Click here for full federal election results updated live.
There were two developments in counting yesterday, one of which was that batches of postal votes were counted in every seat. Taken in aggregate they recorded a bigger swing to Labor than booth and pre-poll votes, consistent with the notion that the 70% increase in applications would make the postal voter population more representative and less conservative than in past years. However, this doesn’t mean Labor can expect a surge in its favour in late counting, since the swing is not so big as to completely eradicate postal voting’s conservative lean and they are in greater in overall number now.
The other development was that fresh two-candidate preferred counts were commenced in three interesting (Griffith, Ryan and Cowper) and seven uninteresting (Bradfield, Calare, Sydney, Hinkler, Maranoa, Melbourne and Grey) races. None of these counts is very far advanced, and for several it was just a case of throwing to new pairs of candidates during today’s counting of postal votes. However, we can presumably expect them to go back through the ordinary votes and publish fresh two-candidate preferred results in fairly short order.
There are another four seats where it is clear the wrong two candidates were picked for the candidate on the night, but in which new counts have not been commenced since it is not clear which candidate will drop out before the final count, of which I rate one to be very much in doubt (Brisbane) and three not so (Richmond, Macnamara and Wannon). We won’t know exactly what’s happened in these races until all the votes are in and the full distributions of preferences are conducted.
My system is definitively calling 72 seats for Labor, 47 for the Coalition, three for independents, two for the Greens and one for Bob Katter, but there are a number involving independents that it is being too slow to give away, which I should probably do something about. These include Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong, where the Liberals can hope for no more from postals than to reduce the teal independents’ winning margins, and Fowler, where Kristina Keneally seemingly can’t even hope for that much. Conversely, the presence of independents in the race is making the system too slow to call Bradfield, Nicholls and Wannon for the Coalition.
The only one of the six main teal independent targets I would still rate in doubt is Curtin, and even there Liberal member Celia Hammond will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Postals are favouring her, as they are with the Liberals in all such contests, but they are on track to bite only around 2000 out of Chaney’s existing 3350 vote margin. That would leave her needing some dynamic on absent and out-of-division pre-polls to favour her, the nature of which wouldn’t seem clear at this stage.
Then there’s Cowper, where my system is crediting Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan with a slight advantage over independent Caz Heise. We’re in the very early stages of a two-candidate count between the two in which the only substantial result is the postals, on which preferences are flowing to Heise 67.3-32.7. Applying that split over the projected primary votes, which have Conaghan on 39.6% and Heise on 26.7%, Conaghan would hold on by a margin of 0.6%, which is closer than the 2.0% being produced by the crude estimate of preference slows in my system.
The system is also being slow to call Ryan for the Greens, but I expect that to resolve when the fresh two-candidate count there reaches a sufficient stage that I stop relying on my preference estimates, which cause me to impose a bigger margin of error. There has been some talk of the Greens making it as high as five, but this includes Macnamara which I now can’t see happening. Labor had a very strong result on the first batch of postals, which swung 9.0% in their favour on the primary vote, making it very unlikely they will drop out ahead of both the Greens and the Liberals, which is what it would take for them to lose. The remaining issue is whether Brisbane gets them to four, on which more below.
I don’t imagine my system is too far off calling Lingiari for Labor and Casey, Dickson and Bass for the Coalition, though I’d keep at least half an eye on the latter. Throwing those on the pile, we get Labor to 74, the Coalition to 54, independents to ten and the Greens to three, with Bob Katter still on one, Cowper to either stay Coalition or go independent, and a further eight outstanding from which Labor might get the two extra they need to make it to 76. As I see it, these are, in roughly descending order of likelihood:
Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.
Lyons. Labor’s Brian Mitchell had a very encouraging first batch of postal votes here, breaking 2056-1833 his way. Mitchell leads by 0.6% on the raw count, but I’m projecting this to come out at just 0.1% based on an assumption that the outstanding postals will lean conservative, as they did last time. If further batches of postals put paid to that idea, he can start to breathe easier.
Brisbane. As I noted in yesterday’s post, what we need here not a two but a three-candidate preferred count to establish who will out first out of the Greens and Labor, as the seat will go to whichever survives at this point. While I am projecting the Greens to hold a slight lead on the primary vote, and they should get a fillip in the preference count when Animal Justice are distributed, the postals give Labor more than a shred of hope. Postals are always weak for the Greens, but the first batch has only recorded a 1.3% primary vote swing for them compared with 5.6% overall. If that’s maintained over the rest of the postals, it’s likely to be very close. So unless the AEC does something innovative here, this will have to wait until all the votes are in and the full distribution of preferences is completed.
