YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

Comments Page 12 of 20
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  1. Re Game, anyone who willingly associates with Hanson is guilty by association IMHO. No reasonable person could be blind to Hanson’s atrocious record of racist and xenophobic exploitation.

  2. “The Liberals have come second in Melbourne in the last two federal elections and that is why the Greens supporters are mistaken when they think that coming second in a seat then its trending their way.”

    ***

    It’s trending their way if the Greens vote is increasing while others are decreasing.

    In Melbourne, Adam Bandt’s primary vote increased at the last election to 49.3% (+4.7%), while the Liberals and Labor both suffered negative swings against them in the seat (−3.32% and −4.22%, respectively). For either the Liberals or Labor to make the claim that Melbourne is trending their way would be totally factually inaccurate, and to be fair I don’t think either of them is actually making that claim.

    In Griffith on the other hand, the Greens finished third in primaries at the 2019 Election with 23.65%, while the LNP finished first (40.97%) and Labor second (30.95%). However, just like in Melbourne, both the LNP/Libs and Labor suffered negative swings against them in Griffith (−0.21% and −2.18%, respectively) while the Greens gained a large positive swing towards them (+6.67%). Therefore, even though the Greens finished third in primary votes, it is entirely fair to say that Griffith is trending towards them based on the swings.

  3. If Albanese wins with a working majority it will be testament to the superb long game that he played. ??

    I myself see a touch of Bob Hawke in Albo !.

  4. Work To Rule

    Yes the most amazing thing is that Morrison had the chance for redemption after his bushfire debacles almost instantly with the once in a century pandemic, and he fluffed it!

    “To stuff up one major crisis may be regarded as a misfortune, to stuff up two (or three – floods!) looks like carelessness”

    I think with a good pandemic response he could have redeemed himself in the eyes of many Australians.

  5. Spence @ #547 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:33 pm

    Socrates. The Greg Norman comments about Saudi Arabian murder of Khashoggi while trying to get a multi million $ golf show off the ground with support of some wealthy Saudi interests is about as sick as it gets. His reputation continues to get spiral down after all the Trump cuddles.

    Puts ‘Republicans buy shoes too’ into some perspective.

  7. I myself see a touch of Bob Hawke in Albo !.

    Struggling to see much of a comparison beyond both being ALP leaders (and hopefully both being ALP PMs).

  8. 1934

    Hawke played a pretty short game though, given he became LOTO on the day the 83 election was called

    I can hear a similarity between their voices to some small extent

  10. Spencesays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 3:03 pm
    Socrates. The Greg Norman comments about Saudi Arabian murder of Khashoggi while trying to get a multi million $ golf show off the ground with support of some wealthy Saudi interests is about as sick as it gets. His reputation continues to get spiral down after all the Trump cuddles.

    Peter Fitzsimmons wrote about it some weeks ago.

    Sorry don’t have the link but Mr Google should work, it’s a good read.

  11. ‘GlenO says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 2:05 pm

    The Revisionist @ #476 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:44 pm

    Sorry, Glenno, though I agree Nath is wrong like usual, I don’t see how you arrive at Labor and the Greens being the two major parties?

    A quick look at 2016 and there are 43 seats where coalition led Labor by at least 20% on the 2PP – most of these with 50% plus primary votes. That is essentially 30% of all seats. Remember also that the Greens votes come back to Labor on more than an 80-20 basis and so the combined Labor / Greens vote in these places would almost always be less than 40%.

    In what future world – and how – are a significant number of these seats going to all of a sudden return Labor or Green members?

    As per the earlier discussion – the Greens will almost certainly emerge from this election with one seat whilst the Teals could end up snaring several wealthy inner city socially / environmentally progressive seats with Labor a chance in a few others.

    Where are the Greens going to start winning the considerable number of seats required to be considered a “major party”?

    The Teals phenomenon surely has more chance of morphing into a party of government than the Greens. It also has precedence.

    I suspect you err by assuming that the country becoming more progressive overtime means that there will be correlating shift in voting based on a linear construct of the current party platforms.

