Federal election live: day four

What now seems a certain Labor win in Bennelong leaves them one short of a majority, with a further three in-doubt seats as candidates to get them over the line.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.

The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.

New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “Federal election live: day four”

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  1. There will be a long haul for the Liberals with the Teals having some solid margins and many of their other seats on slim majorities as they start to rebuild. Dutton will need a personality transplant and none of the Deputy suggestions will generate much enthusiasm. His mates Barnaby and the coal lover will continue to be pests.
    Labor on the other hand have a solid team. Unfortunately some good operators won’t make it to the front bench. It’s a big agenda and the election results also show Australia must have climate change as a top priority.
    If the previous mob have anything to say about money management or taxes, hit them hard over their irresponsible and incompetent performance of the last decade. Tell them often.
    There is to be a Royal Commission into robo debt and ICAC must be in place before Christmas. Let’s hope they also hold a few enquiries to keep the opposition on their toes.

  2. Dutton for leader of a new LNQ party room. McCormack for the remaining Nats. Probably Archer for the remaining Libs. Then they will have scope to rebuild. Otherwise they won’t.

  3. “Mr Edsays:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 3:22 am

    …There is to be a Royal Commission into robo debt and ICAC must be in place before Christmas. Let’s hope they also hold a few enquiries to keep the opposition on their toes.”

    … and also a RC on the pandemic… So yes, the Libs will be extremely busy infighting, working out where to go and how, and answering hard questions from RCs… Let’s see whether Murdoch and Costello can perform a “nothing to see here” miracle!

  4. “Felix the Cassowarysays:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:03 am
    Dutton for leader of a new LNQ party room. McCormack for the remaining Nats. Probably Archer for the remaining Libs. Then they will have scope to rebuild. Otherwise they won’t.”

    Dutton for leader can only rebuild the wrong Coalition…. Not that I am complaining, go for it, guys…. and enjoy the next 12+ years in opposition.

  5. Do not underestimate Dutton. Abbott and especially, TRUMP was considered unelectable. Remember Dutton would be a dream for the Murdoch-rag Media that still calls the shots in this country. They would be doing all they can to white-ant Albanese and get Dutton elected.

  6. Some uncomfortable questions for Dutton I’d imagine.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government will investigate the arrival of a Sri Lankan asylum seeker boat on the morning of the election after outraged senior Labor members questioned the timing of the announcement and the Liberal Party’s immediate mass text messages to voters.

    Minutes after being sworn in as the nation’s new prime minister, Albanese accused the Liberal Party of playing politics with national security after texting voters in marginal seats about the interception of the boat on the day of the election.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-investigate-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival-as-frontbench-takes-shape-20220523-p5ansx.html

  7. UK news

    ‘Imran Ahmad Khan sentenced to 18 months over sexual assault of boy, 15 .. Ex-MP (Wakefield) jailed after being expelled from Tory party following conviction for groping teenager at party in 2008’

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/23/imran-ahmad-khan-sentenced-to-18-months-over-sexual-assault-of-boy-15
    ___________________________________________________________

    ‘Boris Johnson faces fresh claims he lied to MPs as new Partygate photos emerge .. images obtained by ITV News reveal table strewn with bottles at leaving do for a senior aide in November 2020’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/23/partygate-photos-boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-lockdown-breaches-sue-gray-report

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Can we just be clear. The issue is no longer whether Boris broke the law. Or if he thought he’d broken the law. It’s about whether he seriously stood in the middle of a leaving party, with booze cluttering every surface, raised a glass and thought “this is not a leaving party”.
    9:18 PM · May 23, 2022·Twitter Web App

    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    It’s my understanding that fines were issued for this event – though not to the PM – raising yet more questions for the police about their investigation.
    5:32 PM · May 23, 2022·Twitter Web App

  8. Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce said on Monday the Nationals party would reconsider its support for the net zero target that the Coalition took to the election, and he would not rule out breaking away from the Liberals.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-could-break-away-labor-s-election-win-spurs-more-coalition-climate-wars-20220523-p5ansj.html

    They might break away while in opposition, but without the coalition agreement preventing 3 cornered contests in certain seats, the Nats would be wiped out in one election. Just look at WA – how many WA Nationals are there in the federal partyroom?

