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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Tom @ #39 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:38 am
That too.
I think that, with the Liberals electing Dutton as their leader, and with Tudge demanding to be on the Shadow Front Bench, they are still in a government mindset where they believed they were impervious to scrutiny.
The disadvantage in Australia for the anti-woke brigade is that the Labor party is in the centre on that kind of matter. The Greens are certainly to the left of Labor on wokeness. Anti-woke only works because some of the Democrats are running way ahead of the rest of the country. It’s so successful because the centre of the country thinks “the Democrats are crazy left and the Republicans are crazy right, I am going to stay home” – usually not realising that in their district, one of the candidates probably has much more moderate views that are similar to theirs.
Dutton will struggle because look at a map. Queensland is solidly LNQ, the rest of the country barely has any Libs. All Australians are at least a little parochial. That’s why there should be an LNQ party room. Without it both the Libs and the Nats are dominated by the LNQ and they will be seen that way.
Maybe Bridget Archer is the wrong person – she would be someone who aims to the get the Teal seats back, and they might not be coming back. Maybe it should be someone specially selected to make Melbourne’s outer suburbs swing and put into Tudge’s seat. If the tweet Confessions posted is any guide it really might be that the Teals are the next opposition in Australia anyway.
Shellbell @ #43 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:44 am
Andrew is my local member. I have had a few dealings with Andrew, a good man and I agree, he should go a long way. Capable and honest.
bug1 @ #45 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:45 am
I certainly hope it does as well. Labor’s #3 candidate for the Senate is a lovely Afghan refugee woman.
If the national party had guts and spilt from the coalition , that will make it even more difficult for the Liberal party to get into government for a long time
Felix the Cassowary,
Queensland is almost like two different states! LNQ and Greensland!
Should be an interesting day ahead – especially if we see more postals in the three Labor “possibles” of Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore. Of the three, I am most sceptical about Labor’s prospects in Gilmore, but Kevin Bonham’s analysis (if correct) does give some Labor some hope, as indeed it would also point to a Labor “hold” in Lyons.
We probably won’t know the Brisbane outcome for sure until the full preference count at the end of next week, but if the initial postal vote trend on primaries continues, Labor will be well placed.
It is unclear when the absents will get counted – from memory, there is usually a delay of a few days. Maybe tomorrow? WB might be able to enlighten us. The absents will play a key role in all 3 seats and there are significant numbers of them – 3600 in Brisbane, 2600 in Lyons and 1650 in Gilmore. They are usually better for Labor than postals.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:31 am
“I’m also in the don’t underestimate Dutton camp. We’ve all said exactly the same about Abbott and then Morrison, and both went on to be elected PM. The same can happen with Dutton.
The big advantage he has being from the rightwing faction is the capacity to unite the party, which was what Abbott and Morrison were able to do. And with fewer moderates now in the partyroom, there are less Liberal MPs to speak out against the new leader.”
While I think that is true, the problem this time around is that the voting population has moved on, they’ve tasted the Teals and Greens. So although conservatives will coalesce around Dutton, their policies are what lost them this election and returning to even more conservative, climate change denial policies, as advocated by their minority of supporters will only further isolate them.
A distinctly fist-shaped wave from David Pope, somewhat reminiscent of Hokusai’s “The Great Wave off Kanagawa”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Wave_off_Kanagawa
Labor does a reasonable job in government this term, Labor supporters and other non lib/nats supporters can be comfortable , there will be no prime minister Dutton
A reset in the messaging from the Liberals would do heaps, IMO.
Morrison basically spoke to blokes, behaved like a bloke, and engaged in blokey stunts for three solid years.
He was clueless when it came to seeing women as anything other than lesser Jenny Handmaidens OR witch devils.
He was systematically keen on demonizing and dehumanizing various sets of ‘others’.
Ruston as leader would connect well with the Teal Brigade, IMO.
Dutton is smart and will do a pragmatic reset.
There are significant structural problems. The Nationals broke ranks during the campaign on climate and are heading further into this sunset in response to the election.
