Click here for full federal election results updated live.
There were two developments in counting yesterday, one of which was that batches of postal votes were counted in every seat. Taken in aggregate they recorded a bigger swing to Labor than booth and pre-poll votes, consistent with the notion that the 70% increase in applications would make the postal voter population more representative and less conservative than in past years. However, this doesn’t mean Labor can expect a surge in its favour in late counting, since the swing is not so big as to completely eradicate postal voting’s conservative lean and they are in greater in overall number now.
The other development was that fresh two-candidate preferred counts were commenced in three interesting (Griffith, Ryan and Cowper) and seven uninteresting (Bradfield, Calare, Sydney, Hinkler, Maranoa, Melbourne and Grey) races. None of these counts is very far advanced, and for several it was just a case of throwing to new pairs of candidates during today’s counting of postal votes. However, we can presumably expect them to go back through the ordinary votes and publish fresh two-candidate preferred results in fairly short order.
There are another four seats where it is clear the wrong two candidates were picked for the candidate on the night, but in which new counts have not been commenced since it is not clear which candidate will drop out before the final count, of which I rate one to be very much in doubt (Brisbane) and three not so (Richmond, Macnamara and Wannon). We won’t know exactly what’s happened in these races until all the votes are in and the full distributions of preferences are conducted.
My system is definitively calling 72 seats for Labor, 47 for the Coalition, three for independents, two for the Greens and one for Bob Katter, but there are a number involving independents that it is being too slow to give away, which I should probably do something about. These include Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Kooyong, where the Liberals can hope for no more from postals than to reduce the teal independents’ winning margins, and Fowler, where Kristina Keneally seemingly can’t even hope for that much. Conversely, the presence of independents in the race is making the system too slow to call Bradfield, Nicholls and Wannon for the Coalition.
The only one of the six main teal independent targets I would still rate in doubt is Curtin, and even there Liberal member Celia Hammond will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Postals are favouring her, as they are with the Liberals in all such contests, but they are on track to bite only around 2000 out of Chaney’s existing 3350 vote margin. That would leave her needing some dynamic on absent and out-of-division pre-polls to favour her, the nature of which wouldn’t seem clear at this stage.
Then there’s Cowper, where my system is crediting Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan with a slight advantage over independent Caz Heise. We’re in the very early stages of a two-candidate count between the two in which the only substantial result is the postals, on which preferences are flowing to Heise 67.3-32.7. Applying that split over the projected primary votes, which have Conaghan on 39.6% and Heise on 26.7%, Conaghan would hold on by a margin of 0.6%, which is closer than the 2.0% being produced by the crude estimate of preference slows in my system.
The system is also being slow to call Ryan for the Greens, but I expect that to resolve when the fresh two-candidate count there reaches a sufficient stage that I stop relying on my preference estimates, which cause me to impose a bigger margin of error. There has been some talk of the Greens making it as high as five, but this includes Macnamara which I now can’t see happening. Labor had a very strong result on the first batch of postals, which swung 9.0% in their favour on the primary vote, making it very unlikely they will drop out ahead of both the Greens and the Liberals, which is what it would take for them to lose. The remaining issue is whether Brisbane gets them to four, on which more below.
I don’t imagine my system is too far off calling Lingiari for Labor and Casey, Dickson and Bass for the Coalition, though I’d keep at least half an eye on the latter. Throwing those on the pile, we get Labor to 74, the Coalition to 54, independents to ten and the Greens to three, with Bob Katter still on one, Cowper to either stay Coalition or go independent, and a further eight outstanding from which Labor might get the two extra they need to make it to 76. As I see it, these are, in roughly descending order of likelihood:
Bennelong. Yesterday’s 5760 postals broke 3131-2629 to Liberal, but this marked a 12.2% swing to Labor compared with 2019 and suggested postals will not give Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy the lift he needs to close what remains a 1749 vote Labor lead. Whatever they Liberals gain on remaining postals seems likely to be approximately matched by advantages to Labor on other types of outstanding vote.
