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Sunday updates
4pm. I gather that in seats where the AEC deemed it had picked the wrong candidates for the TCP count, it has picked new candidates and is throwing to those with the postal vote counts it is conducting today. Presumably it will do new TCP counts for the ordinary votes in these seats in due course, but for now the only TCP figures in these seats are for postals.
That at least is the situation in Bradfield, and I’ve rejigged everything for that seat so the page shows whatever results are available from the fresh TCP count rather than the redundant Liberal-versus-Labor one. The independent contender, Nicolette Boele, hasn’t done nearly as well on the postals (13.8%) as the pre-poll (24.6%) and polling booths (23.1%). She has however received nearly three-quarters of the preferences from the postals, which leave her short by around 52-48 if applied to the overall results. However, she will presumably lose further ground as more postals are added.
I’ll now to through all the other seats where I’d have thought this might be happening and will add commentary as I go.
End of election night
A lot more naturally remains to be said, but as was the case with the commentary I offered here last night, I’ll let my results system do the talking and mostly limit myself to explaining what it’s up to. First, I should note that my reading of the national two-party preferred – 52.8-47.2 in favour of Labor – is 1% stronger for Labor than the ABC’s, which is quite a lot closer to Nine’s projection, and I’m not going to pretend you should take my word for it over theirs. I’ll have a closer look at this tomorrow, but given the state of the primary votes and the large number of votes still outstanding, a lot of this is necessarily based on projection.
As you can see at the top of the entry page, I’m currently calling 71 seats for Labor, 46 for the Coalition, two for the Greens, three for independents and one for Katter’s Australian Party. However, this largely reflects the fact that the system is very cautious in making calls in most of the seats where independents and the Greens are looking formidable, for reasons that will be explained shortly.
Bennelong, Gilmore, Deakin, Menzies, Bass, Lyons, Sturt, Lingiari, Moore and — to stretch the elastic a little — Monash, Casey and Dickson are the old-fashioned kind of in doubt, with close races between Labor and Coalition candidates that could go either way on late counting. Projections here are based on comparison of how the votes in so far matched up with the equivalent votes last time, and an assumption that postals, absents and out-of-division pre-polls will record broadly similar swings (there are also a fair few pre-poll voting centres around the place that didn’t complete their counting last night, despite the head start they had for the first time in sorting their envelopes from 4pm).
However, it’s possible that postal votes in particular will behave quite a bit differently this time in swing terms due to a roughly 70% increase in the application rate. If that results in the postal voter pool being more demographically representative, these votes could be less conservative than usual. For the time being though, this is only a hypothesis.
Most of the seats that are listed as in doubt are ones where there is no historic data by which this result can readily be compared with the last, as is the case in the many seats where non-incumbent independents are in the race. My system applies a wider margin of error in these cases, meaning a fairly substantial lead is required before the 99% probability threshold is crossed and the seat is deemed to be called. For example, no human observer doubts that Allegra Spender has defeated Dave Sharma in Wentworth, but my system isn’t all the way there yet.
The AEC has pulled its two-candidate preferred counts in 15 seats where it deems it picked the wrong candidates, although it seems this hasn’t caused the results to disappear from my pages, which I believe is a happy accident. My two-party projections in these seats work off my estimates of how preferences will flow to the candidates deemed likely to finish first and second. There are a few here that warrant explanation or discussion:
Brisbane. While it is clear LNP member Trevor Evans will lose this seat, it is not clear to whom he will lose out of the Labor and the Greens candidates. The AEC conducted a traditional two-candidate count between the major party candidates, but has discontinued it because Labor is running third. However, it’s far from clear that it won’t prove to have had it right the first time after all the votes are in. There would not be much point in a fresh two-candidate count here as it is already clear who would win between the Greens and the LNP. It would be more instructive to determine how many preferences from the minor candidates are going to Labor and how many to the Greens. Most likely we will not be sure of the result here until the full preference distribution is conducted, which can’t happen until all the votes are in.
Griffith. Here too Labor is running third, but in this case it’s the Greens first and LNP second rather than vice-versa. Labor’s Terri Butler could theoretically make it over the line on preferences if she moved in to second, but the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences to the LNP are likely to put paid to that.
