Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15

The Coalition’s primary vote weakens still further in the latest Resolve Strategic poll, despite a change in questionnaire options that halves the result for independents.

The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.

Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15”

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  1. Bourbon and coke. Raspberry vodka. Neither shall pass these lips again.

    Then there’s Unicum. From wiki:

    The texture of the drink is “thick, black, goopy” and so bitter that it is often described as an acquired taste.[3] The drink’s name originates from the words of Holy Roman Emperor Joseph II, who in 1790, when being given the drink, said (in German) “Das ist ein Unikum!” (“This is unique!”).[4][5]

    Knocked off a bottle of it the night David Cameron beat Gordon Brown. Spent a week cursing Tories and Hungarians.

  2. Worst beer/cocktail experiences have all been in Sydney.

    Was working at the uni, drinking $2 vodka and oranges, all good till I passed out in the toilet for a couple of hours, found the train home, passed out again and did two trips on the east hills line. Well value for money anyhow.

    Second disaster, Cat and Fiddle hotel, happy hours, schooners of Coopers, many schooners, too many, home OK as was only 4 min walk but still pissed trying to get the train about 4 hours later. On the plus side I did actually get a part-time job there, good as the uni pay was pretty woeful.

  4. And

    The story goes like this: the brewery is owned by the Coopers family, who have been long time donors to the Bible Society along with other religious and conservative groups (including being one of the largest donors to the SA Liberal Party).

    And

    And thus they celebrated their relationship with the Bible Society by putting out a commemorative beer celebrating 200 years of the Society. And the way the Bible Society put it, it was an actual partnership.

    According to their “Keeping It Light” page, “Bible Society Australia has teamed up with Coopers Premium Light to ask Australians to try “Keeping it Light” – a creative campaign to reach even more Australians with God’s word”.

    But

    Accompanying this little statement was a video of a conversation between MPs Tim Wilson and Andrew Hastie in which they outlined their positions on marriage equality (Wilson is pro, Hastie is anti), and then agreed that other people are doing the marriage equality debate wrong and that Q&A is terrible, while drinking Coopers Light in Parliament House because presumably this is good use of their publicly supported time.

    Read on:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/beers-and-bibles-how-coopers-created-their-own-pr-disaster-20170313-guwrww.html

  8. Joining the list of horror stories for alcohol abuse, I would add that in my early 20s, one night drinking nothing but vodka & oranges and another night drinking rum & cokes, but both nights resulting in me being beyond sick as death, means to this day I cannot consume either beverage – or smell rum – without wanting to vomit.

    In my early 3os I had a work Christmas party where I consumed over $70 worth of glasses of the cheap house white ($3.50 a glass) and ended up needing a knee reconstruction following an attempt that night to perform a brand new dance move I like to call “The Drunk Fool”.

    Interesting times.

  9. Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:19 pm

    Unicum is a gift of the Gods!

    Not all Gods are kind 😉

  13. It would appear that some here present weren’t exactly role models for the virtue of temperance in their younger days…

  14. Guy @ Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:22 pm

    You’re welcome! There must be a better copy somewhere. I agree, a brilliant rendition.

  17. No Griff, it’s the liquid you find at the bottom of the composter when you’ve put in too much fruit and it goes putrid.

  19. Chip Le Grand in The Age joining in the “save our Joshy Boy from that evil Monique Ryan” campaign as befits the Age’s Chief Herald Sun Correspondent. Must have just noticed the memo in the Herald-Sun on the weekend.

    @jt1983 —
    “As usual – Kon says things and nothing at all at the same time, lol.”

    Yeah, Kos Samaras has some good insights, better than most, definitely worth listening to, but it would be a big mistake to think either that he’s always right or that he’s giving the whole story in public Tweets.

  20. @BTRProducer

    Work dos with alcohol, especially free should be banned

    In about ’99 i was invited to a do at a premier Liberal party doner legal firm in Melbourne by a very new associate friend, all good and alot of free booze, was fine for me as I met a very nice librarian who offered to show me the CLR reports and other interesting things which I obliged but my friend got horribly drunk.

    When trying to take said person home I was physically assaulted by yet another drunk associate who claimed it was my fault – this was at a top at firm mind you.

    I made a complaint and got a nice apology from the managing partner but didnt want to make a fuss to support my friend.