Lyons. Labor’s Brian Mitchell had a very encouraging first batch of postal votes here, breaking 2056-1833 his way. Mitchell leads by 0.6% on the raw count, but I’m projecting this to come out at just 0.1% based on an assumption that the outstanding postals will lean conservative, as they did last time. If further batches of postals put paid to that idea, he can start to breathe easier.
Brisbane. As I noted in yesterday’s post, what we need here not a two but a three-candidate preferred count to establish who will out first out of the Greens and Labor, as the seat will go to whichever survives at this point. While I am projecting the Greens to hold a slight lead on the primary vote, and they should get a fillip in the preference count when Animal Justice are distributed, the postals give Labor more than a shred of hope. Postals are always weak for the Greens, but the first batch has only recorded a 1.3% primary vote swing for them compared with 5.6% overall. If that’s maintained over the rest of the postals, it’s likely to be very close. So unless the AEC does something innovative here, this will have to wait until all the votes are in and the full distribution of preferences is completed.
Gilmore. A similar story to Bennelong insofar as a weaker than anticipated showing for the Liberals on the first batch of postals suggests the final result will come in roughly where it is at the moment. That means lineball in this case, with Liberal member Andrew Constance leading by 306 votes.
Deakin. Here on the other hand postals were favourable to the Liberals, swinging 3.7% to Labor compared with 5.0% overall. While my projection still has Labor 0.5% ahead, if the postal count so far continues over what should be at least 12,000 more yet to come, Michael Sukkar will retain the seat.
Menzies. The postals swung similarly to the overall result here, which is good news for the Liberals because the increased number of them means their natural lean to the Liberals should cause the gap to widen as more can come in, by a greater amount than Labor can hope to reel in on other types of vote.
Sturt. The swing on postals here was in line with the overall result, so I’m satisfied with my projection of a 0.5% Liberal lead, which happens to be very close to the raw count. However, there are enough votes still out there that it can’t be given away yet.
Moore. Labor recorded a below par swing on the first batch of postals, suggesting Liberal member Ian Goodenough’s 1138-vote lead is more likely to widen than shrink, and that Labor will have to make do with four gains in Western Australia rather than five.
Is the Child Care business of Dutton’s wife a former ABC Learning site?
“Fast” Eddie Groves a LNP donor of some reputation
And the Federal government responding to that collapse as it did
The Aston area is typical of much of Melbourne’s east having been Liberal up until the 1980s then being marginal ALP until the 1990s recession then marginal Liberal in the Howard years before becoming safer Liberal.
Bird of paradox says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:08 pm
Nath: more likely the boomers who bought houses there back in the 80’s stayed put and became reliable Lib voters, while their Green-voting kids moved out. Moore (WA) is another seat like that.
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Could be. I think in the old days there were lot of hippies in the Ferntree Gully area. Maybe they moved to Daylesford.
It was wrong before and is now corrected. The swing figure was right, but not the TPP.
I wonder if the burghers of Menzies appreciate the suburban rail loop, helping the move towards Labor. Guess we will see later in the year.
Worst. Four Corners. Ever.
There is a tale to tell on what this election means. But just regurgitating the MSM memes on gaffes and the daily bubble is to miss the entire point of what just occurred. I hope in years to come it will be the masterclass in the nadir of journalism of the ABC.
We got fifty minutes of horse race commentary… then two minutes at the end of “oh yeah and the actual voters decided that climate change integrity gender equity and political culture were rooly rooly important. Not going to change what we do tho.
Not sure what’s going on with the count in Curtin, have been waiting for an update all day but there’s been no votes added today so far.
Nath
Not likely but the ALP did run a women from a police background.
I do like the way that after asking the vox pops who they’re voting for, the reporter responds with “why?” in that tone you use when talking to an idiot who’s doing something stupid.
4 corners dealing with the appalling performance of the press would be worthwhile, but this?
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:19 pm
Nath
Not likely but the ALP did run a women from a police background.
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They should be. A station at Doncaster will make their lives a lot easier.
The loosest of unit says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:53 pm
What will Peter Duttons nickname be…
Ped… you know what, never mind…
What time did everyone feel like scomo was gone – for me it was 7.20 and the alp was leading in more seats and the primary was way down for the lnp
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I think it was the moment the LNP seat haul on the counter stalled at around 50 and the ALP kept growing i now it was later so prob around 8-9pm, also the v low PV of the LNP at less than 40% at the start helped but this was a bit off-set by the ALP at around 28.