    History shows the Labor has become more progressive in advance the electorates it represents overall and that the right have splintered and reformed on a more progressive basis (after being taken over by reactionaries).

    I guess I need to drop the link a third time…

    https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

    Looking at young voters – under 35 – about 28% voted Greens in 2019. And when you look at 18-24 year olds, it’s 37%. So when you look at 18-24 year olds more broadly, Labor and Greens accounts for 81% of the vote between them. Even among 25-34 year olds, Labor+Greens is 59%.
    ….’
    ——————————–
    And then the young grow old. Twas ever thus.

  12. Work To Rule @ #547 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 3:06 pm

    BK @ #463 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:38 pm

    If Albanese wins with a working majority it will be testament to the superb long game that he played.

    Indeed, in the early days of the pandemic, it seemed Morrison would win this election with an increased majority. Albanese played a very patient game, at times to the annoyance of his supporters.

    All Morrison needed to do was to work humbly with the states – do a reasonable job of procuring what was needed and avoid cheap shots for political gains. Had he done this I think his bushfire persona would have been forgotten and this election would have been an easy win.

    Instead, he proved incapable of simply doing a competent job and took every opportunity to snipe at the Labor states. Albanese’s patience paid off and ALP has been able to steadily build a picture of Morrison that he now can’t shake – largely because it is rooted in truth.

    The fable of the scorpion and the frog seems appropriate.

    Albanese was smart enough to identify the only tactical option for him to employ against Morrison was the rope-a-dope tactic. Worked a treat.

  14. Looking at young voters – under 35 – about 28% voted Greens in 2019 ????

    They might be voting Green but they want Labor to Win !.
    Because they have Bucklies of becoming Government !!.

  16. The Greens will never become a major party while their policy is to halve the ADF and turn it into a Light Mobile Force, to kill off ANZUS, to evict all US presence from Australian soil, and to ban US warships and aircraft from visiting Australia.

    It does not help the Greens that they they regard Taiwan as not being Australia’s business, that they regard Australians who are concerned about the China-Solomons Pact as being ‘racists’ and being viscerally anti-US.

  17. ‘Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 2:54 pm

    The endless Greens ranting continues to be profoundly boring. …’
    ==========================================
    True. Good point. But IMO that does not mean the Greens should STFU. We live in a democracy, after all.

  18. Work To Rule @ #549 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 3:06 pm

    BK @ #463 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:38 pm

    If Albanese wins with a working majority it will be testament to the superb long game that he played.

    Indeed, in the early days of the pandemic, it seemed Morrison would win this election with an increased majority. Albanese played a very patient game, at times to the annoyance of his supporters.

    All Morrison needed to do was to work humbly with the states – do a reasonable job of procuring what was needed and avoid cheap shots for political gains. Had he done this I think his bushfire persona would have been forgotten and this election would have been an easy win.

    Instead, he proved incapable of simply doing a competent job and took every opportunity to snipe at the Labor states. Albanese’s patience paid off and ALP has been able to steadily build a picture of Morrison that he now can’t shake – largely because it is rooted in truth.

    The fable of the scorpion and the frog seems appropriate.

    You forget his dismal performance during the recent floods.

  19. Herald Sun 12/05
    Daniel Andrews has shut down questions about why he and the Health Minister are yet to read a crucial report into the state’s besieged triple-0 service.

    The Premier on Thursday refused to answer whether it was appropriate that both he and Martin Foley haven’t properly read former top cop Graham Ashton’s review into ESTA, despite it being handed to the government in March.

    “This is completely and utterly a political game,” Mr Andrews repeated outside parliament.
    _____________________
    It should have already been released by now.
    Surely they won’t blame the Federal govt for this crisis but they probably will.
    Next thing we know they will be blaming the Federal govt for thier failure to read the report as well

  24. Assuming:
    * Polling accurately reflects current voting behaviour.
    * New polls will be released on Sunday.
    * TPP is an adequate representation at this coarse level of detail.
    * Current TPP is ALP 54.3% versus 45.7% LNP (bludgertrack)
    * 84% of votes will be cast during the final week. (see below*)

    Question:
    * What would the Final Week’s polls need to be in order for the net outcome for ALP versus LNP to be 50/50?

