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There were two developments in counting yesterday, one of which was that batches of postal votes were counted in every seat. Taken in aggregate they recorded a bigger swing to Labor than booth and pre-poll votes, consistent with the notion that the 70% increase in applications would make the postal voter population more representative and less conservative than in past years. However, this doesn’t mean Labor can expect a surge in its favour in late counting, since the swing is not so big as to completely eradicate postal voting’s conservative lean and they are in greater in overall number now.
The other development was that fresh two-candidate preferred counts were commenced in three interesting (Griffith, Ryan and Cowper) and seven uninteresting (Bradfield, Calare, Sydney, Hinkler, Maranoa, Melbourne and Grey) races. None of these counts is very far advanced, and for several it was just a case of throwing to new pairs of candidates during today’s counting of postal votes. However, we can presumably expect them to go back through the ordinary votes and publish fresh two-candidate preferred results in fairly short order.
There are another four seats where it is clear the wrong two candidates were picked for the candidate on the night, but in which new counts have not been commenced since it is not clear which candidate will drop out before the final count, of which I rate one to be very much in doubt (Brisbane) and three not so (Richmond, Macnamara and Wannon). We won’t know exactly what’s happened in these races until all the votes are in and the full distributions of preferences are conducted.
My system is definitively calling 72 seats for Labor, 47 for the Coalition, three for independents, two for the Greens and one for Bob Katter, but there are a number involving independents that it is being too slow to give away, which I should probably do something about. These include Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong, where the Liberals can hope for no more from postals than to reduce the teal independents’ winning margins, and Fowler, where Kristina Keneally seemingly can’t even hope for that much. Conversely, the presence of independents in the race is making the system too slow to call Bradfield, Nicholls and Wannon for the Coalition.
The only one of the six main teal independent targets I would still rate in doubt is Curtin, and even there Liberal member Celia Hammond will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Postals are favouring her, as they are with the Liberals in all such contests, but they are on track to bite only around 2000 out of Chaney’s existing 3350 vote margin. That would leave her needing some dynamic on absent and out-of-division pre-polls to favour her, the nature of which wouldn’t seem clear at this stage.
Then there’s Cowper, where my system is crediting Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan with a slight advantage over independent Caz Heise. We’re in the very early stages of a two-candidate count between the two in which the only substantial result is the postals, on which preferences are flowing to Heise 67.3-32.7. Applying that split over the projected primary votes, which have Conaghan on 39.6% and Heise on 26.7%, Conaghan would hold on by a margin of 0.6%, which is closer than the 2.0% being produced by the crude estimate of preference slows in my system.
The system is also being slow to call Ryan for the Greens, but I expect that to resolve when the fresh two-candidate count there reaches a sufficient stage that I stop relying on my preference estimates, which cause me to impose a bigger margin of error. There has been some talk of the Greens making it as high as five, but this includes Macnamara which I now can’t see happening. Labor had a very strong result on the first batch of postals, which swung 9.0% in their favour on the primary vote, making it very unlikely they will drop out ahead of both the Greens and the Liberals, which is what it would take for them to lose. The remaining issue is whether Brisbane gets them to four, on which more below.
I don’t imagine my system is too far off calling Lingiari for Labor and Casey, Dickson and Bass for the Coalition, though I’d keep at least half an eye on the latter. Throwing those on the pile, we get Labor to 74, the Coalition to 54, independents to ten and the Greens to three, with Bob Katter still on one, Cowper to either stay Coalition or go independent, and a further eight outstanding from which Labor might get the two extra they need to make it to 76. As I see it, these are, in roughly descending order of likelihood:
Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.
Lyons. Labor’s Brian Mitchell had a very encouraging first batch of postal votes here, breaking 2056-1833 his way. Mitchell leads by 0.6% on the raw count, but I’m projecting this to come out at just 0.1% based on an assumption that the outstanding postals will lean conservative, as they did last time. If further batches of postals put paid to that idea, he can start to breathe easier.
Brisbane. As I noted in yesterday’s post, what we need here not a two but a three-candidate preferred count to establish who will out first out of the Greens and Labor, as the seat will go to whichever survives at this point. While I am projecting the Greens to hold a slight lead on the primary vote, and they should get a fillip in the preference count when Animal Justice are distributed, the postals give Labor more than a shred of hope. Postals are always weak for the Greens, but the first batch has only recorded a 1.3% primary vote swing for them compared with 5.6% overall. If that’s maintained over the rest of the postals, it’s likely to be very close. So unless the AEC does something innovative here, this will have to wait until all the votes are in and the full distribution of preferences is completed.
