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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
You people will all go mad looking for tiny updates on the AEC site.
If Dutton is the only viable candidate to lead the opposition then I am not sure I understand the word ‘viable’.
Either that or – I reject the premise of the question.
“ratsaksays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 3:47 pm
Can someone please explain the universe where Labor does not hold Macnamara?
It’s one of those ‘mathematical possibilities’. (talking of euphemisms as we were yesterday…)”
But there must be a number of “mathematically” possible but highly improbably that have already been given
This needs the postals and and absentees to thread a needle of plausible numbers that are callibrated just right to push both the greens and libs ahead of labor after preferences.
Labor obviously beats both comfortably on 2CP
@Honest Bastard:
“ This was expected to happen (Labor gaining ground on postals and prepolls). The crucial thing for them is to build enough of a buffer to hold off the Greens candidate from slipping past once preferences start being distributed (which should favour the Greens, but the question is by how much).”
____
Scratching my head about your view that preferences will favour the Greens, once distributed.
Preferences will flow from Animal Justice, One Nation, United Australia and the Lib Dems.
Animal Justice recommended a vote for labor above the greens on their ‘how to votes’ (although there was no evidence of many AJ how to vote cards being actually handed out). Traditionally AJ splits close to 50/50 Labor vs Greens. So maybe the Greens will pick up a few on Labor from AJ (but maybe not).
All the other favour the LNP over Labor. I expect that 60% of preferences from ON, UA and LDs will go to the LDP and hence wont be relevant to the all important Labor vs Greens race to finish second. Of the remaining 40% I imagine (this is an assumption on my part, please prove me wrong if you think I’m incorrect) that nearly all of it would go to labor, given how hostile ON, UA and the LD are to the Greens.
Autocrat – after the madness of the past 6 weeks it is taking some time to wind back the brain’s activity. As the counting slows, suspect we will too.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-at-lowest-proportion-of-seats-since-party-formed-in-1946-20220524-p5ao00.html
Thanks for looking out for my mental health autocrat but Bonham had highlighted a potential error of 300 in the Gilmore count and if true may lead to the ALP getting to clear majority – So this minor update has been of some major interest.
Andrew_Earlwood at 3:55 pm
Although I live in the seat I have absolutely *no* inside (scrutineering) knowledge of how the preference distribution is shaping up. I’m only relying on what Kevin Bonham has been saying. I probably should have made that more clear.
So this is what Kevin said on Monday :
> I have seen some scrutineering data that points to the Greens potentially making up 1.3% on micro preferences should they fall behind. That may just be a little bit optimistic but I could easily see them recovering at least one point, so the question is can Labor get substantially more than 1% ahead.
and today :
> I am given to understand based on scrutineering that the Greens are shaping up well in this seat and likely to win it.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-house-of-reps-postcount-brisbane.html
From the Guardian live blog …
This is why the Teals and Greens did so well at the election … and will continue to do so.
Briefly
“They might make Brisbane their own and deliver the rest of the State to the Lying Reactionaries. This would be a complete triumph for the Apostasy.
It’s possible that within a few elections both the Lying Reactionaries and the Apostasy will be confined only to Queensland, while the True Believers and The Heresy between them hold possession of the Rest of Australia.”
————-
Apostasy and Heresy: a new blood drenched fantasy series from the fervid imagination of A C Briefly.
@Andrew_Earlwod
Exactly my thinking. It is quite plausible that the Libs get above Labor on postals and preference flows. It is impossible to see how the Greens do given AJP is the only significant vote winner that might preference them.
It seems to me that a feature of this election is that it narrows the field within which the majors might compete in future elections.
I anticipate as per pasokification and increasing tribalization will be that this field will be further reduced over time.
The prospect is for more and more minority governments which face different opponents in the House and in the Senate.
Getting a consensus around the large tax increases to implement the progressive agenda looks increasingly unlikely.
77% of voters in the last election voted for parties which promised not to increase taxation.
Perhaps the small government IPA peeps have won after all?
Darn, Constance jumped again
As far as I can see, with Lyons and McNamara Labor get to 76, Brisbane is an outside chance for 77, and Gilmore a remote possibility for 78. Worst case scenario is 75 if the Greens somehow win in McNamara and Brisbane.
Constance back in the lead with 105. Gilmore is going to be very, very close. 1500 postal, 1900 absentee, 716 provisionals, 3221 pre-poll declaration too go.