Nath
People in Doncaster have seen this movie before and wont believe it until the train arrives.
ABC still having trouble admitting labor won.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:22 pm
Nath
People in Doncaster have seen this movie before and wont believe it until the train arrives.
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Yes that’s true. It’s an old story.
I remain convinced another station in Bulleen is needed. One station (Doncaster) between Box Hill and Heidelberg is not enough.
The journey ahead will be interesting, but then a journey should be. It’s time for Australia to reach a destination.
“The incoming Indigenous MP for Australia’s red centre says the Greens are a bigger threat to the voice to parliament than the Coalition, as the left-wing party pushes a treaty between the government and Aboriginal people before any national Indigenous body.
Greens leader Adam Bandt on Monday dug in on the party’s official position that a $250m truth commission and a treaty process were higher priorities than Labor’s promised referendum on an Indigenous voice.
Tiwi woman Marion Scrymgour, Labor’s likely victor in the knife-edge count for the seat of Lingiari, said she believed the greatest threat to constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians did not come from the right but from the hard left.
“I’m not so much worried about the Liberals; it’s more the Greens,” she said.
“While they say they are friends of Indigenous people, they’re not really because they just want to run their outrageous agendas all the time.”
Victoria’s treaty process has been running for almost four years and negiotions have not started. In Canada’s province of British Columbia, the best known example of a modern treaty with First Nations people, the process lasted more than a decade.
The Greens were the first party to fully endorse the Uluru statement and its call for a voice in 2017 but they changed their policy after Uluru detractor Lidia Thorpe joined their ranks as a senator in 2020. Senator Thorpe was among activists at the time of the summit who walked out over the voice proposal, arguing a treaty should be top priority.”
Incoming Indigenous Australians minister Linda Burney said on Monday that the new government supported a treaty but it would take time.
“Treaties are complex. We need to look at the states and territories that already have treaty processes under way and look at the structures in place, the architecture,” she said. Competing priorities in Indigenous affairs in the new parliament have emerged as a record number of Indigenous Australians prepare to become MPs.
Counting from Saturday’s election continued on Monday but Australians have voted nine and possibly 10 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people into federal parliament.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/incoming-indigenous-labor-mp-calls-greens-a-bigger-threat-to-a-voice-to-parliament-than-coalition/news-story/6028697104d58c490253d2295a0cb881
Might have been answered earlier, but why has the projected 2PP for the ALP dropped to 51.8% from 52.9% earlier today
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Oh. Great. I got one of the guessing game prizes then.
Nath – Only the bit to Doncaster is planned properly at this stage. The rest is a little pie in the sky stuff. They still have a station in the middle of Fawkner cemetery.
I’m not sure if it’s been noted here but a friend of mine on FB has pointed out that there is no longer a Sydney Ferries stop or a Melbourne tram stop in a locality represented by a Liberal.
LOL even an idiot like me knew unemployment would drop drastically when you close the borders for 2 years.
Menzies looks a missed opportunity for the teals had they fielded a strong candidate.
Peter Dutton will be our first ex-police officer to serve as Federal Leader of the Opposition since Bill Hayden.
nath: I remain convinced another station in Bulleen is needed. One station (Doncaster) between Box Hill and Heidelberg is not enough.
More likely in Templestowe IMO. Then next stop Greensborough/Bundoora. It means they could open up big areas around golf courses for development. Biggest issue for suburban rail loop for Heidelberg is that they’d need to go under the new tunnel for the NE link. More likely they’ll link to Watsonia station. Just south of that is where the new tunnel goes into the ground to rise out of the ground at the east-link freeway.
Another decade before they even start though…
“Greens leader Adam Bandt on Monday dug in on the party’s official position that a $250m truth commission and a treaty process were higher priorities than Labor’s promised referendum on an Indigenous voice.”
FWIW (not much) I agree with the position that actual recompense would be better and this has been a difficult and poorly managed issue. I forecast that Greens will not do anything to oppose the Voice and will certainly support it at a referendum although Lidia’s speech will be interesting to watch.