There are not a lot of women, let alone women of talent, in the Party room.
The Queensland MPs have an electorate that has strong elements of xenophobia. There is a structural risk of leaving this cohort behind.
There is a lack of incumbents.
There is a swag of newly marginal seats.
The merger in Queensland makes it difficult for the Liberals to move the Coalition to the centre.
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Then there are some strengths that Dutton will exploit effectively:
The economy is in for a rough time with unemployment sure to grow.
Companies are going to collapse.
The building industry, hitherto sustained by a colossal infusion of government cash and credit, is in for a major contraction.
The global supply chain situation is bad and may get worse.
A Labor Government which is either in minority or a heart attack away from minority in the House and having to work with a hostile Senate.
An increasingly uncertain or dangerous national security situation.
Unmet expectations as the Teals meet with the realities of a trillion dollar debt and burgeoning uncapped social servicing needs.
It’s ironical that while the Libs were wheeling out John Howard to try to save tottering seats around our broad brown land, his former bailiwick of Bennelong was going down the gurgler.
Is Barnaby doing all the TV programs because he’s trying to protect his leadership of the National Party? Seems like that to me!
Some talk this morning that Jason Clare will get the Home Affairs portfolio, a reward for all his good work during the election campaign.
@ Roger Miller
“Bellwether, the death of Murdoch influence had been forecast for the last 20 years. I will believe it when I see it.”
So what did we witness on Saturday? A minor dismemberment? ‘Tis but a scratch?
‘The Toorak Toff says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:14 am
It’s ironical that while the Libs were wheeling out John Howard to try to save tottering seats around our broad brown land, his former bailiwick of Bennelong was going down the gurgler.’
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Tin ears abound.
Its also beyond belief , people are already panicking and the new parliament sitting has not even begun
I will predict Labor gets to 76, adding on Lyons and Macnamara and Richmond.
Gilmore is a chance, although I’m pessimistic about that one.
A shame about Deakin, the Labor candidate seems like the sort of young bloke who’d make a good contribution in parliament, bloody Sukkar, but he obviously had his postal voting organised far better than the Labor people.
Brisbane I guess won’t be decided until next week, still a possibility for Madonna Jarrett.
Jerome Laxale hasn’t claimed Bennelong yet and Simon Kennedy hasn’t conceded, but I’d agree with the prediction from both Anthony Green and William on that one.
Tom,
I have always been interested in Calare as I have a block of land in Canowindra. I met the late Peter Andren who ran as Independent and was also a good man.
‘Bellwether says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:17 am
@ Roger Miller
“Bellwether, the death of Murdoch influence had been forecast for the last 20 years. I will believe it when I see it.”
So what did we witness on Saturday? A minor dismemberment? ‘Tis but a scratch?’
======================================
A systemic problem for Murdoch is ageware: hardcopy and ad-riddled free-to-air. While social media can be a Cooker-style curse it also opens up sources of information that Murdoch cannot control.
Makes good sense to put Clare back into home affairs. For that matter what not put other former ministers back into their old ministries where possible? A decade later but surely that past experience will give them some head start.
Albanese will need to avoid hiccups wherever possible as I don’t expect the MSM to give him any breathing room.
Boerwar @ #69 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:22 am
The team at ALP Spicy Memes had a cracker of a campaign. As did Tik Tok. Both popular with the younger generations of voters.
edit: pic post fail
There’s a smashingly good photo of Albo leading The Guardian live stream. Trim, taught and terrific down to the details – serious, seriously smart, good cloth, good cut, jacket buttoned up, cuffs perfect, good tie (how hard are good ties) and a great wave. That’s our leader. So proud.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/may/24/australia-election-2022-news-live-update-anthony-albanese-to-meet-joe-biden-in-tokyo-penny-wong-teal-independents-peter-dutton-barnaby-joyce-quad-meeting
Is it too early to start a ‘Shellbell for FICAC!’ campaign? 😀
Next RBA meeting on 7 June. Will Labor be able to ease the squeeze and keep rates down?