At least 82% of voters in the last election gave their primary vote to a party with climate targets either equal to or less than those of Labor.
Darn, Constance jumped again
About 1300 postals added to the count. About 1500 left. Will probably have Constance around 300 in front.
Gut feel is that won’t be enough when the absents etc are added, but it’s going to be tight whichever way it goes.
This is why the Nationals continue to win all their seats.
Dutton is having a smile transplant as we speak.
labor must get rid of home afairs head mike pezzullo a dutton friend funny how the boats magicly started when labor won hadley prempted this in his grilling of albanese in his question albo when the boats restart inif you get elected will you turn them back hope home afairs is not incouriging people smugglers to send boats as a political stunthe also made the terible drums of war speech former beazley staffer but now dutons suporter also cathrin campell needs to go in foriegn afairs
Max Chandler-Mather was a one issue candidate, aircraft noise. Both the Labor and Liberal candidates understood nothing could be done about the noise, Greens stated they could and they won. His chances of decreasing this noise are zero. Lets see what happens next election.
….aaaah, actually you appear to be talking about Brisbane.
Yeah that is certainly a bit more likely for the Greens
Greens are not going to win in Macnamara. With the current flow of postal votes and there is enough minor party votes that will put the Liberals into 2nd place over the Greens and Josh Burns will be returned.
The postal votes opened today have been less in favor of than when the Greens had expressed confidence. Labor is currently 34 votes in front but there is a lot of votes still to counted. So it is going to be a nail biter. You never know what is inside those envelopes until they are opened.
My new ALP rep Sally Sitou very eloquent on Afternoon Briefing just now
Jan says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 3:54 pm
“If Dutton is the only viable candidate to lead the opposition then I am not sure I understand the word ‘viable’.
Either that or – I reject the premise of the question.”
In this context, viable means male, conservative, thug. Those are the only three suitable characteristics. Token female then required as deputy.
I notice that the ABC election page currently has labor tracking for a 3rd senator in both WA and SA. If this is reflected in the final count (doubtful I know) then that would leave Labor with 16 senate seats from this election and 11 continuing senators from 2019 for a total of 27 senators. …
“Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:19 pm
I notice that the ABC election page currently has labor tracking for a 3rd senator in both WA and SA. If this is reflected in the final count (doubtful I know) then that would leave Labor with 16 senate seats from this election and 11 continuing senators from 2019 for a total of 27 senators. …”
Which would give them an awkward majority with the Greens alone!
“From monk to multilingual dolphin whisperer: who is Sam Lim, Labor’s new Western Australian MP?”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/from-monk-to-multilingual-dolphin-whisperer-who-is-sam-lim-labors-new-member-for-tangney
I wonder if he’s the first dolphin trainer member of parliament.
@Steelydan “Max Chandler-Mather was a one issue candidate, aircraft noise.”
Right, then I’m sure if we drill down to the booths we’ll only see swings to the Greens in areas where aircraft noise was an issue. Oh wait.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Mr Dutton has never held an economic portfolio – surely that goes against him being Opposition leader?
“ Which would give them an awkward majority with the Greens alone!”
Quite. A poison chalice even. Much better if the Greens have to bring a teal or two, Lambie or even a UA senator along to the party whenever it wants to stunt with its ‘hold labor to account’ terrorism.
What makes anyone think the Teals will act in any sort of coherent way?
They are not a party, they are independents with similar but not identical agendas….
The likes of Katter and the new member from Fowler are different again, and different again from returned Independents who were largely ignored by the LNP….
The Greens, at least, are coherent and I suspect they too have learned some lessons from the Rudd-Gillard times. For instance, remembering that a bit of something is better than nil of nothing. Even Bandt, this morning on local radio, said wtte, that he and the Greens did not expect to get everything they wanted.
Even if every Teal and Independent suddenly fell in love with the LNP it will be no use to the LNP as they will still not have the numbers in the House of Reps. In any event I suspect many of the Teals despise the Liberals more than they might Labor……..
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:11 pm
“Dutton is having a smile transplant as we speak.”
The problem with a transplant is that everyone can see it’s a transplant. Now it’s a heart transplant that is really required.
Blanket
“The teal independents are absolutely going to team up with the liberals to bash the Labor party over the next 3 years.”
Maybe, maybe not. Why fret about that at the moment?
If they do – then you deal with that and talk to those who aren’t bagging you relentlessly and vacantly
If they don’t – then nothing changed from present day.