Gilmore. A similar story to Bennelong insofar as a weaker than anticipated showing for the Liberals on the first batch of postals suggests the final result will come in roughly where it is at the moment. That means lineball in this case, with Liberal member Andrew Constance leading by 306 votes.
Deakin. Here on the other hand postals were favourable to the Liberals, swinging 3.7% to Labor compared with 5.0% overall. While my projection still has Labor 0.5% ahead, if the postal count so far continues over what should be at least 12,000 more yet to come, Michael Sukkar will retain the seat.
Menzies. The postals swung similarly to the overall result here, which is good news for the Liberals because the increased number of them means their natural lean to the Liberals should cause the gap to widen as more can come in, by a greater amount than Labor can hope to reel in on other types of vote.
Sturt. The swing on postals here was in line with the overall result, so I’m satisfied with my projection of a 0.5% Liberal lead, which happens to be very close to the raw count. However, there are enough votes still out there that it can’t be given away yet.
Moore. Labor recorded a below par swing on the first batch of postals, suggesting Liberal member Ian Goodenough’s 1138-vote lead is more likely to widen than shrink, and that Labor will have to make do with four gains in Western Australia rather than five.
I see some of my old stomping grounds mentioned earlier ,I’m an old east oakleigh boy .
The village green. Noting hill pub ,the Mathew flinders and the old blood house down in oakleigh.
Aahhh the go old days as a teenager.
Snappy Tom
Yes and since the 1949 expansion of the House from 74 to the 120’s-
McMahon – 58/125 in 1972
Fraser – 50/125 in 1983
Were the only times the Coalition won fewer than 59 (and those results were in a smaller House)
Even Billy Snedden won 61/127 in 1974.
Another way in which Scott Morrison could make history: if the Coalition end up with 59 seats, that will amount to 39% of the HoR.
That would be slightly worse than 1983, when they won 50 of 125 for 40% of seats.
In terms of percentage of seats, it would be the worst Coalition performance in the history of the Liberal Party and the worst Coalition performance since 1943 (when the Liberal Party didn’t exist.) In 1943, the UAP/CP Coalition won 23 of 74 for 31% of seats.
Scott ‘Historic’ Morrison!
Yeah, the Gerringong booth preferences are arse about.
Doesn’t guarantee Phillips’ win but the difference isn’t 300 to Constance, it’s about 4. There’s not many postals still to come, but the provisionals and absents aren’t in the count yet so it’s possibly just slightly advantage Labor.
Seems 95% certain for 77 (Brisbane) and maybe 51% chance of 78 with Gilmore.
Labor needs a massive clean out of the Liberal sinecures around the joint. The AAT might need to be rebalanced somehow.
It’s Time @ #1413 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 10:19 pm
He jumped well over those boundaries long ago.
Fossil fuel enthusiasts try to shut down debate on emissions by positing that if you don’t put on a hair shirt and give up driving / flying / modern conveniences then you’re a hypocrite. Meanwhile, we’ll just go on making money.
That’s crap of course. We need to phase out coal in the next few decades. It has to go the way of the steam locomotive, bullock drays and candles. We should stop using the stuff ASAP. We need to diversify our exports away from coal before the rest of the world does it for us. Fair transition for affected workers, for investors who come on board. Those who won’t can get stuffed.
For Lars’ amusement:
https://www.rome2rio.com
ratsak at 11.15
If Labor retain Gilmore (and win the other, more likely seats), that would reduce the Coalition to 58 seats to Labor’s 78 – a 20 seat difference.
Scott ‘Historic’ Morrison would have equaled Billy McMahon’s performance of leading the Coalition to 58 seats and defeat, but in McMahon’s case there were only 125 seats in total!
He’s on a mission from God Snappy.
What are the EAV PPVC’s? Each electorate has two, one with COVID19 in the name and one without.
Are they the phone voting results? And how come all of them say the results were counted on Saturday night but all of them just have 0’s across the board?
Fingers crossed for Fiona Phillips in Gilmore.
Has Bree been around today, after she was confident yesterday that Frydenberg would win in Kooyong?
I recall her claiming too that Labor would not gain a seat in WA and the Libs would win Parramatta, Greenway and Macquarie
@snappy Tom: “If Labor retain Gilmore (and win the other, more likely seats), that would reduce the Coalition to 58 seats to Labor’s 78 – a 20 seat difference.
