YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

Comments Page 13 of 20
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  1. Every election we get the usual crowd of drop ins. The majority of them are fine. Some are excellent value. But some do rather pontificate and expect that their Holy Writ to be swallowed. Then they get called out.

    They seem genuinely stunned that observers would actually notice, for example, that Jordan Steele-John, Greens Spokesperson for Disarmament, made a statement that anyone who had national security concerns about the China-Solomons Pact is a ‘racist’. How is THAT for a mature policy discussion?

    They seem surprised that another Greens policy newby, halving the ADF and turning it into a Light Mobile Force, is worth noticing, let alone commenting on.

    Then there are the various Greens impossible election promises. Stopping extinction by 2030 ($24 billion) NOT POSSIBLE. Saving the Reef. NOT POSSIBLE. But here’s the thing. We are supposed to swallow these kiddy fooling populist mantras and to STFU.

    These three points are all new points for this election, BTW.

    Then they whine and whinge and try to restrict the agenda to their favourite agendas and their favourite lines and to STFU. It is so boring that they carry on like this. Quite rude and quite arrogant as well. They have zero self awareness about how their carry on affects others.

  2. “Bluey has moved the Moet from the cellar to the fridge.”

    Good move Bluey. The King dusted off a Jeroboam of champagne this afternoon.

  4. Work to Rule and Rocket Rocket

    The last 2 years have confirmed that Morrison’s mishandling of the bushfires was no fluke.

    While I wish the pandemic never existed, in Morrison’s position it should have been a golden gift of re-election.

    His current struggles are because, as ALP spokespeople have reminded us, we now know Scott Morrison too well.

  5. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff has failed in a bid to recoup $4.5m to cover legal costs he incurred in legal action against former parliamentary speaker Peter Slipper.

    James Ashby in 2012 sued the commonwealth and Mr Slipper – whom he had worked for as a media advisor in 2011 and 2012 – alleging sexual harassment and misuse of parliamentary entitlements by Mr Slipper.

    But before trial, Mr Ashby reached a settlement with the commonwealth and dropped the case.

    Six years later, Mr Ashby applied to the Finance Minister for an act of grace payment of $4.537m to cover the legal costs of the case but was refused.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/court-rules-on-one-nation-staffer-james-ashbys-45m-appeal/news-story/7a3363bf36b50f65d537b2c1c5252fce

  6. Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 4:09 pm
    “I would LOVE to see Sturt go to Labor. Stevens is such a lame LNP non-entity. I think they are nervous – there are a massive number of corflutes with his generic mug on them all over the electorate.

    Unfortunately the large local Italian community seems to be fairly rusted-on and pro-Liberal, and will likely drag them over the line again.”

    Yet Albo has an Italian ancestry…

  7. ‘Bird of paradox says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 4:15 pm

    “Bluey” needs to lurk more. 26 times in one post? Really?’
    ———————————-
    I will raise it with him on your behalf. The outcome is fairly unpredictable.

  11. This will be a tough environment for Labor to govern (or anyone for that matter). No one really knows what will happen from here….but many scenarios seem like ending in recession.

    Its been ages since our last recession. Right?

  12. Trentsays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 4:06 pm

    How does the YouGov MRP polling, which applies results to seats using demographics rather than specific responses, account for factors such as whether or not the seat actually has a “teal” independent?

    Trent, the model is relying on the same combination of demographic factors to repeat the same voting intention values from the national sample to the local electorate.

    For example, let’s say the following demographic unit (combination) produced the following voting intention values in the national survey:

    Age: 35-55
    Sex: Male
    Education: Degree qualified
    Employment: Professional
    Dwelling tenure: Owns house
    Income: $2,500+ per week

    Voting intention:
    LNP: 40%
    IND: 60%

    Now, let’s say that this demographic made up 5% of the Kooyong electorate. Then the model would would award a 3% vote for the IND in Kooyong (60% of 5 = 3). This would be done for every demographic unit of the survey and all results summed to produce a vote estimate for the IND in Kooyong.

