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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 2:39 pm
Cronus
“The basic equation is this.
Labor will never implement all of the Greens policies.
The Greens boast about ‘compromises’ and turn them into Greens ‘victories’.
They then bag Labor viciously for not implementing all of the Greens policies.
If you can spot the win for Labor in any of the above I would be interested to hear about it.”
I’m expecting Albo to rise above it all and just plow on with what is genuinely important leaving whomever to claim whatever victory they choose. Just as the Libs claimed economic victories for things over which they had no control, others will no doubt claim victories where it suits them them. Albo’s real victory will be his re-election to a third term I hope, having built a real consensus with most progressives through prudent collaboration. I don’t sense he is a zero-sum guy needing to claim every small victory in the manner of Morrison.
Beagle Boy @1.24pm.
Re: The future of Teal members.
Like some other Bludgers, you equate the uncertain fate of the Teal Independents with that of Rob Oakshott & Tony Windsor.
There is a huge, fundamental difference between these parliamentarians – Oakshott & Windsor had been prominent National Party members of the NSW Parliament – who crossed jurisdictions to the federal sphere and disturbed by the conservative direction of the National Party, left that party to sit as independent members. Their support of the Gillard Government was brought about by the extreme right wing direction that the Abbott Government under took.
As the Teal Independents have entered parliament as independents they will not be subject to much of the opprobrium which was directed towards Windsor & Oakshott.
The Teal Independents will be judged by their parliamentary deeds and how well, or poorly, they represent their respective constituents.
Can the LNP, typically seeing themselves as superior economists, business and individualists not see that what the LNP offers is not what is ‘selling’? Surely these aspiring ‘retail politicians’ will need to offer policy that sells, and not blame the consumer for not liking their product?
The LNP is not supplying what is demanded and yet they blame anyone who thinks their product is crap.
Sheesh!
I wish to thank the good people of the ACT for strategically managing out Zed. Very professionally done.
AEC Tally Room now has Labor on 76 seats. Accuracy? https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-27966.htm
On twitter
What happened to Josh Frydenberg in a tweet:
2020: “Victoria sucks.”
2021: “Melbourne is absolutely terrible!”
2022: “We still cool?”
Kooyong: “Yeah, nah.”
The AEC just shows which parties are currently ahead in the count, it is not a projection or assessment of who will win the seats.
Given it’s clear that Rupert has been rejected by voters for quite a few state/fed elections now it seems his power is diminished.
Would not surprise if his Australian news interests were sold off.
Itep, AEC noted thanks.
Victoria @ #655 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 3:21 pm
Got what he deserved.
He’s not a Victorian, he’s just a Liberal.
B.S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 2:45 pm
With the loss of Trent Zimmerman, Trevor Evans and Tim Wilson, all of the homosexual Liberal members of the house have lost their seats.
==
The homophobic nut jobs on SKY after dark made a point of this fact last night on Paul Murray Live and the emphasis of what they said critically was that they were ‘moderates’ t the innuendo was pretty easy to read between the lines. These fossil thinkers are so repulsive and out of touch they live in the 19th Century. Morons.
Did anyone on PB pick Bennelong to go to Labor ? That was a surprise to me.
ltep: “The AEC just shows which parties are currently ahead in the count, it is not a projection or assessment of who will win the seats.”
Generally, when they’re close, they put them into a separate category and they’re greyed out for who’s winning. But that looks like it only happens when the count gets close to complete, and because they’re now re-counting seats with different preference leands, they revert back to the other way. Or, at least, that’s the way it looks to me.
It’s actually an interesting thought experiment. How will the Liberal party recover or can it even recover.
Menzies gave up on the UAP probably for a similar reason as the Teals have given up the Liberal party. It was no longer representative of the people it purported to represent (and with Clive’s resurrection still isn’t).
So Menzies delivered “the forgotten people” speech targeted towards the middle class. At the end of the day Australia has only ever had the Labor party and a coalition of politically aligned “not the Labor party” politicians in power.
At this point in time there is no “Menzies” to gather the middle class into a new party, certainly no one within the current Liberal party that can fulfill the roll to move the Liberal/National coalition back to being a centre right (as opposed to religious right/RWNJ) party.
The Liberal party of Menzies ceased to exist something before 1996, a rump of something like the original party was around post ’75 but not in a form that Menzies would care to recognise. Howard will likely go to his grave in the next few years not realising that ultimately he destroyed the Liberal party, not Abbott or Morrison or Dutton or whomever else afterwards.
Haha!
Former Labor Senator John Black on @abc730 “The Liberals regarded the women in wealthy seats as Dr’s wives, when in fact they were the doctors” #ausvotes #auspol
@Boerwar
I suspect Max Chandler-Mather will be Brisbane’s Adam Bandt and increase his primary vote each election in the same way. You’re underestimating him. I’m a Labor voter and not in his seat but I’ve seen enough to know he has incredible cut through and chutzpah. That swing was no accident. Griffith is now a Greens seat.