Ryan. My projection of a 52.6% Greens two-party vote over the LNP is based on an estimated 85-15 split of Labor preferences, which the ABC seemingly expects to be even wider, because it has it at 53.7-46.3.
Macnamara. Labor, the Greens and the Liberals are very close on the primary vote, and to the extent that the Liberals are slightly behind, I’m projecting them to make up most of the gap on late counting. So any three of them might end up being excluded before the final count. I would have thought Labor would win on either scenario where it clears this hurdle, since Liberal preferences favour them over the Greens fairly solidly when they direct their preferences that way. However, the ABC is projecting a lineball Labor-Greens result, so perhaps I’m wrong. If so, a fresh two-candidate count between Labor and the Greens would be instructive, but it would only apply if the Liberals did indeed go out before either of them. Certainly the Greens will win if it’s Labor that gets excluded.
Cowper. Independent Caz Heise landed well clear of Labor, and with Nationals member Pat Conaghan well short of a majority at 40.4%, my projection is that she will take it right up to him after preferences. We will need a two-candidate count to see exactly how accurate that is, which presumably the AEC will be forthcoming with fairly shortly – perhaps as soon as today.
Bradfield. A similar story here, with yet another independent, Nicolette Boele, outpolling Labor to finish a clear second, while Liberal member Paul Fletcher is on less of the primary vote than he would like. My preference estimates suggest Boele won’t quite get there, but here too we will need a new two-candidate count to see if I am right.
Now for a very quick look at the Senate before I collapse altogether. It seems to me there is a fairly strong possibility of what Labor would regard as a rather happy result where they and the Greens between them have half the numbers, and can get the extra votes needed to pass legislation from two Jacqui Lambie Network Senators or ACT independent David Pocock. Each of the six states seem to be looking at results where the first five seats have gone two Labor, two Coalition and one Greens, with the last seat up for grabs. To deal with the latter situation in turn:
New South Wales. Most likely a third seat for the Coalition in New South Wales, unless right-wing preferences lock in strongly behind One Nation.
Victoria. Probably the United Australia Party unless preferences flow strongly to Legalise Cannabis, a possibility I hope to be able to shed more light on after running an analysis on past ballot paper data.
Queensland. Probably Pauline Hanson but possibly Legalise Cannabis, who have been something of a surprise packet across all Senate races but particularly here at 6.7%. Neither Clive Palmer nor Campbell Newman are in contention.
Western Australia. The strongest possibility would seem to be a third seat for Labor, something it has never managed before in Western Australia and indeed hasn’t managed anywhere at a half-Senate election since 2010. However, I will also investigate the possibility that One Nation and Legalise Cannabis might be in contention instead.
South Australia. Very likely One Nation’s Jennifer Game, whose daughter Sarah Game won the party’s seat in the state Legislative Council in March, and has quickly emerged as something of a surprise packet. Out of contention is Nick Xenophon, whose “Group O” managed only 2.7%.
Tasmania. A second seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network, whose Tammy Terrell is on 8.1%, almost matching the 8.3% the party managed with Lambie at the top of the ticket in 2019.
Then there’s the Australian Capital Territory, where in yet another triumph for teal independence, David Pocock seems assured of unseating conservative Liberal Zed Seselja. The ABC projection says otherwise, but it seems to me that Seselja will assuredly be buried by the flow of preferences to Pocock from the Greens and Kim Rubenstein.
From the blog…. ‘There was suggestion on social media that SfM didn’t prepare a concession speech. If that’s true then it might explain the deluge of Liberal faithful truisms through his speech.”
I wouldn’t be suppressed.. Morrison was in full Pentecostal denial of truth mode
If all goes well for the alp, I can see them picking up some seats in qld at the next election.
I also think national seats will start having independents target them as well.
Scott: “On the world front
Trump and the Trump Australian version Morrison are gone.”
I very much fear that Trump is far from being gone.
It was good to see people , didn’t change their minds to vote the lib/nats out despite the corrupt Lib/nats propaganda media units throwing every thing they had to get Morrison and his cronies re-elected in government
14 seats in doubt according to the ABC and ALP ahead in 7 and Green in 1:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az&state=all
@meher baba
The problem with the Libs reaching out to the Teals is Murdoch.
