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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Arky says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:06 pm
@Pi – how good are used cars!?!?
___________________
Well we had a Kevin Dennis a PM for 4 years with SfM
Upnorth @ #989 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:04 pm
And Brisbane.
michael @ #999 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
Too bad. So sad. maybe the Liberals should have selected Kate Chaney and not some religious whackjob?
DPRee @ #946 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:39 pm
These organisations (who come up with the ratings) must be pollsters too. Anyone know how they work? At least political polls get a hard recalibration every now and again. In other words, is there any measure of TV rating accuracy?
I agree with this article. IMO any reset will not be quick.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/the-rhetorical-heat-might-be-coming-out-of-the-australia-china-relationship-but-theres-no-fundamental-shift-yet
the greens are the lefts uap and one nationhow ever the dayley attacks on greens and there suporters are tiring how come so many labor suporters hate the greens more then the liberals a shame rex patrick did not get up was doing a good job in sa but borwer are you sugesting that we work with liberals who block any climate action and blockt evrything in 22007 or greens who vote with labor 80 percent are the greens worse then liberals who pick on trans gender kids to get votes off people
I speculate that the powers that be in Beijing have been mulling over Ukraine, and what happens when a major power gets seriously offside with the West, and have decided that, all things considered, this might be a good time to smooth things over with Oz.
E G Theodore at 6.38
”
Beemer:
It doesn’t matter why Thatcher closed coal mines but she closed them and coal mines will close because its cheaper to get energy from other sources.
The nationalised UK coal industry was reduced in size (from about 500K workers to about 200K) by Wilson and Callaghan with some care and in cooperation with the unions. Baroness Thatcher just added a whole lot of nastiness, fighting and unnecessary pain.
Mr Howard did exactly the same with the waterfront in Aus – Messrs Hawke and Keating had fixed the actual problem (workforce carefully reduced from 12K to 2.4K) and Mr Howard just wanted a confrontation for political reasons.”
This is why I hold to my axiom ‘Labor govts always disappoint, but you don’t want the alternative.’
I despise Right wing govts for their 1) lack of concern for ordinary working people; and 2) seeming joy in using/abusing ordinary working people for their own political ends.
C@tmomma says: Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:03 pm
He actually popped up in series 6 of the “Australia, If You’re Listening” series recently. This was the series on Australia’s climate wars history and was quite good. Anyway, he was interviewed in the series and said that many of the Coalition MPs except the sience on climate change, but oppose action purely for political gain (or something like that).
I really hope we can get to the bottom of that $500K payout.
still anoyed that greens votid to give mor funding to private schools with gonskey 2.0 which the authur admitted later on was rubish cutting millions out of publick schools how with out the greens we would not have same sex marige one nation is more of a protest part and uap then greens but dont understand how victorian labor right hates greens but prefers liberal party who votes against evry thing only option for labor is libs grreens or lambi pocock should we justlet libs win after they distroyed our economy andforeign afairs
“ There should be one more batch of around 2000 postal votes added to the tally in Brisbane sometime tonight – I’m not sure how quick the AEC is putting the fighters online but the count was completed around 4:30pm. I can’t remember the outcome off the top of my head but it will increase Labor’s primary vote lead a little bit more – maybe to around 200 votes. The gap between Labor and Greens was smaller than the first three batches – too early to know if that’s a trend or an outlier.”
Thanks AB. From your earlier sampler of how preferences are breaking down (and WB’s examination of how ON and UAP tended to favour the greens over labor in 2019) then … Brisbane looks promising for the Greens. It seems that there will be around 7,000 votes between AJP, UAP, LDP and ON to distribute at the end and the Greens may end up with say 1400 to labor’s 700 out of that total. So, labor would need a lead after all the postals (and other outstanding ballots of course) of at least 500 to be competitive, and probably 1,000 to be safe.
Any idea of how many postals are outstanding, past that 2,000 processed today, AB?
That’s great news. North Korea has its Covid outbreak under control.
Apparently there are rumors swirling around the Liberal Party that Peter Dutton might have an image problem… It might even make him ‘hard to sell’ to voters !
They are really lifting their game plan after this dramatic loss, never fear, their master strategists will just have to trick people better, that should work.
More seriously, they really should be appointed an interim leader for a few months while they do their review, and chose a leader capable of adopting its conclusions.
