The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.
The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.
Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.
Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.
The LNP might think they have a chance in Parramatta. The margin is only about 3%, and the long-serving ALP member is retiring. There is a strong representation of Australians of Indian family heritage in the electorate, who are reputed to be very socially conservative. Morrison seems to be going out of his way to curry favour with the Indian community in his media stunts, so maybe the LNP have research showing this demographic to be strong for them. This could also be a factor in my own electorate of Greenway just west of Parramatta. The opinion poll numbers for NSW suggest Labor should be untroubled to hold these seats, plus the betting markets show Labor strongly favoured, but these are a couple of seats to watch on election night.
Fargo61 wrote, “Garbage, the Liberal Party name is as false as they are, even ‘Conservative’ would probably be false now. Reactionary Opportunists or something like it would be more appropriate. Hell The NZ National Party is nowhere near as reactionary as this mob either in terms of social policy such as marriage equality or environmental policy.”
That is a party label, one that they have inherited. It has nothing to do with their ideology. 99% of Tories will happily admit to being crypto fascists.
Oh dear …..
“The former chairman and co-founder of Aspen Medical has revealed how the company obtained access to senior ranks of the Coalition government by participating in political fundraising and appointing a former Liberal cabinet minister to its board.
The company has earned $1.6 billion over the past two years, the bulk of which was courtesy of federal PPE contracts issued without a public tender. Its pre-tax profits during this period have totalled more than $420 million.”
ABC Breaking News
That to me looks like a big fat whopping FICAC investigation there UpNorth.
When 4 Corners showed the “Moonlight State” the Fitzgerald Inquiry was called and the most corrupt Government in Australia fell as a result.
Albo should get Fitzgerald to investigate tonights’ 4 Corners.
Just listening to Albo’s playlist from the InStyle piece. It’s a killer – especially if you are the same vintage as we are. I mean Joy Division, Nick Cave, The Jam, the Boss – the list goes on. Pure listening pleasure.
I find it highly amusing that it is the partisans of the Labor Right who insist that the terms Left and Right don’t have any meaning any more. I assume they mean these terms have little meaning within Labor any more, and in that respect I suppose they are correct.
Of course, they only post this stuff when they can spare the time from posting about their vitriolic hatred of the Greens and Independents 🙁
4 Corners is really the last man standing when it comes to quality journalism on the ABC. Media Watch a close second.
But the days of Q&A, Insiders, and Lateline (oh, how I miss Lateline) are sadly dimly lit in the rear view window.
BTR Producer: You are most welcome to the Labor Poll Bludger pissup club, age 41 makes the cut off, does not just have to be 50 and over blokes. Sounds like you fit all criteria very well.
Libs are putting a big effort into Parramatta, however Andrew Charlton has an army of volunteers.
The “Liberals” are the political wing of corporate Australia and the oligarchs that run it. They are conservative to the extent that the “oligarchs” have done well out of the existing order. In that sense they are happy to ally themselves with traditional conservatives. However, if the traditional values get in the way of making a buck they’ll drop them like a hot potato. They are also allied with what might be called the “Alf Garnett” demographic (character in 70s English sitcom “Till Death to us Part”). These were working class conservatives, typically racist and authoritarian, who in earlier years supported Mussolini and Hitler. Now they listen to Alan Jones and his ilk and follow conspiracy theiries. In recent decades, the right seems to have found a way to expand this demographic, much to their advantage.
Re UpNorth “… The company has earned $1.6 billion over the past two years, the bulk of which was courtesy of federal PPE contracts issued without a public tender. Its pre-tax profits during this period have totalled more than $420 million.”
The Morrison Government is a patronage network?
Evan @ #1358 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 8:52 pm
Do I qualify? Male, pale and stale from cane toad territory. But I don’t drink beer. Is that ideologically unsound?
@Its Time
As the young one, I can’t induct you formally. But what is your drink of choice?
https://www.alp.org.au/policies/fixing-the-nbn
An Albanese Labor Government will secure more Australian families and businesses quality, high speed internet by expanding full-fibre NBN access to 1.5 million premises.
Under Labor, 90 per cent of Australians in the fixed line footprint — over 10 million premises — will have access to world-class gigabit speeds by 2025.
Labor will also keep the NBN in public hands, keeping internet costs for families affordable while ensuring improvements to the network.
Another lnp policy failure fixed by the alp.
4Corners!! Aspen!!
BTRProducer @ #1363 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:05 pm
Red wine, scotch,bundy, rum, cider. Is that politically correct?
Thanks for your informative background information and insights wrt Kooyong, Arky and Here we go again.
My comment was simply based upon the choice some voters may make to stay with a Moderate Liberal that gives them buy in to the next leader of the Liberals.
Though if you say that the anger on the ground against Frydenburg is palpable then that would overwhelm other considerations.
I also wonder whether the election of Zali Steggal in Warringah has given the voters in other high net worth seats a permission structure to vote for an Independent?
It’s Time – quite OK if you are not a beer drinker, whatever your poison of choice is – welcome aboard.
The Morrison government is purely transactional.
Everything is quid pro quo.
Every substantial stream of government funding has been subverted to line the pockets of donors. Donors who have quite happily funnelled it back to the Coalition.
A very cosy affair for all involved. Very costly for the rest of us.
It also begs the question, if they are so open in these transactions, what is below the surface?
One suspects icebergian proportions.