  9. isnt littleprooud the obvious choice for nats leader steady pair of hands has reazonable media profile dutton would prefer joice but looks like mckormack has numbers chester would be best option but to modderit

  10. Don’t forget the Royal Commission into the ownership and conduct of the Australian media.
    That will keep Murdoch busy.

  11. LNP cheer squad leader Freya reckons we now should start fearing Dutton and Murdochcracy, her ( his they? )previous position was that we should fear Scomoe as he would win. Dutton is not even that popular in SEQ let alone the rest of the country, he is no Kevin Rudd. The Murdochracy has lost its power, it couldn’t influence the election even with virulent anti Albo and teals stuff. It’s journalists are a bunch of partisan clowns who have spent the last twenty years worrying about the old bloke in NYC and when he might turn up unannounced, once they retire they all turn on him. Murdoch senior is very old and Lachlan appears to be their version of Jamie Packer and reputedly a dimwit . Courier in Brisbane and Herald in Melbourne are ignored these days. Albo and his team are a ten year plus proposition Libs are 20 seats from government with scarce talent – a world of hurt.

  12. From previous thread on Gilmore:
    ratsak says:
    Monday, May 23, 2022 at 11:15 pm
    Yeah, the Gerringong booth preferences are arse about.

    Doesn’t guarantee Phillips’ win but the difference isn’t 300 to Constance, it’s about 4. There’s not many postals still to come, but the provisionals and absents aren’t in the count yet so it’s possibly just slightly advantage Labor.
    ———-
    Kevin Bonham said last night that Phillips is now 54 ahead. This one will, as they say in the classifieds, go down to the wire.

  13. Freya Stark @ #6 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:07 am

    Do not underestimate Dutton. Abbott and especially, TRUMP was considered unelectable. Remember Dutton would be a dream for the Murdoch-rag Media that still calls the shots in this country. They would be doing all they can to white-ant Albanese and get Dutton elected.

    ROFL. 😆

    How’s that 50:50 on election day and a Coalition win, going, Freya? 😆

  14. Who ever is the leader of the liberal party , may find it hard to convince the people of Australia, If people have stop listening to the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units

  15. Alan Tudge has already stated that he wants to be on Dutton’s Shadow Front Bench.

    Go for it, Alan! Be the constant reminder that everyone in Australia needs of what the previous government were like.

  16. Funny how Alan Tudge has resurfaced. We haven’t seen him in months and then literally overnight once the election is done and dusted, up he pops as if nothing has happened.

  17. The 9Fax papers have a scoop (that will surprise no one):

    Albanese jetted out of Canberra on Monday bound for Japan, leaving his deputy Richard Marles as Acting Prime Minister. The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age can reveal that Marles, who was sworn in as Minister for Employment on Monday, will be appointed Defence Minister when the wider ministry is sworn in next Wednesday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-investigate-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival-as-frontbench-takes-shape-20220523-p5ansx.html

    Brendan O’Connor to Home Affairs then, I reckon.

  18. Princeplanet says:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:08 am
    LNP cheer squad leader Freya reckons we now should start fearing Dutton and Murdochcracy, her ( his they? )previous position was that we should fear Scomoe as he would win.
    ——————
    In the days after the 2013 election wouldn’t you have liked to go onto a Liberal leaning forum and burst the bubble of the gloating conservatives? The remarkable thing is that so many Bludgers see the bait and are snagged, hook, line and sinker. Anyway it’s kind of you to Freya I guess, as she’s pretty clearly into Bludger fishing and Bludgers are giving her the enjoyment of a mighty catch.

  19. Freya (6:07am), you are asking us to pay attention to your prediction that a Dutton Coalition will prosper from enthusiastic Murdoch media support. First, how did such Murdoch support go in defending Frydenberg, Wilson, Sharma, Zimmerman and Falinski? Or in boosting Deves, for that matter? Secondly, how did your many predictions for this election go?

