Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15

The Coalition’s primary vote weakens still further in the latest Resolve Strategic poll, despite a change in questionnaire options that halves the result for independents.

The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.

Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.

Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.

Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15”

Comments Page 2 of 31
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  1. Very bouncy, it has;
    LNP primary increasing from 34 on 41 in QLD
    ALP primary increasing from 35 on 41 in NSW

    Not reading anything into those state breakdowns, im sure someone will see it as ‘the narrowing’ in QLD.

  2. David Crowe is one minute Arthur, the next minute Martha. But all the while a Phillip Coorey-style Gemaylist in the Australian sense.

  3. SA Bludger says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 6:30 pm

    Hi all – (very) long time lurker, first time poster. Just testing that this works for me! Cheers.
    ==================
    Welcome cobber. Good to see a Crow Eater here – there are a few others. The Mexicans have been at each others throat all day by you South Aussies are far more urbane.

    We are planning a big PB knees up in Adelaide at some stage so expect you to attend.

    Don’t be scared of posting mate no matter what the Mexicans are up to, just stay out of their knife fights cobber.

  4. SA Bludger @ #29 Sunday, May 1st, 2022 – 6:37 pm

    Thanks Rocket!

    I’ve been a reader here since about 2017 but only just joined now as keen to make contributions and add to the debate.

    I’m from northern Adelaide, pretty safe Labor seat. I’m on the Left and have voted Labor, Green and Independent across various federal and state elections.

    Yes looks like a slew of polls over the next few days. Still waiting on an Essential?

    Just returned from the Para area. Is X as popular as his quantity of signage would indicate?

  5. @bug – my issue with Resolve (and Morgan) – polls don’t naturally shift that violently that quickly without a significant EVENT.

  7. SA Bludger:

    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 6:41 pm

    [‘Mavis – I watch next to no free to air TV, bar sport that’s not on Kayo (which is basically nothing).

    Haven’t seen one single election ad from either side on TV.’]

    I saw one today, posted on this site. It had Morrison’s head superimposed – it seemed rather amateur. I think Labor adds should go to the very questionable character of Morrison, as well as
    highlighting how Labor will improve the lot of the descamisado.

  11. thanks jt… ALP gets 35% of PHON and UAP – i would never have guessed that

    imagine the ~80% green is a longstanding trend over many elections thus reliable, i suppose the PHON number could be so as well

    i shall go read Anthony Green’s blog

  12. Cheers Upnorth! Keep me informed.

    It’s Time – you mean the X posters where he is wearing black looking like a serial killer?!

    To be honest it’s hard to know. He’d have more facial recognition than Albanese here probably. There’s a definite “pox on both their houses” vibe here so it wouldn’t surprise if he did okay.

    Morrison very unpopular in SA though, and still a waft of the Malinauskas wave in the air. Labor will win Boothby. Sturt will stay LNP despite some talk of it dropping.

  14. Labor’s final ads should just be Barnaby’s text messages on repeat. Go straight to the core of it.

  15. Hey everyone. Another very long time lurker (probably been reading this blog since it was part of Crikey all those years ago!) and first time poster. Have enjoyed reading everyone’s contributions for years now. Just wanted to poke my head above the wall and say Hi. ☺

    Very keen to see an ALP Government elected on May 21. I still remember that night in November 2007 when Rudd got up. Was at a “Roast The Pollies” BBQ and got very drunk that night. Such a good evening.

    Here’s hoping for an Ablo (yes, I too remember the Rudd2000 Twitter account) landslide in 3 weeks. I will be joining folks here in the getting blind drunk event for the night.

  16. Welcome SA Bludger.

    You’re in good Bludger company over there.

    You would have enjoyed McGowan’s comedy piece re Mali today.

  18. Difficult thing with this poll is that Resolve has changed its method of calculating PV and prefs from the previous method that had a bunch of undecideds.

    Question is, how much of the change is a result of the change to the survey method and how much are actual changes in voting intention?

    The trouble with a series beak in the method makes the time series comparisons a bit unreliable.

    However, if there is a discernible jump in Newspoll and Ipsos that follows the trends they maybe things are on track.

    My guess is 54-45 for Newspoll, with PV ALP +1, LNP-2 and others up 1

  19. (Recomment from previous thread:)

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/01/sundays-best-campaign-launches-leaders-debates-how-to-votes-and-more/comment-page-19/#comment-3885746

    In inner-city seats where the Greens overtake the ALP for the first time, the ALP to Greens preference flow is usually a touch higher than the Greens to ALP preference flow, likely mainly because ALP voters are unused to having their preferences distributed and are more likely to follow the How to vote card advice (the ALP and Greens are advising second preferences for each other in Griffith) and a small percentage of teal type voters who vote Green but preference the Coalition. I doubt that the LNP has any real chance in in Griffith (I think they will have a swing against them, Morrison is least popular in inner-city electorates) but the LNP probably has slightly lower chances against the Greens.