    For some reason as I was the guest

  21. C@t

    I’m not in Vic these days, but I noticed his strident rants from Sydney, an seen other people reference them, and they were pretty tough times down there thru the lockdowns, so it’s perhaps not as bad as being associated with Clive Palmer in WA, but I think people in Kew etc will remember

  22. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:11 pm

    I got caught with a bottle of Stones Green Ginger Wine in my locker at school once. We were just up the road from all the old Rocks pubs, open all hours, that would serve anyone, any time of the day, as they were also the first port of call for any seafarers and wharfies. And naughty schoolgirls.

    I also had a time in my life when I and a few of my friends would go to the old Centrepoint Tavern after school and order Fluffy Ducks. Or to the cocktail bar on the corner of George and Park Street, where I discovered Black Russians and Manhattans and Martinis.

    And then it all just kind of…stopped. Been there, done it, moved on to the next ‘experience’.
    ======================
    C@t the rebel!!!

  23. Arky @ Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:38 pm

    “Yeah, Kos Samaras has some good insights, better than most, definitely worth listening to, but it would be a big mistake to think either that he’s always right or that he’s giving the whole story in public Tweets.”

    Morrison thinks there is gold in them thar outer urban Sydney suburbs. But methinks Labor is outmanoeuvring him.

    We shall see.

  25. Dandy Murray-Honeydew says:
    Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:26 pm

    Can I just reiterate how much you all should avoid Unicum. Learn from my mistakes.
    ===================
    I graduated from Uni many years ago – so I am safe.

  27. The Liberals are so shit scared of the teals it is wonderful. The bits on media watch were perfect.

    The odious Credain echoing the party line about “those are rightfully ours ” in the inds targeting liberal seats summed up the entitlement mentality.

    The liberals losing the teal seats is just as good as a Labor win for me.

  28. Greenway should be added to Hunter, Shortland, Gilmore, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro on the list of seats that can be won through the Deves Gambit.

    Would not be surprised if Coalition ended up with north of 80 seats.

  29. Dandy Murray-Honeydew @ Monday, May 2, 2022 at 10:47 pm

    It might be made from organic matter. I think we can go that far.

    If you ever find yourself in an obligatory toast in Hungary, opt for the pálinka instead! 😉

    Edit: grammar

  30. It would appear that some here present weren’t exactly role models for the virtue of temperance in their younger days…

    Live and learn.

    Not judging. I wasn’t a great one myself. Still aren’t.

  31. Expat, I probably have same issue as you, I get really ill with any alcohol … migraine in minutes … I call it alcohol intolerance

  33. Steve777 @ #1479 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 10:56 pm

    It would appear that some here present weren’t exactly role models for the virtue of temperance in their younger days…

    Live and learn.

    Not judging. I wasn’t a great one myself. Still aren’t.

    I was very innocent myself. When I was 19 (Have I heard that phrase before somewhere…) I was in a northern NSW town staying in the Pub. The publican’s 16 year old daughter – a very pretty blonde – took a shine to me (Must have been my virtue and innocence and the fact that I had blondish hair back in those days). One Sunday morning (pub was closed Sundays) she decided that she should practice pouring beers. Don’t remember much of it, I was carried to my room at some stage. The last and only time I couldn’t walk away after a little sipping of beers 🙂 Drink Cider now…

  34. @Freya Stark – I see the coherent Freya from earlier has been replaced by the stumbling drunk convinced that the Liberal Party has a powerful weapon even as it refuses to let that weapon talk in public and gives every impression that in fact the weapon is a backfire that it may not be allowed to simply dump overboard (what with it being the PM’s own pick) but desperately fucking wants to.

    At least the idea of Dan Andrews being a drag on certain seats is believed by the Liberal Party itself given their advertising (notwithstanding, as the recently mentioned Kos Samaras points out, Andrews’ popularity and margin over the Liberals statewide is significantly better than Albanese and the margin over the Feds) – even the Liberal Party fever dreams don’t believe Deves is an asset.

  35. Given that Alan Jones called the election for Labor, I’m pretty confident Labor has it in the bag with a majority.

  36. “The protest vote is not against government but the system….
    Hence, we are looking at 50 by-elections right across the country and hence why the major party vote is in the toilet, with only 3 weeks to go.
    It’s all in the detail folks. Applying a national polling TPP evenly across all seats is grossly stupid.”

