Click here for full federal election results updated live.
Sunday updates
4pm. I gather that in seats where the AEC deemed it had picked the wrong candidates for the TCP count, it has picked new candidates and is throwing to those with the postal vote counts it is conducting today. Presumably it will do new TCP counts for the ordinary votes in these seats in due course, but for now the only TCP figures in these seats are for postals.
That at least is the situation in Bradfield, and I’ve rejigged everything for that seat so the page shows whatever results are available from the fresh TCP count rather than the redundant Liberal-versus-Labor one. The independent contender, Nicolette Boele, hasn’t done nearly as well on the postals (13.8%) as the pre-poll (24.6%) and polling booths (23.1%). She has however received nearly three-quarters of the preferences from the postals, which leave her short by around 52-48 if applied to the overall results. However, she will presumably lose further ground as more postals are added.
I’ll now to through all the other seats where I’d have thought this might be happening and will add commentary as I go.
End of election night
A lot more naturally remains to be said, but as was the case with the commentary I offered here last night, I’ll let my results system do the talking and mostly limit myself to explaining what it’s up to. First, I should note that my reading of the national two-party preferred – 52.8-47.2 in favour of Labor – is 1% stronger for Labor than the ABC’s, which is quite a lot closer to Nine’s projection, and I’m not going to pretend you should take my word for it over theirs. I’ll have a closer look at this tomorrow, but given the state of the primary votes and the large number of votes still outstanding, a lot of this is necessarily based on projection.
As you can see at the top of the entry page, I’m currently calling 71 seats for Labor, 46 for the Coalition, two for the Greens, three for independents and one for Katter’s Australian Party. However, this largely reflects the fact that the system is very cautious in making calls in most of the seats where independents and the Greens are looking formidable, for reasons that will be explained shortly.
Bennelong, Gilmore, Deakin, Menzies, Bass, Lyons, Sturt, Lingiari, Moore and — to stretch the elastic a little — Monash, Casey and Dickson are the old-fashioned kind of in doubt, with close races between Labor and Coalition candidates that could go either way on late counting. Projections here are based on comparison of how the votes in so far matched up with the equivalent votes last time, and an assumption that postals, absents and out-of-division pre-polls will record broadly similar swings (there are also a fair few pre-poll voting centres around the place that didn’t complete their counting last night, despite the head start they had for the first time in sorting their envelopes from 4pm).
However, it’s possible that postal votes in particular will behave quite a bit differently this time in swing terms due to a roughly 70% increase in the application rate. If that results in the postal voter pool being more demographically representative, these votes could be less conservative than usual. For the time being though, this is only a hypothesis.
Most of the seats that are listed as in doubt are ones where there is no historic data by which this result can readily be compared with the last, as is the case in the many seats where non-incumbent independents are in the race. My system applies a wider margin of error in these cases, meaning a fairly substantial lead is required before the 99% probability threshold is crossed and the seat is deemed to be called. For example, no human observer doubts that Allegra Spender has defeated Dave Sharma in Wentworth, but my system isn’t all the way there yet.
The AEC has pulled its two-candidate preferred counts in 15 seats where it deems it picked the wrong candidates, although it seems this hasn’t caused the results to disappear from my pages, which I believe is a happy accident. My two-party projections in these seats work off my estimates of how preferences will flow to the candidates deemed likely to finish first and second. There are a few here that warrant explanation or discussion:
Brisbane. While it is clear LNP member Trevor Evans will lose this seat, it is not clear to whom he will lose out of the Labor and the Greens candidates. The AEC conducted a traditional two-candidate count between the major party candidates, but has discontinued it because Labor is running third. However, it’s far from clear that it won’t prove to have had it right the first time after all the votes are in. There would not be much point in a fresh two-candidate count here as it is already clear who would win between the Greens and the LNP. It would be more instructive to determine how many preferences from the minor candidates are going to Labor and how many to the Greens. Most likely we will not be sure of the result here until the full preference distribution is conducted, which can’t happen until all the votes are in.
Griffith. Here too Labor is running third, but in this case it’s the Greens first and LNP second rather than vice-versa. Labor’s Terri Butler could theoretically make it over the line on preferences if she moved in to second, but the flow of One Nation and United Australia Party preferences to the LNP are likely to put paid to that.