    Answer:
    * ALP 49.2% versus 50.8% LNP

    Calculations:
    * LNP: 45.7% x 16% + 50.8% x 84% = 50.0%
    * ALP: 54.3% x 16% + 49.2% x 84% = 50.0%

    Observations:
    * The LNP need a consistent swing of more than 5.1% in TPP starting on Monday in order to tie.
    * It’s uphill for the LNP from here.
    * Assumptions can be varied but the message doesn’t change much.
    * (Funny about that value of 5.1%.)

    ——————-
    (*below)
    How I arrived at the number 84%.

    * If this election follows the same trend as previous elections then about half of all votes will have been cast before the final day.
    * No early voting happens on the weekend.
    * So far 12% of votes have been cast. (per A. Green)
    * A steady 22% day over day increase in votes cast accumulate 50% total early votes by Saturday (21st).
    * On that assumed trend, 16% of all votes will have been cast by Sunday (15th).
    * So 84% of all votes will be cast in the final week.

  25. They reckon Sturt is 50-50. Hard to believe. Labor has won Sturt only twice since the seat emerged in 1949. Norman Makin briefly interrupted (Sir) Keith Wilson’s tenancy in 1954 and Norm Foster gave the son, Ian Wilson, a three-year holiday in 1969. A swing of 6.9% is needed this time.

    You wouldn’t think it was on, except there are a few auguries if you want to believe. Yesterday I attended a book launch (Writing for his life: Stewart Cockburn, Crusading Journalist, by Jennifer Cockburn). A lady I’d never met recognised me as a former Labor candidate for Sturt. She was Mary Wilson, widow of Ian, the long-serving Member for Sturt before he was usurped by Christopher Pyne. We had a pleasant chat.

    I take that as a sign. Unusual things are happening in SA politics. Sturt looks a chance because:

    1. Peter Malinauskas has just led Labor to a strong victory over a one-term government. On the state election figures, Sturt would go to Labor. Now YouGov says it’s 50-50.
    2. The Liberal member for Sturt, James Stevens, is no Pyne or Wilson. In three years he’s hit the headlines once – when he went to sleep on the job and missed voting on a vital bill. It’s been a quiet campaign in Sturt, but at least Labor has matched the Libs by getting its postal vote info into letterboxes the same day.
    3. Labor’s Sonja Baram in a mother – a bonus when female voters are turning off Scott Morrison.
    4. There are 11 candidates. The Greens’ Katie McCusker is in top spot, followed by Sonja Baram. James Stevens is last. He’s advocating a vote straight up the ticket but the normal donkey vote should favour Sonja.

    Fingers crossed.

  26. The Vic Libs are gonna have to manage quite a few other no hopers along with DimTim and Bernie Finn if they want to be taken seriously.

    Actually, has Matthew Guy actually punted Bernie yet or he still sheltering him …?

  27. And a question:-

    Of those on $20- an hour, being the minimum wage, and now (maybe) to earn the princely sum of $21- an hour, what hours per week are they working?

    So, in terms of what goes into their pockets from their employer’s profit, how much a week is it that goes into their pockets from their employer’s net profit before tax (noting the tax deductability of Wages and Salaries)?

    $40- extra a week because they work 40 hours a week?

    So they will be getting $168- for an 8 hour day (at work so ex travel time and the cost to get to and from work, noting petrol is once again well over $2- a litre).

    And what Industries are they employed in – doing what exactly?

    I would suggest that these low income earners are part time and casual, maybe bringing some form of second income into a home and not employed for 40 hours a week.

    The same demographic excluded from JOBkeeper.

    Whilst Company Balance Sheets received the advantage they did.

    IF the number (maybe) eligible for the $1- an hour increase is 200,000 as reported, they are few and far between on the ground.

    So, on average, across the 8 jurisdictions of Australia, 25,000 per jurisdiction.