    I think Kos is being overly dramatic;
    – Its always been stupid to apply a TPP evenly across all seats, nobody expects it to be even, its still useful for looking at trends as to the overall result.
    – Protest voters dont ‘tune out’, they use their vote more wisely.
    – People cant protest vote against ‘the system’, it will only be reflected in primaries, it will still comes down to LNP vs ALP in 90+% of seats.
    – The more the vote is shaken up, the more it will benefit the party with the highest 2PP, its ‘established’ predictable voting patterns that facilitate campaigns and media to game the system.

    I doubt we have ever seen this much strength in the new independent challengers, that can be fairly described as a vote against the system, im sure that can be measured even in non-teal seats, so im sure he is seeing it. But expecting ’50 by-elections’ (1 in 3 seats) is grossly stupid (to use his own words).

    I think Labor and friends are fighting to maintain a belief its a close contest, and are practicing their surprised look if its the highest 2PP vote the ALP has ever seen. (53.1% IIRC)

  40. bug1

    Yes I expect soon The Australian to abandon their “Morrison surging ahead in popularity” angle, and pivot to “Labor looking likely to win … unless you voters keep them out and especially not elect any independents in Liberal seats”

    I actually like the “Morrison goes further ahead as preferred PM” headlines when they are accompanied by polling showing the Coalition are standing still or going backwards.

    I think it has been very revealing that the Herald-Sun has had very few overtly political covers over the last week or so (with the exception of the “JoshKeeper” love-in!) – in a really close contest they would be hammering Labor and Albanese every day in the cover story.

  43. This election is so unpredictable with so many unknowns thrown into it.

    I keep coming back to the same question – why does it matter if the major party vote slumps when 100% of preferences come back to either Labor or Coalition in most seats?

  44. Morgan polls are about as believable as a pot-bellied man in a MAGA hat trying to convince me that the sun rises from the west.

    It’s time to do some marginal seat polls.

  45. Dunno where Morgan gets its WA samples from but I do not believe those numbers for a minute (nor Qld or Vic for that matter — all just implausible extremes).

  46. @bug1 I agree entirely.

    The Teal vote isn’t even a vote against the system, it’s a vote from a middle ground frustrated that the Liberals have moved to the right away from them and not fully comfortable yet to vote 1 Labor.

    The major parties, especially Labor, do need to watch out for the rise of frustrated voters who feel abandoned by the system. We can already see the Liberals and Murdoch will go fully Trumpy to try and harness them even more than they already have. But the tide is not there at this election specifically. Unless it is sparked by a big interest rate rise…

  47. Just finished watching watching 4 corners and it highlights to me that:

    1. For profit companies will almost always provide an inferior level of service where people require care (compared to an equally funded not for profit provider), and this is especially so when they are in receipt of a Government contract.
    2. That the need for a federal ICAC is urgent.
    3. That the LNP will be damned out of existence should a robust Federal ICAC be established.

  48. Arky

    Arguably Labor has done better at following their flock, or maybe ‘herding’ them. The ALP has been around for 130 years, and has outlived

    Protectionists
    Free Traders
    Liberal (the original)
    Nationalist
    UAP (the original and an actual party that held power)

    All of these failed/morphed into other parties for various reasons. While the ALP has obviously had its problems and some dramatic splits, the core of the party has moved with the times to be either the Federal Government or Opposition for more than 115 years.

    Not to mention the many state and territory Labor governments in that time also.

  49. @hazza:
    “I keep coming back to the same question – why does it matter if the major party vote slumps when 100% of preferences come back to either Labor or Coalition in most seats?”

    The snap answer is “the Senate”, the longer answer is that in the lower house it may not matter yet but if you ignore it you wake up one morning and you’re like France where the Socialist Party of Mitterrand and Hollande, and the variously named conservative party of Chirac and Sarkozy, are all so much mulch underneath the feet of Macron, Le Pen and Melenchon, centrist, hard right and hard left groupings which better spoke to the population than the less extreme left and right parties that once dominated. It only takes one election for the balance to tip.

  50. @Rocket – this is not a period of time where I feel that comforted by history in general, not that I’ve ever been that comforted by a history of being good at being the opposition. Labor has been sustained through that history by a labor movement which has never been so weak in membership as it is now, and a working class vote which has never been less interested in what Labor is selling than it is now.

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