Either the Teals will be openly hostile to his influence.
Or – what I think is more likely – Murdoch will have real difficulty trying to sell multiple parties to his audience. Murdoch’s base likes things simple. Vote for this “1” party. Every other party is “evil”.
Unless Murdoch can sweep the Teals into the Coalition I think he’ll have trouble trying to control them and their message.
meher baba says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:52 am
I very much fear that Trump is far from being gone.
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Surely he or his son to other close links will not be a power again , but again you could be right
Morrison at least acted with a degree of good grace by conceding early to ensure a smooth transition of Government.
Compared to the self pity of some of the losers (Poor Josh!! Poor Tim!!), Peter Dutton’s audition as Opposition Leader was at least passable, although his assembled family didn’t seem too comfortable!
meher baba
Trump is going away. Might take another 6 months, but he will be gone.
meher baba @ #75 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 7:38 am
m b, one of my take home messages last night was the strength of purpose on display by Albanese, and his intolerance for disorder in the house, his innate inclination to see unity not division as the way to succeed, and with the wheels and levers now at his disposal, and his past history, I think he will run a very steady ship.
BiltongCinematicU says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:55 am
Unless Murdoch can sweep the Teals into the Coalition I think he’ll have trouble trying to control them and their message.
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If you’d heard Zoe Daniel speak last night on the Goldstein result, you’d know that there’s zero chance of these independents wanting to merge into an existing major party.
@somethinglikethat
I am hopeful for that as well. True independence weakens Murdoch greatly. He primarily does well in FPTP situations.
Good morning everybody and my warmest congratulations to PM Anthony Albanese and the Labor party for their stunning Victory!
I am obviously happy because Scomo and his Coalition gang have been smashed, just as many of us, opinion polls, betting agencies, and even various zoo animals predicted. However, the importance of yesterday’s vote (plus the counting of the remaining votes) is greater than that. Yesterday was a truly Revolutionary day (or a truly Evolutionary day at the very least). Australia has turned strongly Progressive!! Australia has rejected Neoliberalism, Conservatism and Climate Change Denialism. All Progressive sides of politics advanced: the ALP, the Greens and the Teals. Moreover, our new PM is a strongly Progressive person (member of the so called “Labor left”). That’s a truly historical moment… and I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen next.
Still enjoying this self-burn from last night. Jane Hume is an idiot.
Benita Kolovos @benitakolovos
Liberal Senator Jane Hume tells Nine: “We thought there would be a bigger Dan Andrews effect in Vic and there hasn’t … We have had such negative feedback about those harsh lockdowns in Vic, and we thought that may play out in those outer suburban areas. Clearly, they haven’t.”
meher baba @ #97 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 7:47 am
I would add Dr Ryan.
And the bleating begins from Murdochia, with Dennis Shanahan declaring that Albanese’s was a victory by default.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/anthony-albanese-wins-but-its-a-victory-by-default-for-
__________________
Yeah, well, stuff ’em! Who cares? It’s all just white noise and Anna P, Daniel A and now Albo have shown it means bugger all in the final tally.
I see the attempts at undermining the new federal Labor government here have already begun. As I suspected would be the case from today. Disappointing, to say the least.
“And Labor should implement something that reasonably ok re climate change, although the Greens will surely do their darndest to make that difficult. I really hope that the Senate will provide another viable avenue for Labor to get legislation passed, but I fear that’s unlikely.”
Yeah something big and bold on climate, it would be out of character, but easy to defend, Australia voted for strong climate change action etc etc. They should have a brains trust knocking up something pretty impressive before the teals and greens get near it.
Trump or worse will be the next US President. Put a fork in the US it is done. Handmaid’s Tale looks tame compared to where the Supreme Court is taking them.
Did any of the captains picks get up?
Given the size of the Queensland cohort, Dutton must be a shoe in.
As we’ve seen from his past attempts to smile, he’s not capable of reinventing himself (or the Liberal party).
He’s also full stop unlikeable. Abbott was awful but you could understand why he appealed to some people. Turnbull was more disappointing than anything else. Scotty’s marketing schtick translated into some appeal.
Dutton is also everything the Teals have opposed.