Scott ‘Historic’ Morrison would have equaled Billy McMahon’s performance of leading the Coalition to 58 seats and defeat, but in McMahon’s case there were only 125 seats in total!”
And if you said that on Election Night Leigh Sales would have said” but but but Labor’s Primary, how could they win?!” and fallen over.
”If Labor retain Gilmore (and win the other, more likely seats), that would reduce the Coalition to 58 seats to Labor’s 78 – a 20 seat difference.’
I would have preferred 108-28 or 98-38 but I’ll take it.
ratsak at 11.28
Further to Scotty’s historic mission: the Coalition will lose 17 or 18 seats, ALL of them Liberals!
It is a little tricky because of the combined LNP in Qld – someone earlier posted the numbers of Qlders who are classed as Libs, but I don’t have the energy to find it.
Nevertheless, with the Nats retaining all their seats, this is the worst performance in terms of seat percentage – and possibly outright seat numbers – in the history of the Liberal Party. Ever.
A really good episode of The Drum tonight, worth getting on iview, Tu Le was impressive.
Does anyone care to speculate a path back to government for the LNP from here? They’ve now lost most of their crown jewel, wealthy, inner suburban seats and are left with an even more right leaning rump of people mostly interested in manipulating people to maintain power. Perhaps I’m being premature but I suspect the strong movement against the Liberals in teal seats prefaces a broader decline in their vote and even if they can maintain their vote how can they appeal to a majority of people going forward? The Liberals are at a serious crossroads and probably not in a position right now based on current members to choose a path that might help them in future.
“Also massive expenditure of carbon for 2 people.”
He thinks only TWO people are on that plane. No, 3. The stewardess who serves him Moët. See! Fraud. Living the life of luxury.
Expects bling to come out and Albo to look like those Youtube gurus who love their Lambos who drive in the Hollywood Hills.
See! A sellout.
See, if this was REALLY an issue for Lars, then the real issue is: do you get rid of planes that are at use by the Federal Government. Is that the real issue here? And was it last week or last decade?
I think it’s the psychology trick from Putin via the US Republicans and now care of Libs here, of constantly fiddling with inconsequential stuff and building up a view that Albo has no cred because of e.g. his shirt, or where he sits or where he puts his feet up. And feeds this to their audience non-stop and/or to ALP supporters to demoralise them (“hmmm, well, maybe Albo isn’t all he’s cracked up to be????”).
That’s how the originators (KGB) came up with this stuff. It’s worked very well, almost too well. Fox News makes this their life’s work.
This Lars is, deliberately or accidentally, a desk warrior for higher ugly powers. Watch out for people who do this. It’s very sneaky and incessant.
Liberals are screwed in my opinion, Dutton is unpalatable in urban seats, he only plays well for them amongst the bogans who live in seats they already hold, like Lindsay.
I think the Liberal Party will split in two, the few moderates will try and form a bloc with the Teals, the rest will refashion the Liberals into a party that is more concerned about culture wars than the environment.
MJ – The Annastacia Palaszczuk/Daniel Andrews Playbook.
As opposition leader run a tight, disciplined unit. Have a program of work ready to go – and hopefully your opponents in government will fall over in front of you.
It almost worked for Bill Shorten in 2016….
mj at 11.38
The path back would appear difficult for the Coalition. In the short term, they are actually better off going full-tilt Right wing. Let Dutton loose. Have the media portray EVERYTHING Labor does as a failure. Fame the flames of chaos etc etc etc.
They may not win back Teal seats easily, but they (Coalition + media) might create such an impression of ‘Labor incompetence’ that the Coalition win back (from a NSW perspective, where I live): suburban seats like Reid and Parramatta, regional seats like Robertson and Paterson and maybe one or two other surprises.
They could win back a couple of seats in WA with enough chaos, maybe an extra seat in Qld, along with Lyons, Boothby and Lingiari. Then it would come down to Victoria – could they win some seats there.
That might get them to 70 or more seats, and slightly ahead of Labor.
Could they form ‘confidence and supply’ govt by agreement with Teals?
@mj The path back to government is for the Liberals to double down on outer-suburban aspirational working class tradies, and their associated prejudices, interests and cost of living concerns, leaving the inner city educated to the ALP and Greens and Teals.
The Liberals need to ditch some of their race baiting, particularly amongst Chinese immigrants, and play up their conservative moral views to outer suburban ethic communities who share a similar outlook.