    Policies that parties both agree on are most likely to be areas of cooperation between the ALP and Greens in the Senate and the event of a hung parliament (although an ALP majority is probably more likely). Voters` choices between the ALP and the Greens has an effect on where they disagree, including the balance of compromise where the ALP and Greens disagree on how far to go on any given issue. Therefore if in policy disputes between the ALP and Greens you agree with the Greens more, the best advice is to vote Green (and vice-versa).

  20. Cheers Griff and BH!

    BH – I’ve had multiple chats with Mali via friends of friends and at other events around disability care etc. He’s a genuinely good bloke and clearly a smooth operator. He’ll govern here as long as he wants I think. SA Libs have always been a mess.

  21. GlenO from the last thread:

    More than that, there’s real possibility that my vote could have a counter-intuitive effect. If the Greens get ahead of Labor, it could result in the Liberals winning… because a heap of Labor preferences may go the wrong way because of portrayal of the Greens as bad by a heap of Labor supporters (including a whole heap here on PB), whereas if the Greens are knocked out it would basically guarantee Labor winning (because Greens preferences go to Labor more strongly than vice versa).

    Labor prefs go plenty strongly to the Greens in Lib/Grn counts – about as strongly as Green prefs to in Lib/ALP seats. What you’re worried about is more a thing where a teal does well (say Lib 40, ALP 25, teal 25, others 10). If the teal comes third, their prefs go strongly to the Libs in a Lib/ALP count. Any seat where it’s Labor and the Greens coming second and third like that doesn’t affect the chances of the Libs winning much.

    (Of course, cynicism that Labor voters might actually prefer the Libs to the Greens might drive you away from Labor. Some of the permanent inhabitants of PB really don’t help their party as much as they think.)

    Check out Maiwar (Qld), Prahran (Vic), Ballina and Lismore (NSW) and Higgins (federal) for examples of Lib/Grn (or Nat/Grn) counts. There’s probably some Brisbane council wards, if you wanna get really esoteric.

  24. QLD has
    ALP dropping 4 (31 to 27), and GRN increasing 5 (13 to 18)
    PHON dropping 5 (10 to 5), and LNP increasing 7 (34 to 41)

    It seems they are picking up a shift to the left on both sides of the spectrum, ALP->GRN, and PHON->LIB, so there might be something in it that Lib primary.

  26. BTR Producer: Welcome to Poll Bludger, I too got very drunk on election night 2007, good memories, I hope May 21 is a similarly good night for us Laborites.
    Good evening to my fellow members of the over 50s Labor Pisshead Bludgers society – Beaglie Boy, Upnorth, Boingo, Dr McFumbles

  27. Re Bug1 ”Not reading anything into those state breakdowns, im sure someone will see it as ‘the narrowing’ in QLD.”

    The margin of error for the poll is 2.7% (probably should round to 3%). The sample size for Qld would be about 280, with a margin of error around 6%. At State level the numbers would bounce around a lot.

  29. “Why can’t people say exactly why they don’t like Scott Morrison??
    He’s a Pathological Liar
    He’s a Misogynist
    He runs away
    He’s a Religious Nut Job
    He never takes Responsibility for mistakes
    Nobody (even on his own side) can Work with him
    He’s Corrupt”
    ________
    You’d have to call that a full house!

  32. Labor going into the last quarter 20 points up and kicking with a slight breeze. LNP older players looking tired and not much speed or skill on the bench to come on.
    Odds:
    ALP 1.44
    LNP 2.77

  33. According to Sharri Markson, “very senior Liberals” aren’t worried about Frydenberg losing his seat.

    Sure, Sharri. That’s why he had a front page and page 5 colour spread in the Herald Sun.

  34. It definitely won’t get any worse in Queensland than at the last election. The Cons can’t afford to lose any seats; they will lose at least 10. A firm majority is over the glibness of the man who coined (copied it) the phrase, “Where the bloody hell are you”, Americans liken it to the blood of Christ – a big no, no!

  35. SA Bludger, hi and welcome too.
    Good pro Albo launch report on our ABC, Andrew Probyn says Labor are confident about WA,SA, and VIC, NSW is complicated, QLD – unknown really.