The Liberals do not have the nous to rebuild themselves in the short term. (I’d like to predict their demise and replacement by a Teal centered party, but that would be a longer term prospect than I’d care to put my name to at present). I’m not sure they have the talent – or can attract it – to do so in the longer term.
Their only chance of survival is if Labor implodes – and so far, the indications from the last three years is that Labor is more aware now of their need to pick wise paths through minefields.
Counting just updated
Scomos moving van says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:45 am
Will there be a media enquiry?
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There’ll be a FICAC and a Robodebt RC….That thought will be disturbing the sleep of a few current and former LNP politicians for the next little while
@zoomster
One knock to the claim that Labor can manage minefields was the arrogant decision to parachute Keneally into her supposedly safe seat.
Factional play is still clearly prominent in the ALP. Unfortunately.
C@
Sorry, not seeing what you’re seeing. It would help, of course, if you named names, rather than doing drive by snark.
“Now for a very quick look at the Senate before I collapse altogether. It seems to me there is a fairly strong possibility of what Labor would regard as a rather happy result where they and the Greens between them have half the numbers, and can get the extra votes needed to pass legislation from two Jacqui Lambie Network Senators or ACT independent David Pocock.”…
Yes, I am hopeful that with a Senate looking like that, Albo and his ALP government will be able to implement a very solid Progressive agenda, that was rudely interrupted in 2013…..
Just thing about that: Nine years…. completely….. WASTED!!!
Another big lesson to learn.
Yep.
Kos Samaras
Toxic Dan? Wrong. The Victorian Liberals were again caught playing with their toys in the sand pit. Obsessing over their own pet hates whilst the house around them burnt down.
This was akin to a 2018 re-run.
They drove their bus into Labor strongholds. But lost theirs.
“If you’d heard Zoe Daniel speak last night on the Goldstein result, you’d know that there’s zero chance of these independents wanting to merge into an existing major party.”
That is the best outcome for Labor.
I don’t know how many of the teals are lnp diehards that felt the lnp abandoned them (and it did) but those that are have an opportunity to rebuild.the a new environmentally friendly LNP-lite around them. Much better for labor if they don’t. But if they do they can’t really accommodate the nationals so they’d need to beat them.
Biltong
So you’re expecting Labor to fail?
Does the AEC count today?
Morning all, hungover but in a good way.
Looking at the ABC figures this morning, there is a path for the new PM to get to 76 or 77 seats, Labor is now ahead in Gilmore, Bennelong, Sturt and Deakin, just behind in Menzies and Moore, Flynn too is far closer this morning than it was late last night.
It’s obvious to me, with Scott Morrison’s declaration that he is going to stick around (with the usual caveats that he may resign in 6 months or so but that’s not what I think), that his project to remake the Australian Liberal Party into a Southern Hemisphere version of the American Republican Party of the Christian Conservative ‘Workers’, will continue. In that project he will have The Nationals as firm and fast allies. Aided and abetted by the Sky After Dark Tucker Carlson wannabes. It will be ugly.
My hope is that the spell that the Pentecostals have cast over many voters will be broken and Scott Morrison and his kind will be cast into the wilderness and this project of the Pentecostals will die the natural death in Australia it deserves to because, we are not America, and yesterday’s election has proven that we never want to be.
The LNP can try and claim this and that, Labor faithful can be a little disappointed by the lack of a big win.
All sides can spin it as they please.
The fact of the matter is that the Australian electorate has moved dramatically to the progressive left.
With the wipe out of the moderates you can be assured the surviving LNP carcass will surely dissipate into irrelevance within a couple of cycles
WeWantPaul:
Yes AEC counts on Sunday including postal votes:
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2022/05-21a.htm
As much as I was hoping for it (and still do) Dutton actually winning is probably a good outcome.
It means his leadership ambitions will be likely realised and the Liberal party thus remains a hard right party with Pentecostal RWNJ & just nasty RWNJ factions.
It’ll be something that will remain appealing to the Murdoch / Fox News cohort.
Having got rid of the “weak left bleeding heart woke” moderates they’ll blame for losing I can see a further hardening. While the RWNJ base will be solid the Teal movement will organise & grow.
Dutton & Co. will lead a charge further to the right (if that’s possible) .