Eventually generational change will turn safe working class seats blue and the ALP will be left as the party of the educated, the inner city and the affluent and the Liberals will be the outer suburban and rural workers party. Residents of Toorak and the Eastern Beaches will wonder what their parents ever saw in the Liberal Party.
Snappy Tom,
Labor has a majority and a generation of leaders who know what division gets’ them. They also have a working majority and a hobbled coalition that’s 50% QLD nationals!!!!!! I can’t overstate how important that point is.
The QLD-LNP, which is what it is now, can go hard right, but the teals will just dig in and build kingdoms. The only way for the coalition to expand it’s base is to become progressive. And that’ll only happen until the current generation is replaced by the young rural folk, who are woke to the issue of climate change and energy transition.
It’s not going to be a quick bounce back. Albo’s got a pretty comfortable 6 years unless someone does something mega boneheaded. And if he delivers a referendum, that’s another big feather in the labor cap. If anything the thing Albo needs to do is start thinking about when in 6-7 years he starts managing a transition out of the top job. Examples like Peter Gutwien or Will Hodgeman leaving at the top of their game come to mind.
mj at 11.41 re path back for Coalition, Part 2…
What if the Liberals took the long view? (I don’t think they will).
Can they transform from part-time Right wing nut jobs into ‘moderates’?
Can they negotiate a ‘merger’ or ‘partnership’ with Teals on the basis of agreed policies – policies that would have to be very different to the current Coalition offerings? Would they adopt ‘gender quotas’ as part of changing their internal culture?
There would be short term pain. They would probably lose seats in Qld, for example. There would be no guarantee of cooperation from Teals. The near future could be very ugly for the Liberals if they choose transformation.
In my view, the Liberals had an opportunity to remain a ‘broad church’. Shortly after Turnbull rolled Abbott, Turnbull was talking about ‘innovation’ etc. The Coalition’s polling immediately got a big boost. Turnbull was a centrist and that’s what Australia wanted.
The party room, however, didn’t want centrist talk. Dutton told Turnbull to talk about immigration rather than innovation. Turnbull became ineffective and they almost lost in 2016 – which the Right, ironically, blamed on Turnbull.
If the Liberals had chosen a ‘moderate’ course, I believe they would have won a thumping victory in 2016. That would mean the National Energy Guarantee – some form of action on climate change – for example.
The Turnbull leadership was probably the last opportunity to prevent the rise of the Teals.
For the late night shift –
George Miller’s latest:
https://youtu.be/TWGvntl9itE
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/movies/on-a-break-from-mad-max-miller-uncorked-a-whimsical-arabian-fantasy-20220522-p5anhf.html
@snappytom
I don’t know a full-tilt, right wing hammering of the govt will work as well now, especially that there is now a significant crossbench of thoughtful people who can freely call it out. If there is a significant economic crisis which is definitely possible in the next few years, it might work.
With Dutton likely to become Opposition Leader, it’s an appropriate time to recall “Border Farce”: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/28/f-is-for-farce-how-australian-border-force-united-the-nation-against-it
Seriously, Peter Dutton has disturbing authoritarian tendencies, I wouldn’t want his hands anywhere near the levers of power. He’s a dour soul, with all the charisma of a potato, which renders him a little less dangerous. He’s not Tony Abbott, who could at least be amusing at times. Nor is he Donald Trump, more Adam Sutler without the religiosity.
@AngoraFish
Interesting perspective, and it may well turn out that way. Labor might become the Liberal party and vice versa.
Can’t see how Dutton is appealing in any way…maybe it’s just me but he gives off an extremely malevolent vibe.
I’d prefer they went with someone like Karen Andrews or Simon Birmingham (if he was in the lower house) but it doesn’t look likely.
Dutton should not be underestimated.
Watch for endless articles softening him. Oh, he’s not the hard man he’s portrayed as. He’s a family man. He’s conservative, but he’s a pragmatist! He’s a gun local member who has held a traditional Labor seat since 2001.
(slmost none of any of that is true, of course – um, he has a family, I guess. My first ever vote was against him when he unseated Cheryl Kernot in the actually still-newish seat with a very short history. He was visiting the booth I voted at, the Arana Hills Church of Christ. If he becomes Prime Minister, I can tell people that my last words to a future Prime Minister were “tell your story walking, fuckface.”)
Steve777,
I agree re dutton, If I were the ALP AG / Home Affairs minister I’d be cautioning the ASIO boss on over briefing Dutton on anything. He’ll put intelligence in play for political games.
