The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.
Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.
As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.
Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:
• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.
• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.
• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.
• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.
• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.
• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.
These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.
Abbott fancies Deves, not in the carnal sense(?) but rather her chances in Warringah; she’s got Buckley’s…:
[‘Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has urged Liberals to “get behind” Liberal candidate Katherine Deves amid a storm of controversy over her claims trans teenagers are being “surgically mutilated.”
Mr Abbott, who lost the seat of Warringah in 2019 to Independent Zali Steggall, has predicted she’s a real chance of winning the seat back.
Urging volunteers not to abandon ship to nearby electorates where Liberal MPs are fighting for their political lives, Mr Abbott he was proud to support her.
“The more I see of Katherine Deves the more impressed I am with her courage, with her common sense, with her decency and with quite frankly her capacity to win this seat back for the Liberal Party,” Mr Abbott said in a video obtained by news.com.au.’]
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/electorates/former-prime-minister-tony-abbott-urges-support-for-katherine-deves/news-story/6bb299e0455312b931ec1ef941ef83f7
Greensborough Growler @ #434 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:08 pm
Might have had the zinger rehearsed – you could see him getting ready once the question gave him the opening. Just shows he’s on his game
Tricot @ #409 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 12:52 pm
East Africa. Just like every other human.
Albo: Morrison has an allergy to the ABC
Labor have already got a loose unit ad up – brilliant use of smirkos words against him.
Abbott fancies Deves, not in the carnal sense(?)
_________________
I wouldn’t bet on it, Mavis!
“Scomoe” might be a concocted persona but I tell you what, if two things tell you about the real Scott Morrison story it would be his refusal to go on the ABC and his support of anti trans activist and LNP captains pick Deves.
max @ #430 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:07 pm
I despair at the condescending elitism of some people.
Now, I admit, that I don’t read every word of every long post by GlenO (life’s too short), however, I would like to say that nowhere in the post that I responded to did he make it clear what he subsequently made clear in his reply to me.
Now, you can use that reply to tee off on people who take the time out of their busy days to reply to the seemingly, on it’s face, convoluted reasoning of GlenO, that’s your prerogative, but to use it as an opportunity to make an offensive comment about the people who replied to him is something you should regret.
I won’t hold my breath that you will, based upon past performance.
IMO:
If Albo loses, it’ll be blamed on the gaffe and the small-target strategy.
If Albo wins a slim majority or becomes PM in a hung parliament, the narrative will be either that the gaffe and the small-target strategy prevented a larger victory and/or that Scomo heroically saved the furniture against Labor’s dirty, policy-free campaign.
If Albo wins in a landslide, he will be hailed as a tactical genius and praised for standing his ground on the small-target strategy.
Apologies if posted already. The Indian diaspora in Australia have a poll…
Including a question on SfM’s curry stunts…
The two leading political parties sit equally split amongst our surveyed sample, the ALP taking 43.14 per cent of the vote and the Coalition 42.98 per cent. The same level split is seen on the question of preferred Prime Minister, with Albanese taking 50.33 per cent of the vote and Scott Morrison 49.67 per cent.
……….
Two questions specific to the Indian community were raised in our poll.
One of these related to the Prime Minister’s frequent curry nights on social media.
The constant barrage has emerged as a flashpoint with about 23 per cent of respondents, who reported that they are now less likely to vote for Scott Morrison. 8 per cent of the respondents though did say that the curry posts had a positive impact on their voting intentions. (One cheeky comment suggested that perhaps Scott Morrison should participate in Indian Link’s MasalaChef 2022 competition.) An overwhelming majority of 69 per cent reported that Morrison’s curry habits had no impact on their voting intentions.
https://www.indianlink.com.au/india-in-australia/indian-link-federal-election-2022-survey-its-a-dead-heat/
It’s Time @ #445 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:20 pm
The interesting thing is, even the Labor Party itself doesn’t have this strange view. They view Greens as inferior to Labor (and of course they would, given they’re in the Labor party – you wouldn’t choose to be in the party you consider inferior). But they also very clearly view the Greens as far preferable to the Liberals.
Among other things, this can be seen in how Labor has campaigned in Griffith. They haven’t gone anti-Greens, not even slightly. I haven’t seen a single attack on the Greens in Griffith by Labor. They certainly had some ammunition if they wanted to use it, but they didn’t. Because when it comes down to it, they’d rather have Greens than Liberals, by a long shot.
It’s also why Labor feels so comfortable saying that they won’t do a deal with the Greens, they’ll just enact their policies and trust that the Greens will support them. If Labor were so worried about the Greens somehow working for the Liberals (as some unhinged arguments made here suggest), they wouldn’t be so unconcerned about them.