Ryan. My projection of a 52.6% Greens two-party vote over the LNP is based on an estimated 85-15 split of Labor preferences, which the ABC seemingly expects to be even wider, because it has it at 53.7-46.3.
Macnamara. Labor, the Greens and the Liberals are very close on the primary vote, and to the extent that the Liberals are slightly behind, I’m projecting them to make up most of the gap on late counting. So any three of them might end up being excluded before the final count. I would have thought Labor would win on either scenario where it clears this hurdle, since Liberal preferences favour them over the Greens fairly solidly when they direct their preferences that way. However, the ABC is projecting a lineball Labor-Greens result, so perhaps I’m wrong. If so, a fresh two-candidate count between Labor and the Greens would be instructive, but it would only apply if the Liberals did indeed go out before either of them. Certainly the Greens will win if it’s Labor that gets excluded.
Cowper. Independent Caz Heise landed well clear of Labor, and with Nationals member Pat Conaghan well short of a majority at 40.4%, my projection is that she will take it right up to him after preferences. We will need a two-candidate count to see exactly how accurate that is, which presumably the AEC will be forthcoming with fairly shortly – perhaps as soon as today.
Bradfield. A similar story here, with yet another independent, Nicolette Boele, outpolling Labor to finish a clear second, while Liberal member Paul Fletcher is on less of the primary vote than he would like. My preference estimates suggest Boele won’t quite get there, but here too we will need a new two-candidate count to see if I am right.
Now for a very quick look at the Senate before I collapse altogether. It seems to me there is a fairly strong possibility of what Labor would regard as a rather happy result where they and the Greens between them have half the numbers, and can get the extra votes needed to pass legislation from two Jacqui Lambie Network Senators or ACT independent David Pocock. Each of the six states seem to be looking at results where the first five seats have gone two Labor, two Coalition and one Greens, with the last seat up for grabs. To deal with the latter situation in turn:
New South Wales. Most likely a third seat for the Coalition in New South Wales, unless right-wing preferences lock in strongly behind One Nation.
Victoria. Probably the United Australia Party unless preferences flow strongly to Legalise Cannabis, a possibility I hope to be able to shed more light on after running an analysis on past ballot paper data.
Queensland. Probably Pauline Hanson but possibly Legalise Cannabis, who have been something of a surprise packet across all Senate races but particularly here at 6.7%. Neither Clive Palmer nor Campbell Newman are in contention.
Western Australia. The strongest possibility would seem to be a third seat for Labor, something it has never managed before in Western Australia and indeed hasn’t managed anywhere at a half-Senate election since 2010. However, I will also investigate the possibility that One Nation and Legalise Cannabis might be in contention instead.
South Australia. Very likely One Nation’s Jennifer Game, whose daughter Sarah Game won the party’s seat in the state Legislative Council in March, and has quickly emerged as something of a surprise packet. Out of contention is Nick Xenophon, whose “Group O” managed only 2.7%.
Tasmania. A second seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network, whose Tammy Terrell is on 8.1%, almost matching the 8.3% the party managed with Lambie at the top of the ticket in 2019.
Then there’s the Australian Capital Territory, where in yet another triumph for teal independence, David Pocock seems assured of unseating conservative Liberal Zed Seselja. The ABC projection says otherwise, but it seems to me that Seselja will assuredly be buried by the flow of preferences to Pocock from the Greens and Kim Rubenstein.
What a pleasure it is to wake up with the weight of incompetence lifted from our weary backs and corruption strapping on it’s running shoes to flee.
Typically venal self-serving palaver from the departing PM, whose name escapes me.
Thank WIlliam and all who post here.
I’m off to walk by the beach for a coffee and savor an intense feeling of relief
When women win, Australia wins.
🙂 😀
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-now-the-fading-jewel-in-the-liberal-crown-20220519-p5amx5.html
It also amazes me that effectively none of the votes that the Coalition lost yesterday have gone to Labor. I visited a few polling booths in southern Tasmania yesterday, and the growing toxicity of both major parties was represented visually by the signage outside. Labor did have its party name up in large letters and had some big, old-style pictures of its leader and also of its local candidates. It also had a lot of bunting with attack ads featuring pictures of ScoMo, but I have to say it wasn’t well done and therefore wasn’t that visible.
