The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.
The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.
Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.
Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.
[Dandy Murraysays: Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:35 pm
This Aspen stuff… holy dooley.]
Pretty standard for the lnp – they have become so corrupt, given their donors so much money and yet the media won’t call them out.
@Dandy Murray-Honeydew
The Tassie spirits are an undiscovered joy for us mainlanders, the Vodka is perfect but very hard to find.
Also have a bit for Tassie wines, but again not easy to find here.
When I was there my proper tipple was Cascade lager or Wizard Smith Ale after I was roundly laughed, in nicest Hobart way, at at the New Sydney Hotel for drinking Boags…
C@tmomma @ #1395 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:33 pm
Yes, it is quite nice; very mild ginger. However I think it might be a short run product and may be difficult to find now.
If the LNP in get again on May 21, I expect another ABC raid in June in response to tonight’s 4 Corners.
There needs to be an inquiry into Endagine Maccas. And also into whether Scomo made up his own nickname.
If Labor wins the election I move that we change Williams’ official title from “Dear Leader” to “The Great Helmsman”.
If Labor loses well I got nothing.
Upnorth @ #1399 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:35 pm
Bundaberg Dark and Storny. It is a bit on the sweet side, if you like that.
I’m 39 (so can’t join the club) but will have a few drinks on election night – if the alp get up I’ll be celebrating for a while.
Kos Samaras
Hence, we are looking at 50 by-elections right across the country and hence why the major party vote is in the toilet, with only 3 weeks to go.
It’s all in the detail folks. Applying a national polling TPP evenly across all seats is grossly stupid.
And this
—–
Kos Samaras
Is this a COVID election? Yes. The consequences of the economic pain. That pain is not going to hit only the red but also the blue.
What are we seeing?
Swings against Labor in outer suburban seats. Swing against Liberals in outer suburban seats. Same demographic. 1/
Precarious workers who have historically voted Liberal, are now driving the swing against the Liberals in seats like Casey. Largely all to UAP and PHON. The same with Labor in their outer suburban seats.
Their voting habits may be different. But they are the same 2/
The protest vote is not against government but the system. The major parties. If you have voted Labor all your life and had your life turned upside down during lockdowns, you will rebel against them. Same applies with the Liberals.
It does not matter who ordered the lockdown. 3/
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1402 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:39 pm
Were you unaware of the demarcation line across the middle of Tasmania? Boags to the north, Cascade to the south.
@UpNorth
I can second that motion for the title change for Dear Leader William.
Woke-pc-thug @ #1408 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:41 pm
That’s the spirit (or brew).
“Bundaberg Ginger Beer and Bundaberg Rum mixed is delightful and good for the health. Apparently..”
It clearly requires further study. Scientific rigour demands repeated testing. I’m professionally bound.
My typical sugarcane champagne shandy involves Buderim ginger cordial and sparking water. Yes, I have fancy tastes for a descendent of the Arch Bishop of Goondiwindi.
As usual – Kon says things and nothing at all at the same time, lol.
Jt1983
Yes. There is that. Lol!
It’s Time says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:43 pm
Were you unaware of the demarcation line across the middle of Tasmania? Boags to the north, Cascade to the south.
____________________
Not until then hence the shenanigans! But I was quickly converted after discovering all the hidden Cascade beers in Hobart.
In hindsight I should have just got a Carlton Draught of VB and been sent on the first Spirit back to Vic
BTRProducer says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:43 pm
@UpNorth
I can second that motion for the title change for Dear Leader William.
========================
I guess in three weeks we will know – or maybe not.
Like I said a few weeks ago – UAP and One Nation preferences will be all over the place like a crazy persons’ shit. Postals will be massive. We may not know who has won for some time.
What’s this 41 threshold thingy?
What about a 40 + 11 months + 2-and-a-bit weeks?
C@t
Frydenberg threw his moderate credentials away when he led the get Dan Andrews brigade through the pandemic, undermining every measure, at the top of his voice. I used to live in that electorate and he’s not even dogshit on Petro Georgiou’s shoe – who I still owe a portrait for putting the job network in its place many years ago. My case worker was never in the office after he called.
Frydenberg is a hectoring blowhard, and, in my opinion anyway, it looks like hes gone
Election Night Traditions? Not sure where they came from, but after initial joy and despair in 93 and 96, they have coalesced to the following:
Antony Green on the TV
Lebanese takeaway – was difficult when living in the UK
Fortified wine – unsurprisingly easy in the UK
How about you?
Dandy Murray-Honeydew says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:49 pm
What’s this 41 threshold thingy?