PM Albanese is taking no shit from the travelling press pack in this presser. Showing total authority.
‘brucemainstream says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 3:26 pm
@Boerwar
I suspect Max Chandler-Mather will be Brisbane’s Adam Bandt and increase his primary vote each election in the same way. You’re underestimating him. I’m a Labor voter and not in his seat but I’ve seen enough to know he has incredible cut through and chutzpah. That swing was no accident. Griffith is now a Greens seat.’
=========================
Yeah. Was he the one who was going to fix airport noise? Or was that some other gonzo opportunist liar?
Just watched Albo’s presser at The Quad.
Faultless.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 3:17 pm
I wish to thank the good people of the ACT for strategically managing out Zed. Very professionally done.’
===========================
Ahem.
Gee whiz, Deakin is close.
Good comment GoldenSmaug, I agree, Howard killed the Liberal party by converting it from liberal to neoliberal. I think lots of us still remember the sinking feeling when Howard got in in ’96 and it’s taken 25 years for the awfulness of what the Liberal party became under Howard to fully run its course, with massive damage to the nation and Australian society incurred along the way.
(Of course, Keating also somewhat converted the Labor party to neoliberalism, which partly explains their difficulty in removing the Libs from power.)
@Leroy. Many thanks for the link. Enjoyable read.
Interesting small observation: Of all the seats held by Liberal leaders, only Wannon (Fraser), Bradfield (Nelson) and, of course, Cook (Morrison) will be represented by the Liberal Party in this term.
*(McMahon’s seat of Lowe no longer exists but its territory mostly exists in Reid nowadays, which will be represented by Labor)
For balance, of the seats held by Labor leaders over the same period of time as the Liberal Party has existed, all but Melbourne (Calwell) and Griffith (Rudd) will be represented by Labor (if you include the week that Forde was interim leader in 1945, you can add Capricornia to the exception list as well.)
Divisions shift their borders and change in size and, over time, can shift demographically, meaning their socio-economic and ideological composition can change with them of course, so take the above with the grain of salt that it deserves but it’s an interesting observation.
If Australia’s politics were reorganised into three parties as below, with compulsory preferential voting, what do you think would happen?
(1) A “Conservative Party” representing the interests of social conservatism and country affairs made out of the current Liberal and National parties
(2) A “Liberal Party” representing inner-city pro-business interests with fiscal responsibility but with progressive and liberal views on social issues and climate change, formed from Teal independents, friends of Turnbull and maybe a few moderate members of the ALP
(3) A “New Democratic Party” representing workers’ interests and the broader Left, formed from the most of the ALP (other than its moderate Shorten/Kitching wing), and perhaps some Greens
Labor was always going to leapfrog the Greens in Brisbane via postals. The question has always been would they get far enough ahead to withstand the Greens then coming back again on absents etc and then staying in front when the 3CP preference distribution is done.
Currently Labor is getting 29.3% of the postals and the Greens 18.5% and there are at least 14.3k of postals to process and maybe up to a couple of thousand more. With the current 13% rejection rate of postals that sees about 12.5k of valid postals currently to be counted. At the current rates that means Labor will go to about 1250-1300 ahead of the Greens on primaries. The consensus seems to be the Greens will pull that back a bit on the rest of the outstanding votes.
So when the prefs are distributed we should expect the Greens to still start a fair way behind. Labor should get some leakage from the right minors, and the AJP htv had Labor 2. With that you would suspect Labor should be able to stay in front, but Dr K says he has scrutineering info that says otherwise.
I would note however there won’t be much more than 5000 votes in total to distribute at the 3CP stage and probably half of those or more are going straight to the Libs, so it must be a pretty large AJP to Green prefs (noting that AJP probably weren’t handing out too many htvs) to get the Greens back in front.
Dan had Josh spot on…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSy1IKJi2LQ
Late Riser….
Your comment about the coin toss is, of course, correct.
I would hope elections will be more than a coin toss..
Joke from school days was…. ‘Heads: We go to the movies – Tails: We get a Big Mack – Lands on the edge – We do homework’
My point being – all other things being equal – it is tough to get a fourth term and for the LNP, this time, not within cooee…….
Freya, In the words of the Carpenters with reference to realignment “ we’ve only just begun”
It’s going to be great.
“Vic opposition leader Matt Guy said it was a disappointing outcome but that he expected discipline from members of his party.” Regarding Bernie Finn..
Thats tells you all you need to know about the Liberal party in victoria and most of the current liberal party’s around Australia at all levels of gov..
Its not that they actually disagree with what Bernie was saying…
No, not at all, but its that they wanted him to be more DISCIPLINED about it!!… in other words, whilst they are out and about in public or on social media they dont say this nasty, ignorant shit..
be more sensible and respectful in public and dont actually air your true views, like you have Bernie, or they will see us for the arsebackward religious throwbacks to the dark ages that we really are…
Not a lot of optimism in the Liberal Party room by all accounts.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-24/peter-dutton-only-candidate-liberal-leader-sussan-ley-deputy/101094524
pattern against user @ #679 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 3:40 pm
Weak from Matthew Guy.
