On the cards

Liberal how-to-vote cards betray few scruples about dealing with the political right, though One Nation have gone against them in at least one place where it might matter.

With the first postal votes being sent out this week, crunch time is arriving for parties to determine their how-to-vote cards, a much overrated yet not entirely insignificant feature of Australian election campaigning. First out of the block are the Liberal Party, whose how-to-votes are featured on the candidate pages of its website. These are in most cases tokenistic, since the preferences of Liberal candidates are usually not distributed, but it’s interesting to note that teal independents have been put last in Warringah, Goldstein and Kooyong, and behind Labor in North Sydney and Curtin (though not Wentworth). More consequentially, though not unpredictably, the party’s how-to-vote cards have Labor ahead of competitive Greens candidates.

The Liberal Senate tickets have the United Australia Party among the six parties recommended for numbering in every state except (wait for it) Western Australia: Palmer’s party is placed second in Victoria and Tasmania, third behind the Liberal Democrats in New South Wales and third behind One Nation in Queensland (the taboo against preferencing that party being very much a thing of the past). Pressed about the matter by The West Australian last month, Scott Morrison said: “I don’t believe there will be a deal and that is certainly not my expectation and it is certainly not my request.” However, he conceded it was a “matter for the party organisation”, and certainly didn’t stake his authority on the matter.

The party’s Queensland ticket offers a useful boost to Pauline Hanson, placing her ahead of Clive Palmer at number three and Campbell Newman at number four. Nonetheless, One Nation is directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Longman, which helped swing the result Labor’s way when the party last won the seat in 2016. Conversely, preferences are being directed to Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, contrary to suggestions he would be among a number of Liberal moderates targeted in relation for a sixth placement on the Liberals’ Tasmanian ticket. Those have turned out to be Bridget Archer in Bass, James Stewart in Sturt, Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, with only the former seeming like a seat where the party is likely to attract much support. It is not clear from media reports if the teal independents are ahead of the Liberals in Goldstein and North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

870 comments on “On the cards”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  2. Pissheadbloke aka Evan says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:58 pm

    UpNorth: There is that old joke – the luckiest bloke is the one whose bride is the daughter of a family that owns a brewery.
    Thought of that one while reading about your mate above.
    _____________________

    I thought it was a nymphomaniac whose father owns a brewery, the perfect bride for any Engineer

    Fun Fact in say 1999, i was in Melbourne and involved, for a while, with a radical, lefty acedemic whose father was filthy rich and owned a chain of pubs in Qld

    Fun Fact 2 – guess who has a big regret since about, err, 2001

  4. There is some quite superb recorder playing going on right now by my friend at the ACO opening, so kindly linked by Itza. GG might appreciate, if he could bring himself to try.

    I have her album “Piracy: Baroque Music Stolen For The Recorder”. Love it!

  5. Well, if we are talking musical instruments, I got to a 5th grade level in piano playing, that is one skill that never leaves you – tinkling the ivories

  6. Pissheadbloke:

    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:27 pm

    An old has-been’s advice is that please stop being a “Pissheadbloke”, this site is far much more than your crapola. Consider yourself chastised. No offence?

  7. @Pisshead Bloke aka Evan

    Not so sure about musical talent, my best mate is a musical genius but what does he play, the accordion, the banjo, the bagpipes……and yes he is single

  11. @Evan says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:10 pm

    The accordion is quite an instrument to master.
    I wish I had learned the guitar.
    ________________

    Nahh…..plus Tubular Bells….

  12. The old joke about the difference between accordion players and terrorists?

    Accordian players have two sets of tyre marks?

  14. As you all know I post rarely, but the increase in new people of right wing persuasion commenting in the last couple of days, although annoying is rather pleasing to me.

    I can smell the desperation blowing through the air.

  18. CarefullyRushedsays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:39 pm
    Steelydan @ 5:07pm

    Deves has apologised for her language and you will find that her views are very similar to mainstream Australian.