    An issue for IND candidates though with this approach is that nationally, many people of the above demographic unit would not be considering voting IND because they would not have a local Teal IND in their electorate. So I suspect the pollsters here would be applying some sort of reweighting factor to account for this.

  14. Coupla HTV cards through my letterbox, from Labor and Liberal (in Perth): both are about as far from a donkey vote as it’s possible to get. Apparently I have ELEVEN candidates to wade through? Bring on OPV.

    Labor: Green, AJP, Lib, Aus Christians, Great Australia Party, WA Party, Federation, LDP, UAP, One Nation.

    Lib: AC, WAP, LDP, Federation, AJP, Labor, ON, GAP, Green, UAP.

    Libs also have a senate HTV: Lib, AC, WAP, LDP, Federation, Democrats. (They’re still around?)

    That’s a lot of RWNJ candidates. Seven more-or-less equally repellent creatures, none of whom will get anywhere near the top two. I’ll probably end up donkey voting after #4. (Gulp… that means putting One Nation in the top half of my list. Oh well.)

  15. It’s been another difficult day for the government, battling bad polling, infighting, and gaffes from key MPs.

    Here are a few things that should worry the government today. First, with the number of days left in the campaign now down to single digits, a YouGov poll released last night has Labor on track to win 80 seats. “The election is in the hands of the Australian people. It’s not in the hands of pollsters or modellers,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said today.

    But one of Morrison’s final chances to reverse that trend — the third leaders debate last night — passed by without race-shifting incident.

    Then, in the morning, a typically eye-opening Niki Savva hit revealed the campaign for Katherine Deves — the alienating, train-wreck candidate for Warringah, tainted by her transphobic comments — was being run out of the Prime Minister’s Office.

    It confirms suspicions that Deves exists as a kind of culture war dogwhistle to socially conservative voters in Labor’s suburban Red Wall. But that strategy, along with growing momentum around teal independents, has coalesced into an existential threat for Liberal moderates, worried about their own future in a party that could irreversibly shift to the right no matter who forms government next week.

    Today, NSW Treasurer Matt Kean, the wettest of Liberal wets, warned that the teal wave could purge the party of moderates and drag it towards crazy land, currently inhabited by the US Republican Party. Tony Abbott, meanwhile, urged Warringah Liberals fleeing the sinking ship to fight in other seats to stay and back Deves.

    The anti-trans stuff resurfaced today when Morrison, alongside Bass MP Bridget Archer, was announcing a $55 million mental health partnership with the Tasmanian government. An emotional Archer spoke with rare honesty about her own struggles with mental health issues. But she then faced a series of questions about the struggles of transgender people, in light of Deves’ comments.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/12/backbenchers-give-morrison-more-to-worry-about-in-key-marginals/

  17. As The Australian Financial Review’s Phil Coorey pointed out after the latest Ipsos poll, Morrison’s numbers among female voters are dire and not shifting.

    Labor’s primary vote lead among women is eight, compared with five among men. His net disapproval is 23 among women and 16 among men. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is seven among women and he has led among women throughout the campaign. Men have tilted Albanese’s way only in the latest poll, 41-38.

    When did the collapse in female support for Morrison happen? Roy Morgan polling provides some clues. It tracks male and female two-party-preferred outcomes. Both male and female support for Labor pulled away dramatically from support for the Coalition in 2021 — but at different dates. Male support suddenly shifted in November-December, and began a steep trajectory of rising support for the ALP.

    That coincides with the period when the government’s failure to secure rapid antigen tests, and the inability of people to find any, was dominating the news.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/12/female-voters-queue-to-belt-scott-morrison/

  21. “As The Australian Financial Review’s Phil Coorey pointed out after the latest Ipsos poll, Morrison’s numbers among female voters are dire and not shifting.”

    If Phil can see it it is glaringly obvious, and the LNP head office have approved the message.