The Libs had no photos of ScoMo whatsoever, very few posters for their candidates and not much material on which the word “Liberal” was written. Instead, almost all of their material featured Albo looking menacing with a picture of Nick McKim looking equally menacing behind him. (Presumably they didn’t think that most Tasmanians would recognise Adam Bandt: indeed, even the photo of McKim was stamped with a large “The Greens” logo.
Other parties didn’t seem to share the Libs’ problem with their leader. The Jacqui Lambie Network had lots of pictures of Jacqui, and I saw a rather disarming lifesize cardboard cut-out image of Pauline Hanson at one booth.
To me, this all seemed to suggest that the Libs had polling that suggested that their brand and, in particular, their leader was toxic. But also that Labor and Albo were not much more popular. I can’t recall an election like this in my lifetime: my sense in 2013 was that voters were far from enthused by Abbott, but a large number of them still switched their first preference vote to his party.
Albo and Labor need to take up government with a great deal of humility and continue to work hard to gain the trust of the electors. It has been done in the past by oppositions which have narrowly won government more through the failure of their predecessors than through their own merits: the Palaszczuk government in Queensland and the Carr government in NSW are good examples. On the other hand, Tony Abbott in 2013 is an example of a leader who won by default and immediately started acting as if he was as entrenched in power as a Hawke or a Howard, and quickly found himself in deep trouble.
I think Albo is experienced enough to be aware of these dangers, but he will be surrounded by jubilant people who will demand rapid change: including, I fear, the Greens. Keeping the budget under control is going to be the first big challenge (as it would have been ScoMo’s if he had won, given that his TV giveaway was almost as large as Labor’s).
slackboy72 says:
“Labor and the Greens got smashed in QLD in 2019 after Bob Brown rolled into town and told them what to do.”
A major rewrite of history there.
In Queensland in 2019, the Greens scored positive swings of 3.1% in the Senate and 1.5% in the Reps.
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-QLD.htm
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm
Scomos moving van @ #49 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 7:14 am
And Home to Bilo, the Indue Card and probably the NBN can be at least started without legislation, so they can probably be done quite quickly. Federal ICAC likely to slide through without much contention and action on climate change can start incrementally straight away.
The list of high profile ‘always-conservative’ seats to have fallen will reshape our electoral map forever. Furthermore, political parties will no longer be able to take seats and constituents for granted. Another huge political win for Australians nationwide.
There’s a long way to go with counting. WB’s projections are not especially encouraging for Labor’s prospects of achieving majority Government. They may fall agonisingly short, and live to rue the foolish (with full benefit of hindsight) decision to run Kristina Kenneally in Fowler.
One of the doubtfuls I do expect Labor to hold on to is Lingiari. The 2 outstanding polling places are the prisons, which have been separately identified this time (it might have been possible to identify which mobile teams covered the prisons previously, but I’m not aware of how to do that). Prison populations in the NT are 90% indigenous, and I would expect these extra votes (however many there may be) to flow strongly to Labor.
It looks like the Greens are going to win at least 4 seats, possibly even 5 or 6. Whichever way you cut it, they had a spectacularly successful night, and even if Labor wins a very narrow majority, a pragmatic accommodation between Labor and Greens is going to be essential, to ensure future progressive governments can be elected. This is the breakthrough election for the Greens.
I should probably impose a self-ban on checking counting updates until Friday 5pm!
leftieBrawler: “Albo’s inspiring pitch to make us a renewable super power brought me back to the excitable Rex Connor and his great visions for our resources sector during the Whitlam days. Rex would be proud!.”
Someone with Rex Connor’s propriety around due process is just what the Albo government needs. Let’s throw in another senior Cabinet minister who forms a relationship with one of his advisors and moons around with her in public in a cringeworthy fashion.
You know it makes sense.
This should all quell the tedious anti green rhetoric, for a time.
William- thanks so much for PB and the awesome results page last night. And thanks to all Bludgers who shared the experience of this amazing, historic election. The occasions when the Federal ALP wins government from opposition are rare indeed. Hopefully the next one is a long time away, because the ALP will have a long term in government. So it’s great to savour it.
And for politics and election watchers, with the advent of the Teals, the success of the Greens and the banishment of the Liberals from their traditional wealthy old money seats, this election seems to be one that has changed the whole paradigm. You’d think minority Federal government is likely to become much more common in future. It’ll be amazing to see what happens next.