Socrates: Re Support for the The Teal members.
A very thoughtful and considered response to this electoral movement and one which the ALP should heed.
This community based group have achieved something which the ALP has been unable to do in 122 years since Federation – ousted entrenched Tories within their personal fiefdom.
These MP s should be treated with great respect and consideration, and through legislative consultation, be allowed to be active participants in the parliamentary progress.
Being seen to be active in the parliamentary process won’t harm the ALP, it will enhance its reputation and be seen to be governing for all Australians – in addition to keeping, hopefully, a generation of Australians from voting Liberal.
Similarly, let’s extinguish the so-called Green – Labor wars, for the common good of Australia.
The Liberal seats which they have won in Brisbane, may have been winnable for Labor, maybe not, but combined with the ALP & Independent results have allowed Australians to consign the worst administration in history to the history books.
As admirable as the fantastic results from WA were – electoral swings come and go and we need to support those candidates who will help to keep the Tories in permanent opposition.
ItzaDream at 8:26 am
try it with jpg instead of jpeg . I don’t think it likes the ‘olde’ abbreviation.
Confessions @ #31 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:31 am
I’m sure a couple of Teals would be happy to offer ongoing critique of any lurching to the right by Dutton and the remnant Liberal Party. Keeps them in the public eye and reminds supporters why they voted for them and not the Libs at the last election.
He needs to work on his Vulcan salute. 😀
Itza
Here ya go.
Yep, it was your ‘jpeg’ wot dunnit , or rather, did not do it.
“Is it too early to start a ‘Shellbell for FICAC!’ campaign? ”
Why? What’s he been up to, C@t?
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:29 am
Next RBA meeting on 7 June. Will Labor be able to ease the squeeze and keep rates down?’
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Rate rises baked in for the next 12-18 months.
Another legacy of Frydenberg and Morrison.
This will have a huge real and psychological impact on a generation cocooned by a trillion dollar debt.
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:29 am
Next RBA meeting on 7 June. Will Labor be able to ease the squeeze and keep rates down?
—————–
Morrison and his cronies done the damage for the interest rates to rise for a while
“Is it too early to start a ‘Shellbell for FICAC!’ campaign? ”
Let me reflect on that for a little bit….
No it’s not.
In all seriousness, a Federal Court judge with a record of churning out work quickly would be good. Justice Thawley maybe.
If you get what a court can or is willing to spare (which is where NSW is and has been often in the past), you will end up with someone who tolerates court cases that wind through the system slowly etc. That is the constant, most of the time, in corruption commissions in Oz.
Plus beef up the auditor-general give that it is a likely source of ICAC work.
Don’t underestimate Dutton – although if they move to the right that means labor/independents has the centre with the greens to the left.
Are there enough trump like voters in the right # of seats for this to work, or will they lose even more seats?
I guess time will tell.
Macca RB
‘
…Similarly, let’s extinguish the so-called Green – Labor wars, for the common good of Australia….’
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Good point. The Greens are out to destroy Labor. How do you suggest fixing that?
There is 100% certain , the lib/nats in opposition will bring back their bellowing louder than ever before
I will say I am surprised at one thing.
Only a few years ago the WA re-run senate election produced 3 Coalition, 1 Labor, 1 Green and 1 Palmer United. The elected Labor Senator was Joe Bullock who was conservative in all but name (and post-Senate he defected to the Liberals), for an effective five-one right-left split. This year they may split two-four instead.
I don’t think it will last, but weird things can and do happen.
Thanks for the LNL link ‘fess. Savva’s thoughts on Dutton were interesting; another one in the ‘he’s really not a monster’ brigade. Maybe. But without the wheels of government, the buttons and bows and flags, the endless resources to self-promote, and a hardly outstanding parliamentary presence (sit down Boofhead), I’m yet to be convinced he’s got LOTO goods. Then there’s the Pacific Islands Water Lapping At Their Feet albatross. Toss in Ley or Andrews. Yeah Nah. I reckon they’re mincemeat in the making.
poroti @ #79 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:33 am
Gawd, how good is it having a leader who can actually dress properly! Gone is the dishevelled, doesn’t give a shit Scomo and in his place someone who carries an air of authority.