  22. The thing is that the reverses hitting at present (Inflation, Interest rates, ASX, AUD, house prices, flat to recessionary wages growth et al) are appearing on the watch of this government which has so poorly managed a functioning economy giving advantage to its society.

    Simply the foundations just do not exist.

    This is what Labor is inheriting.

    As it did in 1972, 1983 and 2007.

    The public is seeing the result on the watch of this government – so, fortunately, not into a Labor watch.

    There is much work to be done, across society.

    Including mitigating against the cost of the Pandemic – a cost born across society.

    It is interesting that Abbott presented that it was nothing that the Rudd Government did which saved Australia from the worst of the GFC fallout – it was China which saved Australia.

    Now we have alienated China, our largest trading partner.

    I do know that by Xmas 2007, Rudd and his newly elected government were work shopping a response to a significant financial markets disruption, calling on external expertise to inform and assist.

    Along with Treasury and the RBA

  23. The Revisionist @ #487 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:54 pm

    Morrison’s faction is the smallest faction from what I’ve read.

    Not according to the Sydney Morning Herald…
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-s-who-in-the-liberals-left-right-and-centre-factions-20210303-p577gv.html

    According to their information, there are (or at least, were in 2021) 22 Moderates, 29 National Rights, and 32 in Morrison’s faction, with 8 unaligned.

    Mexicanbeemer @ #512 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:21 pm

    The problem with this analysis is that the Greens are taking more votes from the ALP than the Liberals. We see this in Kooyong where the ALP used to poll in the 30s but now the ALP/Green combined vote is in the 30s so there has only been a small growth in the left vote.

    So you’re saying that the proportions in one of the Liberals’ most important seats disproves actual data about trends in specific age groups across the country?

    I don’t follow your logic.

    It’s also faulty on the numbers – you’re only counting Labor+Greens, you need to count anyone else that also falls within the “Left” at the same time. In 2019, that includes Oliver Yates. You also need to include Angelina Zubac, in 2016 and 2019. By those numbers, the Left have been over 40% for the last couple of elections.

  24. Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 4:05 pm
    carson63000, yep, it’s like stepping into an asylum where the same 4-5 inmates have been having the exact same argument since 1982.

    I tend to drop in around state and federal elections and it’s incredible the amount of repetition of this nonsense.

    These people (some of whom also make worthwhile contributions) don’t seem to realise how irritating and rude it is.
    _______________________
    The site is excellent and William’s analysis is on a par with 538 in the States including BludgerTrack .

    Don’t let a few of the usual suspects who stink out the joint (and should have been moved on years ago) discourage you. No need to name names – everybody knows who they are.

    There’s clearly a realignment going on in Australian politics which will be very interesting and will take us far beyond same old.

  25. Bludging @ #513 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:21 pm

    1. Labor do not consider themselves to be “superior” to anyone. This claim is completely false.

    2. The official Labor approach to the Greens is to ignore them entirely. This works. There is barely one official sentence spoken by Labor about the Greens per election cycle.

    3. Albo’s sentence this cycle was to affirm very succinctly that Labor would not deal with the Greens. Period.

    This is absolutely the correct approach to public campaigning by Labor.

    The only thing that distinguishes the Greens from the coalition is their declared position on Supply. The Greens have promised not to use their Senate numbers to block Supply. If it were not for this promise, Labor would have no reason to pref the Greens in the Senate. Considering that the Greens usually require Labor support to win seats in the Senate, this is no small thing. The Greens owe their privileges to Labor’s unconditional help.

    1. Do you just read half of a sentence and then reply without checking? I said they consider their party to be the superior party. Not like individuals being “superior” in the stupid way some people think, but in terms of ideology and policy. All politicians in parties must by definition think their party’s policies and ideology are superior to those of other parties, otherwise they’d be in the other party.

    2. If you say so.

    3. That’s not actually what he said. He said he wouldn’t enter into a deal. That’s not the same thing as dealing with them.

    And apparently you don’t understand how the system works, since you seem to think that supply is given in the Senate. It’s given in the House. But sure, keep making up nonsense.

  26. G’day all, just back from helping out a friend working for the Labor candidate in Berowra, been doing some letterboxing of Labor pamphlets around Thornleigh where I live(Northern suburbs of Sydney).
    Good exercise, and doing my little bit for the cause too.

  27. WeWantPaul at 4:46 pm

    “As The Australian Financial Review’s Phil Coorey pointed out after the latest Ipsos poll, Morrison’s numbers among female voters are dire and not shifting.”

    Enter mentions/photos/video of/with Jen in 5,4,3,2……..

  28. If Labor ends up with high 70’s in seats (which is where it looked like being 5 weeks ago). Did we even need an election campaign, ads etc etc?

  29. A payout of 500,000, two ministers named in conjunction and the PM says that he hasn’t been advised.
    Just what job does this bloke take responsibility for?

  31. Phil Coorey – soon to be pretty irrelevant. If Albo wins, I doubt an incoming Labor government will be quite as accomodating to Mr Coorey and the Murdoch media hacks as Morrison’s office has been over the past 3 years.

  32. poroti @ #624 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 4:57 pm

    WeWantPaul at 4:46 pm

    “As The Australian Financial Review’s Phil Coorey pointed out after the latest Ipsos poll, Morrison’s numbers among female voters are dire and not shifting.”

    Enter mentions/photos/video of/with Jen in 5,4,3,2……..

    And more wedding ring fiddling.

  33. Q :A slight headache for One Nation’s James Ashby.

    Is James Ashby the most tragic ‘patsy’ in Australian history? Stuck his neck out for the LNP, and all he ended up with was a $5million legal bill that the LNP wont write off!

    What a fool.

  34. GlenO
    So you’re saying that the proportions in one of the Liberals’ most important seats disproves actual data about trends in specific age groups across the country?

    I don’t follow your logic.

    It’s also faulty on the numbers – you’re only counting Labor+Greens, you need to count anyone else that also falls within the “Left” at the same time. In 2019, that includes Oliver Yates. You also need to include Angelina Zubac, in 2016 and 2019. By those numbers, the Left have been over 40% for the last couple of elections.
    ————————————-
    There is no nationwide swing to the left but what we are seeing is a 9 year old government coming to the end of its political life just as a future ALP government will at some stage and had Morrison been half competent in better managing the response to the pandemic then he would be easily returned but he stuffed it and that is why he will be losing and the other failure of Morrison is his relationship with women because they are a key group for the Liberal Party.

  35. Evansays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 4:56 pm
    G’day all, just back from helping out a friend working for the Labor candidate in Berowra, been doing some letterboxing of Labor pamphlets around Thornleigh where I live(Northern suburbs of Sydney).
    Good exercise, and doing my little bit for the cause too.

    –
    Good on ya Evan. Do it again , lol.

  37. I just had a personal call from Rebekha Sharkie asking a favour of me. I couldn’t say no to her request for me to do a shift outside the polling booth for her in a nearby town.
    I did ask her precisely what she said that led to the reporting that she would side with Morrison. All she said was that in the event of a hung parliament she would first talk to the incumbent PM to see what he could offer with respect to climate change, ICAC and a long list of other issues she has been championing for six years. She would then talk to Albanese. She was verballed.

  41. Sandman: cheers mate, have letterboxed quite a lot of my suburb actually. We’re a very safe Liberal seat, but I imagine Labor here are hoping they can reduce Julian Lesser’s margin by 3 or 4%.
    Letterboxing is quite a relaxing activity, good exercise too, which I need, judging by the state of the beer gut I’m sporting currently LOL, that beer gut which I plan to add to on May 21.

  42. B.S. Fairman: “Chisholm already voted”

    My electorate. Is it the highest? Looked it. I don’t know if that’s good or bad.

    but…

    Liu has to go. She really really does.