Get your Albo ‘Loose Unit’ merchandise! – https://nordacious.com/search?type=product,article,page&q=loose&fbclid=IwAR2pW9-GuXDa8uyIWO4unG6XlNuvMr7PJFdEThWpaYMltMNgUgri9fDOWao
steve davis at 1:11 pm
IF Labor wins there’s a good chance the media lizards will ‘discover’ it was ALL SfM’s fault . Then when they get a new leader the future looks brighter, renewal begins ………………………or so they will tell us.
Mavis @ #449 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:24 pm
Hmmm, endorsement from a derelict politician who lost his own seat is probably not the help Deves was hoping for.
If Albanese wins with a working majority it will be testament to the superb long game that he played.
citizensays: Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:26 pm
Albo: Morrison has an allergy to the ABC
Polls come and go. I welcome the debate that we had last time. I make this comment – I thank Channel Seven for hosting last night. And previously, Channel Nine and Sky News for hosting the three debates that we’ve had. I make this comment – I cannot believe that the national prime minister will be the first one during a campaign who has not appeared on any ABC programs. It is like he has an allergy to the ABC. No debate on the ABC. No appearance on Q+A. No appearance on RN Breakfast. No appearance on ABC Breakfast. No interviews on Insiders, on the major programs, and no appearance yet at the National Press Club.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I posted this yesterday – but it may be of interest for anyone that missed it
Red Kerry with Virginia Trioli this morning – definitely worth a listen !!! …… Murdoch control of the media
Kerry O’Brien urges voters to back candidates who support ABC
Former 7.30 and Four Corners host Kerry O’Brien has urged voters to back candidates who support a strong and well-funded ABC.
Speaking to Virginia Trioli on Mornings after appearing in a new campaign video produced by ABC Alumni, Mr O’Brien said the national broadcaster has never been more important.
“The fact that the ABC has been the most trusted institution in this country for as long as it has speaks volumes for its importance, particularly at this time when there are all the signs that cannot be ignored of how our democracy is fraying at the edges,” he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/kerry-obrien-abc/13876574?msclkid=e9b6dbd3d0ea11ecb62b8022c34fc004
C@tmomma @ #456 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:33 pm
That’s because it was clear by the context of what I was replying to. I’m already overly verbose. I’m not going to go through all of the extra explanation of the context that was provided in a previous post, in replying to someone that already knows what I’m replying to.
At the risk of inflaming the anglo, anglo-saxon, anglo-celtic dispute here, in his response to the question about having an Italian name, Albanese said:
“We’re a diverse country, and the fact that I have a non-Anglo-Celtic name, and so does our Senate leader as well, I think it sends a message out there hopefully to multicultural Australia that you can achieve anything in this country.”
So if Frydbrain loses his seat will it be Dutton as OL?
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 11:54 am
Meanwhile, Xi’s fight for zero Covid continues unabated.
Morrison & Xi.. ideologues have a lot in common, can’t say sorry, can’t admit an error, can’t back track, never make a mistake.
It’s Time @ #451 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 12:55 pm
Is that where Adam had his 50+ children during his 900y lifespan?
I think that’s fair Asha.
It truly would be miracle 2.0 for Scomo to win from here. The difference this time is he’s a known commodity .
I also think Albo has passed that vague quality test of being seen as prime ministerial, at least as far as peeps being prepared to give him a go.
It’s Time says:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:38 pm
Hmmm, endorsement from a derelict politician who lost his own seat is probably not the help Deves was hoping for.
中华人民共和国
Wonder when John “The Angel of Death” Howard will be called in?
steve davis @ #467 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:39 pm
If Dutton manages to hold onto his seat, they’ll probably make him Opposition Leader in the short term – after all, the Morrison faction is trying to destroy the other factions, and Dutton is from the National Right faction. What better way to destroy the competition than to have them be the sacrificial leader following a landslide (in 2007, it was Brendan Nelson).
The Liberals don’t want Dutton. But they’ll be open to having him be leader for about a year, while they start building up their new leader from Morrison’s faction.
If Dutton loses, they’ll probably pick Dan Tehan, as the uncontroversial MP that can be the sacrificial leader.
Fancy that! Surely nothing to do with his precarious position in Kooyong?
BK @ #463 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:38 pm
That’s one thing you won’t see in the MSM. It would require many “journalists” to have something better than a goldfish’s memory, some analytical skills and even a bit of self-reflection.
It’s Time,
The Greens Party offers nothing of substance to the political debate. Their constant whinging, their unrealistic policies that are long on rhetoric and stunts but short on substance, and their delusional self righteousness is all they have got.