    With respect, no her views on trans women are not mainstream views.

    “in my dedication to fighting for the rights of women and girls”

    Is just an exclusionary tactic with the sole purpose to divide and alienate. Trans women are women, otherwise there would be exactly zero reasons to transition to make their body match their neurological make-up. Who we are, trans or not, is controlled by our brains from before birth. It is still not understood what causes this wiring to mismatch everything else, but I can definitely tell you when they don’t match it’s absolutely excruciatingly debilitating.

    To say her views are toxic when the average Australian has similar concerns is not the way to handle these issues.

    Her views are absolutely toxic, because they fundamentally mislead people, with outright lies, in order to divide and alienate. Surgery is not mutilating, and indeed requires some pretty high bars to be met in order to access it. This includes two separate psychological assessments. Have a read of the WPATH standards of care, they’re the authoritative document on this stuff.

    __________________________________________________________
    As I said the majority of all of the teenagers who are changing their sex have been in the last decade in another decade we will start getting the results. What sort of success rate are you expecting? 100% not going to happen. I understand for the sex change to be optimum the earlier it is done the better but I really wish it could happen in the mid twenties and not the early teens. It worries me. As a father I have seen so many teenagers vary there sexual orientation, adamant they were this only for them to be that. Hard comparing experimenting teenagers with someone undergoing a full sex change but damn they are so young. But just call everyone who has concerns some type of transphobe and ignore genuine concerns.
    As for trans athletes Deves is 100% correct.

  21. LongMemory:

    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:18 pm

    [‘As you all know I post rarely, but the increase in new people of right wing persuasion commenting in the last couple of days, although annoying is rather pleasing to me.

    I can smell the desperation blowing through the air.’]

    Though those posting recently don’t seem to have a conservative bias.
    And it’s goodnighr from him?

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #699 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 8:02 pm

    Yabba,

    While I can possibly admire the time and effort of individuals mastering the recorder, my reaction is always, it always sounds like asthmatic wheezing to me. The question is always, “What is the point and why bother”.

    These are a couple of the pieces we played this week. Bach Contrapunctus I and IX. If you think that this sounds like an asthmatic, I sincerely pity you. The Art of the Fugue is a wondrous thing.

    I played the top part. The little one. We had an arrangement for six, with tenor and sub-bass doubling, and two basses. I know that you can’t imagine the pleasure that playing music like this can bring, but I assure you that it is truly wonderful, and beats getting drunk, for me at least. The counting involved in the first one, to get your entries right, is a serious effort in concentration. The second one is pure exhilaration, although we don’t go quite as fast as this group do.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLEL9WcbGLU

  27. Steelydan

    “But just call everyone who has concerns some type of transphobe and ignore genuine concerns.”

    There are answers for all the concerns you’ve listed there, however they are quite involved and it’s hard to put in the effort explaining them to people who aren’t really interested.

    The most important part is that all the risks and concerns are known by the medical profession that specializes in this, and the most extreme interventions are difficult to get without serious symptoms and a lot of preparation (medical and bureaucratic). This goes doubly for young people as it does for adults. This is at least the case in Australia, and the horror stories you hear are more often cases of clear medical malpractice from the US.

    The other important part is that focus on “success rate” is misleading when it tends to measure post-transition outcomes to the general population, not to people with gender dysphoria who did not receive such treatment. When compared to the latter, transition is clearly the best clinical option even though it requires follow up care.

  28. The true beauty of the Recorder was in torturing adults with the horrible things that were given out to school children by the millions. Sitting on a tram, cheerfully playing an awful dirge, while everyone else suffered in silence. Better than anything Handel ever did.

  30. I just hope News’ efforts at making fringe trans issues into a major talking point of the election haven’t been as successful in mainstream lounge rooms as they have among the political tragics of PB (luckily, I am pretty sure that they haven’t).

