Click here for full federal election results updated live.
The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Beetrooter still around.
_______
For how long, I wonder.
The Silver Bodgie @ #1048 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:19 pm
I found it weird listening to him on the TV. He’s trying to sound serious and thoughtful. 😆
BK @ #1050 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:20 pm
We’ll find out on Monday.
michael @ #999 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
In Curtin, Hammond has pulled it back to 51-49 but she needed 30,000 postals not 20,000 so a long way short.
————————————————————
There’s about 11,500 votes left to count in Curtin according to the AEC – 5,000 postals and 6,500 absents/provisionals/pre-poll declarations. Hammond needs to get 60% of all of them which she is getting with postals but the problem for her is she is likely get a minority ~45% of the latter votes if previous elections are any indication.
Working on the assumption that Hammond continues to get 2PP 59% of postal votes but Chaney gets 2PP 55% of the other votes that on my calculation gives Chaney a 1,500 vote victory in the end 50.8%-49.2%.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:21 pm
The Silver Bodgie @ #1048 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:19 pm
BK @ #1045 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:16 pm
For two days I have neither seen nor heard Morrison.
Absolute bliss!
Beetrooter still around.
I found it weird listening to him on the TV. He’s trying to sound serious and thoughtful.
中华人民共和国
Who is this Morrison you cobbers are referring to?
Then why did he talk about exporting clean energy technology to Modi today?
And why is he talking about collaborating on addressing climate change today?
None of this has every been uttered by Scott Morrison or the LNP ever. But we all know P1s history of always bagging Labor, but for little to say about the LNP, infact when Scotty was going to announce net zero, P1 took it at face value, and P1 also reckoned the LNPs emission reduction numbers are to be believed even though anyone looking into it will point out most of it is based on land based accounting such as not chopping down a tree.
Nicko says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:25 pm
Albo wants Australia to continue to mine and export coal.
Then why did he talk about exporting clean energy technology to Modi today?
And why is he talking about collaborating on addressing climate change today?
___________________________________
It was reported in today’s AFR that Albo has promised the mining lobby that Labor would continue to mine and export coal – unless you think the AFR invented it , that seems pretty clear cut to moi.
As with the demise of Abbott the nation’s cartoonists will shed a little tear at the departure of SfM.
DPRee @ #1045 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:11 pm
The TV outlets use these figures to price their advertising, so I think they would raise a stink if they thought they were being short-changed.
With Sky News the wrinkle is that it also goes out on Free to Air in a lot of regional areas. I don’t know where that is accounted for. It might be included in the Sky News total or it might be included under the regional free to air stations. In that case you’d also have to look at their ratings for those broadcasts which might be a bit difficult to work out
So, after one of their worst drubbings, the Tory Party is going to elect Dutton as its leader; the Country Party, most likely Joyce. And while it’s true to say that the Nats held their own (+ 1 senator, mainly due to a s.44 issue), I doubt it had much to do with Les Patterson’s identical twin, the Nats more loyal to their local member more than they are with their leaders.
From Labor’s perspective, the election of Dutton – arguably the most repugnant person to ever high political hold office – is a boon; for it provides a stark contrast between the forces of light & dark, reinforcing the public perception that they haven’t learned any lessons from the election. Under Dutton, they may hold their own in Queensland(?) but fail miserably elsewhere. What you see is what you get with Dutton – vide, for example, McGowan’s recent critique of him.
But who else is there – Tehan? He seems a nice bloke but is markedly lacking in the charisma stakes. Karen Andrews? They wouldn’t give a woman the gig and besides, she’s pretty useless. I rather like Hastie. He presents well but being a former junior army officer, I don’t think he’d cope too well with the machination of his colleagues at the highest levels. He also apparently wears his religious beliefs on his sleeves.
Let’s face it: if the Cons don’t change their ways by adapting to the new
political paradigm, they’ll end up a disheveled, splintered party, which is not good for democracy. And, moreover, if they think – as I’m sure they do – that more of the same, with leaders like Abbott, Morrison, the odious Dutton, is the answer they’ll be in the wilderness until they find someone to lead them in the shape of, say, a Turnbull, a Hewson.
Anyway, what a great day was Saturday! And what excellent optics of Albanese meeting other world leaders, his back-story almost on par
with Lincoln’s. I must admit I had my doubts during the campaign but was more than presently surprised that he got back on his horse. He’s now ensconced for three years and I know he’ll grow into the job, reminding me of two other Labor luminaires – Curtin and Chifley.
MJ I agree with your analysis for Curtin bar one point. There are 20,600 postals issued and 17800 postals currently received. There could be more postals on top of the 5000 to be processed, but it won’t change the result. The closing date for postals is Friday week.
The climate policies of Morrison and Albo were lightyears apart.
Albo was to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 and Sco Mo was to cut emissions by 28% by 2030. Both had targets of net zero by 2050.
