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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Rossmore @ #879 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:10 pm
Which is why it is better to look at the GHG emissions from the energy sector, rather than just coal consumption. It gives you a better feel for what you can achieve when you remove coal as an energy source.
C@t:
And not just one, either:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anika_Wells
Trent
Keep posting your analysis because karma happens.
Asha @ #900 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:19 pm
THREE!?! 😯
test 2
Mexicanbeemer @ #898 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:19 pm
Yep. Australia just voted for Wokeness last Saturday!
C@tmomma
“So, maybe the Greens supporters should stop attacking US all the time?”
I can’t speak for anyone else, but I almost only post here to correct gross misrepresentations of the Greens.
I can’t recall ever attacking the ALP – except with regards to the 2009 events. And am happy to not talk about it if the ALP peeps here stop as well.
I don’t bring up ALP policies or attack individual ALP members. Mostly because in the end that’s what I vote for.
Rossmore
It doesn’t matter why Thatcher closed coal mines but she closed them and coal mines will close because its cheaper to get energy from other sources.
‘Bellwether says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:13 pm
@ Boerwar
Trouble is with Dutton, on the rare occasions that he smiles he transforms from a potato to a puffer fish.’
—————————
My view is that that is OK for potatoes but that it is unfair on puffer fish. There’s a fine line in there somewhere.
So who is going to be the youngest Member of Federal Parliament this term?
On the topic of late postals – just using Macnamara as the example because it just updated, another 1000 were just received – do people think those postals received this week are likely to be mostly Covid positive voters who planned to vote on the day?
And if so, how do people expect they will break, relative to other postal votes or ordinary votes in their respective seats?
Also is the EAV COVID19 polling place for each electorate the phone voting? So far they all just have zeroes across the board. Do we know how many people voted by phone?
PB = psephological boheme
“If Michael Sukkar survives in Deakin, as appears somewhat likely, I wonder if he might emerge as a dark horse leadership contender?”
Please, No.
Astrobleme
How are the Ukrainians coming along?
Do you still support the halving of the ADF, and the ADF being turned into a Light Mobile Force after getting rid of all our ships, planes, helos, artillery, larger missiles, and tanks?
Asking for a friend.
Instead of being excited or recharged about their new leader, I sense the Libs are resigned to their new leader. Given the vagaries of the times, I question any attempts to link the political environment under Dutton to those of his predecessors. Times have changed but I doubt he or his party has. This time, things are different.
C-Dog at 5:35 pm :
Good comment. I agree with you that this is likely to be the high tide mark for Labor seats and that they are bound to lose some next time around.
Where I don’t agree with you is your prognosis that the Greens might win more next time. I feel that this might be the most they ever win in the lower house. There was so much of a build-up for action on climate change this election which definitely helped them win extra seats, and good on them, but I think we have seen a sea-change on climate change now and Australia is finally onboard with dealing with it and the L/NP won’t be able to reverse course again. There’s always a question of how much action we take and how quickly we accelerate the transition to renewable energy but that will be sorted out now between Labor and the Greens and Teals, and people wanting more action won’t be as motivating a force as people wanting *any* action and a stop to the blocking of action by the L/NP. As for the garbage identity politics that the Greens have been increasingly adopting, that is only going to hurt them in the medium term, with possibly some self-inflicted harm during this term of parliament, depending on how silly/toxic they get with it.
In the ACT I can see a Teal independent possibly standing and winning a seat for central (inner) Canberra. I’m actually a little surprised that they didn’t have a candidate this time.
And will there be other political interests that play the independent game that the Teals have now shown can work so well? Clive Palmer could have spent his money playing this strategy to much better effect than his complete failure with the UAP. So this is where I see things going – more independents funded by an ideologically supportive separate body. But for this to work, the independents do have to be genuinely independent and community supported and I don’t know if Clive would want to give money without having strings attached. (I don’t know; I haven’t actually followed his political machinations very closely and what he’s been getting / hoping to get out of them.)
Closing our coal mines may well not reduce emissions at all provided the world continues to burn coal anyway. That is why Albo trying to push other countries to cleaner forms of energy is far more important than anything else.
C@tmomma:
I could be wrong, but I believe it’s still Jordan Steele-John.
In the scheme of things any Liberal who takes on the leadership now is about two leadership changes away from the leader who will lead the Liberals to the next election.
‘Honest Bastard says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:27 pm
C-Dog at 5:35 pm :
Good comment. I agree with you that this is likely to be the high tide mark for Labor seats and that they are bound to lose some next time around.
….’
I confidently expect Labor to win an additional 5-10 seats in the next election.