  31. In disastrous economic news, US GDP contracted by 1.4%

    “GDP report shows the US economy shrank, masking a broader recovery”

    This is the headline at New York Times

    Just think.

    Biden took inflation in USA to 40 year high

    Biden took GDP to negative

    New York Times headline says GDP data is “masking” the wonderful economy created by Biden

    Biden is getting praise for high inflation and negative GDP

  33. Professional sports have set their rules and there is nothing the Australian government could actually do to stop it. Lets pretend for a moment that Roger Federer announces he has become a women and has ticked all the Women Tennis Association boxes to play and enters the Australian Open there is nothing the federal government can do to stop Roger from playing.

  35. For you Upnorth:

    We don’t just like it,
    we love it!
    We don’t just like it,
    we love it!
    The people, the places
    the mates, the faces.
    The XXXX! Yep!
    The beer up here,
    We love it up here

  36. A very sad side effect of being ruled by a horrible horrible man is also having to see him all the time on television. What can be seen is a man who has to believe his own bullshit as he knows that deep down it is all he has, false bravado. All that over confidence has got him incredibly above his station. The problem of the hollow man is if the narcissistic vindictive gaslighting gets seen by enough in it’s true light. He wakes up and comes out swinging, on the days he chooses to turn up, emboldened by the backing of the old money interests pulling his strings. With all that backing, there is still the ever present irresistible force of the truth.

  37. “Professional sports have set their rules and there is little the Australian government could actually do. Lets pretend for a moment that Roger Federer announces he has become a women and has ticked all the WTA boxes to play on the WTA and then enters the Australian Open there is nothing the federal government can do to stop Roger from playing.”

    Only idiots believe it is actually about sport and fairness, they are issues relevant to professional sports at the highest level and noone else, it is purely and simply bigotry and hatred all the way down. It is for political advantage and those raising it do not care how many kids they kill.

  38. Steelydan @ Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:31 pm

    As I said the majority of all of the teenagers who are changing their sex have been in the last decade in another decade we will start getting the results. What sort of success rate are you expecting? 100% not going to happen. I understand for the sex change to be optimum the earlier it is done the better but I really wish it could happen in the mid twenties and not the early teens. It worries me. As a father I have seen so many teenagers vary there sexual orientation, adamant they were this only for them to be that. Hard comparing experimenting teenagers with someone undergoing a full sex change but damn they are so young. But just call everyone who has concerns some type of transphobe and ignore genuine concerns.
    As for trans athletes Deves is 100% correct.

    There’s a lot to unpack here. I won’t go into the trans athlete stuff anymore as that’s been well addressed.

    Firstly, sex and gender are two very different things: sexual orientation is who a person is attracted to, gender identity is what that person understands themselves to be. They are independent of each other, and they can change.

    As for ‘success’ rates (or ‘regret’ rates), from a meta analysis of numerous studies on the issue (here: https://journals.lww.com/prsgo/fulltext/2021/03000/regret_after_gender_affirmation_surgery__a.22.aspx):

    A total of 27 studies, pooling 7928 transgender patients who underwent any type of GAS, were included. The pooled prevalence of regret after GAS was 1% (95% CI <1%–2%). Overall, 33% underwent transmasculine procedures and 67% transfemenine procedures. The prevalence of regret among patients undergoing transmasculine and transfemenine surgeries was <1% (IC <1%–<1%) and 1% (CI <1%–2%), respectively.

    As I said earlier, the controls around accessing this type of procedure are quite high and onerous. Gender reassignment surgery of any type requires independent confirmation from two psychological practitioners, including written letters, of a diagnosis of gender dysphoria, that the patient has a complete and clear understanding of the gravity of the procedure (in that it is completely irreversible), ability to give informed consent, and a few other things. One just cannot say ‘I want to have a sex change’ and get it tomorrow, without any other thought or consideration. It requires extensive counselling and approval, per the WPATH standards, which often takes years.