If the Teals do organise into a party what is left of any Moderate Liberals might even defect.
Albanese is the first Labor leader after Chifley to become PM with Cabinet experience i.e. after 73 years.
Remarkable!
I don’t know whether ALP will get Majority in HOR but Albanese knows how to deal with Cross bench.
@zoomster
I was not expecting the RGR knife-fight that happened back then to ever occur after Rudd’s massive 2007 win.
I desperately hope Labor succeeds. As a party that supports unions they are absolutely required in government to fend off attacks on worker’s rights.
However, the internal politics of the ALP still haunts me from back then. I’m an outsider so I don’t know anything, but the fear persists.
I need the ALP to succeed. I hope they do.
I gotta say. I had the best nights sleep in ages.
As Dan Andrews eloquently stated. Liberals from Victoria, but not for Victoria.
We will never forget how they treated us during our darkest days of the pandemic.
Goid riddance to bad rubbish
The Gilmore turn around is a miracle, Labor now almost 1400 ahead
From the SMH & Tanya
This looks like a 3 term Labor Government.
The Liberal Party has been gutted by a combination of internal division and progressive forces with popular policies. How can they recover? They can’t – not in the short term at least. The blood letting and blaming will be a sight to behold.
“BiltongCinematicU says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 8:06 am
@zoomster
One knock to the claim that Labor can manage minefields was the arrogant decision to parachute Keneally into her supposedly safe seat.
Factional play is still clearly prominent in the ALP. Unfortunately.”…
Keneally was just victim of the relentless campaign of the Liberals and their mates in the media against her. They clearly and openly demonstrated that they hated Keneally, Wong and Gallagher for being a solid wall in the Senate against the Coalition and their corrupt mates. The Coalition tried to prepare the attack with the Kitching brouhaha and then unleashed a campaign to prevent Kristina from successfully switching to the H. of Reps.. They could stop Kristina (although wait and see what she is going to do next within the Albo ALP Government!), but everybody else is still there and now holding the power of Government!… The seat of Fowler will return to Labor at the next federal election, make no mistake.
Victoria says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 8:08 am
Yep.
Kos Samaras
Toxic Dan? Wrong. The Victorian Liberals were again caught playing with their toys in the sand pit. Obsessing over their own pet hates whilst the house around them burnt down.
This was akin to a 2018 re-run.
They drove their bus into Labor strongholds. But lost theirs.
———
True. The Vic ALP will be trawling through some of these results closely though. The Libs were trounced in the inner/middle parts of Melbourne, but there were some really big swings against Labor in the outer burbs: Calwell and Scullin in the north and Latrobe in the east particularly. There’s no sign in these results that Andrews should be worried – though I wouldn’t be surprised if the State election is closer than expected – but the ALP might need to recalibrate where it campaigns and how it campaigns in November
+1 Catmomma. Can I add that John Howard should be condemned for publicly backing Trump.
Thanks William Bowe and BK
Victoria @ #137 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 8:14 am
Apparently Jane Hume was gobsmacked there wasn’t an anti-Dan sentiment reflected in the results.
Typical out of touch Liberal!
zoomster @ #124 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 8:07 am
Take off your school marm dress, zoomster, it’s unbecoming this early in the morning after an historic victory for Labor. If I must snap to attention and jump when you say ‘jump!’, then this is what I mean:
(short of the Albo Government falling to pieces, which prospect unfortunately cannot be entirely ruled out). by meher baba. Why cast nasty aspersions like that on Day 1? It’s entirely unnecessary and likely will never be the case.
Not to mention that I fully expect Lars von Trier to flick the switch to daily undermining of the Albanese government. Then there’s Firefox, for whom anything Labor does will never be enough. And I know nath has already started trying to undermine me. So, if you don’t think that that won’t continue I guess you’re entitled to your own opinion but it’s not one I share and it’s one which evidence will prove me right I imagine.
If there was a miracle win , it was last night
Labor/Albanese had majority of the corrupt media against and attacking them
Evan says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 8:10 am
Morning all, hungover but in a good way.
Looking at the ABC figures this morning, there is a path for the new PM to get to 76 or 77 seats, Labor is now ahead in Gilmore, Bennelong, Sturt and Deakin, just behind in Menzies and Moore, Flynn too is far closer this morning than it was late last night.