Has he addressed the alcohol culture in the Vic Libs yet that’s been front page news re Tim Smith and David Davis …?
Can someone please explain the universe where Labor does not hold Macnamara?
J Burns is 2400 ahead of the libs and 1800 ahead of the Greens with 5700 postals, 4200 Absentees, 2700 declarations and 1,000 potential Provisionals to count
There are far less lefty or lefty adjacent candidates running. Apparently only AJP who have 1200 votes.
Josh Burns needs to drop to third not to win. I can’t see a scenario that is plausible where he doesnt’t finish top two.
Macca RB wrote, “There is a huge, fundamental difference between these parliamentarians – Oakshott & Windsor had been prominent National Party members of the NSW Parliament ”
Windsor was never a NP MP. He was a former member of the party though as I understand it.
Another Liberal bites the dust, citing family reasons. Guilia Jones has quit the ACT legislative assembly after ten years, all in opposition. She was/in the Seselja faction.
A year or two back she tried to sound virtuous by announcing she was cycling instead of driving. It later emerged that her driver’s licence had been suspended for three months.
Victoria
“Haha!
Former Labor Senator John Black on @abc730 “The Liberals regarded the women in wealthy seats as Dr’s wives, when in fact they were the doctors” #ausvotes #auspol”
Another aspect of this myopic view of people and work is the stereotype that the country is economically dependent on hard working tradies and not those who have “soft” professional jobs. This myth must die.
I am a civil engineer and have worked supervising construction in the past. Xanthippe works in a research unit attached to a public hospital. She often works longer hours than I do. That has long been the case. I would say that of all the people I know those working the longest hours are doctors and registrar nurses in large public hospitals or teachers and academics with a big class in a public school or university.
If professional life is so easy why is the suicide rate in young doctors and lawyers so terribly high?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/doctors-in-distress-why-demanding-lifestyle-puts-young-medicos-at-risk-20220512-p5akmj.html
David Packman’s view on Australian election.
https://youtu.be/hcNX55292Js
Fiona Phillips ahead by 78 votes in Gilmore…
Philips has hit the front again in Gilmore
Rex douglas
The hubris of josh frydenberg.
He honestly believed that playing politics with victorians during the pandemic would see the back of daniel andrews. Yet Josh is the one who has been unceremoniously turfed out.
Karma is a b@@ch.
Can someone please explain the universe where Labor does not hold Macnamara?
It’s one of those ‘mathematical possibilities’. (talking of euphemisms as we were yesterday…)
Freya…
You are dead wrong when it comes to the generics of political parties in Australia.
A much abbreviated rendition for you………………………………………
*First came the rich and privileged who wanted to keep the rest under the thumb….Whigs and Tories and nobody else…..(Free Traders and Protectionists)
*Next came a Labour Party which challenged the status quo
*Third came the Liberal Party and the Nationals (rebadged from above) whose only aim was to keep Labour out of office as if life depended upon it…………..for evah…………
*Concurrently, Labor has been joined by two other groups who aim now is to keep the Liberals and their rural socialist partner, the Nationals, out of office until they prove they are any good….
A change in Gilmore. A correction? Or new vote counting?
What’s the verdict guys? 75 or 76 for Labor? Hopefully it’s the latter, so we don’t have the press stirring up controversy with whoever Labor needs to align with to guarantee supply. I notice Richmond still hasn’t been called. Does my comedian friend Mandy Nolan stand a chance?
Snap – Sir les!
There’s a couple of seats likely to go to a full recount
clem attlee @ #684 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 3:44 pm
True that. I seem to recall that he was disendorsed for some reason, but won the seat in the NSW Parliament as an independent.
Ley?
Sacked for taking the taxpayers monies for trips to the Gold Coast to run her business interests.
Sacked for failing in Health.
One of the plethera of Coalition Environment minister failures.
Only saved from being beaten in a pre-selection for her seat by the Captain’s intervention.
And she is being considered as a possibly deputy leader of the Liberal Party?
Go straight to the bottom of the barrel!
Philips has hit the front again in Gilmore
AEC has fixed the problem with the Gerringong booth prefs.
So long as ALP stays ahead of the Green for 2nd in mcnamara LNP prefs will go mostly to ALP. Currently ALP nearly 2000 in front of the green
Tony Windsor
The Nationals have changed tack …their sole purpose under people like John Anderson was to keep the Liberals in Government and pick up some crumbs…with Joyce their sole purpose is to keep the Liberals out of Government and pick up zilch.A dipstick looking for sump.
The teal independents are absolutely going to team up with the liberals to bash the Labor party over the next 3 years. Don’t kid yourselves, on every issue other than ICAC and a neutered response to climate change, they are essentially the liberal party.