Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15

The Coalition’s primary vote weakens still further in the latest Resolve Strategic poll, despite a change in questionnaire options that halves the result for independents.

The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.

Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15”

Comments Page 1 of 31
1 2 … 31

  1. Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the results, a key difference from some other surveys.

    The latest survey included a significant change in the questions asked of respondents following the formal declaration of candidates by the Australian Electoral Commission on April 22. With candidates now known, the survey asked respondents about their support by naming candidates as well as parties as they appear on the ballot paper.

    Primary support for the Coalition fell from 35 to 33 per cent as a result of a 2 per cent fall in support for the Liberals while the Nationals held their vote steady at 4 per cent nationwide.

    While independent candidates are taking on Liberals with high-profile campaigns in key city seats, support for independents nationwide fell from 9 to 4 per cent nationwide as the poll restricted the number of seats where they are offered as an option.

  3. The previous resolve poll PPM was:
    Morrison 38, Albo 30, Undecided 32

    This week:
    Morrison 39, Albo 33, Undecided 28

    So 4% out of the 32% undecided made a decision, and broke 3 to 1 in favour of Albo

  7. Having a brief look at the “which party is best to handle x” questions, it also seems to be a reduction in undecideds who are mostly going to Labor.

  10. Perhaps the increased Greens vote is because people have seen their Greens candidate name and recognised it from campaign material. Could well be important, especially for younger voters.

    It could also be those who previously would have said independent but now realise there isn’t one in their seat so have gone with the Greens.

    This would be consistent with the reduced Independent vote

  14. I think this is a scary result for the coalition. Even though Labour did not regain the lost ground in primary vote, the expected continued decline from the first two weeks did not materialise. Also Albo did not stuff up the campaign launch (even though I don’t think they will get a lot of bounce out of it either). The point now is that we have to wait for the next polls overnight and on Tuesday, but if after that the tpp consolidate at 54 46 less than 3 weeks from election day, it will require a much bigger miracle for Scomo to get in.

  16. Resolve poll is the coalition version of Morgan poll , with the opposite result

    Morgan poll is good for Labor

    If the lib/nats combined primary vote is near 33% on election day

    The lib/nats are looking at under 50 seats in the house of reps

  18. Torchbearer says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 6:02 pm

    Q: Cricket at the Gabba for the Olympics – bloody oath – bring it on

    The Gabba is hosting Track and Field and the Ceremonies…..

    Cricket and Rugby League are not played in enough countries for the Olympics, there is a ‘universality’ clause.
    =======================================
    Yes like Synchronised Swimming. Go Valleys!

  19. can the same poll produce 34-33 nationwide but 40-30 in NSW… it just seems hard to reconcile that (what you would need to believe elsewhere for that to compute)

    what would be a 2PP flow guestimate of 15% green and 18% other??? I can see ALP picking up the same proportion of green that the coalition do of other (pretty right and centr-right dominated)?

    i could only dream that Reid comes down to one vote, ie mine!

  21. Remember ALP, when you win, say the word MANDATE a lot.
    Thanks Australia for this MANDATE to govern. A MANDATE to change the country for the better, a MANDATE to make Australia a fair place for all.

    Say the word until it starts to sound odd. And then act like kings and change the country for the better.

  22. Nice summary of the campaign launch from Murphy.

    Vote for Morrison and you’ll be stuck with stretched government services the Coalition won’t commit to fixing. You’ll be stuck with the climate wars that never end, and you’ll be stuck with your flat wages and your rising prices and an economy that doesn’t work for you.

    That was pitch one: you know Morrison is out of tricks, out of time and out of luck, so it’s time to vote him out. This election is a choice “between shaping the future or being shaped by it”.

    Pitch two was about the role of government. On that score, Albanese argues Labor knows how to plan, Labor knows how to build the policy architecture of the future, Labor knows about the caring and essential services economy that kept us alive over the past couple of years, and cares enough to make it stronger.

    Labor cares enough to take an equity stake in a house you can’t afford to buy to give you a shot of moving past renting. Labor cares enough about women to give them a shot at pay equity. Government, in this pitch, is presented as a partnership with people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/01/anthony-albanese-presents-as-a-leader-who-wasnt-born-thinking-he-was-owed-the-prime-ministership?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  27. nath @ #902 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 5:29 pm

    yabba says:

    Why are you so intimidated by Mensa? All it indicates is an ability to think straight.
    ____________
    Mensa is the worst kind of pompous snobbery.
    _____________________________
    You have no idea whatsoever. Local Mensa has virtually nothing to do with any International society, except to apply the same rules for membership. That said, I have attended social events arranged by Mensa groups in London, Edinburgh and Toronto, and found them to be very similar to the Sydney group.

