YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

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  1. Burgey says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:56 pm
    “The 5.1% thing is arguably the best wedge in my time watching Australian politics.”

    And the Liberal “It’s not my job mate”ad riposte was the best self-wedge of this campaign at least.

  2. The Revisionist @ #476 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:44 pm

    Sorry, Glenno, though I agree Nath is wrong like usual, I don’t see how you arrive at Labor and the Greens being the two major parties?

    A quick look at 2016 and there are 43 seats where coalition led Labor by at least 20% on the 2PP – most of these with 50% plus primary votes. That is essentially 30% of all seats. Remember also that the Greens votes come back to Labor on more than an 80-20 basis and so the combined Labor / Greens vote in these places would almost always be less than 40%.

    In what future world – and how – are a significant number of these seats going to all of a sudden return Labor or Green members?

    As per the earlier discussion – the Greens will almost certainly emerge from this election with one seat whilst the Teals could end up snaring several wealthy inner city socially / environmentally progressive seats with Labor a chance in a few others.

    Where are the Greens going to start winning the considerable number of seats required to be considered a “major party”?

    The Teals phenomenon surely has more chance of morphing into a party of government than the Greens. It also has precedence.

    I suspect you err by assuming that the country becoming more progressive overtime means that there will be correlating shift in voting based on a linear construct of the current party platforms.

    History shows the Labor has become more progressive in advance the electorates it represents overall and that the right have splintered and reformed on a more progressive basis (after being taken over by reactionaries).

    I guess I need to drop the link a third time…

    https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

    Looking at young voters – under 35 – about 28% voted Greens in 2019. And when you look at 18-24 year olds, it’s 37%. So when you look at 18-24 year olds more broadly, Labor and Greens accounts for 81% of the vote between them. Even among 25-34 year olds, Labor+Greens is 59%.

    This balance is something that is growing towards the Left. In 2013, the Greens only got something like 20% of the 18-24 year old vote – which means even among the same voters (as they’ve grown older, and now sit within the 25-34 range) the Greens have strengthened. And it can’t just be explained away as “the Liberals have gotten more reactionary, they’ll go back when the Liberals return to a more progressive platform”, because political views tend to be learned when young, and then get cemented. This is why so many old people refuse to even look at the Greens (they immediately dismiss them as “just an environment party”, and many associate them with communism).

    The Teals will likely become a real force, too. Don’t get me wrong about that – they sit within a part of the political spectrum that has otherwise been vacant in Australia – right-wing progressive. But the medium-term trend is towards Labor and Greens getting the majority of votes between them.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting it’ll be at the next election, or the one after that. It’s probably not until around 2040 or so that it’ll reach that point. But there’s an entire generation who have learned that the two good parties are Labor and Greens, and that includes children growing up now. It’s not about political positions – simply shifting left or right isn’t likely to change it. It’s about which parties the public considers to be the important ones. And young people don’t consider the Liberals “important”, but rather as an impediment.

  4. I see mark Latham has just made a serious accusation on his outsides Facebook page. Thank Christ the abo incident will put off even the most anti Labor MSM from running it

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #477 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:44 pm

    It’s Time,

    The Greens Party offers nothing of substance to the political debate. Their constant whinging, their unrealistic policies that are long on rhetoric and stunts but short on substance, and their delusional self righteousness is all they have got.

    My hope is that Labor wins the Election outright and that there will be plenty of alternatives in the Senate that will enable Labor to implement their agenda. I’m sure Labor will work with those prepared to work with them.

    I doubt the Greens Party is capable of acting responsibly in the best interests of all Australians..

    A bit short sighted. There’s still the Senate where Labor will not have a majority. And the other options are not naturally friendly to Labor.

  7. GlenO says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 12:41 pm

    This is all mere rationalisation for the Green’s perennial Labor-hostile campaigns….campaigns that have helped maintain the Reactionaries in office. Bandt acknowledges this. He welcomes it.

    The Greens depend for their success in the Senate on defaming Labor. That’s why they do it. The Senate is their citadel. It is the hub around which their campaigns rotate.

  8. GlenO says:
    Your suggestion that young people would switch their support from Greens to Teals, purely based on the Teals also caring about the environment?
    ————————————
    The Teals are targeting progressive liberal economically conservative electorates that until now have been good for the Greens but many of those people were mostly supporting the Greens on climate. The young progressive private school people in Goldstein and Wentworth were not economically left wing.