My hope is that Labor wins the Election outright and that there will be plenty of alternatives in the Senate that will enable Labor to implement their agenda. I’m sure Labor will work with those prepared to work with them.
I doubt the Greens Party is capable of acting responsibly in the best interests of all Australians..
“GlenOsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 11:37 am
nath @ #254 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 11:21 am
That’s why they are in a Coalition. Which the Labor party will have to eventually form with the Greens at some stage.
That’s not the way politics is currently heading.
More likely is that Labor will be competing against Greens, with the Liberal and National parties being minor parties that Labor may occasionally need the support of to form government.”
Sorry, Glenno, though I agree Nath is wrong like usual, I don’t see how you arrive at Labor and the Greens being the two major parties?
A quick look at 2016 and there are 43 seats where coalition led Labor by at least 20% on the 2PP – most of these with 50% plus primary votes. That is essentially 30% of all seats. Remember also that the Greens votes come back to Labor on more than an 80-20 basis and so the combined Labor / Greens vote in these places would almost always be less than 40%.
In what future world – and how – are a significant number of these seats going to all of a sudden return Labor or Green members?
As per the earlier discussion – the Greens will almost certainly emerge from this election with one seat whilst the Teals could end up snaring several wealthy inner city socially / environmentally progressive seats with Labor a chance in a few others.
Where are the Greens going to start winning the considerable number of seats required to be considered a “major party”?
The Teals phenomenon surely has more chance of morphing into a party of government than the Greens. It also has precedence.
I suspect you err by assuming that the country becoming more progressive overtime means that there will be correlating shift in voting based on a linear construct of the current party platforms.
History shows the Labor has become more progressive in advance the electorates it represents overall and that the right have splintered and reformed on a more progressive basis (after being taken over by reactionaries).
Taylormade @ #405 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 12:50 pm
Kean vs Morrison was this morning, you idiot.
Thier, thier.
Will Labor in government stop the flawed cosy relationship with “celebrity” journalists being fed on the drip & instil regular press briefings similar to the US model… gives the opportunity to control the appalling manners of some jurnos & keeps the public informed.
Do this for 3 years & Murdoch is finished.
DPRee at 1:36 pm
A pity there is not a matching one for SfM “Loser Unite”.
“Luigi Smithsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:39 pm
At the risk of inflaming the anglo, anglo-saxon, anglo-celtic dispute here, in his response to the question about having an Italian name, Albanese said:
“We’re a diverse country, and the fact that I have a non-Anglo-Celtic name, and so does our Senate leader as well, I think it sends a message out there hopefully to multicultural Australia that you can achieve anything in this country.””
Albo used the correct expression “anglo-celtic”. Anglo and particularly anglo-saxon to represent all people descended primarily from the Britain or Ireland is pretty obviously diminishing of Australia’s considerable minority from largely celtic stock
That’s naive sceptic.
Might be different candidates for the drip from the current drip recipients.
steve davis @ #469 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:39 pm
Well, if some of the less hard right are being defeated by Teals, the rump of the Libs will be hard right and natural Dutton supporters (if he is reelected). Otherwise the options are endless. Oops, i meant useless.
I just watched a short clip of Albo at his presser today. Looked a bit cocky to me.
Maybe it was just in that instant – and the rest of the presser was measured …?
“Scepticsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:46 pm
Will Labor in government stop the flawed cosy relationship with “celebrity” journalists being fed on the drip & instil regular press briefings similar to the US model… gives the opportunity to control the appalling manners of some jurnos & keeps the public informed.
Do this for 3 years & Murdoch is finished.”
Yep, I would do this and invite smaller and independent players.
I don’t know about “finished” but Labor should, at the margins, look for every opportunity to diminish not just murdoch/news but also 7 and 9
“During that time span, the Greens have gone from 0% of the votes to 13% in 2010 (that’s definitely growth, but is it “phenomenal”?) and then 10% in 2019 (negative growth from 2010… also known as going backwards, decreasing, etc.). The record to beat in 2022 is 13%….. Good luck!”