Rossmore says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:10 pm
Yes Thatcher closed UK coal mines, but not for environmental reasons……
…rather, she sought a political confrontation. The Apostasy have the same motivations here. Confrontation and intransigence are among their attention-getting devices.
bc @ #1008 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:18 pm
How old is he now? 10?
Has any Australian federal opposition leader installed immediately after their party lost government then gone onto to become PM?
BeaglieBoy says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:58 pm
hla…..That was my big hug from C@t ……and I have more than a passing resemblance to Tinky Winky
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Ah, they are all four of them old friends. So short is the time we get with our children as tinies. Sometimes I sing them various songs from Teletubbies and these days I get the “oh Mum!”.
I do hope you have a nice pink handbag.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:12 pm
Upnorth @ #989 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:04 pm
Centre says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:01 pm
As it stands on the ABC News 24 Channel it’s:
– Labor 74
– Coalition 56
– Other 15
– 6 Undecided
I’m on Labor for a minority government, I don’t think I’m going to get the cash.
中华人民共和国
I haven’t been following closely cobber but Macnamara and Lyons looking good for Labor. That would be 76 and a Majority. But there would be other diggers here know more than me hey.
And Brisbane.
中华人民共和国
My darling C@t if Labor does take Brisbane I may well be forced to have another drink. Fingers crossed.
Taylormade at 6.55 re employment summit…
You can’t stand it, can you? Not only did Labor have the temerity to get elected, they’re threatening to deliver on their commitments!
I nominate you for part of the Employment Summit Stenographic Team!
Peter Dutton’s dour authoritarianism, combativeness and culture warrior credentials would play well with the Liberal base but it’s hard to see his appeal extending much further.
The Lorax @ #984 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:59 pm
The point is that people could have contributed earlier but didn’t and then wanted to relitigate after the event.
Noise increased as the pandemic travel bans eased but I can tell you as someone who has lived in the same area for 7 decades that aircraft noise here is less than before the new runway was opened. The new runway is actually further away from residential areas than the old one and many flight paths were changed to minimise time spent above houses.
I actually followed the new runway construction and implementation fairly closely so I’m pretty confident of what I am saying .
Also Labor has a strong record on aircraft noise in Brisbane because Kevin Rudd as member for Griffith fought a continuing and reasonably successful campaign to have flight paths altered and operating times managed well before the new runway was built
alias @ #1017 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:03 pm
To my knowledge, not since the 1900s-10s period. But just remember: just because something is unprecedented, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s impossible – there’s always a first time.
I’m hoping like just about everybody else in the electorate that this election will finally end the climate wars for good.
Albo has also promised to;
a) lower energy prices,
b) lower the cost of living, and
c) increase wages.
Good times ahead obviously.
Dutton as LOTO?
I doubt that will play well in the Teal seats and other progressive electorates.
Dickson is now under a 2% margin, so he will have to focus on keeping that, especially if the Green wave keeps heading westward.
citizen @ #785 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
It’s beyond my talents to complete this joke, hoping someone here has the necessary. (Photoshop is evil.)
Q: How many puppies does it take to change a Dutton?
A: ???
Thanks Wat Tyler.. yes I get your point about a first time, but it’s genuinely hard to see Dutton becoming that trailblazer.
Late Riser, I look at TV ratings via the link I posted. Here is a bit more about that site: https://tvtonight.com.au/about. I believe it uses OzTAM data which is the official and recognised collection of TV ratings data: https://oztam.com.au/AboutOzTAM.aspx
Alias at 7.33
“Has any Australian federal opposition leader installed immediately after their party lost government then gone onto to become PM?”
Not since WW2. I choose not to have a grasp of the situation before then!
Thanks ST. I kind of begs the question of why, if Dutton is as ambitious as we believe he is, he would wish to take the poisoned chalice now? I suppose the answer might be that he sees economic stormy weather ahead and sees the possibility of a one-term government on that basis.
What are the pairing conventions with respect to cross bench? Just pondering in the instance that the ALP is stuck on 75. Do they need to offer a pair to anyone or just the opposition?
C@tmomma @ #1013 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:33 pm
Speaking of how old people look, have a look at Rick Springfield at nearly 72, he has found the fountain of youth.
https://youtu.be/5dwvYqs9owY
Late Riser @ #1026 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
Two purebreds and a mongrel, spot the mongrel.