[/totalfanboi]
@Slackboy72 Monday, May 23, 2022 at 7:18 pm
You sound like a Souths hater with that classist reference to “Souffs”. Not an Easts supporter by any chance?
@plato I’m not disagreeing, that’s why I said Burns is overwhelmingly likely to win.
I also don’t think, or never implied, that it would be possible for Labor to fall to third on postals or even after absents, provisionals, dec prepolls and Covid postals.
We need to remember the Covid postals will break NOTHING like early postals and the last 1500-2000 or so postals to be received will likely be that.
What I am saying we need to look out for, and why we can’t just assume Labor have won, is that we don’t know how much the absents, prepolls, provisional and Covid votes (postal and telephone) will at least keep the Greens within striking distance.
I think we can almost guarantee that Labor by far will get the lowest share of preferences from the 9% minor party out of the 3, so all I’m saying isthat if both Libs and Greens are within under 1.5% of Labor, then those preferences could eliminate Labor.
Again, not saying they will, and I did say Josh is at least an 80% chance to win so overwhelmingly likely, but its certainly not out of the question that Labor won’t lead by more than 1.5% before munor preferences, and if they lead by less than that, the preference flows will tighten it right up.
C@ttomma at 7.29am – note i voted labour
Your problem is your full of bullsh@t. People smugglers make money out of people arriving on planes. There is no working queue for refuges, if you turn up to a UN refuge camp you can assume it is your home for life. Only the desperate turn up on a boat.It seems to me you’re only contribution is having hysterical reactions to MSM speaking points (either pro or against). I have only ever voted ALP, my concern with policies on refugees, climate change, Julian Assange etc etc has led me into doubt and I have voted informally in recent times – however my biggest doubt walking into the booth to vote ALP was agreeing with your belligerent foolishness (this is true). The blog would be so much better off if you and Boerdom would occasionally STFU – do you really need to tell everybody what you think 30 times a day—how about bringing something to the discussion besides your opinion. You are are damaging the ALP brand. And yes it would be nice if Firefox did not post green propaganda and whoever is playing the current conservative would just go away.
“Peter Dutton will be our first ex-police officer to serve as Federal Leader of the Opposition since Bill Hayden.”
Compare the pair.
One of them served before the Fitzgerald Enquiry. One joined straight after.
nath says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Bird of paradox says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:08 pm
Nath: more likely the boomers who bought houses there back in the 80’s stayed put and became reliable Lib voters, while their Green-voting kids moved out. Moore (WA) is another seat like that.
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Could be. I think in the old days there were lot of hippies in the Ferntree Gully area. Maybe they moved to Daylesford.
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As a former Aston(ish) resident (as the boundaries changed alot) for my formative years than I admit, the area had alot of changes. In the 70s it was all very newly developed outer suburban, working class, big blocks being developed, bush/rural still around (was old market garden territory), so right on the outer boundary, plenty of manufacturing jobs down Canterbury road/burwood Hwy – Cadbudy was there. In terms of cultural background, lotsa new migrants but of the UK, South Africa kind moving in. Housing stock was pretty cheap, new build and land was plentiful. My family moved there from UK in the 70s and always built new houses on vacant land, 2 cars, the whole suburban dream on working class factory work money.
80s, bit the same but the area was more developed and the industries started to go, so becoming more aspirational but well off enough during the Hawke/Keating era all swung away to Howard, so the just right Howard battler classes and well targeted. In the 80s we were in the State seat of Bayswater and that swung away in the late 80s.
Other notable from the 80s onward was the move of the Churchy do-gooders with the establishment of the Hillsong types. The suburban spraw was limited by vacant land and the Dandenongs. So in some was the Aston of old is like the Melton of now.
One thing Labor should emulate the LNP on when it comes to the budget is to make sure you project a much bigger deficit in future, so that when you reach that future you can always claim a great much better number than what was forecast!!
@Shrodingers Cat 7:20pm
Re poor ALP result; you seem to have failed to consider the minor matter of the tabloid media acting as the unofficial LNP cheersquad.