Election day press release about asylum seeker boats ‘a disgrace’, Richard Marles says
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/election-day-press-release-about-asylum-seeker-boats-a-disgrace-richard-marles-says
The Morgan polling was pretty turdy, wasn’t it?
I can see that the next Labor campaign in Griffith will (a) explain why and how the Greens candidate lied through his teeth about airport noise and (b) promise that a re-elected Labor Government will address the issue.
This stuff writes itself.
Labor should rename the ABF Australian Customs. The ABF is forever tarnished by association with Dutton.
Jaeger says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:30 pm
Election day press release about asylum seeker boats ‘a disgrace’, Richard Marles says
Acting prime minister says information released by Liberal party about Sri Lankan boats being intercepted should not have been made public
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/election-day-press-release-about-asylum-seeker-boats-a-disgrace-richard-marles-says
=====================================
The infinite benefits of incumbency! The reverse ferret applied full throttle. The guy in the crosshairs? Well, sad to say, Dutton!
Asha @ #916 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:27 pm
Correctemundo: Born: 14 October 1994 (age 27 years)
But in the Lower House I wonder who it will be?
“If I am fortunate enough to be appointed attorney general in the Albanese Labor government, I would seek an early briefing from my department on a number of matters relating to the prosecution of Mr Collaery,” Dreyfus told Guardian Australia on Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/mark-dreyfus-flags-bernard-collaery-case-as-priority-if-appointed-attorney-general
With any luck the Lying Rodent Howard will be looking for cover..
Mexicanbeemer @ #906 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:23 pm
Unless you happen to own a coal mine near a coal-burning power plant, and have a huge amount of money invested in both assets, which would otherwise be in danger of becoming pretty damned worthless. Then, why would you not just continue to burn coal?
This is why having a policy to actively close coal-fired power stations is important. Or an emissions intensity scheme. Or a genuine emissions trading scheme, and not the half-baked “safeguard” scheme we have now (which Labor has adopted, but which was a legacy of Abbott’s “direct action” policy, which was designed to look like it would reduce emissions without actually achieving anything).
Boerwar @ #923 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:31 pm
Wouldn’t it be Karen Andrews, former Minister for Home Affairs?
Sceptic @ #925 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:32 pm
And Alexander Downer.
‘Shellbell says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:30 pm
The Morgan polling was pretty turdy, wasn’t it?’
================================
Inaccurate. But then the beauty of Morgan polling was that we knew it was inaccurate and in which ways it was inaccurate. Predictably bad.
Price of renewables going through the roof with the price of steel. Will get more expensive if there is no coking coal.
“Supply chain delays from China and the soaring cost of steel and other materials are combining to slow the advance of renewable energy in Australia and elsewhere, a leading insurer and industry groups say.
The cost of steel for wind turbine blades had risen by 50% or more since the Covid pandemic’s start, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted a scramble to accelerate the switch away from coal, oil and gas to clean energy alternatives, according to GCube, a global insurer of renewables that has recently opened its first Australian office in Sydney.
“You’ve almost got the perfect storm right now,” Fraser McLachlan, GCube’s chief executive said. “We’re seeing delays of six months at a minimum to get replacement parts and things like that coming out of China, sometimes more.”
To order a blade for a multi-megawatt sized turbine can now take as much as a year or longer, adding to windfarm operators’ costs. Supply chain disruptions caused by the extended lockdowns in China are also stalling supplies of solar panels, and may take months to be resolved, McLachlan said.
Delays to new projects or repairs to existing ones will not be welcome news for a power sector that has already seen a more than doubling in wholesale prices in the year to March, with further steep climbs since.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/24/supply-chain-delays-and-steel-costs-are-part-of-perfect-storm-stalling-renewable-energy-growth
Nicko @ #915 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:27 pm
Albo wants Australia to continue to mine and export coal.
Anyone making predictions about how many terms it will take the Liberals to to regain government or how many leaders they will burn through before that happens would do well to remember the fate of one Campbell Kevin Thomas Newman:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Queensland_state_election
(The 2017 and 2020 elections should also serve as an instructive lesson for anyone who assumes Labor’s slim victory means they are doomed to a short and unsuccessful reign.)
C@tmomma @ #923 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:32 pm
I wonder what Wyatt Roy is doing these days?
I can’t see why Labor can’t improve its position in 2025, particularly if it has runs on the board with climate change, integrity and equality, and has generally governed responsibly.
For a start, some of the seats currently in doubt (and a few which have recently just gone Liberal) will be ultra marginal, easy pick ups if even there’s a slight swing.
The Liberals look like going even nuttier than they have been, so more than a slight swing would be on the cards if this continues.
As Terri Butler’s parting shot suggested, some of those who have won seats (both Teal and Green) and can’t deliver will also be vulnerable.
Of course, a week is a long time in politics, and three years even more so, but there is no reason to believe that Labor can’t pick up more seats.
C@tmomma @ #925 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:33 pm
It was Dutton who was the public face of the announcement though, throwing it out there on election day.
Day 3 and the Rest of the World team is still chuntering out 98% of the world’s emissions. As it will on Day 30 and Day 300 and Day 900. Except it will be closer to 99% on Day 900.
If only the Rest of the World team had Labor’s aspirations for 2030!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
C&C
Yep. You are both right.
Actually, Morgan’s primaries weren’t that far from the mark in their last couple of polls.
He’s doing okay:
https://au.linkedin.com/in/wyattroy
BeaglieBoy @ Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:59 pm
“I think a crank is someone who is unable to post anything but the same one or two posts ad neuseum and tin-eared enough to ignore any arguments to the contrary or have any other opinions on anything outside of their obsessions”
The King is a fink!
Zoomster
Then there is the impact of redistributions because NSW might lose a seat.
Beemer:
The nationalised UK coal industry was reduced in size (from about 500K workers to about 200K) by Wilson and Callaghan with some care and in cooperation with the unions. Baroness Thatcher just added a whole lot of nastiness, fighting and unnecessary pain.
Mr Howard did exactly the same with the waterfront in Aus – Messrs Hawke and Keating had fixed the actual problem (workforce carefully reduced from 12K to 2.4K) and Mr Howard just wanted a confrontation for political reasons.
Upnorth you just have to stop all this practical, real world palaver.
Bandt promised during the election to SAVE THE PLANET.
And you are saying, ‘Yes, but… …’
That is NOT what Bandt’s kiddies want to hear.
I’d hate to be in the construction industry today.
If you signed fixed price contracts you are probably heading for the receivers.
If you didn’t you are probably scrambling to make sense of it all.
Source of TV ratings, see link below. For example, link is to Mon 23/05. Scroll down to the bottom to see ‘All Subscription Channels’ and programs on Sky. Then compare them to ‘All Free-to-Air’ programs listed separately and further above. Sky viewership/ programs are comparatively small. Example: Credlin and Paul Murray are top Sky programs at 80k viewers, compared to ABC news at 739k.
https://tvtonight.com.au/2022/05/monday-23-may-2022.html
aliassays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:18 pm
About time for another poll isn’t it?
_____________________
It will be a short honeymoon if they can’t get the cost of living under control. They campaigned on it going down not up.
Zoomster:
Agreed.
There are now a lot more marginals in Queensland too. Being in government may make further gains a bit trickier in 2025, but that’s far from a guarantee either – incumbancy has both its upsides and it’s downsides in this regard.
@Trent:
“ If it was still Danby it would be a different story, he was actually the reason I voted Greens for the very first time.”
But surely, you’d agree: Tel Aviv needs its Labor representation in Canberra.
On the other hand … maybe the Maoists were onto something when they gave him a flogging in the old AUS Bunfight s of the 1970s.
C-dog
I love your future projections, not for the results, but you’ve thought them out. Thanks.
Just scrolling through the different comments here, it may be that people are still thinking in a two party adversarial mindset. That it is you against the coalition, and everybody sticks to their tribe. I think that mindset is what is holding Australia back. I said in many workplaces, where it’s bosses against workers still. It’s diminishing, especially in tech start-ups (who don’t necessarily have unions to deal with).
This is what I really feel – and if I’m wrong in a few months, then I’ll say well it was worth a go.
• Albanese looks like someone who will consult beyond the Labour Party. So I see him talking with any number of independence and teals. If I were him, I would say the cross bench as for your passable extra support. Look at him overseas with the international leaders in Tokyo, and how him and Biden greeted each other. I see that connection mindset being used everywhere.
• did you see Jim Chalmers standing on the roadside with a sign thanking people for electing him? I don’t remember seeing anything like that before. Maybe others do, and fair enough, but it looks like a new thing. Did you see to connect with the local community and keep that going, because there’s going to be a lot of competition for the receipts from different groupings in the future.
• I guess the ALP could lose or gain seats in 2025 – however that is a lot of time between more climate disasters and economic growth or collapse; more was even in the neighbourhood; internal fighting. Maybe the pressure of the job will get to the Teals and they will fall apart….
Don’t worry about it too much. If the ALP fulfil what they say they will do, say around FICAC, then the Libs are going to be decimated. I’d say that the Teals are gonna hold and do very well, and I agree with you that they will expand and so will Greens.
It looks really exciting, and if it stays this way, politics may look like a more inviting profession to join. Look we’ve got an ex-Buddhist monk in WA!
It may be a tough climb for Alba, but I think he’s up to it and maybe just excel with the team behind him. And the Liberals may never get back into power!