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Evan just one word of caution: Antony Green commented last night that many of the seats projected as Liberal wins (including those you mentioned) would go back to the ALP being ahead later in the night when he turned off the projections on the ABC computer. (I don’t get why the projections would be turned off but that’s what he said.) So some of those seats might still be likely Liberal wins after postals etc are accounted for. Hopefully that’s not the case and there have been some pre-poll drops, but to avoid disappointment don’t count them in the ALP column yet.
+1 Cronus, thanks for all the hard work William.
I am glad we got rid of the Corruption of Thieves and I am especially glad to see the end of Morrison.
But I fear we are heading for an extended period of unstable minority governments at a time when national and global economic, social and environmental stresses and challenges have never been greater. We have a trillion dollar debt, a declining future for our two major export earners, a weakened skills base, an ageing workforce, a simplified economy, the ongoing economic impacts of the pandemic, growing levels of corruption in business and in government, highly monopolized industries, increasing power of global corporates, disrupted supply chains, and a trade-exposed economy at a time when nations all over the world are becoming trade defensive. Did I mention that the vast majority of Australians do not want to pay more tax?
We have never before been as divided or as tribalised. Social media will, presumably, help multiply and harden those divisions further. Our political institutions are increasingly showing that they are not fit-for-purpose in a rapidly evolving social and economic world.
As elsewhere, the centre is being hollowed out in Australia. I assume that this means that it is unlikely that Australia will have a majority government again in the house over the next ten years or so.
Greens plus left indies and left others are around 19 of the primary vote%.
Nats+PHON+UA+right indies+shooters and fishers are in a similar order of magnitude.
So around two fifths of the vote is at the extremes of either right wing or left.
While both sets of extremes like to think themselves to be at the reasonable centre of their political worlds (and also as being the vanguard of the future world order), the statistical fact is that in both cases four out of five Australians voted for something else.
We have just seen what happens to a Liberal Government when they are dominated by the extreme right, the minority Nats, which dragged them off centre.
That is also going to be a term challenge for Labor. Implementing the 7 Demands and Saving the Planet and Halving the ADF, turning it into a Light Mobile Force, and getting rid of ANZUS will just as certainly lead Labor to a smashing defeat in the next election as buckling to the influence of the far right did for the Liberals in this election.
The left and right extremists were simply not held to account in the election coverage. Hanson said what she wanted. The Teals did not provide costed or budgeted policies. They often got cult celebrity treatment instead. Joyce just said what he liked and was never held to account for it. The Wombat Trail MSM gave him free rein. The Greens are going to ‘Save the Planet’ and ‘Save the Reef’. They won’t because they can’t. But no-one called them out on this. The UA was never, ever going to cap housing loans at 3%. And so on and so forth ad infinitum and ad nauseam.
One hopes that in the next election that calling out the populist crap of the extremes gets a bit more attention from the MSM and, indeed from the majors themselves. While everyone was doing
‘same same’ and generating a M.A.D for the majors, no-one much was doing ‘oddball lunatic statements and policy’ critiques of the odds and sods.
In the interim I look forward to the Albanese Labor Government implementing ICAC, giving voice to the Statement of Heart, implementing its excellent environmental policies, implementing the 55 recommendations of the Jenkins Report, implementing the policies that will get Australia to 47% by 2030 and implementing the various policies that will improve the lives of women. I mention in particular childcare and the appalling wages in the services industries.
Based on the experience of the Gillard Government, Labor, rather than the minor extremists, will face the full force of a ruthless and vengeful collection of right and far right MSM.
If you listen to the extremist populists there are no unpopular government decisions. There is no rationing of government services. There is no opportunity cost. There is only a pain-free nirvana for their supporters. Life was meant to be easy. Freedom and free everything. Print as much money as you like. Easy as.
Unfortunately this is not how things work in real life. This election sharpens the politically unresolved problem which will be this: who is going to collect the odium for the unpopular decisions that must be made over the next three years? In the minds of the extremists, not them!
I am more than a little curious to see how all this plays out.
I wish the good ship Australia and all who sail in her the very best.