    And this is going to send inflation sky rocketing!!!!!

    The Pentecostal with the Glass Jaw has once again been caught out, and this bluster is his response.

    The last FWA deliberations delivered a 2.5% increase.

    Which has sent how many businesses broke (even in times of a Pandemic and public caution)?

    Simply, if such a small increase in your Wages and Salaries expense puts you under pressure, you should not be in business.

    You are a danger to your Trade Creditors and other lenders – along with to employee entitlements.

    Noting the Company of Howard’s brother went belly up, owing its employees.

    Perhaps those the Pentecostal with the Glass Jaw attacks should just give up on employment on the minimum wage and apply for the Dole (“Well, I earn $400- a week for working 20 hours then it costs me $100- a week for petrol” – assuming you are not accessing Child Care!!!).

    Meanwhile, what does the Pentecostal with the Glass Jaw earn, and what increases has he enjoyed in his remuneration?

    What would “jobs. jobs, jobs” say then, whilst frothing at the mouth?

  29. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 3:41 pm

    Koukoulas
    @TheKouk

    AUD 0.6880…
    Like wow, wipeout.’
    =============
    Down from 74 cents not so long ago.

  30. Shellbell: those are horrible wiki-mirror sites. According to the actual Wikpedia, Pearce died in 1992. (Commonly known as George Pearce, but not the one the WA division is named after.)

    Bill Grayden is still around, as far as I know. His son Jim has run in a couple of elections as well.

  31. Ask Me Anything (Relevant) On Reddit: 8 pm AEST Sat 14 May

    Just an announcement that this Saturday from 8 pm to 9 pm (perhaps later) I will be doing an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on the r/AustralianPolitics subreddit on Reddit. This is a chance for people to bombard me with questions that I will then attempt to answer at warp speed (I believe you need to sign up to participate, but anyone can read it without being signed in). The AMA is in relation to the 2022 federal election and polling.

    Posted by Kevin Bonham at 9:33 AM

  32. Member for Mayo Rebekha Sharkie has launched legal action against the Australian Christian Lobby after it used her photograph in two leaflets that were circulated in her electorate to “denigrate” members of the LGBTQI+ community, those fleeing domestic violence or seeking IVF treatment.

    The ACL is accused of breaching copyright and the use of Sharkie’s likeness without her permission. Sharkie alleges the lobby group did not pay to use the photo nor ask permission for use.

  33. I remember well when we moved to the USA in 1993, taking every AUD we could find with us so we might set up over there for a bit. The AUD had fallen into the low 60c range. It may even have sunk into the 50c range. But by then we couldn’t care any more. We consoled ourselves that we had enough for our adventure and were then earning “big” dollars and would be able to catch up. By the time we returned to Australia the tables had turned. The AUD was worth more than the USD. (There was a Best Treasurer we could blame for that, I suppose.) Oh well.

    The larger points being, this sort of thing happens and I’m not sure what it really means in the long run. Perhaps Australia might look to importing less for a bit.

  34. Toorak, re Sturt…. Handshin got very close in 2007. That was an excellent candidate and there was a federal 2PP of 52.7.

    If the fed 2PP polls are right then I would be surprised if the ALP werent having a red hot go in Sturt at the fairly untested incumbent.

  36. Patrick Bateman @ #534 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 2:54 pm

    The endless Greens ranting continues to be profoundly boring.

    I only poke my head in here at election time, and I’m pretty sure I’ve seen the exact same comments – posted by the exact same people – about Labor vs. The Greens in 2019, 2016, 2013 and 2010..

  37. @carson63000:

    I can assure you it is not merely triennial, and is in fact worse when there isn’t an imminent federal election to distract the cats in the sack from their usual hobby.

  38. 9 sleeps to go.

    Bluey is bemused by the human-induced polling frottage.

    ASX all ords down 1.75%. Phew. Aussie down to 68.8 cents. Phew. Bluey reckons this couldn’t happen at a better time for Mr Morrison.