  36. BTRProducer says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 7:00 pm

    Hey everyone. Another very long time lurker (probably been reading this blog since it was part of Crikey all those years ago!) and first time poster. Have enjoyed reading everyone’s contributions for years now. Just wanted to poke my head above the wall and say Hi. ☺

    Very keen to see an ALP Government elected on May 21. I still remember that night in November 2007 when Rudd got up. Was at a “Roast The Pollies” BBQ and got very drunk that night. Such a good evening.

    Here’s hoping for an Ablo (yes, I too remember the Rudd2000 Twitter account) landslide in 3 weeks. I will be joining folks here in the getting blind drunk event for the night.
    =================
    Welcome too digger. You know when I first popped my head up on PB I was asked who I supported in the RGR wars! We have come a long way. Told em I’m from Queensland and always support the leader.

    Well fingers crosssed you will be drunk for three days from the 21st!

    What’s your poison cobber? Few of us like a cold beer, bit of Bundy Rum. C@t who is like “mum to all the bludgers” likes cider. Fire-Fox vapes Gunja. Great Aunty Eunice I think takes a Sherry or a Shandy.

    Mavis steers clear of the Ice in drinks as he can end up a bit worse for wear from bad batches of Ice.

  37. SA Bludger
    I agree re Mali. Lucky SA. We have 39 yr old Conservative Premier here in NSW. Nice bloke but ….

    Marshall’s wife was best buddy with my SIL. Many tears shed there and I’ve been assured by her that SA has lost a treasure in Marshall. I secretly gloat.

  40. A 54/46 Newspoll 3 weeks out would calm a lot of nerves.

    I will still be happy with 76 Labor seats! Hoping for quite a few more.

    I do think Xenophon will pick up a Senate seat, and prevent any chance of a 3rd “right” seat. I would expect SA to elect 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green, and Mr X. However, I still harbour a sneaky suspicion that the final Senate seat could be a lineball battle between the Greens and the 3rd Labor candidate, and by no means sure that the Greens will win (although more likely than not).

    Back to the phones for me this week. It’s still a vote by vote battle and the election is not won yet. Also looking forward to a big day on 21st May!

  41. Thanks for the kind welcomes, Quasar and Evan. Figured I might as well post given how much time I’ve spent reading this blog over the years.

    Am in Griffith, so hoping to see Terri Butler re-elected for another Term. Done some letterbox drops for her, and have signed up for election day itself.

    Looking forward to Newspoll tonight. If this one can stay the course at 53/47 then we can all breathe slightly easier these last 3 weeks. Can’t see what else Morrison can do now to turn the tide if his efforts so far have come to naught. This Newspoll will be the first proper one to see some sort of reflection in the numbers of the Solomon Islands debacle. Not sure if the inflation figure will show up too much in terms of impact tonight. That one is likely to be seen more next Sunday, is my guess.

  42. Can’t believe the Greens are on 15%. Inner city Melbourne is remarkably free of Greens corflutes. There are a few here and there, but a fraction from what’s been seen in previous elections.

  43. Welcome too, BRTProducer

    I reckon many of us are still holding on to 2007 memories. Fingers crossed for 2022

  44. Evan says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 7:06 pm

    BTR Producer: Welcome to Poll Bludger, I too got very drunk on election night 2007, good memories, I hope May 21 is a similarly good night for us Laborites.
    Good evening to my fellow members of the over 50s Labor Pisshead Bludgers society – Beaglie Boy, Upnorth, Boingo, Dr McFumbles
    =================
    All in training too – Like Albo we got the wind at our backs

  45. William Bowe says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 7:13 pm

    In fairness to Sharri Markson, her “very senior Liberal” could be Peter Dutton.
    ==================
    I will pay that Dear Leader

  46. @Evan says:
    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 7:06 pm

    BTR Producer: Welcome to Poll Bludger, I too got very drunk on election night 2007, good memories, I hope May 21 is a similarly good night for us Laborites.
    Good evening to my fellow members of the over 50s Labor Pisshead Bludgers society – Beaglie Boy, Upnorth, Boingo, Dr McFumbles
    ______________________

    Welcome Evan, 2007 was a great piss up with snacks, fizzy wine, and a few fellow travellers.

    Contrast to 2019, a pissup but very different, was away for a car event on the weekend in Benalla so started in the pub for some beers at about 6pm when the news showed final polls 52-48 ALP, back to the motel to watch the count with the beers and fizzy wine……..8pm retired to the inevitable and had to face the gloating the next day from LNP and rwnj fans. At least the senate was purged of most idiots though.

  47. The 2007 (and 2016 was out of the box, too) memories are still there but overshadowed by the nightmare of 2019. I think everyone is more cautious this time as we should be.

  50. BK:

    Sunday, May 1, 2022 at 7:07 pm

    [‘You’d have to call that a full house!’]

    More like a Royal Flush.

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