  9. GG

    That was so funny [Downer’s expressions and head shakes themselves are worth the price of admission]- I still wish Labor had gone for an election right then (I know they were considering it). But the Liberals would likely have dumped Downer the day it was announced

    Still would likely have been not as bad a result as 1996 even if we lost.

  10. Gleno, a significant proportion of the population to change their vote to more conservative parties as they get older. Their interests change and, what may have been “progressive” when they were younger becomes less so over time. The demographic curve might be steeper now but it has always been thus.

    Just as a thought experiment, the comfortable majority of the people in the 65 and over age bracket of whom only 29% voted Labor and 2% voted Greens would have presumably voted for Whitlam in 1972.

  12. There is a steady job awaiting Morrison as a TV and radio spruiker for Harvey Norman.

    Or he could become Palmer’s personal valet.

  14. Looking at young voters – under 35 – about 28% voted Greens in 2019. And when you look at 18-24 year olds, it’s 37%. So when you look at 18-24 year olds more broadly, Labor and Greens accounts for 81% of the vote between them. Even among 25-34 year olds, Labor+Greens is 59%.

    This balance is something that is growing towards the Left. In 2013, the Greens only got something like 20% of the 18-24 year old vote – which means even among the same voters (as they’ve grown older, and now sit within the 25-34 range) the Greens have strengthened. And it can’t just be explained away as “the Liberals have gotten more reactionary, they’ll go back when the Liberals return to a more progressive platform”, because political views tend to be learned when young, and then get cemented. This is why so many old people refuse to even look at the Greens (they immediately dismiss them as “just an environment party”, and many associate them with communism).
    ——–
    GlenO
    The problem with this analysis is that the Greens are taking more votes from the ALP than the Liberals. We see this in Kooyong where the ALP used to poll in the 30s but now the ALP/Green combined vote is in the 30s so there has only been a small growth in the left vote.

  15. GlenO says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:35 pm
    It’s Time @ #445 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:20 pm

    And the visceral hatred of Greens which some of the Labor supporters display here doesn’t seem to have converted a single Green voter to a Labor voter. You simply make it more difficult for those of the centre and left of the political spectrum to fight the real enemies of humanity. Luckily Gillard didn’t have your sort of attitude so that she was actually able to implement Labor policies.
    The interesting thing is, even the Labor Party itself doesn’t have this strange view. They view Greens as inferior to Labor (and of course they would, given they’re in the Labor party – you wouldn’t choose to be in the party you consider inferior). But they also very clearly view the Greens as far preferable to the Liberals.

    Among other things, this can be seen in how Labor has campaigned in Griffith. They haven’t gone anti-Greens, not even slightly. I haven’t seen a single attack on the Greens in Griffith by Labor. They certainly had some ammunition if they wanted to use it, but they didn’t. Because when it comes down to it, they’d rather have Greens than Liberals, by a long shot.

    1. Labor do not consider themselves to be “superior” to anyone. This claim is completely false.

    2. The official Labor approach to the Greens is to ignore them entirely. This works. There is barely one official sentence spoken by Labor about the Greens per election cycle.

    3. Albo’s sentence this cycle was to affirm very succinctly that Labor would not deal with the Greens. Period.

    This is absolutely the correct approach to public campaigning by Labor.

    The only thing that distinguishes the Greens from the coalition is their declared position on Supply. The Greens have promised not to use their Senate numbers to block Supply. If it were not for this promise, Labor would have no reason to pref the Greens in the Senate. Considering that the Greens usually require Labor support to win seats in the Senate, this is no small thing. The Greens owe their privileges to Labor’s unconditional help.

  16. The Revisionist @ #508 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:17 pm

    Gleno, a significant proportion of the population to change their vote to more conservative parties as they get older. Their interests change and, what may have been “progressive” when they were younger becomes less so over time. The demographic curve might be steeper now but it has always been thus.

    Just as a thought experiment, the comfortable majority of the people in the 65 and over age bracket of whom only 29% voted Labor and 2% voted Greens would have presumably voted for Whitlam in 1972.

    I know what you mean, but the critical thing to notice isn’t the raw numbers, but the change in numbers. Young people are trending strongly to the left, with each successive election. This isn’t a “business as usual” pattern of younger people being more left than older people. It’s a substantial shift relative to the typical pattern.

  19. To whomsoever interested in Black holes at the centre of our galaxy, there is a monster lurking in our galaxy.

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101050908?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16523218136757&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2Fscience%2F2022-05-12%2Fblack-hole-milky-way-sagittarius-a-event-horizon-discovery%2F101050908

  24. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 2:29 pm
    The Liberals could say the seat of Melbourne is trending to them because they are now beating the ALP.”

    Labor won the 2PP 67 to 33 in Melbourne.

  25. All this space promoting the Greens

    As I put earlier on this thread, the incoming government will have far, far more to do across a troubled population to take any pressure from the Greens and their representatives

    The government will govern – remaining absolutely committed to their manifesto which saw their election

    You deliver on what you promise

    Hopefully a change in government and a healthy lower house majority which we will have to wait until 21 May to confirm

    So forget the knocking out war

    Just not interested

    The government after 21 May will be either a Labor government or a Coalition government

    That is the reality

  27. The Revisionist
    The Liberals have come second in Melbourne in the last two federal elections and that is why the Greens supporters are mistaken when they think that coming second in a seat then its trending their way.

  28. “GlenOsays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 2:22 pm
    The Revisionist @ #508 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:17 pm

    Gleno, a significant proportion of the population to change their vote to more conservative parties as they get older. Their interests change and, what may have been “progressive” when they were younger becomes less so over time. The demographic curve might be steeper now but it has always been thus.

    Just as a thought experiment, the comfortable majority of the people in the 65 and over age bracket of whom only 29% voted Labor and 2% voted Greens would have presumably voted for Whitlam in 1972.

    I know what you mean, but the critical thing to notice isn’t the raw numbers, but the change in numbers. Young people are trending strongly to the left, with each successive election. This isn’t a “business as usual” pattern of younger people being more left than older people. It’s a substantial shift relative to the typical pattern.”

    Which I would suggest is more a function of the current conditions such as:

    1. A historically reactionary conservative government
    2. A climate crisis for which (1) was doing worse than nothing
    3. A traditional media that is as partisan and collusive as it has ever been and yet highly skewed in age in terms of who it still influences
    4. A particularly “pro-young” policy platform by Labor

    No doubt that there will be a electoral legacy of these times but in a post energy transition era in say 20 years time, 80% of 38 to 45 year olds won’t be all voting for Labor and the Greens.

  29. The Greens are a chance in Higgins Brisbane Ryan Griffith and maybe Richmond because there are no Teals and a general anti Liberal swing.

  31. Rex

    The Greens Party props up Labor. Labor would never govern without them.

    Labor would be electorally irrelevant without the Greens Party.

    __________________________________

    That claim is on par with claiming that a host tree would die if it didn’t have mistletoe.

  32. I don’t know why Taylormade thinks that mean girls is an issue. He probably really doesn’t think so but can’t think of any other attack theme.

    Bernard Keane has produced data that shows that quite to the contrary of mean girls, the lady vote at this election will be a major contribitor to us getting rid of the worst government we have ever had;

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/12/female-voters-queue-to-belt-scott-morrison/?utm_source=pushengage&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=pn

  33. Spenec

    “The new One Nation MLC for SA sounds like a fair misfit for ON. We will see.”

    I agree. If Sara Game is who she claims to be, she may not get on so well with Pauline Hanson once she finds out who Hanson really is.

    It wouldn’t be the first time a Hanson candidate gets elected, gets disillusioned, and leaves the party within their first term in parliament.

  34. The endless Greens ranting continues to be profoundly boring. Maybe William can start a “morons braying about the Greens” thread where it can be contained and, ideally, buried deep underground.

  35. RD @1:53″Labor would be electorally irrelevant without the Greens Party.”

    you might as well say that Menzies would have been irrelevant without the DLP!
    The Greens are an ALP splinter, just as the DLP were. They have been eventually dominated by the SL who have saved themselves by cloaking themselves with a pseudo-environmentalist cover. This is particularly evident in NSW. in Vic they are more the latte sipping set!
    Has anybody noticed these ‘tree huggers’ get their biggest response in electorates with fewest trees?

  36. That Liberal “Not my job” ad is the weirdest bit of election advertising I have seen in a long time. What on earth were they thinking? I don’t think I have seen a single comment anywhere suggesting it was a good idea. If that’s where their campaign head-space is at, 21st May cannot come quickly enough!

  40. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 2:49 pm
    The Greens are a chance in Higgins Brisbane Ryan Griffith and maybe Richmond because there are no Teals and a general anti Liberal swing.”

    Sure but going off sportsbet odds

    Higgins – Lib 1.5 Lab 3.00 Greens 8.00
    Brisbane – Lib 1.85 Lab 3.00 Greens 4.0
    Ryan – Lib 1.5 Lab 4 Greens 4
    Griffith – Lab 1.25 Greens 3.75
    Richmond – Labor 1.15 to Greens 5

    So the closest is 3.45 in a labor held seat. Absence of Teals and Brisbane being the key features of where they are competitive

  41. Outsider @ #536 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:55 pm

    That Liberal “Not my job” ad is the weirdest bit of election advertising I have seen in a long time. What on earth were they thinking? I don’t think I have seen a single comment anywhere suggesting it was a good idea. If that’s where their campaign head-space is at, 21st May cannot come quickly enough!

    I think it is a salve to Slomo’s ego. I’d be surprised if he didn’t actually order it to be done. Another Captain’s Pick fail?

  42. Socrates

    Greg Norman re the MBS murder of Khasshogi, “we’ve all made mistakes”! WTF, is he crazy? He’s spent too much time at the 19th hole methinks.

  43. Here in the Richmond electorate in 4½ months so far this year, I’ve measured 1.7 metres of rain at my place and it’s pouring at the moment!

  44. The recent Dollop podcast on Gough and Kerr was really interesting.

    Then one thinks of the full court press where the LNP and the MSM discredited everything good the ALP did and maximised political pain from the leadership chaos, which at the time I thought was fair enough, but the asymmetric treatment of LNP leadership changes bells the cat on that one.

    The outlier is Hawke Keating.

    Hopefully if Albo sprints over the line they have a plan to take on the inevitable attempts to stop any action that would actually help most Australians.

  45. Spence,

    Good piece. She is certainly different to the usual perceptions of One Nation politicians. I suppose we should watch what she does before assessment. But, she seems to epitomise the current spate of well educated determined women keen to make an impact on Australian politics.

    Certainly, one to watch.

  46. As an ex Greens member I will say that as a country we will be better served with a Labor government free of leadership challenges and minority government. The Greens are made up of two distinct “factions”. Watermelons who are socialists and disaffected small L Liberals. The Greens pitch member consensus decision making but in reality it’s the people in power that make decisions and if you stray too far out of line you become a target. The policies they push have no relevance to them personally. How many Greens members live in public housing or have ever attended a TAFE campus or use a public hospital emergency department? Then they seek to wedge one group against another and their opinion is final and anyone who disagrees is ostracised. Been there and done that.

  47. Socrates. The Greg Norman comments about Saudi Arabian murder of Khashoggi while trying to get a multi million $ golf show off the ground with support of some wealthy Saudi interests is about as sick as it gets. His reputation continues to get spiral down after all the Trump cuddles.

  48. Spence, Socrates, GG

    When I heard that One Nation had won a seat in the SA upper house I didn’t expect a bio like hers.

    I wish Sarah Game all the best in her new job, whether or not she remains in that party. (I expect her to leave this term)

  49. BK @ #463 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:38 pm

    If Albanese wins with a working majority it will be testament to the superb long game that he played.

    Indeed, in the early days of the pandemic, it seemed Morrison would win this election with an increased majority. Albanese played a very patient game, at times to the annoyance of his supporters.

    All Morrison needed to do was to work humbly with the states – do a reasonable job of procuring what was needed and avoid cheap shots for political gains. Had he done this I think his bushfire persona would have been forgotten and this election would have been an easy win.

    Instead, he proved incapable of simply doing a competent job and took every opportunity to snipe at the Labor states. Albanese’s patience paid off and ALP has been able to steadily build a picture of Morrison that he now can’t shake – largely because it is rooted in truth.

    The fable of the scorpion and the frog seems appropriate.

  50. This was an awkward moment alright & one which he probably regrets. But he just couldn’t help the snark – his default stance:

    [‘The awkward moment

    The most awkward moment of the debate came at the close, where moderator Mark Riley (who did a terrific job keeping the leaders in check and on point) invited both leaders to say something nice about their opponent.

    Morrison spoke warmly of Albanese’s determination to rise from humble beginnings, but only briefly. He pivoted to yet another sledge about his opponent being unfit for the top job.] – Aunty.

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