  20. simon holmes à court@simonahac
    ·7h
    43% primary.
    @AngusTaylorMP is in the death zone. not this election, maybe next.

  21. Confessions @ #21 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:21 am

    Funny how Alan Tudge has resurfaced. We haven’t seen him in months and then literally overnight once the election is done and dusted, up he pops as if nothing has happened.

    He should be renamed Alan Smudge. He’s a stain on the parliament. I hope the new government investigate the reasons behind the $500000 payment to Rachelle Miller. In the interests of transparency.

  22. C@tmomma: surely an enquiry into the Tudge payout should be forthcoming. The coalition treated our tax dollars as theirs. I remember Barney Joyce telling some interviewer on the ABC that his government paid for them. I can’t believe they got as many votes as they did, Good riddance to bad rubbish. And thank you for all your hard work for the ALP, people like you win elections.

  23. While what Freya says deserves being scoffed at, what she says re Trump being elected is right.

    Calling his supporters deplorable (although right) did not and does not work, and people like Dutton will use the same tactics ie we are not woke, liberal, leftys and we have ‘common sense’. There is still a large group that Sky, Murdoch etc will still play to.

    I hope the role of Murdoch decreases but fear it will not, I also remember the extremely negative effective opposition of Abbott attacking the legitimacy of Gillard and the Greens helped bring them down. Expect this to occur again.

  24. Senate looks like 14 for both Coalition and ALP, maybe 15 for ALP with an extra from WA.

    When was the last time ALP matched or beat the coalition in the senate, maybe a first ?

    (Seems like half the internet is dying right now, cant get to wikipedia)

  25. Princeplanet,
    Thank you. 🙂
    I did what I did, along with thousands of others around Australia, because I didn’t want the global Populist Authoritarian kleptocracy project to progress any further in Australia. I saw that America was able to fight back against it and the Murdoch Borg and so I determined that the good guys and the little guys combined could do it in Australia too. And we did!

  26. I’m also in the don’t underestimate Dutton camp. We’ve all said exactly the same about Abbott and then Morrison, and both went on to be elected PM. The same can happen with Dutton.

    The big advantage he has being from the rightwing faction is the capacity to unite the party, which was what Abbott and Morrison were able to do. And with fewer moderates now in the partyroom, there are less Liberal MPs to speak out against the new leader.

  27. Morning all. Despite disappointment in Sturt a Labor majority still looks more likely than not. The more I think about it, government with Greens and/or teals might also be a much better thing than some fear.

    Like others I am optimistic about the teal candidates staying in power for several reasons. Their motivating issue, climate change, will not be solved in three years. It will take ten years of policy action to get Australia on the road to climate credibility.

    Second the teals have big support networks. It is not just one charismatic candidate. They have virtually created micro political parties at a local level. This even enables succession planning, as with McGowan to Haines.

    Finally, the history of other teal-like incumbent independent – thinking Rebekah Sharkie, Helen Haines, Zali Steggall – is that they build up a solid local following and are hard to shift. The Liberals may have lost their heartland for a generation.

    So I think Labor should always try to negotiate with the greens and especially teals. The closer the teals work with Labor, the bigger the wedge in the Liberal party rump.

  28. C@t:

    I think there has to be some kind of investigation into the $500K payout. Or at the barest minimum, uncomfortable and direct questions asked of public servants about it.

  29. ‘fess,
    Dutton is no cleanskin. He did some dodgy things as Home Affairs and Defence Minister, the first of which is already being investigated-the asylum seeker boat on election day.

  30. Cat

    it would certainly be good for a new AG committed to transparency in government to release Rachelle Miller from any confidentiality clauses that may be in her payout agreement with the Commonwealth. She should be free to speak. It is the same principle Grace Tame spoke about when wanting to be able to name her assailant.

    If Tudge wants confidentiality he can use his own money for the payout.

  31. Oh boy!

    Tony Windsor@TonyHWindsor
    ·2m
    The Nationals have changed tack …their sole purpose under people like John Anderson was to keep the Liberals in Government and pick up some crumbs…with Joyce their sole purpose is to keep the Liberals out of Government and pick up zilch.A dipstick looking for sump.