Snappy Tom
If the ALP and others leave these outer areas open in a vacuum; not keep consulting and delivering for the local area – yes, the Libs will stage a good comeback. And there’s plenty of seats to base in if that turns out to be successful.
It would be great to get a breakdown of how much influence Murdoch had on these outer suburban seats.
I think Morrison really hit the reputation of the Libs, and I dont know if Dutton is the one to build up the reputation again.
And also, are there many bright minds left in the Libs that aren’t kinda ‘feral’?
This election was a really good go at being like this, and the L/NP have had their worst result in ages.
I agree that agreement with Teals, who will be bigger and stronger, and even competing for those seats, along with the Greens and ALP. I mean, that looks very enticing to see next time around.
Those who think this is a probable future might be giving the Libs competence they don’t have.
It’s a bit like players in a market. Someone comes in with a new idea that scoops the market share. Previous #1 thinks they have the market stitched up, but two new upstarts come in and carve out the market. Then they disappear. Radio stations have this going on a lot as well. I’m sure you can think of examples as well (Kodak, Blockbuster). Well, the Libs may be Kodak or instead, Apple post-Jobs back and pre-iPhone
Another big one that got burst this election is: just because the media determine that X has a personality trait, and hit it over and over again, doesn’t mean it works if:
a) people can see that they aren’t that way (particularly if they slip up and say the quiet bit loud)
b) it’s a joke that they are that (e.g. welding, tackling a kid)
Traditionally in a political lense, if your opponent says something, then you must counter it immediately because you think people will just walk to the other side as if called on cue.
Could the media go more feral for a candidate than we got this year for Morrison? Sure. Then it starts getting in the realm of dangerous and fascist. In fact, I bet each time they put lipstick on the SfM pig, people went “yeah, right” and tuned out even more.
It’s as if noone has agency (or even worse, all people are gullible if you say “vote for me and I’ll give you $1000”) so you must make sure your opponent has no media time.
That will work to an extent, but if you and I see Dutton as this weird guy, do you think some TicToc kid will NOT see this, or some woman in her 30s? He gives off definite signals.
If the Libs want to make anything go better, they need to drop him.
He won’t make the same idiotic mistakes. He’s more Reinhard Heydrich than Scott Morrison (there, I said it).
So my thoughts in a few elections from now are that we might see votes distribute as:
20% Left Green – well educated, working to middle class.
10% Blue Green – well educated, well off.
40% Vibe – pay little to no attention and votes for whoever sounds better. Mostly unaligned major party swing voters in the working to middle class.
20% Economic Right – pay little to no attention to politics and mostly well off.
10% Hard right – freedumb fighters.
happyez,
The liberals need someone tall dark and handsome, who’s funny, with a long record of public volunteering, with a knockout wife and two perfect kids. If they can’t find that, then they’re doomed.
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/mark-mcgowan-calls-peter-dutton-dumb/
mj, south, happyez
Time for me to clock off.
The one future certainty is uncertainty. I hope there is a Labor ‘long term strategy unit’ war-gaming the next three years (plus!) from an election-winning perspective…
Lots of strengths/weaknesses/opportunities/threats analyses:
What if the Libs go harder right? What if they go moderate? Any other options for them? How might their new leader/s operate? etc etc
Any thoughts on why Labor seemingly lost 3-6% of their primary in the last week or two of the campaign? On 1/5 Newspoll had it at 38 and a week later on 8/5 it was 39. By 13/5 is was still 38. Yet by Friday 20/5 is had dropped 2 to 36 with that going to indies and other parties.
Had Newspoll over-inflated Labor’s primary or did they really suffer a decent size drop in the last week? I note that Newspoll had the LNP primary pretty accurate during the campaign.
Ipsos had the LNP primary low going 32, 31, 29 before a sudden jump back up to 35 on 19/5.
Was it the LNP launch, the confected outrage from the media about Labor’s costings? Did the interest rate rise end up paradoxically hurting Labor? Did Morrison’s crass raid your super housing policy affect things?
McGowan is a sensible man, as much as he’s downplayed it Federal Labor has been helped alot at the Fed election by his premiership in WA.
@Charles
I don’t know if Labor lost votes or just didn’t have them from the start but the super for house deposits initiative could definately have moved votes.
The luvvies from the ABC may become a little uncomfortable with some honest investiation into their “journalistic” roles and the substantial renumeration they
receive.