Building a tank farm/s and bringing our paid-for strategic petroleum reserve onshore would be a good start.
“The Greens are out to destroy Labor. How do you suggest fixing that?”
Convince voters that Labor are the most deserving of their votes. When McGowan won his huge majority, when Andrews won big at an election etc. how much of their time was spent talking about and campaigning against the Greens?
Itza:
I think what she was saying is that he is capable of pivoting. The question is whether he will.
As I conveyed on here, the Australian citizens of Chinese extraction spoke on Saturday in Chisholm
There will be no RC into media ownership – rather a recalibration of free to air product particularly sport
The bias of media is well understood – and the credibility or lack thereof will be the albatross around the necks of media organisations financially (look at the red ink on the Balance Sheet of Murdoch, the history of Fairfax with 9 giving rise to an Phoenix Company and the demise of 10 with a current liability converted to Capital. In regard Stokes, look at the results in WA)
The other issue is the Victorian ICAC moving past the “low hanging fruit” referred to it by the Victorian Parliament (including with tape recordings) to the misuse of Electorate Offices and public money elsewhere (noting that branch stacking is not against any Liberal Party Victorian Division Rules, so differing from the Labor Party and the reason why, despite the resignation of Bastiaan, there was found to be no impropriety by Andrews and Sukkar – noting also who conducted that review)
Labor needs to govern
These other matters will play out as background noise
Confessions @ #92 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:40 am
Indeed. I was musing on effectiveness.
‘ltep says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:40 am
“The Greens are out to destroy Labor. How do you suggest fixing that?”
Convince voters that Labor are the most deserving of their votes. When McGowan won his huge majority, when Andrews won big at an election etc. how much of their time was spent talking about and campaigning against the Greens?’
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That is a suggestion for how Labor wins the war. It does not remove the war.
It never surprises me that once someone gets a title, the requisite demeanour and acknowledgement, previous criticisms of the mien just disappear….All attempts by the the disgraced Murdoch press and the Stokes’ one for good measure, to question “Who is Albanese?” and “Not Fit for Purpose” and “He can’t even say Australia” are of nothing…….
The picture of Albanese on the steps from the plane show how wrong these critics were to overestimate the ability to make shit stick.
On the other side, the more Morrison kept getting dressed up in stupid dress stunts (not daggy, stupid) the more pathetic he looked….
In the end the Murdoch press could not make Humpty Dumpty look the real deal…………..
‘Jaeger says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:40 am
The global supply chain situation is bad and may get worse.
Building a tank farm/s and bringing our paid-for strategic petroleum reserve onshore would be a good start.’
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Indeed. But that does not begin to address the supply chain chaos out there.
I was told that a major german company had gone from around a million euros a month for its fuel payments to eight million euros a month.
Companies that are locked into fixed prices contracts are in deep doo doo.
Thanks everyone. Can’t see that photo too often. (disclaimer: I’m a bit besotted!). It’s really caught the moment; not the moment moment, but *the moment* moment. I hope that’s perfectly clear.
And how good is two day threes. It’s like flying to London for free without jetlag.
Tricot
Albanese’s pre-election makeover gave him dignitas.
This was, rightly, perceived as a threat.
The Democracy Murdercrat response (aided and abetted by the ABC and a certain witless Guardian journo) was classic projection.
The Libs could elect a dog turd rolled in glitter as their leader and the media would work there arses off to convince the public that the Libs gold was PM material. They’ve done it before with success.
So I won’t be underestimating any Lib leader.
But if Labor and Marles in particular aren’t preparing to go through the mess of defence acquisitions and using that to beat Dutton over the head with they really aren’t trying. And that’s before you get to Border Farce and Home Affairs.
Albo invited the Coalition and the media to trawl his record in infrastructure. You never heard back from them because it was a record of success. We shouldn’t be so coy about shouting Dutton’s ‘successes’ from every rooftop.