LOL even an idiot like me knew unemployment would drop drastically when you close the borders for 2 years
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Not to mention pumping money in. MMT anyone?
Martin B at 9.29
True re Sydney Ferries, but if Deakin and Menzies remain Liberal, they can boast they still represent the odd tram stop!
Rowville was sub divided during the 1980’s, the building blocks selling to individuals and to builders for $50,000-, representing a 100% return to the developers over and above broad acre purchase cost plus development, so utilities, roads etc etc plus finance costs and approval costs
The builders bought on Terms Contracts
It was not an expensive sub division
And attracted accordingly
Public transport was absent – but now I would expect a bus network
The Glen Waverley train line was the nearest access to the rail network
Why safe Liberal?
Cheap land, bigger homes and (at least) 2 cars
And, because of the absence of access to the rail network, “tradies” not looking to access the CBD or other business hubs for employment
So self employed driving their vehicles
My guess anyway
And are the Pentecostals there, as they are in seat of Woods MP?
I would expect so
I’m with Roy Ah-See:
There’s a strong air of anticipation among supporters of an enshrined First Nations Voice to Parliament following Labor’s resounding Federal election victory at the weekend.
Among the first words uttered by newly-minted Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in his victory speech on Saturday night was a recommitment to enacting the Uluru Statement from the Heart in full.
That prominence was cause for optimism, according to Uluru Statement leader Roy Ah-See.
“The sense… is just palpable at the moment in our in our in our space and in our communities because Albo is representative of where we come from as First Nations people,” he said.
“His mum’s a single parent and… he comes from… social housing, so therefore, he’s very well versed in terms of challenges faced by the majority of our people and communities.
“He’s also got a really powerful leadership team around him – Linda Burney, Penny Wong and others within the Labor Party that that are open to these social challenges.”
Movement on the Voice to Parliament is expected quickly, with Labor promising a referendum to enshrine it in the Constitution in its first term.
The Greens have promised not to block Labor’s mandate on the Voice, however they have said they will push for action on Treaty and Truth at the same time.
The Indigenous voice in parliament has also been strengthened to 10 members across both houses, up from seven prior to the election.
“I think it’s sensational,” Mr Ah-See said.
“However, in saying that, we’ve got a green voice, we’ve got a red voice, and we got a blue voice.
“Our people want a black voice that is representative of our people.”
Mr Ah-See also aired a warning for the Liberal and National parties should they continue their opposition to a referendum this term.
The people have spoken, they have tossed out key people within the Liberal Party, and if Liberal Party is not careful, they are gonna find they’re going to be in opposition for a long, long time,” he said.
“This is above politics.”
The Voice campaign team has put forward several dates to hold a referendum, including May 27 next year or January 27, 2024.
https://www.nit.com.au/palpable-wave-of-optimism-spreads-over-voice-to-parliament-supporters-after-labor-victory/
The ABC played a large part in the rise of One Nation & other right wing fringe groups.. by giving them oxygen in their formative years, Leigh Sales comes to mind in part of this.
4 Corners tonight shared the ABC obsession with the VOX pop… another form of trash Reality TV, cheap to produce & devoid of content or meaning.
Caroline Jones would not approve.
So it looks like the first cab of the rank for Green damage is the Uluru statement.
It is going to be difficult, I have no doubt the Greens can screw it up.
Here we go again says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:43 pm
The Glen Waverley train line was the nearest access to the rail network
Why safe Liberal?
Cheap land, bigger homes and (at least) 2 cars
And, because of the absence of access to the rail network, “tradies” not looking to access the CBD or other business hubs for employment
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Pretty much sums it up, we were on the other side of the Glen Waverly line near Ringwood. Had a 45min train to the city but to go across to Rowville no chance as buses non-existent.
Other thing, as a young person, nothing to do there, no pubs, clubs or anything local and no real way to get to anything fun other than driving to the city. Luckily enough I ended up going to school in the city, and wow what a shock, lots of non-WASP students, places to go with your new mates to exotic areas like Richmond, Coburg, Altona, Yarraville and Oakleigh.
Lars von Trier:
I presume that’s the script for your next film – seems about the right combination of complexity and tedium to find a hallowed place in your oeuvre!