    In my personal experience it is simply a social club within which I have built up a circle of good friends, and can go to a dinner and drinks evening, a film evening, a bushwalk, or an event for kids with my grandkids, and be certain that I will meet others with a broad range of interests with whom I can have conversations which range a bit further than the weather, Joe’s last operation or the price of real estate. Some of them have really esoteric specialisations, like me, and quite a few like DA’s Friday cryptic.

    We have even been known to get into metaphysics or econometrics or astronomy.

    Nothing that would interest you. Really snobbish.

  29. Thanks Rocket!

    I’ve been a reader here since about 2017 but only just joined now as keen to make contributions and add to the debate.

    I’m from northern Adelaide, pretty safe Labor seat. I’m on the Left and have voted Labor, Green and Independent across various federal and state elections.

    Yes looks like a slew of polls over the next few days. Still waiting on an Essential?

  30. The Cons would be very glum with a PV so low whereas although Labor’s PV is not much better, the upwards of 80% (could be more this time around) first preferences of the Greens will brighten the dial of Labor supporters. And I’m predicting tonight’s Newspoll to be 53/47. I would add that in the few Labor ads I’ve viewed (I rarely watch free-to-air), there’s room for improvement.

  31. Scott @ #16 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 6:28 pm

    Resolve poll is the coalition version of Morgan poll , with the opposite result

    Morgan poll is good for Labor

    If the lib/nats combined primary vote is near 33% on election day

    The lib/nats are looking at under 50 seats in the house of reps

    From memory, William use to say the Morgan was skewed about 1-1.5% towards ALP and resolve the other way.

    As the Greens appear up, I think this may be Libs that can’t stand Morrison. Might send their preference back to libs, so perhaps only ~70% of Greens preference to ALP?

  32. Mavis – I watch next to no free to air TV, bar sport that’s not on Kayo (which is basically nothing).

    Haven’t seen one single election ad from either side on TV.

  35. SA Bludger

    Yes everyone expects Newspoll some time tonight, and I am also expecting Guardian Essential.

    Would love there to be a ‘triple whammy’ of three polls all 53-47 or 54-46, combined with discussion of Labor’s launch, to occupy the media tomorrow.

    And most importantly I need to get up before 6am to see Jupiter and Venus very close together (was good a week ago with also Mars and Saturn in a line) and I think I have missed the closest morning which was yesterday or today. But still very spectacular as they are the two brightest planets.

  36. The best Labor ad on TV is the one featuring Morrison saying repeatedly ‘not my job’. Very good.

  37. 80% green prefs flowing to ALP is a safe rule of thumb?

    i imagine PHON, UAP would be 80% to coalition?

    teal, xenophon and other centrish i would guess ~60% to coalition?

    i dunno about you guys, but how much confidence can one have in extrapolating 34-33 primary to 53-47 2PP…

  38. Scott at 6.28pm

    My recollection is Resolve is the most Coalition-leaning poll. Others may contradict that.

    Given my recollection, this may be the first indication of polling DURING this campaign showing a movement towards Labor – which I find exciting.

    The past 3 weeks have seen polls either stable or ‘narrowing’.

    The most delicious thing: the most Coalition-leaning pollster gives the Coalition a disastrous 2PP of 46%.

    Here’s a thought bubble: what if a combination of ‘ordinary’ Albo, leading a competent, unified and disciplined team is more of an electoral positive than can be measured by ‘presidential’ metrics like PPM? What if the electorate is saying a big NO to Morrison’s Coalition and a modest YES to Albo’s Labor? Can we have a landslide without a massively charismatic leader?

  41. Mavis @ #30 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 6:38 pm

    The Cons would be very glum with a PV so low whereas although Labor’s PV is not much better, the upwards of 80% (could be more this time around) first preferences of the Greens will brighten the dial of Labor supporters. And I’m predicting tonight’s Newspoll to be 53/47. I would add that in the few Labor ads I’ve viewed (I rarely watch free-to-air), there’s room for improvement.

    I think it will be better than 53/47, just don’t know by how much.

  43. @Expat – there’s a good breakdown done by AGreen about preference flows.

    Labor generally receives 60-65% of preferences overall. 80% of GRN, 35%-ish PHON/UAP and 50% of the rest.

  45. @Expat – there’s a good breakdown done by AGreen about preference flows.

    Labor generally receives 60-65% of preferences overall. 80% of GRN, 35%-ish PHON/UAP and 50% of the rest.

  47. Go Valleys indeed!!! The diehards and gladiators of the old BRL. I can still remember the 1970 grand final. I was also at the ground when Gough walked out with McCauliffe of course I cheered.

  48. I do hope Slomo was doing something important which has been completed overshadowed by the Deves dash. Poetic justice.

  49. If Labor improves in Newspoll I can just see The Australian saying it was because Albanese was shown up by his shadow ministers during his isolation.

Comments Page 1 of 31
1 2 … 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *