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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Tom the first and best @ #878 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:10 pm
Where I live aircraft noise has DECREASED, just as it has in most parts of the city. A lot of effort went into designing new flight paths to achieve this. A few areas saw a slight increase or not much change. Most of those areas were at the wealthier end and particularly in Griffith. So the Greens made a great noise to enlist wealthy people to build their support. It’s a classic NIMBY campaign dressed up as environmentalism.
The Greens have gone on and on about lack of consultation prior to opening the second runway but from my observation the airport operator actually conducted pretty much a textbook consultation exercise.
It’s a case of some people not liking the result of proper process and going off like crying babies till they get their own way.
And if you wonder why lots of Labor people (like me) have it in for the Greens, this is a prime example.
happyez at 5.15 re alternatives to Daily Telegraph…
– The New Daily. Not much sport. Financed by industry super, so the Coalition tried to nobble it.
– The Saturday Paper
– FriendlyJordies. Not at paper at all, but a significant viewership
I wonder if some of Friendly Jordies more juicy accusations about the goings on in parliament house might be looked into….or that one which was quite complicated to follow concerning Duttons association with that car firm in Qld?
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:08 pm
“Have to say any green contribution that isn’t a bunch of recycled copy and paste Brandt Twitter posts is more than welcome”
Hear! Hear!
Ch9 news were on Scotland Isl as she arrived back home, greeting her with questions about her future.
I might have missed it but I don’t recall similar reports from outside the homes of Dave Sharma, Jason Fallinski or Trent Zimmerman asking them what they planned to do with their futures.
Hmmm…
Extrapolating from Zelenskiy’s own words, the Ukrainians are losing soldiers killed and wounded at a rate of around 200-400 a day or 6,000 to 12,000 a month or, say, up to 144,000 a year.
They can keep that up in terms of numbers for around 7 years but sooner or later the guys being fed into the meat grinder just all want to call it a day.
ajm
Aircrafts have become a got a lot quieter.
Craig Kelly should probably pay attention to what some of the Bond villains did to underlings who were no longer useful.
Before the election, the youngest member of the House was Philip Thompson, member for Herbert, born 1988.
I have no idea exactly when the Green in Brisbane (if elected) or Griffith was born but judging from the photos they are probably in contention.
I suppose it’s possible there’s someone younger who replaced a retiring MP in a safe seat and I haven’t sighted.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid: “Have to say any green contribution that isn’t a bunch of recycled copy and paste Brandt Twitter posts is more than welcome”
Griff: “Hear! Hear!”
Here HERE!
My issue with Danby is that I felt like he didn’t represent the interests of the seat, outside the Caulfield area anyway. But he was so fixated on Israel issues and the Caulfield community with such tunnel vision that the entire rest of the seat felt completely neglected. He was an awful local MP.
Josh Burns seems much more able to represent both the Caulfield community of interest (which in my view belongs alongside Malvern and Cargenie in Higgins anyway) AND the more progressive Port Phillip based community of interest.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:39 pm
Upnorth you just have to stop all this practical, real world palaver.
Bandt promised during the election to SAVE THE PLANET.
And you are saying, ‘Yes, but… …’
That is NOT what Bandt’s kiddies want to hear.
I’d hate to be in the construction industry today.
If you signed fixed price contracts you are probably heading for the receivers.
If you didn’t you are probably scrambling to make sense of it all.
中华人民共和国
Mea Culpa Mea Culpa – Unicorn Steel – I had forgotten the magical formula.
Anyway China is opening one of its’ Border Crossings to Mongolia for the first time in 9 months tomorrow because of COVID closures. China will kick start its economy post Shanghai lockdown, big infrastructure spend, lots of steel, lots of coking coal coming from Mongolia.
Trent at 5.27
I’m an ALP member. I encourage you to feel free to continue posting.
Occasionally I call people names (full disclosure.)
I’d like to help fund an artists’ colony somewhere in Macnamara in time for the next election. 🙂
Have been busy today. There was something on twitter about Pauline Hanson not having the numbers…is that true?
Quasar @ #965 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:50 pm
Are we talking votes, or neurons?