The same luvvies may well feel a little guilty when the reports of “herding” by the Morrison Liberal government, using public money has influenced the rather inaccurate reporting of the election.
Transparency may have been shunted sideways by governments of all ilks but the Morrison LNP government well and truely buried transparency.
Dutton as a leader, indicates some reluctance to face reality. Laughable lack of self awareness really.
The poor standard of behavior by journalists affected Labor in the last 10 days. Albo would be asked a Q. Halfway through answering it someone would interject with another question. This was repeated over and over.
Albanese tried to answer all the interjections and finished up answering nothing clearly. The interviews for maybe 10 minutes became white noise. Boring. On the other hand, Morrison answered his own interpretation of the Q for as long and as loud as he liked and would not allow a follow up. He zeroed in on his topic whereas Albo couldn’t get his message across.
Next election I would not allow as many CPG journalists on the plane / bus, only enough with local reporters to provide a fair coverage.
@King OMalley
re “unofficial LNP cheersquad”
I will point out there was a very strong push in that very same media against the teals/greens. I confess I adhere to the following quote “It is not possible for any thinking person to live in such a society as our own without wanting to change it.” So I am underwhelmed by the ALP small target, small policy, don’t rock the boat strategy and I will repeat it seems I am not alone in this view.
Factional politics allow a small group like the NSW labor right faction to dominate a larger group ultimately to everyone’s detriment(Fowler). The ALP’s primary vote is currently printing at 32.8%.
I’ve scrutineered, the AEC has an amazing system, everything is checked and double checked. As all ballot papers have to be accounted for this is nonsense.
That aside, why would anyone bother?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/24/zero-evidence-to-back-clive-palmers-claim-of-staff-taking-ballots-home-aec-says
Anthony Albanese will sign Australia up to a new US-led Asia-Pacific economic bloc aimed at countering Chinese regional dominance, as he meets Quad allies in Tokyo.
The signatories joining the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework are Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Along with the United States, they represent 40% of world GDP.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-and-12-countries-join-new-indo-pacific-trade-pact-01653294234
Yep, much better that Albanese’s mum didn’t call him Norman, then Anthony. 😀
I have a feeling the Greens’ position on the Uluru statement is driven by fear of Thorpe as much as anything.
She has a history of walking out of rooms if she doesn’t get what she wants.
(The alternative accounts has her being thrown out of rooms for being disrespectful and then rewriting history to make herself look like someone standing on principle, but that’s not much better…)
The Greens policy was to support the Statement in full. Then Thorpe was elected (by the membership). The Greens then changed their policy.
They THEN went through an internal process to justify changing their policy.
It might be acceptable for one person to drive the Greens position on this. It is not to have one person driving the nation’s.
frednk @ #1493 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:58 am
frednk,
It’s just the Trump thing. Just as well 95% of Australians aren’t as foolish as the 5% that voted for him. They will see that claim for what it is. A load of absolute crap.
I scrutineered too on Saturday. I also signed the AEC paperwork to close the boxes and the Liberal and, *cough* UAP scrutineers witnessed the opening of the boxes and the counting of the votes. Nothing untoward occurred. In fact, they were super fussy to find a way, every time, to get the vote recorded that was being expressed. Which, quite frankly, applied to the schemozzle of a ballot paper submitted by some people who wanted to vote for the UAP. So, really, instead of complaining, Trump style, that the election was stolen from ‘PM Craig Kelly’ and the UAP, he should be thanking the AEC for going out of their way to find a way to make sure his voters were counted.
Roy Ah See said yesterday, when he was being interviewed on the ABC, that Lidia Thorpe stormed out of the Uluru Statement Congress when she couldn’t get her way too. She’s a real, my way or the highway, kind of person. But as Roy Ah See said, the voice that came out of the Congress was the Black Voice. There’s also the Red Voice (Labor) and the Blue Voice (Coalition) and Lidia Thorpe simply represents the Green voice. Not the only voice.
New thread?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/24/federal-election-live-day-three-2/
ratsak says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 11:15 pm
Yeah, the Gerringong booth preferences are arse about.
Doesn’t guarantee Phillips’ win but the difference isn’t 300 to Constance, it’s about 4. There’s not many postals still to come, but the provisionals and absents aren’t in the count yet so it’s possibly just slightly advantage Labor.
———-
Kevin Bonham said last night that Phillips is now 54 ahead. This one will, as they say in the classifieds, go down to the wire.