What about a 40 + 11 months + 2-and-a-bit weeks?
=======================
Well if your over 18 and can vote I guess your in the Club! Beer, Wine, Cider – Softdrink. Anything as long as we can slag off Tories.
Not reported in media are the details of RC’s into Aged Care
Instead we get “all recommendations will be implemented and we will spend $xyz”
Coverage terminated
With the privately run St Basil’s, the Inquiry detailed that surge staff, for which the Federal Government paid billions, just were not available when required
So the money paid – but nothing delivered
Plus that the Industry had no defence protocols in the event of any incidence of infection – let alone a pandemic
These were privately owned businesses under the responsibility of the Federal Government (from Santoro and Howard giving bed licences to their mates)
State run facilities had no problems
Hence the Inquiry recommendation that the State take responsibility which the Report noted had already happened by State action given the deaths
But Morrison was going to spend money – so all is well
And it is the State governments which were at fault
When I was at school I’d get jobs during the holidays, like Christmas – builders labourer (life saver factory at Lane Cove, 1 pound/hr, 40 quid a week, bit of trouble when the rep came on site), landscape gardening labourer (top dressing new grass at Sylvania Waters, remember Sylvania Waters, they made a TV show, ugly as). I liked having my own money. One year it was at the Redfern Mail Exchange, night shift. Throwing Christmas cards to South Australia down the Victoria slot at 3am. So, they asked me down to Broadway near Railway Sq for a few beers at the Early Opener. I hadn’t got my licence yet, so couldn’t have been 16. I had three schooners on an empty stomach at 6 in the morning. That was the last time I drank beer.
Cascade stout goes alright. Do they still make it? If not, Coopers of course.
In a nutshell
—-
Van badam
“So Aspen has failed aged care homes, the defence force, and failed the prison system…?”
“It’s got a former Howard government Liberal health minister advising the board, though.”
“Oh, okay! Give them a billion dollars. No tender required.”
#4corners
Thanks, subgeometer. It’s hard to tell from far away sometimes just how on the nose a Local Member is.
Griff says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:51 pm
Election Night Traditions?
________________
For me it is Beer and fizzy wine, but my recently discovered stash of fortified wine will come out as it is 50+ years old.
Snacks depend on the number of visitors, last time it was pizza and fried chicken, this year, probable mini sausage rolls and mixed Chinese spring rolls, sesame prawn and so on
And of course AG on the TV, PB on the PC and a good supply of Benzos if the result goes south.
Itza,
I often muse that the show ‘Sylvania Waters’ is what drew Scott Morrison to want to represent Cook.
18 years and over, that seems very fair to me, only criteria is an alcoholic beverage of any sort- whatever you enjoy on an election night.
C@tmomma @ #1429 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:57 pm
Scotty the aspirational.
The whole health, aged and child care systems need a royal commission and over haul – if private companies are putting profit over care then we need to get government to provide these services.
The last time I drank Southern Comfort Bourbon was on the ferry at the Year 12 farewell. 😉
Happy Days C@t. We’ve had fun.
Griff says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:55 pm
Cascade stout goes alright. Do they still make it? If not, Coopers of course.
___________________
I found Cascade lager just the thing, so much so on subsequent visits would fill the boot with a few slabs to take home from the big bottle’o in Devenport just down the road from the ferry terminal
On the boat, a few bottles of Wizard Smith for fun
ItzaDream says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:55 pm
When I was at school I’d get jobs during the holidays, like Christmas – builders labourer (life saver factory at Lane Cove, 1 pound/hr, 40 quid a week, bit of trouble when the rep came on site), landscape gardening labourer (top dressing new grass at Sylvania Waters, remember Sylvania Waters, they made a TV show, ugly as). I liked having my own money. One year it was at the Redfern Mail Exchange, night shift. Throwing Christmas cards to South Australia down the Victoria slot at 3am. So, they asked me down to Broadway near Railway Sq for a few beers at the Early Opener. I hadn’t got my licence yet, so couldn’t have been 16. I had three schooners on an empty stomach at 6 in the morning. That was the last time I drank beer.
=========================
Legend – same as Fanta and Vodka for me. Even the smell of Fanta gets me heaving.
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:01 pm
The best way to travel! 🙂
Woke-pc-thug says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:59 pm
The whole health, aged and child care systems need a royal commission and over haul – if private companies are putting profit over care then we need to get government to provide these services.
_______________________
The next thing is the whole welfare and job network reorganisation, after July 1, all the providers will be from “For Profits” so yet another example of profits before people.