Well I thought 4 corners was very good in having thoughtful undecided voters going through a campaign and sorting out the issues. And they decided to go for change. Just the sort of careful thinking we would hope all voters go through. Despite the reactionary Murdoch led media pack.
Regarding the Voice, a failed referendum would be disastrous. A failed referendum put the Republic back a generation. The danger is that the same might happen here.
I would suggest that we start with a legislated Voice this term, in consultation with Indigenous representatives. Iron out any bugs and get a wary electorate used to the idea so that it would be much more difficult to wage scare campaigns against it. Have the referendum once this Voice has been operating for a few years. Pledge to get a legislated Voice ASAP – we should be able to get that done by end 2023 at latest. Pledge to hold the referendum by, say, end 2026.
@Confessions:
“Linda Burney is on 730 appealing to the opposition to come on the Uluru Statement journey with the government.
With Dutton as leader I’d say there’s no chance of that happening. Didn’t Dutton boycott the Stolen Generations apology all those years ago?”
Time to give an early test to the loud proclamations that Dutton isn’t an extreme righty but a “pragmatist”.
(You know, if someone tells him it’s a chance to wedge the Greens, that might actually get him to do it).
Steve777,
On the referendum, the trick is to just not fund the No case.
Why couldn’t albo have flown commercial to Tokyo? Getting rid of the personal jet would have shown he was serious about cost of living?
First thing he does is go all exclusive !
Seemed like 4 Corners was designed to be a celebration of Miracle 2.0 that came undone at 2 minutes to midnight.
E. G. Theodore @ #1388 Monday, May 23rd, 2022 – 9:54 pm
Funny how there were never ANY ‘tests’ for the Coalition government. Until the election. It was simply a free for all.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:22 pm
The loosest of unit says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 8:53 pm
What time did everyone feel like scomo was gone – for me it was 7.20 and the alp was leading in more seats and the primary was way down for the lnp
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I think it was the moment the LNP seat haul on the counter stalled at around 50 and the ALP kept growing i now it was later so prob around 8-9pm, also the v low PV of the LNP at less than 40% at the start helped but this was a bit off-set by the ALP at around 28.
———
It was way later than that for me. The worst moment was when Antony Green pulled up the national 2PP, then at 50/50, and commented WTTE: the polls forecast a swing of 4%, and maybe there will be, but there’s no sign of it so far. The poor results in Bass and Braddon also had me feeling we were doing 2019 again for a while there. Then as seats slowly started falling to the ALP and Greens and the impact of the Teal wave became apparent, I started breathing easier. Then WA, now my 2nd favourite State, brought it home. Sandgropers all is forgiven!
Lars von Trier:
Top 5 tests for Albo in the New Parliament:
1. What to do when a Labor MP is accused of “misbehaviour” with a younger , more junior female staffer/adviser?
2. Greens – Friends or foe?
3. Party Political appointments – lots of Labor hacks looking for gigs – what’s the go? Is it same / same but different or not?
4. FICAC – what happens when a Labor Minister is referred by the Opposition to FICAC – will they be standing down pending an inquiry?
5. Can you say “no” to a Labor state Premier / union/ welfare lobby group?
I presume that’s the script for your next film – seems about the right combination of complexity and tedium to find a hallowed place in your oeuvre!
Funny how there were never ANY ‘tests’ for the Coalition government. Until the election. It was simply a free for all.
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Lars should sell this screen treatment to the Fox network, they would do a miniseries on Skynoos and could make a motsa
frednk says:
Monday, May 23, 2022 at 9:51 pm
“So it looks like the first cab of the rank for Green damage is the Uluru statement.
It is going to be difficult, I have no doubt the Greens can screw it up.”
I have made the effort to read the Greens’ webpage about how they didn’t actually screw Rudd over. They just wanted a perfect carbon reduction policy and Rudd wasn’t offering it.
All the new government has to do to avoid conflict over the Uluru statement is to do it exactly as Adam Bandt wants. Perfect!!
Assuming Dutton is the new Liberal Leader, what are we tipping for first Newspoll?
58-42? Higher?