It saves the planet, let’s all move on…
Catmomma xx
Nicko @ #1056 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:25 pm
Like so many here, you read my posts through your own preconceptions … and find in them whatever you want to find, rather than what they actually say 🙁
If Dutton is the answer it must be a pretty stupid question…
PoliticsFederalAustralia votes
Liberals at lowest proportion of seats since party’s first poll in 1946
Katina Curtis
By Katina Curtis
Updated May 24, 2022 — 4.54pm
Lovely.. best news for … ever.
Andrew Earlwood at 6:02 pm
My take is that we are entering a very different world, as you say, with pitfalls and opportunities for all players.
May the devil take the hindmost.
This is also one reason I am not worrying about the minutiae right now. The political landscape is changing at a rate of knots right around the world now.
We had an extraordinary period of relatively little change in Australia, NZ, the USA and Western Europe from 1948 – 2016, the latter being the year that delivered both Brexit and Trump.
Since 2016, the rate of change for us “comfortable westerners” has been phenomenal, if little noticed by the majority of the populations of each of the countries involved.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world has been changing at a fast pace: the fall of the Soviet Union in circa 1990, leading to rising living standards and more freedom of movement in the former Warsaw Pact countries; (Never forget that in 1988, if you lived in Budapest, you could not just hop a train for Vienna); the rise of the Asian Tigers, including South Korea; the rise Latin America an an economic powerhouse, and the rise of both northern and Southern Africa as developed and educated people who add a strong voice to the world.
I do not think the next 3 years will rollout in Australia as some sort of fight between Labor and the Greens, as has taken place on PB in the last 3 days.
And please keep things in perspective – just because you think someone is Wrong On Pollbludger, and you keep arguing the point far into the night, does not mean you are winning heartland minds.
Yep, surely the Liberals in opposition can do better than Dutton as leader, Karen Andrews would be a better signal that they’re serious about winning back women in 2025 in those inner city seats they lost to the Teal candidates, the Greens and most importantly Labor.
Dutton is a huge turn off to the sort of voters the Libs need back in their camp if they’ve got a chance in 3 years time.
ajm, I’m not sure how the free to air Sky showing in regions is accounted for. Yes the OzTAM data used to price advertising is accepted methodology and run at arm’s length for the main commercial TV networks. ‘OzTAM Pty Limited is an independent company owned by Australia’s major commercial television broadcasters (the Seven Network, Nine Network and Network 10). OzTAM operates separately and independently from all broadcasters and has an independent, non-executive chairman. OzTAM also has an external technical auditor whose role is to ensure OzTAM’s panels perform to specification’.
But Karen Andrews, and just about any other female Liberal bar Bridget Archer, is one who bought the bill of goods Morrison was selling in exchange for a front bench position in his government. Silence on all the appalling issues around women especially. Essentially no different to the men.
the only real options are marise payne or bermingham bermingham is a bit robotick but on mesige and payne is perhaps best bet but being in the senate and stufing up solamon islands wont help wonder weather Alix hawke will stay on or be forced to resign has achieved litel in parliament other then factions morrison could not even unite right Cfw hatid him and hawke and she was a dutton suporter hawke and hughes must be moderits now james paterson was discribed as a moderit at some point
Gilmore Update: With all but 56 postal votes (& whatever else is still in mail system) counted, Constance leads by 143 votes.
There are 2,127 absentee votes, 760 provisional votes and 3,671 pre-poll declaration votes to go.
Last election absentee votes went 57% to Labor, provisional 64% and pre-poll declaration 53%. A lot of provisional votes are discarded during the process.
So it might be a squeaker. So close that it squeaks.
To completely change the subject since the Pandemic started over two and half years ago most people myself included handled little cash and payed by card tap. Today when I went to my local Bakers Delight they have introduced a surcharge on this method of payment to the extent of NINE cents per card use and when queried said it has been a practice for some time. For the life of me the tap put the payment into their account almost straight away instead of the cash laying in tills until the shop manager or owner takes is to the bank and waits around to be attended to. A saving to my mind of time and energy. Is this a new scam to fleece people when the cost of living is on most minds. Has anyone else noticed this little earner as Arfur Daily would say.
I do not think the next 3 years will rollout in Australia as some sort of fight between Labor and the Greens
Certainly hope not. That would be a dreadful waste.
The niche party challenging Pauline Hanson in Queensland
The Legalise Cannabis Australia party is still within striking distance of snatching the sixth and final Queensland Senate vacancy from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
There is no truth to the rumour the Clive is offering a free cannabis plant for every UAP voter in 2025
alix hawke may have to resign most nsw liberals wanted him not selected on labor cabenit good about oniele but Don farrellis rong choice for deputy senit leader compleltly uselis giving the invizable senator a senyor position givin his strongviews against gay marige and fact he has failed to attack libs means his lucky to even be there he isl labors hawke
Dai Le may have an s44 issue
I wonder if Space Command will still be a thing?
Reminds me of “Pigs In Space” from the Kenny Everett Show (featuring Captain Kremmen of the StarCorps and Carla).