    Bluey reckons that, in terms of substance, Morrison possibly narrowly won the debate. But, as usual, it was about the meta messaging. Morrison let Mr Nasty out for a snarl. Dopey stuff. Morrison tried to bludgeon listeners with numbers. Morrison talked AT listeners. He used ‘You’. Albanese was warm and inclusive. He used ‘We’. Body language: genuine smile versus rictus. Albanese: polite and assertive; Morrison: nasty and aggressive. Barring a Cygnus atratus intrusion, Bluey reckons that this debate was the last chance Saloon for Morrison. The Phat Lady can prepare her throat gargle sauce.

    Bluey reckons that Labor has found a wonderful way to return serve to the Murdercrats. The key to commercial streaming success is sports. Strengthening anti-siphon laws is (a) popular, (b) cost-free to the taxpayer and (c) hurting Murdoch where it hurts. Brilliant stuff!

    Some human littered a Guardian page, by way of a fisherman’s basket wrapper (grrr), into Bluey’s rock pool. Bluey read that some of the Teals are meeting or outspending the Liberals on social media stuff. Bluey reckons he is still waiting for the NBN to get to his rock pool so does not understand that stuff at all.

    Bluey missed it that Joyce gave himself a nose bleed at the NPC. Bluey notes that, while it may be completely immaterial with respect to our esteemed Deputy Prime Minister Joyce, alcohol does do damage to the blood vessels inside the nose and may lead to increased bleeding. Bluey reckons that, Joyce’s APC hyuk hyuk verbalisms were stinking effluvia in the run-off gutter of democracy.

    Paul Fletcher, Liberal MP, has AGAIN been caught out co-opting without authorization and compromising a third party. This time the Police Citizens Youth Clubs NSW.

    Bluey notes that yet another Liberal, Fiona Martin, Division of Reid has been forced to take down election material co-opting without authorization and compromising a third party. In this case Patrick McGorry.

    Bluey reckons that there have now been so many cases of Liberals co-opting without authorization and thereby compromising third parties that it is systemic. Bluey reckons there is no bar too low for the Corruption of Thieves.

    Bluey is impressed with Rudd’s contribution to Team Labor in this election and declares the Rudd/Gillard wars to be dead, buried and cremated. Rudd is back in the Labor trenches working hard for the good guys. Bluey reckons that Rudd must have warmed A-E’s cockles when Rudd called Dutton a hairy chested ‘idiot’. Can’t say fairer than that.

    Bluey is also impressed with the way in which Abbott went out of his way to further trash his standing, were that possible. He did this by his unrestrained praise of the virtues of Deves. Bluey reckons bloody idiot. Meanwhile the Federal Treasurer (Mr Frydenberg) has used big sonorous and slow words to implicitly shaft the Prime Minister (Mr Morrison) with respect to Ms Deves.

    Based on the debate AND particularly on the reporting of the debate, Bluey has decided to award Mr Albanese a small incremental gain and to hand Mr Morrison a small incremental loss. Notwithstanding his nose bleed, Mr Joyce stands still. Bluey has also had a look at the Greens absurdist and unscientific claims to be able to get extinction by 2030 to zero and to be able to save the Reef. Bluey declares both of these policies to be Morrisonian Lies. So Bluey has handed Mr Bandt a minus increment. After all, this is existential for Bluey and his beloved Reef home.

    Score for the day: Morrison -.5; Allbanese +.5; Joyce 0; Bandt -.5.

    Cumulative score: Morrison 1.5; Albanese 5; Joyce .5; Bandt – .5.

    Bluey projects Labor gaining a majority government with a small number of seats to the good. Bluey has moved the Moet from the cellar to the fridge.

    Bluey projects a dog’s breakfast for the Senate.

  39. On a different note entirely, the weather is beginning to feel a bit like February, though a few degrees cooler. Conversations turn easily to Mr Morrison’s trip to Lismore.

  40. carson63000, yep, it’s like stepping into an asylum where the same 4-5 inmates have been having the exact same argument since 1982.