No wonder they are shitting themselves over a Federal Corruption body with actual teeth.
It will catch some ALP people, no organisation is perfect, but the Coalition have far more to lose.
As Roy Schneider famously said on sighting the previously hidden menace, we’re going to need a bigger boat.
@Evan
Those all sound like fine choices. I do enjoy a good red wine myself.
Steve777 says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:00 pm
Re UpNorth “… The company has earned $1.6 billion over the past two years, the bulk of which was courtesy of federal PPE contracts issued without a public tender. Its pre-tax profits during this period have totalled more than $420 million.”
The Morrison Government is a patronage network?
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Imagine the $$ coming back through them Tory fundraisers. Bloody incredible $1.6 billion. No tenders
What an episode of 4 Corners that was. That alone should keep any new ICAC Labor sets up busy for years.
It’s Time says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:09 pm
BTRProducer @ #1363 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:05 pm
@Its Time
As the young one, I can’t induct you formally. But what is your drink of choice?
Red wine, scotch,bundy, rum, cider. Is that politically correct?
中华人共和国
A jack of al trades – your bloody welcome brother
It’s Time @ #1361 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:01 pm
Anyone who doesn’t drink beer is fine by me! I need someone to share a cider with. 🙂
Well I have re-discovered, in the back of a cupboard in the kitchen, 2 very nice bottles of port in those twee retro-stoneware bottles popular in the 1980s.
From what i can see, these are 30yo port and the bottles are from 1984 and 1988 so might be good to open one for the election.
Tonight’s episode of 4 Corners told us all we need to know why former Minister for Health Greg Hunt resigned before this election campaign.
Yep. For those of us who ranted and raved at the time. The feds paid Aspen to provide surge workforce in aged care dealing with covid outbreak.
The Vic Govt had to subsequently put senior public hospital nurses into St Basil’s to stabilise the situation after the feds ‘surge’ workforce failed…..
50 residents died in that facility alone.
Maybe I’ll open my bottle of Lark on election night.
For anyone who’s interested in how the Populist Authoritarians cracked the Democracy code and made it work for them and their cronies then you should listen to this discussion between Peter Pomerantsev and Jon Favreau:
https://youtu.be/30tPM3n6C1c
It blew my tiny mind.
Sportsbet tonight:
Labor 1.38
Coalition 3.00
Not much change in individual seat odds except Hughes
Liberal 1.30
Independent 3.20
Hughes looks like being a dog’s Breakfast
Ohh even PB got a mention on media watch!!
Our Dear Leader, Mr Bowe, just got name checked on Media Watch.
King OMalley says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:22 pm
Tonight’s episode of 4 Corners told us all we need to know why former Minister for Health Greg Hunt resigned before this election campaign.
===================
Didn’t help Joh’s Ministers. Don “Shady” Lane, Brian Austin and Leisha Harvey. Joh only got off because the Young Nat, Luke Shaw, was on the Jury.
Go after the bastards.
BTRProducer,
Don’t forget background briefing!
So anyone think that scomo will try and use Aspen to distract from the rate rise tomorrow?
Wow, that mugshot of Kevin Bonham.
Of course at the time, the state vic fibs, the media and the feds including Frydenberg, tried to shift the blame to vic govt.
Re Four Corners – if the media – especially the ABC don’t ask questions to Morrison about this tomorrw they are a pack of wankers too.
I was thinking, it would be hilarious if none of Scomo’s captain’s pick candidates in NSW won.
Pi says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:23 pm
Maybe I’ll open my bottle of Lark on election night.
________________
I hate to admit this but I did have a couple of nice glasses of Lark at the whisky bar in hobart a few years back
[Upnorthsays: Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:27 pm
Re Four Corners – if the media – especially the ABC don’t ask questions to Morrison about this tomorrw they are a pack of wankers too.]
“But Greg Hunt has left parliament so why should we investigate”
The current government deserves to be voted out and in opposition for 4 terms minimum.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1375 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:20 pm
Only if it’s the desired outcome.
You can be sure the obedient Murdoch journos will not quiz Scomo about Aspen.
Ohh even PB got a mention on media watch!!
——————————
I hope they pointed out Edward’s scurrilous lies about my death
I’ll have a cider or six with you C@t, since the gout put me off the beers.
Or an alcoholic ginger beer, for its medicinal anti-inflammatory properties of course.
Dandy Murray @ #1394 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:31 pm
Bundaberg do a nice one, so I hear. 🙂
Great Aunt Eunice says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:30 pm
Ohh even PB got a mention on media watch!!
——————————
I hope they pointed out Edward’s scurrilous lies about my death
=====================
I’m still thinking about Scotland Island Great Aunt Eunice – but I’m glad Mr William’s site got a mention.
This is for Sophie Scamps and Julia Banks 🙂
https://youtu.be/drGx7JkFSp4
Same Dr Fumbles – I bought a round of nips of their Whisky Liqueur for my postgrad students. Have to admit it is a nice drop.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 9:33 pm
Dandy Murray @ #1394 Monday, May 2nd, 2022 – 9:31 pm
I’ll have a cider or six with you C@t, since the gout put me off the beers.
Or an alcoholic ginger beer, for its medicinal anti-inflammatory properties of course.
Bundaberg do a nice one, so I hear.
======================
Bundaberg Ginger Beer and Bundaberg Rum mixed is delightful and good for the health. Apparently..
This Aspen stuff… holy dooley.