The view from the US (progressive wing)
ajm:
“Home to Bilo, the Indue Card and probably the NBN can be at least started without legislation, so they can probably be done quite quickly.”
Memories of the two-man Whitlam-Barnard interim cabinet immediately releasing the young Australians imprisoned by the Liberals for resisting conscription.
We might finally get a government that actually does something substantial in a practical sense in tackling the disadvantages of first nations people.
Finally no need to feel embarrassed at being Australian anymore when international media reports on our politics.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/20/australia-election-morrison-albanese/
Addie @ #44 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 7:08 am
I don’t think they understand that Australians want centrist governments, not extremist right wing politics that work in the USAs non-compulsory voting environment. You aren’t going to win those growing middle group of swinging voters by making your base more extreme and energised.
Meher Baba
Albo and Labor need to take up government with a great deal of humility and continue to work hard to gain the trust of the electors.
———-
My impression is that if there were ever a Federal Labor leader who is blessed with that capacity for humility and working with diverse interests it’s Albo. Of course we should not get ahead of ourselves, but to me it feels a bit like the position with Howard. He came across as a pretty pedestrian politician and leader but he grew into the role and the times apparently suited him. The difference being that I think Howard was a very bad PM for Australia’s long term future, while Albo has the potential to be a good one.
The view from France:
‘France’s outgoing foreign affairs minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, has undiplomatically welcomed the election defeat of Australia’s conservative government …
‘ He said: “I can’t stop myself from saying that the defeat of Morrison suits me very well.”
‘Le Drian added that Morrison’s actions over the submarine deal showed “brutality and cynicism, and I would even be tempted to say of unequivocal incompetence”.’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/21/frances-outgoing-foreign-minister-welcomes-defeat-of-scott-morrison
The nightmare for the Libs, the six new seats they have lost so far to Independents, plus retained Indi, Warringah, and Mayo, gives Nine seats that can be denied to Libs with minimal effort by Labor.
Libs have to fight the next several elections on two fronts, likely they will try claw back one or two Independent seats each election.
It’s a glorious day here in Melbourne. It’s overcast and the sun won’t be shining till mid-morning, but we’re Frydenberg and Wilson free.
“I don’t think they understand that Australians want centrist governments, not extremist right wing politics that work in the USAs non-compulsory voting environment. You aren’t going to win those growing middle group of swinging voters by making your base more extreme and energised.”
Australians are leaving a decade of extremist far right wing govt. SKY / Rupert / Stokes would be sad it is over for the moment but expecting the return in 18 – 36 months.
Labor need to legitimize the Teals and present them as a valid long-term option to the LNP. If Labor sideline them the worst outcome is the electorate feeling they need to reelect the LNP for “stability”.
As much as Labor needs wins itself it is also in its best interest to give wins to the Teals. I say this as a long-time Labor voter: we have a unique opportunity to split the LNP for perhaps a decade or more.
Congrats to Labor, The Teals and a grudging nod of the head to the greens.
Revel in victory today but prepare for the coming shit storm.
It aint going to be pretty.
The Victorian experience suggests that the Liberals will have little chance of rebuilding and will lose further seats in the years to come – indeed, if some Libs pull the plug, sooner rather than later (I’d expect at least a couple of by elections in the next year).
The Libs have fewer moderates than ever – if they weren’t able to get themselves heard before, they won’t suddenly find the RWNJs (defined by their inability to accept any views but their own) listening now.
I’ll be interested to see what happens to the cross bench. If Labor gets majority in its own right – either now or after a by election or two – they’ll struggle for relevance.
The cult of personality seems to have driven many of their campaigns. Whether they can maintain that when the level of attention tapers off and we get back to the sober business of governing remains to be seen.
On the Liberal side, it looks like their Opposition lineup is going to consist of Dutton as lower house leader, Birmingham as leader in the Senate, and otherwise a bunch of non-entities.
Littleproud should now surely take over as leader of the Nats: Joyce was more embarrassing than ever last night. Indeed, I reckon Littleproud would make a better Opposition leader than Dutton: and, given the LNP set up in Queensland, it’s theoretically possible, although he’d have to deal with the fact that it would most likely be seen as a betrayal by the voters in Littleproud’s own electorate, who hate the Libs almost more than they hate Labor.