Gilmore. A similar story to Bennelong insofar as a weaker than anticipated showing for the Liberals on the first batch of postals suggests the final result will come in roughly where it is at the moment. That means lineball in this case, with Liberal member Andrew Constance leading by 306 votes.
Deakin. Here on the other hand postals were favourable to the Liberals, swinging 3.7% to Labor compared with 5.0% overall. While my projection still has Labor 0.5% ahead, if the postal count so far continues over what should be at least 12,000 more yet to come, Michael Sukkar will retain the seat.
Menzies. The postals swung similarly to the overall result here, which is good news for the Liberals because the increased number of them means their natural lean to the Liberals should cause the gap to widen as more can come in, by a greater amount than Labor can hope to reel in on other types of vote.
Sturt. The swing on postals here was in line with the overall result, so I’m satisfied with my projection of a 0.5% Liberal lead, which happens to be very close to the raw count. However, there are enough votes still out there that it can’t be given away yet.
Moore. Labor recorded a below par swing on the first batch of postals, suggesting Liberal member Ian Goodenough’s 1138-vote lead is more likely to widen than shrink, and that Labor will have to make do with four gains in Western Australia rather than five.
Last time I looked there were not commercial flights from Canberra. Plus it is not like it was just Albo going to Tokyo, there were all sorts of public servants going as well, security details etc.
It is really only the cost of the fuel too; the plane is still going to be owned by the RAAF and the RAAF personnel were still going to be employed.
Lars always asking the serious questions!!
@max says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 10:04 pm
__________
It was a but funny, the first lot of results has the swing to ALP, which was pretty heartening then the strangeness with the PVs and the Ind votes. Have to say i was on edge of the seat and glued to the PB updates.
In 2019 it was apparent from about 7pm it was all down the toilet as the swings were uniform but this was so different bit annoyed I didnt record the coverage as would like to watch again.
The greens are not going to smear themselves in glory if they take the position of being a white urban men saying “We’ll decide how recognition will happen and in what order”.
That may be a foot gun they will want to avoid.
Nicko @ #1401 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:10 pm
I would have said absolutely ridiculous myself. And again, never a question asked of Scott Morrison or any Liberal PM.
Not to mention that prime Ministers need a secure environment to conduct their business, take calls from other world leaders and to make sure they’re safe. Not least from idiots that may want to assassinate them for whatever reason in their stupid heads.
Seriously there’s a daily flight to Tokyo – first class ticket is about 1% of the cost or less of flying a govt jet for 2 people. Also massive expenditure of carbon for 2 people.
Do as I say not as I do it seems.
1. What to do when a Labor MP is accused of “misbehaviour” with a younger , more junior female staffer/adviser? Nothing came out during the election campaign in spite of the no doubt best efforts of the LNP-Murdoch Dirt Units, so it’s not a concern at the moment. Act with integrity should credible allegations surface in future.
2. Greens – Friends or foe? That’s up to the Greens
3. Party Political appointments – lots of Labor hacks looking for gigs – what’s the go? Is it same / same but different or not? Do some clean-out of the Coalition’s Augean stables – a total clean-out would be impossible or at least highly disruptive. Legislate as required to prevent future abuses. Appoint the best person to vacancies as they arrive.
4. FICAC – what happens when a Labor Minister is referred by the Opposition to FICAC – will they be standing down pending an inquiry? If the allegations are credible and FICAC decides that there is a case to answer. Just making allegations won’t cut it.
5. Can you say “no” to a Labor state Premier / union/ welfare lobby group? Yes, unlike the Coalition to their mates.
south @ #1403 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:14 pm
It’s mainly the cantankerous Senator Lidia Thorpe from The Greens, who seems to want to make it all about herself.
Nicko says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 10:10 pm
Why couldn’t albo have flown commercial to Tokyo? Getting rid of the personal jet would have shown he was serious about cost of living?
First thing he does is go all exclusive !
Lars always asking the serious questions!!
___________________________
Lets see how exclusive, will he demand the red carpet and military guard of honour on return??
Has he called the plane Rabbitoh One??
Desert Qlder @ #1400 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:10 pm
TPP 60 ALP 40 Lib/Nats
Preferred PM Albo 70 Dutton 30
Having lived in Aston or Deakin most of my life, you would really notice how car centric the area is. Only a handful of people would know where the bus routes are. The roads are wide. Service lanes along the major roads. The blocks are big and get bigger the further East you go. There’s a giant green belt running around the Dandenong creek that’s ripe for in filling and factories that will further fade away to be replaced with more retail or brownfields housing…
Desert Qlder at 10.10
I’d love 58/42 polling.