***
Greens House of Reps Primary Vote
2016: 1,385,650 | 10.23% (+1.58)
2019: 1,482,923 | 10.40% (+0.17)
Change: +97,273
Greens Senate Primary Vote
2016: 1,197,657 | 8.65% (-0.58)
2019: 1,488,427 | 10.19% (+1.57)
Change: +290,770
Labor House of Reps Primary Vote
2016: 4,702,296 | 34.73% (+1.35)
2019: 4,752,160 | 33.34% (-1.39)
Change: +49,864
Labor Senate Primary Vote
2016: 4,123,084 | 29.79% (+0.16)
2019 (Labor): 2,804,018 | 19.20% (-0.46)
2019 (Labor/Country Labor): 1,400,295 | 9.59% (-0.56)
Change: -81,229
Greens Change vs Labor Change (2016-19)
Greens House: +97,273
Labor House: +49,864
This is where Laborites may want to look away…
Greens Senate: +290,770
Labor Senate: -81,229
Sources
2016 House: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-20499-NAT.htm
2016 Senate: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-20499-NAT.htm
2019 House: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
2019 Senate: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm
BTW, the highest Labor primary vote ever was 50.9% all the way back at the 1914 Election. Labor’s primary vote in 2019 was 33.34%. Good luck… you’re going to need it.
Greensborough Growler @ #475 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:44 pm
The Greens Party props up Labor. Labor would never govern without them.
Labor would be electorally irrelevant without the Greens Party.
“GlenOsays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:43 pm
steve davis @ #467 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:39 pm
So if Frydbrain loses his seat will it be Dutton as OL?
If Dutton manages to hold onto his seat, they’ll probably make him Opposition Leader in the short term – after all, the Morrison faction is trying to destroy the other factions, and Dutton is from the National Right faction. What better way to destroy the competition than to have them be the sacrificial leader following a landslide (in 2007, it was Brendan Nelson).
The Liberals don’t want Dutton. But they’ll be open to having him be leader for about a year, while they start building up their new leader from Morrison’s faction.
If Dutton loses, they’ll probably pick Dan Tehan, as the uncontroversial MP that can be the sacrificial leader.”
Morrison’s faction is the smallest faction from what I’ve read.
It is hard to see how things don’t get really ugly for the right after they hopefully lose this election.
Looks like Labor has organised the emergency save KK in Fowler visit ( as predicted by Moi)
Albo visiting the Marconi club in Fairfield next Wednesday night.
LOTO if ALP win? Life imitating art – Wyatt?
The 5.1% thing is arguably the best wedge in my time watching Australian politics.
Will be a sad day for Morriscum if/as/.when he lose this election. 🙂
I really dont think he has much in the way of prospects post election. What business would want someone like him on their board? Lost the election, substantially because of his very public reputation among “his own” for being a psychopathic bully, liar and general all around dickhead?? No actual administrative skills or competence and no strategic vision. Outside of a partisan political context he just has no use, not even as a “revered party elder” since so many in his own party loath him to the extent they were willing to openly express that right up until the campaign started.
Upnorth @ #473 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:42 pm
Little Johnny is for those who are moving on, not for those who never made it in the first place.
The Revisionist @ #479 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:48 pm
The question raised earlier about Ed Husic.
I seem to recall that he was sworn in as a minister back in the RGR days. Still the first Muslim though
Here is my take on Queensland. I have taken a different view to most. I think the majority of people I know and that includes both sides of the Political equation have gone quite this time. i feel their maybe a great reset of 2019 like it did not happen.
People are over it this time, those on the right don’t even mention it or if they do want the election over and gone. If I am right what Labor came into the 2019 election with and lost by about 5% will reset and revert back to that starting point.
Then the momentum and Morrison’s ineptitude would see a swing of about 5% come out on paper as about 10%. A swing of more that 5% could equate to upwards of 12% on paper.
Fantasy maybe, but the fact that nobody is talking and I am on the Gold Coast tells me something is up. In McPherson Karen Andrews has a margin of 12.5%. Yet this week, she obviously panicked when a group of Palm Beach lobbyist got her to write to the Infrastructure Minister asking him to withdraw the funding for the Light Rail from Burleigh to the Airport and on to Coolangatta even though it had been approved by the Federal Government, State Government and Gold Coast City Council.
The total cost was about 2.7 Billion and was to be split the three ways. Ten days out from an Election tells me she is more than concerned. The Gold Coast Mayor a Liberal went off his tree when he found out.
The local rag The Gold Coast Bulletin , a Murdoch paper, headlines the next day ” WHAT A TRAIN WRECK “
imacca @ #491 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 1:56 pm
Maybe he sees a future as a NSW pentecostal faction backroom plotter and chief powerbroker.
imacca,
Television Evanagelist!
The antipodean version of Tammy and Jimmy Bakker.
Husic wasn’t in cabinet in 2013, but was a junior Minister.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 1:55 pm
Nice try Lars but popping down the road next week is hardly the desperate emergency measure you would like it to be. More like a courtesy visit to a neighbour.
You can get on Dai Le @ $4.00 with me if you like. Fools and their money are easily parted.