DPRee @ #1028 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:44 pm
Thanks. Interesting reading. They describe several thousand permanently monitored homes giving them with minute by minute reporting. I wonder how they know how many people are actually watching, and whether they care? (Is that why advertising is so loud?) Thanks. 🙂
Alias at 7.49 re ‘new’ Opposition Leaders…
I heard someone in the meeja say something years ago that wasn’t total crap: people who aspire to lead political parties often have a bit of a ‘messiah complex’ about them. “I’ll be first…” etc.
Also worth noting that no govt since WW2 has had less than 2 terms (Whitlam had to win 2 elections for the privilege of serving 2 years 11 months).
So, PM Dutton (or whoever the Libs pick) in 3 years’ time is ‘not completely impossible’!
“ What are the pairing conventions with respect to cross bench? Just pondering in the instance that the ALP is stuck on 75. Do they need to offer a pair to anyone or just the opposition?”
Depends what the vote is. In the Senate, the crossbench does get paired.
All this prompted me to look at Sportsbet. Next election odds: Labor $1.45, LNP $2.70.
Perhaps more interestingly: Littleproud is $1.90 to be Nats leader, Barnaby, $2.10.
(No market available on Libs leader.)
alias says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:49 pm
Thanks ST. I kind of begs the question of why, if Dutton is as ambitious as we believe he is, he would wish to take the poisoned chalice now? I suppose the answer might be that he sees economic stormy weather ahead and sees the possibility of a one-term government on that basis.
中华人民共和国
As he would be a member of the Parliamentary Pension scheme (abolished in 2004) he may want to keep his Salary up until he pulls the Pin. Not sure, but LOTO may pay as much as a Minister. If it drops his Pension may drop too.
Centre,
Are you the same centre that used to post here yonks ago, or another person entirely?
Good to have you back, if it is.
So…..Dutton is the contender for LOTO? Much sadness. 🙂
And Tudge, the invisible man is not NOT part of any cabinet?? More sadness. 🙂
On Tudge, now that he is an opposition backbencher, are we likely to find out why the previous govt paid out lots a $ to his ex lover / staffer ??
@work to rule, good question. Pairs are, for want of a better term, a Westminster Convention Derivative. That is, Standing Orders recognise the practice, but do not regulate it. It is very much a gentleman’s agreement between the major parties – with no recourse should someone renege (Bernie Finn has form in this area from memory).
So if the crossbench want to observe pairs, they can. If they don’t, cool. But I would expect they would never dishonour an agreed pair.
@ajm
As Kevin would say, the good burghers of Griffith might disagree that aircraft noise has decreased. I emailed Terri about this in the last week of the campaign and got a form letter response. I’m under no illusions the Greens can achieve much on this, but big chunks of the Griffith and Brisbane electorates are affected, and these seats are likely to remain marginal.
What riot boy says about the libs is so true. They will do anything for political gain even shoot themselves in the foot. Remember Goodwin Grech what a desperate folly that was. I remember some of the pathetic stunts Joh Petersen used to pull back in the day. How does this kind of stuff work!!! And why would you bother, the rich have a lot more to lose out of climate disasters than I do.
Yes, the same person NathanA.
And hi to Confessions and Catmomma, hope you are all well.
No, I just wanted to check the latest count, too busy to post.
Late Riser, your comment earlier that TV ratings collection and election polling seem similar is correct. The smallish number of people monitored for what they watch on TV is extrapolated to give overall ratings. Seems to be similar to election polling. For example, there is about 74% of the federal election results currently counted, but they are accurately able to call seats won already based on how the numbers are trending. Of course TV ratings data collection has changed and automated over the years. As a child were so excited as a man knocked at our door and spoke to our mum and gave her a ratings log to fill in with what we watched, which was collected at the end of the time period.
I definitely not at all pessimistic right now and I am not encouraging being nervous in the slightest bit. If Labor do an adequate enough job in the eyes of voters in the next term then Dutton will be no threat. However, don’t get cocky. A lot of people on the left side of politics thought people like Abbott and Trump were both unelectable fools who would be an easy win too.
Centre @ #1043 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:09 pm
Hi Centre!
For two days I have neither seen nor heard Morrison.
Absolute bliss!
BK @ #1045 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:16 pm
Beetrooter still around.
The Silver Bodgie,
The mouth moved but the forehead didn’t. 😉