    I understand that people have concerns about this. For what it’s worth it is incredibly confronting, having gone through it myself. I absolutely would never, ever, wish gender dysphoria on even my worst, most hated enemy. It nearly drove me to suicide. I do understand that it is hard to grasp why someone would want to change something so innate about themselves. Deves’ commentary is not struggling to understand, it’s outright bigotry.

    I’m certainly not having a go at anyone who has genuine concerns, though to suggest that Deves’ commentary is ‘genuine concern’ is absolutely ludicrous.

  39. C@tmomma @ Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:44 pm

    Hope there aren’t any crocs! No rain here, though it’s been threatening all day yesterday, and today. Mother Nature seems displeased at the moment.

  40. “they are issues relevant to professional sports at the highest level and noone else”

    Funnily enough, there’s a rampant sexual abuse problem in professional and amateur sports, if people would care to look. It’s just got nothing to do with trans people so it’s a hard problem to grandstand on.

  41. I have just received a $250 bribe from Scomo! i have spent $100 on a donation to the ALP, $20 on a local wine to toast Scomo’s rapid ascent to Rapture, and am reserving the remainder for what earthly pleasures that are still available to me (sadly few, I’m afraid)

  42. Those evily trying to leverage transphobia for politcal advantage maybe irredeemably evil but the aren’t dumb.

    You just can’t put a refugee up against a wall and execute them. In fact you can’t even just dump them in a hellhole concentration camp and torture and kill them. You have to foster and build the hate and killing lust. Tell some lies about them throwing kids overboard, pointout based on the lies they aren’t good humans, you have to exaggerate the size, cost and threat of refugee problem, you need to start dehumanising them and then lying about their motivations.

    Done well enough you can have a majority of the country cheering on torture and murder.

    If you think the transphobia is different and couldn’t get to concentration camps torture and killing you’ve not been paying attention or you are lying.

  44. “Funnily enough, there’s a rampant sexual abuse problem in professional and amateur sports, if people would care to look.”

    This is a very good point, it comes to surface all the time but we choose to ignore it. There is a very good case for the whole sport of womens figure skating being an cruel abuse of young woman but you have to go down a particular rabbit hole to even realise just who much physical and mental abuse the underage children suffer to be able to float through the air doing amazing feats in pretty outfits for adults to enjoy.

  45. UpNorth Pissheadbloke aka Evan

    Real Labor supporters drink “Cold Gold” KB none of this XXXX rubbish

  46. “UpNorth Pissheadbloke aka Evan

    Real Labor supporters drink “Cold Gold” KB none of this XXXX rubbish”

    Given the amount of pain and disappointment involved surely ALP supporters must drink 150 lashes and naught else.

  47. Rex at 6.45pm re proof of Marles’ diagnosis…

    No, Rex. McKenzie can supply evidence he DOESN’T have Covid first. Marles doesn’t march to the beat of her drum.

  48. CarefullyRushed,
    No crocs but the Kookaburras are loving it. The earthworms are floating to the top of the ground. Easy pickings.

    No, I’m depressed because I just bought a convertible car, after my neighbour smashed into my old car, which was black, in the dark as she took her son to early morning boxing training. I bought it with the money I received from my insurance as I was wishfully thinking that next summer couldn’t be as wet as the last two. So I read that article, and not only are we to have a wet winter and spring but maybe a 3rd La Nina in a row next summer! I despair!

  50. Not sure if everyone knows this.

    Was told yesterday that on the day of the election and after the polls close, the Officer in Charge of the polling station opens an envelope with details of whom the contest is for that whole electorate – ie ALP vs Liberal candidate which would be the main contests.

    The ballots are separated on 1st preference. The two main contenders ballots are put to the side and then remaining ballots for 2PP are looked out and the officers look which of the two parties are listed first before the other ie if say Greens got first preference and ALP was listed 4th and Liberal was say 6th then the preference would go to ALP. It is irrelevant who was second or third in that instance.

    Never realised this.

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