The days of antagonism and you vs me needs to change. There are a lot of political people who thrive off that anti- energy, and not just the right. How are we going to get innovation when this is where people want to be at?
We have 5 main groupings in Parliament now, plus individual ones in the Teals and indies. There is a lot to choose from.
Notice that the female Teals come from corporate positions where collaboration and creativity is centre to how they did their job. Expect the same. Their whole reasons for working in a corporation wasn’t to “smash those who earn less them then” like a Liberal™ would.
I love that we are the closest to Germany at the moment than we ever have been in their system – SDP/Grünen/FDP. Replace SDP with ALP and FDP (a smattering of people here and there). They have to work together, which means cooperation. I expect Albo will do this way more than Morrison.
Tricot
Sounds like you’re on the money. Hopefully, we’ll see a large amount of bills coming through once Parliament sits. I would imagine that the days won’t be cut to, like, 4.9 a year.
Pi
He’s just changing zoos. Should be a breeze only his previous zoo had a far higher IQ.
I’m wondering if there are some other incorrectly-entered values in certain booths.
In Dickson, in the booth of Eatons Hill, among 1218 formal votes, Labor got 336 and Greens got 115. PHON got 97. Under typical flow of 80% from Greens and 30% from PHON (ignoring all of the other non-LNP votes), that would lead to 457 votes… but Labor got 412 on 2PP. Across all preference flow, that’s only 25.3%, where almost every other booth was over 50% flow to ALP. A quick scatterplot with trendline suggests that, with about 38.3% of the non-major vote going to the Greens, you would expect about 50-55% (trendline suggests 53.4%) of preferences to flow to Labor.
But even if all of the preference flow to Labor came from Greens voters, it would still be only 66.1% of Greens votes flowing to Labor. Based on the trendline (which includes this point and two other, not quite as extreme, outliers), Labor should get about 94% of Greens preferences. Which itself demonstrates that something is wrong. Removing all outliers gives a Greens-only preference flow of 85.8%, which is more feasible (and raises the prediction for Eatons hill to over 55% flow to Labor)
It wouldn’t totally change the result, but if all three outliers were adjusted to match the trendline, it would mean Labor would be higher by about 128 votes (and LNP down by the same). Maybe the outliers are actually reasonable, for all I know.
Looking at 2019, at Eatons Hill, about 57.4% of preferences flowed to ALP. My trendline suggests it should have been 56.9% at this election, rather than 25.3%. That the correction for Eatons hill is about 100 votes makes me think it might have been a typo.
I was a bit too consumed by the campaign north of the river to follow events in Griffith that closely. Did Max Chandler-Mather really promise to stop aircraft noise? What exactly was he intending to do about it?
(A little surprised aircraft noise was even much of an issue in Griffith, really. I have thought Lilley and the eastern fringes of Brisbane (around Clayfield and Ascot) would have been more affected by that.)
With the passing of Morrison Australia has finally left the 1950s behind
It’s down to the flight paths. Lilley is barely affected at all afaik. Certainly wasn’t an issue in the electorate. Brisbane is affected around Hamilton and Hendra (and maybe Ascot) areas I believe, not so much Clayfield.
Asha says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:31 pm
(“A little surprised aircraft noise was even much of an issue in Griffith, really. I have thought Lilley and the eastern fringes of Brisbane (around Clayfield and Ascot) would have been more affected by that.”
Oddly enough, there is even a not-insignificant anti-aircraft noise grouping in Dickson. It doesn’t really bother me.
On Macnamara, here’s what I think the narrow path to a Greens victory is.
Keep in mind I also agree it’s at least an 80-90% probability that Labor win, but there is a path that isn’t too unrealistic, and that is:
– If Labor’s lead above *both* the other parties, on primary votes, remains under 1.5%
– If then, the majority of minor party votes split between Libs & Greens, to wipe out that 1.5% lead over both
Firstly, let’s start with the preferences. I think it’s actually very likely Labor will come a distant last in how much of the minor party vote they pick up compared to Libs & Greens for a couple of reasons:
– AJP may have put ALP higher; but I live in Macnamara and didn’t see a single volunteer handing out the cards. Also voters of parties like that don’t follow the cards, and in previous elections it has actually been AJP preferences that leapfrogged the Greens above Labor (ie. Prahran in both 2014 & 18). I think the HTV cards will have no impact at all.
