent shows how little policy margin the ALP has to work with.
Please don’t run the line, “they just had to be better at selling policy and educating the masses, then they could be more adventurous”. Until we get some media reform, that is not going to fly.
Politics is the art of the possible. Whilst Albo is the factional leader of the left, he recognises this tenet and is politically pragmatic. Accordingly, he will seek to implement the policy agenda he won the election on, nothing more and hopefully, nothing less. For that will be his best chance of winning the next election.
For those wanting more (this term), you should prepare to be disappointed. The best you can realistically hope for is for Labor to successfully build a case for some more progressive policies for the following term (without scaring the horses).
LVT: “Ratings agencies have already send they will be watching Labor’s spending. ”
It was the ALP that got the AAA credit rating for Australia during the GFC ya silly numpty.
BK – 745am
Thanks as always.
Loved the Pope cartoon – with Albanese and Toto calmly riding their ‘small target’ boogie board in the teal-tinged tube wave. And the lovely touch of the barrels of pork as flotsam and jetsam.
Has any cartoonist taken up the theme of this famous quote?
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.”
Sohar @ #80 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:33 am
Oh, I just have a lot of admiration for him as a fair dealer. Just what FICAC needs. 🙂
Taylormade at 8:51 am
What do you suggest they do, force OPEC to pump more oil ? The yanks tried and failed. Everything starts with ‘energy’ so a bigly increase in prices is baked in globally. Plus of course the supply chain schemozzle. Inflation is baked in for whoever won the election.
‘Pi says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:59 am
Alpha Zero: “The solutions are obvious, instead of giving us a tax break to use petrol, how about reducing demand?”
Provide interest free…’
—————————
The taxpayer de facto pays the interest. There is no such thing as a free lunch. The capital depreciates. The interest goes on to that Fed interest bill which is already $22 billion a year and which will grow quickly. It will grow quickly because the cost of bond sales is already growing quickly and there is a minimum quarter trillion dollar deficit baked into forward estimates.
Pi @ #121 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 9:01 am
You can always count on Lars von Liberal to be lurking around with the Gollumesque whispering campaign. 😐
Boerwar: “The taxpayer de facto pays the interest. ”
No they don’t.
Boerwar: “The capital depreciates. ”
That is paid by the person taking the loan.
BW: “Fed interest bill ”
That doesn’t exist. You have a bank loan confused with bonds.
I just heard that one of the main reasons for the big jump in fuel prices was a massive fire at a Refinery in South Korea.
Thanks, John Howard and Coalition governments for forcing Australia’s refineries to close! 😐
Pi,
Ryan is a Green win.
Brisbane isn’t a Labor lock, but should be close to it unless the postal do something weird.
Gilmore is going down to the wire but looking better for Phillips than Constance once the dodgy numbers at Gerringong are tidied up.
76 seats >99%
77 seats >90%
78 seats >50%
79 seats – yeah nah.
King OMalley,
Tim Gartrell’s beard has gone. He now looks very serious and clean shaven. 🙂
@Taylormade – I get that you’re just trolling, but I’ll bite.
Focusing on cost of living is a whole of economy thing, not a specific thing.
The cost of things that destroy the planet needs to go up. That’s a feature, not a bug.
The role of sensible governments is not to keep the fossil fuel industry going, it’s to make sure that people have enough money coming in, to buy all the things they need. Instead of trying to make petrol cheaper, Labor should focus on driving renewable energy investment to reduce electricity prices, delivering energy efficiency (doesn’t necessarily drive down CPI, but it means help on cost of living as people can do more with less, so price doesn’t matter as much), supporting the uptake of electric vehicles so petrol is weighted lower in the cost of living calculation, and above all, reducing the cost of housing, which is a huge portion of the cost of living calculation.
ratsak, yep, that’s about right. Just putting out what seem to be the last possibilities.
Second last comment, if anyone in Labor is thinking about the budget thing and Adelaide. Between no short term money for NS corridor) or submarines, South Australia was not shown a lot of love in the last Joshflationary budget. But where will money come from in an indebted budget?
A lot of money is promised around Australia to large urban tunnel road projects. Most are a waste of money. Their employment benefits are also far less than promised, and in climate change terms they are a negative. So scrap them.
Road infrastructure funding was increased under Rudd to fight the GFC. That was fine then but not now. Now there is inflationary pressure due to demands for construction workers in housing. Labor would do well to shrink road construction spending back to its pre GFC level, increase public transport funding instead, and use the change to reduce debt or build submarines etc.
To use the Adelaide example, completing the NS corridor will cost >$10 billion, or a billion per year for a decade. Do a surface minor upgrade instead ($1 billion), complete the tram system stopped by Abbott in 2013 (cost $3 billion?) upgrade ASC for SSN construction ($2 billion) and with the change pay off debtor fund health.