  32. dutton will be great for us rresponsible for gladys liu losing chizolm and costing libs seats with high chinease populations such as read how ever martin did not help her self with her attack on Sitou plus with most likely michaelia cash as senate leader who refused to cowoperate with afp plus friendley joridies png perhaps investigated not good for libs

  33. C@tmomma @ #34 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:32 am

    ‘fess,
    Dutton is no cleanskin. He did some dodgy things as Home Affairs and Defence Minister, the first of which is already being investigated-the asylum seeker boat on election day.

    Didn’t Dutton benefit through his (and a family member – father?) building/buying and selling pre schools?

  34. “simon holmes à court@simonahac
    ·7h
    43% primary.
    @AngusTaylorMP is in the death zone. not this election, maybe next.”

    Why? In a probably high water mark election none of his opponents got over 20%. ALP will never win the seat and the well resourced independent got 15%.

  35. c chesteer should join liberals tomodderit for nats will not winn is only saying hill run to help his friend mckormack who is trying to re invent him self as believing in climate change chester is mckormacks best mate duton is not even popular in qld mor hatid then morrison at least morrison had some likability

  36. The Murdoch media lost on Saturday. I doubt they can remain influential in our politics, the support for their poisonous agenda is small and diminishing as their brainwashed base dies off.

  37. My uni colleague and friend, Andrew Gee, should get a prominent position in the Nats as he experiences opposition for the first time in 11 years (5 Orange, 6 Calare).

    He got a swing to him aided by SFF not running.

    Interesting to see how SFF go in NSW election in March 2022.