– The 3 alt-right / freedom parties will massively favour the Liberals obviously, by 60-65% at least, because they are right wing. But, even though the Greens are the most ideologically opposed, I think they will get most of the remainder because a) Many who don’t vote Libs will just put the two majors last as a protest; b) They are all “freedom” parties, their vote is a protest against lockdowns, mandates etc and in Victoria they 100% associate that with Labor. I think Labor will be dead last on at least 90% of the “freedom” voters’ ballots.
There’s also over 9% of minor party preferences to distribute, so as I say, if Labor’s lead on primaries (over both parties) can be held to below 1.5%, there is a realistic – not probable, but certainly possible – chance that it’s wiped out on preferences.
Second point, which is whether Labor’s primary lead can be cut to around 1.5%?
There are only around 5700 postal votes left to count, so excluding the approximately 9% which is so far the rate that weren’t formal votes, that’s around 5100 more. So far, each subsequent batch has been less favourable to Labor and more favourable to the Greens; Libs have remained pretty steady but reduced a bit on the last batch.
Remembering that postal votes received later are most likely Covid positive voters who planned to vote on the day, they will probably reflect the election day results more. So while the Greens are currently averaging just over 17% on postals compared to 32% for Labor, the last batch when taken in isolation was considerably better for the Greens and worse for Labor; there’s no reason to think the last 3 batches – and especially any envelopes not received yet, almost certain to be Covid ones – won’t also be better. So when calculating postals, I wouldn’t be using 17% Greens and 32% Labor, I would be working off the assumption that later postals will tighten, and therefore Labor will still increase their lead a bit, but not by that much.
Then that leaves – Absent, Provisional, Dec Pro-Poll and Telephone phones. So far there’s at least 9000 of them known, and historically the Greens have dominated Absent & Provisional compared to Labor, while pre-poll will probably break pretty evenly.
So putting it that way, there’s about 5100 votes left likely to mostly favour the Libs and tighten their margin with Labor; then possibly another 1000 or so Covid postals to be received which could go anyway but possibly even break for the Greens if it’s like election day; then another 9000 votes most likely to favour the Greens.
So as I say, Josh Burns is definitely the favourite here and I’d rather be in his position than anybody else’s because a) He has the lead; b) Current modelling clearly favours him, even if it may not be factoring in the gradual shift in postals enough; and c) He’s certain to win two of the three possible 2CP scenarios.
However, based on the numbers left, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that late Covid postals, absentees, Dec pre polls, provisional votes and telephone votes won’t put all 3 parties within 1.5% of each other; and if that does occur, it’s certainly a possibility that Labor do very poorly on the minor party preferences.
That’s my take. Again… Not saying Josh won’t win, or that the Greens have a strong chance, Josh is absolutely in the driver’s seat here and I’d put money on him to hold it. But I certainly wouldn’t be calling it for Labor until I start seeing how Absents & Covid postals break.
Sceptic @ #739 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 4:33 pm
Sadly, not while John Howard still draws breath.
Remember how we were being told that Corangamite was going to fall last week? 6.79% swing to the sitting member.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:06 pm
It seems to me that a feature of this election is that it narrows the field within which the majors might compete in future elections.
I anticipate as per pasokification and increasing tribalization will be that this field will be further reduced over time.
The prospect is for more and more minority governments which face different opponents in the House and in the Senate.
Getting a consensus around the large tax increases to implement the progressive agenda looks increasingly unlikely.
77% of voters in the last election voted for parties which promised not to increase taxation.
Perhaps the small government IPA peeps have won after all?
_______________
For once I think your mostly correct in your analysis – with the exception of the last sentence.
2PP compulsory preferential is kaput – only a matter of time before 1 of the 2 majors decides its no longer in its interests.
Not guaranteed that we live in an IPA world – more likely multi-party coalitions where a governing agreement is hammered out German style after the elections.
Bruce:
Ah, I see, cheers. Been a while since I was last on a plane!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #730 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 4:24 pm
‘terrorism’ ?
The only ‘terrorists’ Albo should be afraid of are those on Sussex St who have all the credentials to stuff up this opportunity of a progressive Govt.
Cronus @ #741 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 4:35 pm
Nobody is more entitled than the gentrified tree-tories in Bulimba.
What’s even weirder is how aircraft movements have *never* been lower than in the past few years thanks to covid. I wonder if people are suddenly noticing aircraft more because they had a year with basically none.
Does anyone know what the blue and yellow rosette/flower is on Albo’s lapel?
Blue and yellow are Ukraine’s colors, aren’t they?