I’d love it even more if the ALP ignored polling and a) governed well; and b) watched Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (ironic title, huh?) – and our biased media – like a hawk.
No underestimation of the difficulty of not only governing, but getting re-elected!
The 2025 re-election strategy needs to be about 1) keeping ALP seats; 2) nibbling at Coalition seats now held on thin margins; and 3) enabling additional Teals to further gut the Liberal party – along with Rural Indies actually winning the odd Nat seat.
Lars Von Trier @ #1406 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:16 pm
Are you testing the boundaries of stupid tonight?
After watching ABC all night do they actually like the LNP or are they suffering from Stockholm syndrome.
“True re Sydney Ferries, but if Deakin and Menzies remain Liberal, they can boast they still represent the odd tram stop!”
Are you sure? The 48 and 109 both seem to stop in Chisholm.
Coormann, B Bishop
And if you ever wondered why the Liberal Party will cease to exist over the next 5 years, your answer is LVT
“The greens are not going to smear themselves in glory if they take the position of being a white urban men saying “We’ll decide how recognition will happen and in what order”
“It’s mainly the cantankerous Senator Lidia Thorpe from The Greens, who seems to want to make it all about herself.”
So are the Greens too white or not white enough? It’s so hard to keep up.
Albo’s number one focus is climate change. Set the standard and get rid of the private jet and travel like the rest of us to reduce emissions.
The Vermont South tram extends into Liberal territory.
I am sure the people who are sitting on their roofs because their house is under water are probably not thinking about that too much, although when they hear Barnaby supposedly standing up for country folk by denying climate change… im sure they are really impressed by that
Martin B at 10.22
Tram route 75 terminates in Vermont South, which might place it in Deakin (I think – I only lived in Melbourne for 2 years decades ago, and I was in West Hawthorn!)
Lars, you are a flamin’ Drongo.
There are some trams stops in Menzies. The 109 runs down Whitehorse road and that is the boundary. So if you get off the tram heading out of the city get off at the second last or the last stop, the northside of the road is Menzies.
Lars @10:02.
” Why couldn’t albo have flown commercial to Tokyo? Getting rid of the personal jet would have shown he was serious about cost of living?
First thing he does is go all exclusive !”
Really, is this the sort of crap we’re going to have to put up with for the next three years?
EDIT: also, what Rod Harradine said.
Most amusing tonight 🙂
Rod Harradine at 10.29 re Lars being a drongo…
I disagree. I think Lars is trying to get a rise out of some of us by subtly aiming what appears to be humour at Albo. In fact, Lars is communicating a view that Albo isn’t worthy of being regarded as this nation’s Head of Govt. So, Lars simply exhibiting the born-to-rule attitude common on the Right.
Lars: look at the scoreboard.
Steve777 @ #1423 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:30 pm
You can count on it. Every day Lars von Liberal will come up with some sort of sleazy assertion about Albanese that he will dare us to refute. Otherwise it must be true, eh? Totally fanciful stuff but it will all be a part of the constant attempt to besmirch the Labor government and Albanese in particular.
michael @ #1417 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:25 pm
Is this really going to be the line Liberals like this guy and Lars take!?! Ridiculous.
michaelsays:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 10:25 pm
Albo’s number one focus is climate change. Set the standard and get rid of the private jet and travel like the rest of us to reduce emissions.
—
OK you leave your car at home and walk to work tomorrow after not cleaning your teeth, making a cup of coffee or turning a light on. Moron.
Lars
If Australia wants to be taken seriously then the PM has a plane.
People are blowing hard about the PM’s jet. Get a fucking grip! The point of that plane is so he can stuff it with with advisors and staff and work for the 13 hours.
He ain’t watching movies on it.
“I have made the effort to read the Greens’ webpage about how they didn’t actually screw Rudd over. They just wanted a perfect carbon reduction policy and Rudd wasn’t offering it.”
Groundhog day but:
* Rudd went out of his way to point out to all of Australia that he wasn’t talking to the Greens. It wasn’t Greens who ruled out negotiations, it was the ALP.
* Milne was exceptionally transparent about what were deal-breakers and what the Greens could negotiate on. There’s a National Press Club speech in which she laid it out. Look it up.
* Rudd would not move on any issue but when Windsor and Oakeshott politely enquired in 2011 it turned out that all of these things were ones that Labor could negotiate. Who knew?
* After having been prepared to negotiate and being rebuffed at every opportunity, the Greens were given a ‘no negotiation, our way or the highway’ offer from the ALP and said no thanks.