Anyway, the Libs are in a right mess and no denying. If Dutton drops the ball, I guess they’ll try to find a way to get Josh back into Parliament. I’ve always seen the guy as a rank opportunist who’d do anything to get on – and I have met Liberal insiders who feel exactly the same way – but he has somehow found himself being seen to stand for the sort of policy positions that the Liberals need to embrace in order to have any hope of returning to power (short of the Albo Government falling to pieces, which prospect unfortunately cannot be entirely ruled out).
Labor did well in W.A , getting rid of Wyatt and Goodenough,
Morning all
Much appreciation William for your incisive work!
Alright. I’m here for my “called it’s”.
And to own up to some misses.
Early in the count, I pointed out the deves gambit would lead to swings to the coalition in early booths and massive swings away in bigger booths. So I called “don’t panic” early on.
I also called that the 2PP would be lower than newspoll/BT but that by the end of the night, no one would care about 2PP national count, ever again. I called that the result would be worse for the coalition than 46.5 would imply.
I did get the timing of all of AG’s calls wrong. Slightly wrong for when he ruled out lib majority Gov and when he ruled out lib minority. And very wrong for when he declared labor majority (ie still not happened).
I predicted a good night for the greens and teals, better than the mrp. But not this good
Outsider, with so many independents being short one or two seats wont matter.
meher baba
Barnaby Joyce is barely coherent. An utter embarrassment.
Confessions says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:31 am
“Finally no need to feel embarrassed at being Australian anymore when international media reports on our politics.
Australia delivered a stinging defeat to the country’s ruling conservative coalition on Saturday in what amounted to a personal rebuke of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s abrasive brand of leadership.”
Ever since Abbott was elected it has been embarrassing to be an Australian overseas. I’m not one to defend the indefensible and would regularly cringe as we were laughed at. We can hold our heads aloft once more with genuine pride that finally, we have progressed.
…quick look at the State results, and the Liberal party is going to be dominated by Queenslanders. I don’t think that bodes well for rebuilding…
Good morning bludgers. My head hurts. But my heart sings.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers – and what a morning it is!!!!
This win for Anthony Albanese is the most transformative election you can imagine, writes Laura Tingle who opines that the end of the Morrison Government in an election which — while it might not have resulted in a landslide for the Opposition — has seen the conservative party decimated and shattered.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/election-2022-anthony-albanese-wins-transformative-election/101087834
Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison have emptied the Liberals’ broad church, writes Katherine Murphy who says it’s moderate wing has been decimated.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/tony-abbott-and-scott-morrison-have-emptied-the-liberals-broad-church
The quiet Australians spoke and they said ‘enough’, writes Peter Hartcher who says Anthony Albanese bet everything on a Scott Morrison failure and his bet has paid off handsomely. An excellent assessment here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-quiet-australians-spoke-and-they-said-enough-20220521-p5anda.html
David Crowe says that the Coalition gambled on making Morrison the whole campaign – and lost.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaders-worst-on-show-in-raw-personal-contest-20220519-p5amqi.html
Mark Kenny says, “The Miracle Man has turned out to be no more than a political huckster. Having led his party down a few useless side-alleys, and studiously done nothing to address the well-known concerns of his party’s most loyal blue-ribbon base, Morrison has now led it over a cliff.”. Ouch!!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7747257/miracle-man-was-no-more-than-political-huckster/?cs=14329
Jacqui Maley reckons questions of character dominated the campaign as a shape-shifting PM tried on new personae.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/questions-of-character-dominated-campaign-as-shape-shifting-pm-tried-on-new-personae-20220520-p5an5y.html
And the bleating begins from Murdochia, with Dennis Shanahan declaring that Albanese’s was a victory by default.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/anthony-albanese-wins-but-its-a-victory-by-default-for-labor/news-story/75b7d87c9b61157a16dc6d772c306deb
Michael reports on Liberals blaming Morrison for the “Tealbath”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-like-our-member-not-his-boss-liberals-blame-morrison-for-inner-city-carnage-20220519-p5ampr.html
Josh Gordon describes Victoria as now now the fading jewel in the Liberal crown.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-now-the-fading-jewel-in-the-liberal-crown-20220519-p5amx5.html
For the party, the devastating election result has generated a profound crisis, explains the AFR’s Andrew Clark.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-liberals-post-election-endgame-20220521-p5and9
What now for the Liberal Party? A radical shift and a lot of soul-searching, says the ANU’s Marija Taflaga.