  38. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    When Joe Biden phoned Anthony Albanese from Air Force One on Sunday to congratulate him, he spoke the unspeakable. Climate change. This had been taboo, the standout topic where Biden and Scott Morrison simply could not agree, writes Peter Hartcher who also explains China’s changing domestic circumstances and what it could mean.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/climate-shift-albanese-agenda-warms-bilateral-relationship-20220522-p5ankz.html
    Mike Foley writes that The Liberals’ election wipeout is sending shockwaves through the Coalition and reigniting the climate wars, with moderate Liberals calling for more ambitious policies and the Nationals warning they could break from the alliance and ditch their commitment to net zero emissions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-could-break-away-labor-s-election-win-spurs-more-coalition-climate-wars-20220523-p5ansj.html
    The editorial in the SMH says that the major parties must heed the lessons of Saturday’s political earthquake.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/major-parties-must-heed-the-lessons-of-saturday-s-political-earthquake-20220523-p5anty.html
    It won’t be easy for Anthony Albanese, but he says he’s up for it, writes Paul Bongiorno who says it won’t only be the Sky After Dark commentators portraying every action of the Labor government in a negative light but also News Corp’s national broadsheet and tabloids around the country. A good read.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/05/24/paul-bongiorno-anthony-albanese-pm/
    Crispin Hull reckons the Liberal party has a stinker of a problem with its Coalition partner.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7749352/the-liberal-party-has-a-stinker-of-a-problem-with-its-coalition-partner/?cs=14258
    Barnaby Joyce says all is well with the Nationals’ vote – but a deeper dive suggests trouble lies ahead, posits Gabrielle Chan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/barnaby-joyce-says-all-is-well-with-the-nationals-vote-but-a-deeper-dive-suggests-trouble-lies-ahead
    China has ended a block on communicating officially with Australia after Premier Li Keqiang – second to President Xi Jinping – congratulated Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hours after he took office, state media reported.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/23/china-message-premier-li-keqiang-albanese/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    With a new Australian government and foreign minister comes fresh hope for Australia-China relations, writes James Laurenceson.
    https://johnmenadue.com/a-fresh-hope-for-australia-china-relations/A
    Alan Kohler argues that this was Julia Gillard’s election victory.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/05/23/climate-change-gillard-election-alan-kohler/
    Liberals still in Canberra must find their moderate voice and assertively represent the centre, writes Matt Kean in this op-ed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/23/liberals-still-in-canberra-must-find-their-moderate-voice-and-assertively-represent-the-centre
    Peter Dutton is firming as the man most likely to lead the Coalition, but he will need to overcome voters’ perceptions of him and the rising independent vote, writes James Massola who says that, like Brendan Nelson who took power after John Howard lost in 2007 and was dumped as leader less than a year later, Dutton could end up as little more than a placeholder opposition leader, destined for the scrap heap.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-likely-to-lead-the-opposition-but-will-he-go-the-way-of-brendan-nelson-20220523-p5anre.html
    David Crowe and Anthony Galloway outline Albanese’s packed schedule in Tokyo.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-wants-climate-consensus-with-biden-in-first-overseas-meeting-20220523-p5anv5.html
    Doug Tingwall writes that Anthony Albanese’s combination of praise and promise yesterday morning was about setting a tone for the new government’s dealings with public servants. It will be heard keenly in hallways, meeting rooms and offices around Canberra.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7749833/albanese-declares-theres-a-new-regime-in-this-public-service-town/?cs=14329
    Senior Labor members are questioning the timing of the announcement and the Liberal Party’s immediate mass text messages to voters.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-investigate-asylum-seeker-boat-arrival-as-frontbench-takes-shape-20220523-p5ansx.html
    Alexandra Smith tells us that one of the NSW government’s most senior ministers has warned that northern Sydney seats will always be under threat from independents.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/independents-pose-ever-present-risk-in-sydney-say-nsw-liberals-20220523-p5antj.html
    Scott Morrison’s effort to parachute in his preferred candidates and protect sitting MPs has ended disastrously, with the party crashing out in at least eight of the 12 seats and suffering huge primary swings almost across the board, writes The Australian’s Max Maddison.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-scott-morrison-hoodoo-doomed-his-captains-pick-candidates/news-story/cb0276606c3c71ec2ad0b7426d565cd9
    The Australian’s editorial says that Albanese must stick to the middle road on climate.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/editorials/albanese-must-stick-to-the-middle-road-on-climate/news-story/b50fb7da6574a230d5ccae59b0af0599
    Osman Faruqi thinks that the Coalition and Labor may never win back the seats they lost this time around.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-and-labor-may-never-win-back-the-seats-they-lost-20220523-p5ann9.html
    The Liberal Party would be mad to lurch to the left in the search for the mythical middle ground, urges Greg Sheridan.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/lib-lurch-to-the-left-would-be-disastrous/news-story/d6a70c5394ffa6790dd3878cab59664f
    Australians woke up to Scott Morrison and didn’t just move the goalposts – they dragged them off the paddock, declares Thomas Keneally.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/when-australians-woke-up-to-scott-morrison-they-didnt-just-move-the-goalposts-they-dragged-them-off-the-paddock
    The Labor caucus will be notably more diverse, with the likely addition of six MPs from non-European, non-Indigenous backgrounds, explains Matthew Knott.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/watershed-moment-parliament-makes-important-diversity-gains-20220523-p5anon.html
    Jenna Price argues that Bridget Archer is the jewel in the Libs’ tarnished crown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-bridget-archer-is-the-jewel-in-the-libs-tarnished-crown-20220523-p5antf.html