A re-think on transport arrangements for politicians and public servants from the PM down strikes me as a sensible way to communicate the seriousness of the climate emergency to those ordinary punters who switched off years ago when it all became so bogged down in Tony Abbott-fuelled political squabbling.
However, in this instance, having only just secured an election victory hours earlier, it was never going to be practical to bring about such a change at this short notice. There are also security considerations, no doubt.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 10:16 pm
Seriously, it’s not 2 people, there would be numerous advisers both public servants & political.
Private & confidential conversations etc..
Was that you standing behind Potato head applying the wedge to South Sydney 1 in Rowes cartoon
“Set the standard and get rid of the private jet and travel like the rest of us to reduce emissions.”
Too right Lars.
I insist that Albo (coz its just him innit) fly first class commercial
No! He’s a not a snob, he should fly economy
No! He’s a leader that follows, as all should do. He should sit in the cargo hull, and show he is a servant to the people.
No! That’s taking up space for imports/exports, hold onto the wing the whole way
No! Walk to Tokyo. No emissions then
The gold standard was, of course, Greta Thunberg sailing to Britain to attend the Glasgow COP.
Also, imagine the powerful message Albanese would be sending the world on Australia’s drastically altered approach to addressing climate change. Huge international media interest, no doubt, even though some would deride it as a stunt.
happyez at 10.43
If I walked to Tokyo, there would be several emissions!
alias at 10.45
Headlines…
‘Albo Misses Quad Due to Leaky Boat’
etc
etc
The whole plane thing was set up by Morrison. Labor will have plenty of opportunities to sort out emissions issues but hard on day 1.
And the Libs will be running tag teams – one lot querying why Labor aren’t going harder on emissions and the other team complaining they are doing too much. Usual bullsh’t that seems to amuse people like LVT.
Seriously guys. To Tokyo would also be a team of public servants/advisors & such — for each leader they’re meeting separately as well as the QUAD as a whole, plus a trusted translator or two (Japanese & Indian). Secure laptops & other portable devices. They’d likely be having planning sessions on the plane on the way over since they were robbed of a great deal of prep time by proximity to election.
None of which could happen on a commercial jet.
Common sense.
Lars, he is the Prime Minister.
Did you ever think to ask this question in regard to your beloved Liberal Prime Ministers in the last nine years and in the past?
Or is it just Albanese that catches your interest regarding the matter of air travel in performance of official duties?
You are a snide little character, aren’t you?
Lars has successfully derailed discussion. His question was idiotic, standard Liberal-Murdoch stuff. It’s what they do.
” The 109 runs down Whitehorse road and that is the boundary. So if you get off the tram heading out of the city get off at the second last or the last stop, the northside of the road is Menzies.”
Ah yes, I see. Bit like the Murray, then, is the boundary in the middle of the road or on either side 😉
Any of you people tried to book a commercial flight to Tokyo lately???
Come on guys, you are dancing to Lars tune and he’s having a good old laugh at your collective expense.
Stop giving the troll cheap laughs and smarten up a bit.
We’re a big enough and wealthy enough country to have a modest plane designed for government travel. Saves valuable time as well seeing as there are few commercial international flights in and out of Canberra.
Albo just touched down in Tokyo. Could not see much as fumes everywhere.
ABC…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az&state=all
Has ‘given’ 73 seats to Labor. Among those ‘in doubt’ are 4 I think will wind up Labor: Brisbane, Lyons Macnamara & Richmond.
This would bring Labor to 77. I’d hoped for 80, but a cross bench of 15 leaves 59 for the Coalition.
59 seats: the worst Coalition performance since the HoR was significantly enlarged (to 148, it is now 151) in 1984.
ONCE MORE, WITH FEELING – 59 SEATS: THE WORST COALITION PERFORMANCE SINCE THE HoR WAS SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGED IN 1984!!!
I think it’s an interesting topic to bounce around in the afterglow of a superb election result.
Of course there are many practicalities to be addressed. I’m more interested in the message such a change would convey. The seriousness of the climate emergency is still not understood by vast numbers of people. Many vaguely recognise something is going on; their concern amps up for a week or three with the latest catastrophic disaster in Australia or elsewhere in the world.
But if you want a quantum leap in changing perceptions, a drastic change in how the Australian PM travels could aid very well in achieving that end. As I said, it would also signal loudly and in media-friendly way the fact that Australia is no longer a terrible laggard in the fight against climate change. Of course, such a gesture would need to be backed by meaningful broader action, as is being proposed by Labor.
Kevin Bonham has Labor just ahead in Gilmore because of some recording errors