https://theconversation.com/what-now-for-the-liberal-party-a-radical-shift-and-a-lot-of-soul-searching-183362
Jon Faine believes Morrison’s legacy will be a shadow of his predecessors’. He concludes his trip through history with, “Morrison wasted his time as prime minister. The “miracle” win in 2019 left him unprepared, with little agenda, and just papered over the fault-lines and internal feuds within conservative politics. Whatever the result of the 2022 election, time in power ought not be squandered as it was in the 46th parliament.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-s-legacy-will-be-a-shadow-of-his-predecessors-20220520-p5an2d.html
Ian Warden explains why he is so thankful for Australia having compulsory voting.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7746492/thank-god-for-compulsory-voting/?cs=9676
Sarah Martin writes that Clive Palmer’s mammoth campaign spend of close to $100m has failed to deliver his party results, with its primary vote failing to reach 5% across the country.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/clive-palmers-massive-advertising-spend-fails-to-translate-into-electoral-success
Senate may have a progressive majority as Greens and David Pocock make election gains, explains Ben Raue.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/senate-may-have-a-progressive-majority-as-greens-and-david-pocock-make-election-gains
Alexandra Smith thinks the federal results offer little heart for major parties facing next NSW election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-results-offer-little-heart-for-major-parties-facing-next-nsw-election-20220519-p5amx4.html
The class of 2022 will be the voters of 2025 – and they’ll have plenty of reasons to cast their ballots, says teacher and author, Daisy Turnbull.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-class-of-2022-will-be-the-voters-of-2025-and-they-ll-have-plenty-of-reasons-to-cast-their-ballots-20220519-p5amt4.html
Nick Bonyhady tells us how Zali Steggal won Warringha and Simon Birmingham has said there were “clear mistakes” and “process breakdowns” in the pre-selection of Liberal candidate Deves.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/steggall-on-track-to-hold-warringah-overcoming-deves-challenge-20220519-p5ampv.html
Matthew Knott and Natassia Chrysanthos say that Kristina Keneally’s political career is in ruins after her shock Fowler loss. Labor. IMHO, will not be damaged by her loss, and that of Terri Butler. Their talent pool is plenty big enough.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kristina-keneally-s-political-career-in-ruins-after-shock-fowler-loss-20220519-p5ampu.html
France’s outgoing foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, has taken a swipe at Scott Morrison just hours after the Australian prime minister conceded defeat, saying the Coalition’s election loss “suits me fine”. The veteran politician, who is leaving his post after five years, showed that nerves are still raw between the two administrations following the controversial termination of a $90 billion submarine contract, writes Rob Harris.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-only-way-is-up-for-french-relations-after-le-drian-takes-final-swipe-at-morrison-20220522-p5andy.html
Craig McLachlan’s defamation retreat won’t stop other men suing to silence women, posits Jessica Lake.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/mclachlan-s-defamation-retreat-won-t-stop-other-men-suing-to-silence-women-20220520-p5an7r.html
Ben Marlow explains why he believes Britain is heading for economic oblivion.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/britain-is-heading-for-economic-oblivion-20220519-p5amkn.html
Trump isn’t out there with a gun, but he’s enabled this war against black people, argues Cornel West.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/21/trump-black-white-supremacy-buffalo-joe-biden
Cartoon Corner
Matt Davidson
Reg Lynch
John Shakespeare
Matt Golding
Mark David
Peter Broelman
From the US
We need to legislate a 50% mineral tax on all resource sector Enterprises like the Northern Europeans do successfully. Why should the daughter of a man own the contents of vast holes in the ground simply because he once hammered in some string lines decades ago. Use the revenue to fund universal dental, self sufficient green energy networks, an Israeli style surface to air irondome system to guard against the PRC- endless possibilities
Looks like Abetz has missed out in Tas.
Pocock looking more likely in the ACT.
Uncertain for Hanson in Qld.
The NSW lib/nats state government should be getting worried , they were nearly clones of the federal lib/nats
Scott: Goodenough ahead in Moore by 400 votes..
somethinglikethat says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:35 am
“It’s a glorious day here in Melbourne. It’s overcast and the sun won’t be shining till mid-morning, but we’re Frydenberg and Wilson free.”