I so hope labor has a plan to look at all of this
Media Watch goes hard on the biased coverage against the Teal Independents.
“Now, we’re certainly not saying that independent candidates and Climate 200 should be immune from scrutiny.
But when news reporters and columnists of one of the country’s most powerful media groups echo the Liberal Party’s concerted attack on them, something is very wrong.”
https://twitter.com/i/status/1521090507291893760
What’s with the Liberals and Chinese ansd money?
“Chinese mining magnate and major Liberal Party donor Sally Zou failed to pay millions in commissions after dishonestly telling a business partner her company had $US18.6bn ($26.35bn) in the bank and she personally had access to $US120m, a court has heard.
Anthony Smyth is seeking reparations for lost earnings and damages, arguing Ms Zou struck deals with him and related parties to trade commodities including coal with companies including Glencore – but failed to honour her commitments.
Ms Zou is a major donor to the Liberal Party. In the 2020 financial year, she gave $182,755 to the South Australian division and $130,568 to the federal branch.
Despite her largesse, little is known about Ms Zou, who once established the Julie Bishop Glorious Foundation and later became a major sponsor of the Port Adelaide Football Club.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-magnate-sally-zou-claimed-to-be-worth-more-than-18bn-but-failed-to-pay-bills-court-hears/news-story/b82e47843f7a0c4cc146acd893eee93d
中华人共和国
Out at Pagewood last week to watch our son’s First XI debut, I was at the canteen for a pie and softie at kick off.
Our centre back is red carded in first minute so I upgraded to my first beer in five years.
Lost 1-6.
https://twitter.com/Mon4Kooyong/status/1520972672523399168
Dr Monique Ryan @Mon4Kooyong
We hear the Herald Sun is digging for dirt among my former colleagues at the Royal Children’s Hospital.
Hey Herald Sun, stop wasting their time. Leave these people alone so they can get on with saving the lives of children. #auspol
This is disgusting….
Upnorth says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:02 pm
=========================
Legend – same as Fanta and Vodka for me. Even the smell of Fanta gets me heaving.
_______________
Ohh Geez, thats almost making me hurl now.
However I got so sick on bundy that I cant smell the stuff now. Other disasters include Passion Pop – just the thing for teenagers and West Coast Cooler at the Chevron.
In contrast, I had too many black russians one new years I passed out and missed it all and still like a good vodka.
Upnorth @ #1436 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 10:02 pm
UDL. Vodka and Passionfruit. At Luna Park!
I got caught with a bottle of Stones Green Ginger Wine in my locker at school once. We were just up the road from all the old Rocks pubs, open all hours, that would serve anyone, any time of the day, as they were also the first port of call for any seafarers and wharfies. And naughty schoolgirls. 😉
I also had a time in my life when I and a few of my friends would go to the old Centrepoint Tavern after school and order Fluffy Ducks. Or to the cocktail bar on the corner of George and Park Street, where I discovered Black Russians and Manhattans and Martinis.
And then it all just kind of…stopped. Been there, done it, moved on to the next ‘experience’. 🙂
Up until a few years ago, you would still find those that would crack a brew on the Manly Ferry on the way home after work. A bit of Sydney that is going. Gone perhaps?
Even a bloke from Melbourne (born in Adelaide) would be willing to cover a song that mentions those ferry trips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KtFJJgpVmI
One too many Grasshoppers when my uncle was behind the bar mixing drinks for everyone at Xmas one year saw me spend most of my time in the bathroom wishing I was dead. 😆
Out of 151 seats, I reckon only about 30 are going to be none traditional TTP counts. That is still a doubling compared to last time but it won’t be 50 seats.
Lest we forget. Coopers is the brewery Abbott went to after the Power Lines blew over in SA because Labor and got all shirt fronty about Energy and stuff, and how nice private enterprises like Coopers needed guaranteed power, so Labor boo, except Coopers already had their own backup, the only joint south of the gibber desert that kept the lights on.
ALL essential services should be public. While a few ‘layabouts’ might waste a little money, it is nothing compared to the profiteering that exists when private sector ‘for profits’ take the reins.
It’s pure logic that if all things remain the same but the profiteering requires e.g. 10% of the funds involved — then that means only 90% funding goes to the target service, ergo service is reduced.
Happened with everything from the Commonwealth Bank, to nursing homes to qantas. Service delivery has suffered … and the profit-takers just get greedier and skim off more.
When govt ministers are involved in the process … and profit a well … you’re encouraging corruption. Big time. This govt is the absolute worst in my memory (not from Qld and was too young to know much about Bjielke-Petersen era).
Privatisation is a scourge.