The Federal Government does not own any coal mines.
Taylormade @ #945 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:42 pm
The Libs said it for 9 yrs and it kept going up. You voted for them still.
Call me old fashioned but I am barracking for the lion in this one. The guy taunts it mercilessly… until the moment he puts his fingers within the reach of the Lion’s mouth…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-24/lion-bites-off-mans-finger-at-jamaica-zoo/101094638
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:55 pm
…………
#bighug#
————————————-
When I read this, I just regressed nearly 20 years to when I sat and watched Teletubbies with my tiny daughters. So adorable.
Q: Labor should rename the ABF Australian Customs. The ABF is forever tarnished by association with Dutton.
The name Border Force is disgusting- for 99 percent of its work it is a service to the public; at airports, docks etc….a service where the customer expects courtesy, efficiency and dare I say even friendly assistance.
Since it has become para-military it has become a disgrace.
The Age 24/05
High on the list is a planned employment summit that will bring the government, unions, businesses and non-governmental organisations to the table.
_____________________
Not another talkfest.
You would think they would have learnt after Rudds 2020 summit turned out to be a massive waste of time and money.
Just get on with it, they have had 9 years to plan what they would like to do.
Full disclosure that I’ve met Josh Burns and even worked on campaigns with Josh Burns so I can’t exactly say I’m unbiased or anything, but certainly I think he’s a hard worker and smart political operator. Provided good advice to the Higgins campaign this time, wasn’t just on his own campaign (for which he had a shoestring anyway, Labor didn’t put anything into defending inner city seats against the Greens and it showed) and it will be interesting to see if he gets rewarded at all with a ministry spot.
Whereas Danby was as Trent said the Minister for Israel who ignored the rest of his electorate and kept insisting for years that it was only his personal vote keeping Labor in the then Melbourne Ports. Whatever may once have been true, by the end he had a negative personal vote nearly losing it for Labor instead.
A new Twitter account to follow 😆
https://twitter.com/TotoAlbanese
Another thing The Labor government has saved Australia from
Anne Ruston being the health minister
Lol Taylormade
Dutton is ramping up his leadership push:
https://twitter.com/JamColley/status/1528655456016945152
“Have been busy today. There was something on twitter about Pauline Hanson not having the numbers…is that true?”
Unlikely. I think Kevin Bonham is going to kill the next person on Twitter making unsubstantiated claimed with no understanding of how Senate preferences work.
hla…..That was my big hug from C@t ……and I have more than a passing resemblance to Tinky Winky
Quasar @ #965 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:20 pm
That’s untrue. She is definitely in a good position to win re-election. The good news for left of centre voters is that it’s looking very much like it could be a 2 LNP – 2 ALP – 1 GRN – 1 PHON result, as opposed to a 3 LNP – 1 ALP – 1 GRN – 1 PHON result like in 2019.
Obviously gotta wait for all the votes to be counted and the preferences to distribute, so this is not said with any certainty.
Boerwar,
Russia is already there, with their soldiers leaving or surrendering in droves. As long as the West provides weapons the Ukrainians will fight for their country, killing Russian soldiers who have no idea of why they are attacking Ukraine.
That being said, I think this will go on until Putin kicks the bucket via illness. It could be a while.
Thank you all for your excellent feedback on my comment earlier about the state of play for 2025. Ill admit saying that there was ‘no doubt’ about LNP gaining in WA, SA and VIC was being a bit brazen. I agree with the general sentiment here that Labor might well up end like Palaszczuk here in Qld, gaining an increasingly large majority as the opposition becomes more and more incompetent. Big picture, I see a rabidly pro-coalition press, increasing green support and the rise of independents as threats to future labor majorities.
Alias:
Bahahaha!
@ajm
I followed a few aircraft noise forums and it definitely shifted votes to the Greens. I saw lots of comments from people saying they’d voted Greens at prepolls. You might call that NIMBYism but people didn’t feel listened to, and flight frequency increased over the course of the campaign.
Scott says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Lol Taylormade
中华人民共和国
And old Steelydan. That cobber plucked all his strings now, off plucking his eyebrows.
As it stands on the ABC News 24 Channel it’s:
– Labor 74
– Coalition 56
– Other 15
– 6 Undecided
I’m on Labor for a minority government, I don’t think I’m going to get the cash.
Just the thing for the front yard of a certain former PM.
“I might have missed it but I don’t recall similar reports from outside the homes of Dave Sharma, Jason Fallinski or Trent Zimmerman asking them what they planned to do with their futures.”
Nobody cares about them. Frydenberg got it a bit though. They lurked outside his electorate office and he drove up and then drove away again rather than run the tiny gauntlet. It was sad.
The Silver Bodgie @ #933 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:35 pm
Running the family strawberry farm I presume.
Centre says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 7:01 pm
As it stands on the ABC News 24 Channel it’s:
– Labor 74
– Coalition 56
– Other 15
– 6 Undecided
I’m on Labor for a minority government, I don’t think I’m going to get the cash.
中华人民共和国
I haven’t been following closely cobber but Macnamara and Lyons looking good for Labor. That would be 76 and a Majority. But there would be other diggers here know more than me hey.
For the record, I don’t dislike the greens. I just see them as a protest party, and an effective one. Some of the reasons they have so much support is because some of those messages have do resonate. But they don’t actually have a complete platform. Part of being a government is getting most of the people to agree that what you want is good for them. If you can’t get that to happen, burning the place down isn’t a solution. The Teals are a new thing. Perhaps it is the beginnings of the type of governance that Canada has. Or the UK. Australia is unique in its voting system as far as I’m aware.
But that’s a moot point. The ALP is the government now. It has an agenda that more than 50% of the people think is good enough if they had to choose. And they did. Federal ICAC. Powering Oz plan, which has suddenly become a “big agenda” post-election.
The greens get to decide whether they want to act like a legitimate political party, or they get raided by the Teals just like the ALP does. They are, after all, where the liberals used to be. I’d love to see some of the loopier greens policies ejected so that they could be a more representative party that recognizes that you do need that 50% thing to happen, or it doesn’t happen. That’s Australian democracy. Kind of the way it works.
But good fucking riddance to you special interests group managed used car salesman. If I never had to hear that voice again it would be too soon.
@Pi – how good are used cars!?!?
@ Andrew_Earlwood
There should be one more batch of around 2000 postal votes added to the tally in Brisbane sometime tonight – I’m not sure how quick the AEC is putting the fighters online but the count was completed around 4:30pm. I can’t remember the outcome off the top of my head but it will increase Labor’s primary vote lead a little bit more – maybe to around 200 votes. The gap between Labor and Greens was smaller than the first three batches – too early to know if that’s a trend or an outlier.
I understand that the Teals have clubbed together to throw in enough dough to put up a diorama overlooking Sydney Harbour, of Morrison and Deves – both wearing tutus – doing a pas de deux.
The plaque will be inscribed: ‘With all our gratitude. We could not possibly have asked for more!’
Taylormade @ #970 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:55 pm
Yep, that’s right the Hawke Accord Summit achieved nothing! 😆
Andrew Bartlett @ #992 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:07 pm
I would have thought the fighters were the Labor Scrutineers on the ground. 😀
Watching ABC news report of the Quad meeting, how good is it not to have a total embarrassment of a national leader representing our country in these meetings?
Pi,
Agree. I see the Teals as the Australian equivalent of the UK’s the Liberal Democrats.
‘Puffytmd says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 6:59 pm
Boerwar,
Russia is already there, with their soldiers leaving or surrendering in droves. As long as the West provides weapons the Ukrainians will fight for their country, killing Russian soldiers who have no idea of why they are attacking Ukraine.
That being said, I think this will go on until Putin kicks the bucket via illness. It could be a while.’
===============================
True about Russian casualties. This is the first time that Ukraine has put its battle casualties out to the public during what might be called the ‘Two Oblasts Campaign’.
True also about not knowing where any of this might end.
In Curtin, Hammond has pulled it back to 51-49 but she needed 30,000 postals not 20,000 so a long way short.