So good I’m going out to enjoy the chill and grab a coffee!
Oliver Sutton @ #68 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 7:32 am
“brutality and cynicism, and I would even be tempted to say of unequivocal incompetence”.’
* brutality
* cynicism
* unequivocal incompetence
I just like seeing the words and rubbing their faces in it.
“The cult of personality seems to have driven many of their campaigns. Whether they can maintain that when the level of attention tapers off and we get back to the sober business of governing remains to be seen.”
The teals are pretty easy to wedge, strong action on climate change isn’t all that compatible with traditional trickle down economics.
You take the anti-corruption pillar away by implementing it fast.
Then they have the women pillar, which is fantastic, but it is an LNP problem, which ideally the LNP don’t fix.
The Greens Member-Elect for Ryan Libby Watson-Brown is the equal of Michael Berkman, Amy McMahon and Jono Sri in warmth with voters, devotion to work, and steely resolve against powerful foes. So are the Greens candidates who have a good chance of winning the seats of Brisbane and Griffith. They all embody the maxim “be kind to people, be ruthless with systems.”
Will there be a media enquiry?
One the world front
Trump and the Trump Australian version Morrison are gone
Only Borris Johnson to go
zoomster @ #82 Sunday, May 22nd, 2022 – 7:41 am
I would have bet on the road back to govt for Labor would be through Qld but I didn’t bet on the ‘fuck-off-Scummo’ vote in WA getting it done. It will be interesting to watch QLD in the wash up and the lay of the land for next election.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:43 am
Scott: Goodenough ahead in Moore by 400 votes..
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ok thanks , didn’t know that , heard earlier that Labor won it
zoomster: “The Victorian experience suggests that the Liberals will have little chance of rebuilding and will lose further seats in the years to come – indeed, if some Libs pull the plug, sooner rather than later (I’d expect at least a couple of by elections in the next year).
The Libs have fewer moderates than ever – if they weren’t able to get themselves heard before, they won’t suddenly find the RWNJs (defined by their inability to accept any views but their own) listening now.
I’ll be interested to see what happens to the cross bench. If Labor gets majority in its own right – either now or after a by election or two – they’ll struggle for relevance.
The cult of personality seems to have driven many of their campaigns. Whether they can maintain that when the level of attention tapers off and we get back to the sober business of governing remains to be seen.”
Good analysis. As I have posted before, I think that Spender can potentially make a strong impact in Parliament. Perhaps Chaney as well (if she makes it, which seems far from certain). Both of these candidates appear to be genuine economic conservatives, who- given the paucity of talent left on the Coalition side – will be in a position to make some strong critiques of Labor’s policies.
The rest have an air of being Labor-lite or Greens-lite. They’ll presumably bleat on a bit about Labor not doing enough about climate change and Labor’s approach to FICAC not being as good as what they would have done. But so will the Greens, and they’ve been better at this for longer.
If the Libs had any sense, they would start trying to build bridges towards the Teals. They’re certainly going to have to do something urgent, as the right-wing rump of the party is a pretty mediocre bunch of politicians and won’t make it on its own: both on policy grounds and also through an inability to get its message across effectively.
Penny Wong’s role in the new Government is going to be critical, not just in her Ministerial role. She will need to manage co-operation between Labor and the Greens in the Senate, and that role might need to include liaison with the very large Green and cross bench presence in the House, especially of Labor ends up short of 76 seats (I do think minority Government is now the more likely scenario).
Thanks to everyone, the bludgers for their insights, the foot soldiers, BK, and Mr Bowe.
I’ve fired off an email to the ABC. Leigh Sales should be under review, not least for simply being unbelievably and unforgivably rude to Tanya Plibersek, whose graciousness showed exactly why they had won, and left Sales looking petty and partisan.
WWP: “You take the anti-corruption pillar away by implementing it fast.”
Yep, and you run with something very like what they propose. That’s surely a no-brainer, although Albo might face some internal opposition to such an approach.
And Labor should implement something that reasonably ok re climate change, although the Greens will surely do their darndest to make that difficult. I really hope that the Senate will provide another viable avenue for Labor to get legislation passed, but I fear that’s unlikely.