    I tend to drop in around state and federal elections and it’s incredible the amount of repetition of this nonsense.

    These people (some of whom also make worthwhile contributions) don’t seem to realise how irritating and rude it is.

  42. Bludging: “Albo’s greatest achievements are about to be realised: the electoral destruction of the worst Government since Federation – winning office for Labor from Opposition for just the 5th time since 1917.”

    Don’t wanna get ahead of myself, but if it were to happen, he will have done it as a quintessential Labor man.

  44. How does the YouGov MRP polling, which applies results to seats using demographics rather than specific responses, account for factors such as whether or not the seat actually has a “teal” independent?

    I look at something like Kooyong compared to Higgins and think that it seems like it takes it into account very well – Kooyong with an extremely high “Other” and Higgins with only 5% which in the absence of a teal independent looks about right – but then I look at Macnamara’s results and feel like the demographic method must be incorrectly applying some of the independent support in Goldstein/Kooyong to its result despite having no viable independent.

    The “Other” result in Macnamara was a whopping 10%, but these are the only 3 “Others” running:
    – Liberal Democrats
    – Animal Justice Party
    – A wacky disgraced doctor who lost his license for inappropriate conduct with patients who is a serial-pest candidate and only got 450 votes in 2016

    They will only get around 4% combined. So surely that additional 6% *has* to be coming from the independent/teal support in seats like Kooyong/Goldstein being incorrectly allocated to Macnamara based on its similar demographics, even though there isn’t one for it to be attributed to.

    But if that is the case, why didn’t it happen in Higgins too where the demographics are even more similar to Goldstein and Kooyong and it similarly has no teal independent?

    If anything, Higgins should have a higher “Other” result than Macnamara because they have 4 “other” candidates running – including Reason – compared to 3 in Macnamara where one of them (the independent) is certain to come last.

  45. The Toorak Toff says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 3:39 pm

    “They reckon Sturt is 50-50…… Peter Malinauskas has just led Labor to a strong victory over a one-term government. On the state election figures, Sturt would go to Labor. Now YouGov says it’s 50-50”

    And Marshall was not as unpopular as Scomo is. He was a moderate and didn’t smirk.

    Fingers crossed.

  47. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/royalty-boom-to-feed-cost-of-living-support-in-wa-budget-20220511-p5akih.html?fbclid=IwAR2L-e3MmomD-K1IlO7MokxScxOBf9yiW71VFwyUl-DaNKOqb4lCDXetGL4

    What a terrible time for Mark McGowan to do a blatant cost of living help thing from an ALP Govt?? How could he do that to his good mate Scomo, particularly after Scomo the brave made such a point of how wonderful the GST deal he did with W.A was during the last debate……….. even though the other states hate it so much?? 🙂

    OK, its another 1 off, a bit like the $600 last W.A. budget (or the one before??). But…..I can tell you that went down VERY well with people here, particularly the oldies / pensioners. 🙂

  48. Boerwar

    That drop in the AUD won’t help inflation one bit. It adds about 5% to imported inflation drivers. And will pressure the RBA to speed up rate hikes to avoid further drops in the AUD (and more inflation).

    Add in the coming massive rise in power prices, plus gas, rent, and wages moving….there is a mighty lot of baked in inflation for interest rates to temper.

    I had thought rates would cap out near 2%, but that’s looking less likely by the day IMO. A major correction in house prices seems likely.

    This will be a tough environment for Labor to govern (or anyone for that matter). No one really knows what will happen from here….but many scenarios seem like ending in recession.

  49. I would LOVE to see Sturt go to Labor. Stevens is such a lame LNP non-entity. I think they are nervous – there are a massive number of corflutes with his generic mug on them all over the electorate.

    Unfortunately the large local Italian community seems to be fairly rusted-on and pro-Liberal, and will likely drag them over the line again.

  50. Hah. Please thank Bluey for the word “frottage”. (I expect Bluey knows about getting off rocks.) Rolling that word around, it might be good name for this place. Poll Frottage. Frottage poll. It has a lovely (blue?) ring to it. 🙂

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