Steve777,
The likely wedge for the ALP is asylum seekers, the greens, and albo’s leftist tendencies.
Hopefully the ALP use the full weight of the secrets act to maintain on water matters to avoid the issue.
Sceptic – It is not just a matter of finishing 6th to win the seat, but get the preferences to flow. Since abolition of group ticket preference voting, it is nightmare to model the final outcome.
I was working on one after the last election, but the sheer number of permutations did my head in. My approach was probably wrong.
on pertential cabenit marles a good choice for defence charmers treasurer but labor would make a huge mistake if premote don farrell the uselis sa senator head of shoppies union has no publick profile has not landid any thing on libs desbite sports roughts basicly our mortin or hawke hawke may have to go as no nsw libs wanted him selected in first place on nationals will mckormack become leader again chester belongs in libs or independent
The loosest of unit @ #1075 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:55 pm
Freaking Lol! 😆
“Dai Le may have an s44 issue”
Lolol! But where is the evidence???
Is there any evidence for the Dai Le claim?
EDIT: Did I just agree with Freya?
This is interesting
Dai Le’s Wiki page says she arrived in Australia as a child from Vietnam
Yet, on her AEC Candidate Declaration she answered ‘NO’ to “Have you ever been a subject or citizen of any country other than Australia?”
No evidence of citizenship provided
C@tmomma,
God I hope we never get rid of or reform Section 44.
What a great part of the constitution. The only thing I’d change with it is instead of having new elections we just do a count back like they do in tassie.
what seat did nats pick up in senate if its nt jasinta price replaced mcman former nats so no extra seat do we think alix hawke will quit as his blamed for morrison losing nsw
Well, if there needs to be a byelection in Fowler, pretty easy – preselect Tu Le for Labor, she wins the seat, adds to Albo’s tally
Did someone say Capt. Kremmen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShCCSF9m-7M
Evan says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 9:02 pm
Well, if there needs to be a byelection in Fowler, pretty easy – preselect Tu Le for Labor, she wins the seat, adds to Albo’s tally
Not so sure, the new member was on 7.30, she is a pretty impressive women. Once an independent gets in they are hard to dislodge.
The absolute best thing the Liberals could do now is to decide that they’re going to run women in all the key seats they’ve lost, and start selecting and training ‘women of calibre’ with that in view.
They won’t, of course.
Observation on Twitter:
John Howard actively campaigned in seven Liberal party seats.
Of those seven, six were lost to the Liberal party.
Cronus @ #1074 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 8:57 pm
Pigs in Space originally from the Muppets.
Aaron – the CLP members have traditional choose to sit in either party room, but are never technically part of party, remaining members of the Country Liberal party. Very oddly, Nigel Scullion served as Nationals deputy leader without technically being part of the party.
Almost all remaining postals counted in Gilmore. Latest batch not as strong for Constance, who now leads by 143 with around 2200 absents to count. Looking a lot better for Labor now, assuming absents follow the 2019 pattern.
I am finally getting back to what ever resembles normal life around here.
Itza and Beguiled Again, thank you so much for your lovely posts from a few nights ago, which I have saved:
I agree with you. We are in the Gironde rather than in the Dordogne, so I used Saint Emilion as a name people on the blog would recognise. We are still trying the local AOC varieties (Pinehuillh is closest), and we live in the <> region. Some good local whites are to be had! But we are in <>, so only a bridge away from la rive droit.
Sadly, no. I had my mother with me for the 3 months we were there, and the only visit to Bordeaux we had was to go to Ikea (Mum wanted meatballs), and then to Bradley’s bookshop near Gare St Jean.
But we are back in early August for 6 weeks, and children will help me with looking after mum in Sydney for that time. So we will be back to Bordeaux, and enjoy le Parc Bordelaise.
Arcachon is on the end of out train line, and where we get out oysters from.
Thanks to you both for these lovely stories.
Given the success Howard has achieved over the course of this election, the Liberals could parachute him into a seat and return the leadership to him
Just not Bennelong – which is now a Labor seat
The ABC carry on about Fowler but what about all the seats previously represented by Liberal Party leaders and now not represented by Liberal MP’s?
B S Fairman re Gilmore progress count…
Those numbers look tight but promising for Labor. Constance probably needs a bigger lead from postals to win this.
Outsider- As I said before it will be a really “squeaker” of a final count. So close it will squeak.
Ah, the sweet sweet schadenfreude this headline in the SMH induces.
Australia votes
Liberals at lowest proportion of seats since party’s first poll in 1946
Aaron newton:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 8:52 pm
[‘the only real options are marise payne or bermingham bermingham is a bit robotick but on mesige and payne is perhaps best bet but being in the senate and stufing up solamon islands wont help…’]
I think you’re right about Payne. She wanted to increase our overseas aid to the Solomons but was rolled. Birmingham, too, is moderate but won’t speak up, that’s why he was the Tory’s campaign spokesman. In other words, he was set up. The reason Dutton will be elected is that Queensland is Tory HQ.