If Dr Chalmers believes inflation is out of control, rates will have to rise to address that. If fiscal policy remains at an $80bn deficit (or goes worse under Labor) then rates will have to rise more.
If Labor does nothing , interest payments on debt will automatically increase the size of the deficit.
Other measures such as supporting a 25% wage rise for aged care workers are also likely to encourage wage price inflation as well as expand the budget deficit (given Labor has not budgeted for the wage increase)
LVT: “If Labor does nothing ”
You have the ALP confused with the LNP.
‘Warmongering, lies and hatred’: Russian diplomat in Geneva resigns over Ukraine invasion
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/23/warmongering-lies-and-hatred-russian-diplomat-in-geneva-resigns-over-ukraine-invasion
The RBA is the one which will decide the credibility of Labor’s budget credentials not you or I Pi.
Pi @ #117 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:59 am
Chris Bowen is well aware of all of this. He was made aware in no uncertain terms of Renters’ problems accessing cheap solar to bring down their energy bill, so I would be looking forward to something being done on that front. They have already announced various Community Big Batteries. Not to mention the fact that in the last Labor federal government they provided Pink Batts for Renters (obviously could have been better regulated) and access to Solar Water Heaters for Rental properties.
And there are more Renters than ever before now! A lot of whom would have voted for Labor last weekend in the hope that Labor will do things for them.
@Lars – you are confused.
You are prescribing medicine that would be appropriate for a situation where the Coalition left the economy in
Inflation: 5.5%
Nominal GDP growth: 7.5%
Nominal Wages growth: 7.5%
Your suggested course of action is not appropriate for stagflation. I hope to hell that Chalmers is smarter than you.
”
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:31 am
I’m also in the don’t underestimate Dutton camp. We’ve all said exactly the same about Abbott and then Morrison, and both went on to be elected PM. The same can happen with Dutton.
The big advantage he has being from the rightwing faction is the capacity to unite the party, which was what Abbott and Morrison were able to do. And with fewer moderates now in the partyroom, there are less Liberal MPs to speak out against the new leader.
”
And so called moderate LNP (who sits in Liberal party caucus) talked highly of Dutton on ABC News breakfast show.
You know what happens when you reduce household expenses by shifting their energy from foreign fossil fuels to locally sourced renewables?
1. Energy costs less. For everyone.
2. Households have more money to spend in the economy.
3. Less money goes overseas.
4. The government earns more taxes.
Pi @ #135 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 9:09 am
Again with the Gollumesque whispering campaign from Lars von Liberal. 🙄
And, just as a swipe to the trolls here…
Thanks for cranking up the usual stuff with a Labor victory.
#(Use of the word “weed” here is deliberate as that is what trolls remind me of.)
*Last night we had one weed# going on about using the RAAF plane (instead of a “commercial flight”) to go to Japan…on the grounds of being a good example for the environment…Of course, the fact that both Morrison and Albanese criss-crossed Australian in the election campaign in RAAF planes did not count in that regard. I am surprised it was not suggested that all politicians use taxis or public transport to get them to and fro – as a “good” example.
*Another weed# today has come up with a whinge that petrol prices might just go to $2.20 and the Labor should do something about this………………like the counting has not even finished yet!
Morrison’s attempt the deal with the issue by cutting the excise is still there, and to use a LNP excuse, world fuel prices are at the mercy of supply and demand for fuels beyond our shores
*And yet another weed# has raised the question of the RB and interest rates…..Well, yes, of course they might just go up again……………Sooner or later all this cheap money sloshing round the economies of the world had to be paid for……Using another LNP excuse, interest rates are at the mercy of the big players in the market – and this is not Australia..
Mogotrone @ #115 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:57 am
Go you good things in WA! Fatima seems like a beautiful Afghani Australian who would be a credit to the Senate.
The cost of borrowings in the fed budget is $22 billion.
Final comment on submarines. If Labor is continuing with the UK or US SSNs under AUKUS (I think they should), the way we do it is as important as what we build.
There will be up front costs to establish the construction, maintenance and training facilities and workforces. That might easily cost $15 billion in the next four years. Once that is done though, the cost per annum of an SSN build program is not as much as some imply. The French and British SSNs are cheaper per unit than the Attack class were costing, even assuming Australian build costs. The program cost might be more like $2 billion per year once running.
Also, having gone through all that cost to start, the sub program needs to get to a continuous build process, as the naval shipbuilding was supposed to. It may not cost much more to build 10 as to build 8.
Defence has consistently failed to manage this in the last decade. Whether that was bureaucratic inertia or Liberal ministers trying to sandbag local manufacturing, I don’t know. But they need an investigation.
Have a good day all.
Oh how I wish more people understood how money is created in our modern economies…
Wait until they hear it was two jets (A330 MRTT and B737-700.)
Tricot,
Good points. But the hashtag goes at the front of the word usually. #internetrules 🙂
Soc,
Labor will want to retain Boothby and try again for Sturt. You can count on it.