    When an incoming treasurer is briefed by top Treasury officials, they are often told uncomfortable truths. Here’s Jess Irvine’s fictional take on what Jim Chambers might have been told in recent days.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-treasury-told-the-new-treasurer-probably-20220523-p5anmh.html
    Labor’s ham-fisted campaign to get Kristina Keneally elected revealed a disturbing lack of understanding of the cultural complexities in Fowler, explains Cat-Thao Nguyen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-lesson-for-labor-why-the-people-of-fowler-rejected-keneally-20220522-p5aneg.html
    Big business will put changes to the better-off-overall test squarely on the negotiating table when it meets with unions and the new Labor government during Anthony Albanese’s employment summit, writes James Massola.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-faces-fresh-pay-test-from-business-20220523-p5ansl.html
    The incoming federal government should promote and implement good policies to help us to help ourselves to combat the rising cost of living, suggests Joel Gibson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/saving/five-ways-the-new-government-could-help-you-to-combat-rising-cost-of-living-20220523-p5ans6.html
    The Adelaide Advertiser rejoices that Anthony Albanese’s cabinet will be stacked with South Australian MPs who played key roles in crafting Labor’s strategy to seize power.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australia-in-position-of-power-as-several-mps-set-to-join-labors-cabinet/news-story/c8d6c85334f5d997bb6d8b1879f1e6f2?amp
    The Australian Electoral Commission says it has seen no evidence to support Clive Palmer’s election night accusation that its staff were taking home ballots, describing the suggestion as “frustrating and disappointing”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/zero-evidence-to-back-clive-palmers-claim-of-staff-taking-ballots-home-aec-says
    Frank Bongiorno wonders if Australia just took a turn to the left.
    https://theconversation.com/did-australia-just-make-a-move-to-the-left-183611
    In spite of mainstream media discourse, Martin Hirst argues that the election result was a resounding victory for the popular left.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/election-result-a-victory-for-the-popular-left-despite-what-you-may-hear,16393
    Nick O’Malley tells us how Labor’s election victory has been welcomed in global climate circles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-election-victory-welcomed-in-global-climate-circles-20220523-p5anrb.html
    Tim Flannery declares that climate action is the undisputed winner of the federal election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/climate-action-is-the-undisputed-winner-of-the-federal-election-20220522-p5anh2.html
    Linda Burney has said Labor’s commitment to an Indigenous Voice will change Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-will-change-australia-linda-burney-says-labor-committed-to-indigenous-voice-20220522-p5aneo.html
    Anthony Albanese has defeated Rupert Murdoch to become 31st PM of Australia, writes Darren Crawford.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/anthony-albanese-defeats-rupert-murdoch-to-become-31st-pm-of-australia,16391
    Labor’s Mark Dreyfus has flagged he will seek an urgent briefing from the attorney general’s department on the handling of the Bernard Collaery case, should he be appointed Australia’s first law officer, reports Christopher Knaus.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/mark-dreyfus-flags-bernard-collaery-case-as-priority-if-appointed-attorney-general
    Supply chain delays from China and the soaring cost of steel and other materials are combining to slow the advance of renewable energy in Australia and elsewhere, a leading insurer and industry groups say.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/24/supply-chain-delays-and-steel-costs-are-part-of-perfect-storm-stalling-renewable-energy-growth
    Slater and Gordon is considering a class action against Victoria’s triple-zero authority, which has been plagued by dangerous delays, now linked to at least 15 deaths.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/law-firm-considers-class-action-against-victoria-s-triple-0-authority-20220523-p5ant6.html
    An Afghan soldier who was allegedly directed by Ben Roberts-Smith to order the unlawful execution of a prisoner was not present on the day in question, according to a former elite soldier supporting the war veteran in his defamation case, writes Michaela Whitbourn after yesterday’s court proceedings.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/afghan-soldier-absent-on-day-of-alleged-killing-says-ben-roberts-smith-witness-20220523-p5anoh.html
    Lucy Cormack reports that another five senior executives have also resigned, at least three of them on request of the board itself, as the inquiry into Star’s Sydney casino licence continues. Now that’s quite a corporate cleansing! Yesterday Star’s outgoing chairman, John O’Neill, conceded untruthfulness and unethical practice had infiltrated parts of the business, while director Richard Sheppard earlier said there had been misplaced trust in management which hid information from the board.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/star-announces-interim-chair-and-ceo-after-john-o-neill-quits-20220523-p5annd.html
    The casino operator is now just a hasty patchwork of interim executives, cobbled together to run a $3 billion company that’s increasingly vulnerable to an opportunistic takeover, opines Elizabeth Knight.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/star-entertainment-a-sitting-duck-as-it-sinks-into-governance-void-20220523-p5ans9.html
    Joe Biden said the US military would intervene to defend Taiwan in any attack from China, some of his strongest language yet seeking to deter Beijing from an invasion. Asked during a press briefing in Tokyo on Monday whether the US would be willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan, Biden said: “yes – it’s a commitment we made.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/biden-pledges-us-military-will-defend-taiwan-if-china-attacks-20220523-p5anuk.html
    Australia has shown how quickly the right can crumble. Boris Johnson, be warned, says Gaby Hinsliff. An interesting read.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/23/australia-election-results-right-boris-johnson-scott-morrison
    There’s a whole lot of dirty laundry being aired at a trial over property issues in London. Nicole Winfield says that testimony so far has provided plenty of insights into how the Vatican operates, with a cast of characters worthy of a Dan Brown thriller or a Shakespearean tragicomedy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/vatican-airs-dirty-laundry-in-trial-over-london-property-20220523-p5annm.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding




    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Glen Le Lievre (with a gif)
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1528636139221184512


    John Shakespeare


    Peter Broelman

    Mark David

    Fiona Katauskas

    Dionne Gain

    Mark Knight

    Spooner

    From the US










  39. 1983 was the last time ALP won more senate spots (30) than the coalition (28). They have been equal a few times.

    It will be significant if that WA spot goes to ALP.

  40. Confessions: probably only Scomoe played a bigger part in the downfall of this government than the arrogant, privileged, entitled Angus. He seems like the type of guy who’s led a pretty easy life having lived off the fat of the land in Australia Felix, went to the best schools in the land and became too big to fail. He is also most likely an example, like many libs of the Peter principal. As they say the intelligent are full of doubt but the stupid are absolutely certain of everything.

  41. Bellwether, the death of Murdoch influence had been forecast for the last 20 years. I will believe it when I see it.


  42. maxsays:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:14 am
    From previous thread on Gilmore:
    ratsak says:
    Monday, May 23, 2022 at 11:15 pm
    Yeah, the Gerringong booth preferences are arse about.

    Doesn’t guarantee Phillips’ win but the difference isn’t 300 to Constance, it’s about 4. There’s not many postals still to come, but the provisionals and absents aren’t in the count yet so it’s possibly just slightly advantage Labor.
    ———-
    Kevin Bonham said last night that Phillips is now 54 ahead. This one will, as they say in the classifieds, go down to the wire.

    As much as I hope Phillips, Butler and KK to win in Gilmore, Griffith and Fowler, Butler and KK have already conceded and Phillips may not win.
    Yes nath and Lars said that above three will be recipients of the Sophie award but the thing all 3 were effective in opposition and much more competent than Mirabella ever was.
    But the thing is Mirabella is now drawing a fat salary on government teet being parachuted in FWC in the last days of previous LNP government.

  43. Shellbell @ #40 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:38 am

    “simon holmes à court@simonahac
    ·7h
    43% primary.
    @AngusTaylorMP is in the death zone. not this election, maybe next.”

    Why? In a probably high water mark election none of his opponents got over 20%. ALP will never win the seat and the well resourced independent got 15%.

    Inquiries will be had.

  44. ‘Socrates says:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:31 am

    Morning all. Despite disappointment in Sturt a Labor majority still looks more likely than not. The more I think about it, government with Greens and/or teals might also be a much better thing than some fear.
    ….’
    ================================
    No worries. Labor has staked its claim to the next election on no new taxes.
    Bandt has SEVEN DEMANDS $173 billion.
    The Teals wants are uncosted but certainly run to many tens of billions of dollars per annum.
    The debt is a trillion.
    The planned deficit over forward estimates is around a quarter of trillion.
    The uncapped demand (jobkeeper, age pensions, disability allowance) is highly likely to grow.
    The chief export underpinning for the budget – iron ore and fossil fuel export royalties are probably on the high side in the current budgets.
    Labor has flexibility around regulation and subsidies and could talk with reasonable Teals about those.
    Other than that, additional taxes are out of the question.
    Labor can also deal with the Teals on government processes and consultation.
    Albanese and all Labor MPs who were part of the RGR years and part of the last nine years know two things:
    1. The Greens will bag any wins and brag about them. They will then bag Labor for not being good enough. Relentlessly and ruthlessly. This is classic behaviour by the Greens have form as bad faith negotiators.
    2. Labor will be made to wear the pain of unpopular decisions.

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