  43. Yeah well, Evan, my gut looks like its in its third trimester of pregnancy but it didn’t stop me either. Now I’m doing the easier job of pre poll booth work and enjoying it immensely. Cheers.

  46. Solomon Islands (courtesy of the Guardian):

    Former Solomon Islands high commissioner tries to confront Scott Morrison

    Trevor Sofield, who was Australia’s high commissioner to Solomon Islands from 1981 to 1985, spoke to reporters after he attempted to confront Scott Morrison in the marginal Tasmanian seat of Bass today.

    Sofield said he was a constituent of Bass, and said Morrison’s party had lost his vote:

    We have lost the plot in the South Pacific. And given that I’ve got a degree of experience I think I know what I’m talking about … the prime minister’s party has lost my vote … because of the way in which they have totally mishandled our national strategic interests, I’m no longer voting for the Liberal party.
    Police stop Trevor Sofield from speaking to Scott Morrison
    Police stop former Solomon Islands high commissioner Trevor Sofield from speaking to Scott Morrison on the campaign trail in Tasmania. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
    Sofield said he found it “incomprehensible that we did not know in advance what was happening in the Solomon Islands this time – it just couldn’t have happened previously”. (Morrison has repeatedly said Australia was not blindsided and was working through the issues carefully based on advice.)

    Asked whether the foreign minister, Marise Payne, should have travelled to Honiara last month instead of the junior minister Zed Seselja, Sofield said:

    Of course. But she should have been there before. She hasn’t been there since 2019. She should be going there every single year. That was the nature of the relationship that we used to have.
    A reporter put it to Sofield that the prime minister had said Australia needed to ensure it was not seen as a big brother. Sofield replied:

    What’s he doing but rationalising the position he finds himself in? We don’t have to be big brothers, we have to work with them, we have to understand their sensitivities, and we need indeed to make sure that however we work with them we’re working in conjunction, we’re not bullying, we’re not trying to drive something on them from above downwards. It’s really a matter of working at that equal partnership level.

  47. This alleged $500k to Tudge’s staffer is getting curiouser and curiouser. The $500k being discussed may well be for another Cabinet Minister’s misbehaviour. Morrison said today that the Tudge matter with Millar had not been settled. Tudge said he knew nothing about it when speaking yesterday.

    There was a report last week about a scandal involving another Minister.

    The lack of transparency is cause for speculation.

  48. BK @ #637 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 4:34 pm

    I just had a personal call from Rebekha Sharkie asking a favour of me. I couldn’t say no to her request for me to do a shift outside the polling booth for her in a nearby town.
    I did ask her precisely what she said that led to the reporting that she would side with Morrison. All she said was that in the event of a hung parliament she would first talk to the incumbent PM to see what he could offer with respect to climate change, ICAC and a long list of other issues she has been championing for six years. She would then talk to Albanese. She was verballed.

    Did she also mention how handsome you are BK?

    9 years and zip on important issues for Sharkie and the majority of the electorate. Not to mention the dogwhistling on gender and China etc. How Sharkie can contemplate dealing with Morrison and the Coalition is beyond me.

    I hope she realises how important prominent, hard working, left leaning folk like yourself are to her tenure – and left leaning Mayo voters in general.

  49. Yeah well, Evan, my gut looks like its in its third trimester of pregnancy but it didn’t stop me either. Now I’m doing the easier job of pre poll booth work and enjoying it immensely. Cheers.

    Sandman, what is your electorate? Mine is Berowra(Northern Suburbs of Sydney, ultra safe Liberal one).
    How is the pre poll stuff going for you in your area?
    Mate, you’re very welcome to join the Labor Poll Bludger Pissheads club, for blokes who are lefties and love getting on the ales.

  50. Jan
    The things that Sharkie is looking for are anathema to Morrison and what would be left of the Coalition in the event of a hung parliament. She made her point that it would be a matter of courtesy on her part to speak to Morrison first. She WILL be having the same conversation withe Albanese if it comes to pass.

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