On the cards

Liberal how-to-vote cards betray few scruples about dealing with the political right, though One Nation have gone against them in at least one place where it might matter.

With the first postal votes being sent out this week, crunch time is arriving for parties to determine their how-to-vote cards, a much overrated yet not entirely insignificant feature of Australian election campaigning. First out of the block are the Liberal Party, whose how-to-votes are featured on the candidate pages of its website. These are in most cases tokenistic, since the preferences of Liberal candidates are usually not distributed, but it’s interesting to note that teal independents have been put last in Warringah, Goldstein and Kooyong, and behind Labor in North Sydney and Curtin (though not Wentworth). More consequentially, though not unpredictably, the party’s how-to-vote cards have Labor ahead of competitive Greens candidates.

The Liberal Senate tickets have the United Australia Party among the six parties recommended for numbering in every state except (wait for it) Western Australia: Palmer’s party is placed second in Victoria and Tasmania, third behind the Liberal Democrats in New South Wales and third behind One Nation in Queensland (the taboo against preferencing that party being very much a thing of the past). Pressed about the matter by The West Australian last month, Scott Morrison said: “I don’t believe there will be a deal and that is certainly not my expectation and it is certainly not my request.” However, he conceded it was a “matter for the party organisation”, and certainly didn’t stake his authority on the matter.

The party’s Queensland ticket offers a useful boost to Pauline Hanson, placing her ahead of Clive Palmer at number three and Campbell Newman at number four. Nonetheless, One Nation is directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Longman, which helped swing the result Labor’s way when the party last won the seat in 2016. Conversely, preferences are being directed to Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, contrary to suggestions he would be among a number of Liberal moderates targeted in relation for a sixth placement on the Liberals’ Tasmanian ticket. Those have turned out to be Bridget Archer in Bass, James Stewart in Sturt, Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, with only the former seeming like a seat where the party is likely to attract much support. It is not clear from media reports if the teal independents are ahead of the Liberals in Goldstein and North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

870 comments on “On the cards”

Comments Page 1 of 18
1 2 … 18

  2. Reinfections and new Covid strains are on the rise, yet when was the last time a federal cabinet member promoted booster vaccinations? Who is the Health minister at the moment?

    I can’t remember the last time I heard the NSW premier or a minister do likewise.

    Tens of thousands of people in NSW have probably caught COVID-19 more than once, as highly contagious Omicron sub-variants such as the newly arrived BA.4 strain, increase the chance of second or even third infections.

    Experts say reinfections are still rare, but they will “become more and more common” – and are expected to be milder – as the virus shifts to an endemic phase, new sub-variants emerge and immunity wanes after the summer’s massive Omicron surge.

    NSW health authorities on Thursday reported the state’s first case of a BA.4 infection, one of the newest members of the Omicron family which has driven a recent spike in cases in South Africa.

    The World Health Organisation is monitoring new Omicron sub-variants, BA.4 and BA.5, which have mutations that could see them more easily evade immunity from previous infections.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/tens-of-thousands-of-covid-19-reinfections-likely-in-nsw-as-first-ba-4-case-detected-20220428-p5agta.html

  3. Looks like Labor’s third Senate candidate in WA might also have some section 44 issues.
    watoday.com.au
    Taliban takeover prevents Labor Senate hopeful from renouncing Afghan citizenship
    Fatima Payman is in the winnable third spot on Labor’s WA Senate ticket and declared her situation in documents lodged with her nomination.

  4. My god, of all the things to be disappointed in Payne over (Solomons, China etc), Aleczahnder is brimming with barely concealed mottled rage over the fact the UK High Commissioner’s post will be vacant during the queen’s jubilee celebrations. Doesn’t that just say it all about the man!

    Australia’s former foreign minister Alexander Downer has savaged the decision by Foreign Minister Marise Payne to let the UK High Commissioner’s posting fall vacant during the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations.

    George Brandis, who is the current High Commissioner to the UK, finishes his four-year posting on April 30 and will fly home to Australia on Saturday.

    Whoever the Labor or Liberal party picks to replace Brandis would be unlikely to arrive in the UK to take up the position until mid-June at the earliest.

    The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations, marking her 70 years on the throne, will take place across the country on the four-day bank holiday weekend from June 2 to 5.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/downer-disappointed-in-payne-for-leaving-uk-post-vacant-during-queen-s-platinum-jubilee-20220428-p5ah1y.html

  5. The election seems to have been decided people have made up their minds, doubt the next 3 weeks will change anything for the old and tired incompetent federal lib/nats government

  6. o_O

    Duck finds missing remains in North Carolina murder investigation

    The pet duck’s inadvertent discovery led authorities to charge the missing woman’s granddaughter and grandson-in-law in the crime

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/duck-finds-missing-remains-north-carolina-murder

    According to Buncombe county sheriff’s office, “Apparently, the duck ran underneath the trailer at 11 Beady Eyed Lane, and as they were chasing after their pet duck, they ran across the container that Nellie Sullivan was located in.”

    “If I could give that duck a medal, I would,” said Sergeant Mark Walker.

  8. Cronus

    That would exactly fit the Chinese playbook in other countries:
    1. establish agreement with country
    2. give money for port and airport facilities that turns out to be a loan
    3. wait till country is unable to repay loan
    4. take control of facilities, base Chinese air force and navy there.

    From the Solomons Chinese aircraft could control the gaps between New Guinea and New Caledonia. Exactly why the Japanese occupied them in WWII.

  9. Good morning Macca RB,
    Always listen to your elders! Except when they’re like my parents and listened to Alan Jones too much. 😉

    Yes, I’m going to be directing traffic at the Empire Bay Public School booth. It takes all comers who live everywhere from Daleys Point, St Huberts Island and Empire Bay itself, to Bensville, and anywhere else people come from who happen to be driving along Empire Bay Drive and just drop in to do their civic duty. 🙂

  10. Hillbilly – It would be interesting to see how the high court deals with a case where it is impossible to renounce. As the Taliban is unrecognised as the government of Afghanistan, does it’s claim to citizenship legally exist?

  11. More Preferencing news from NSW:

    A former Liberal Party member running as an independent in the marginal inner west Sydney electorate of Reid will direct her lower house preferences to the Labor Party ahead of sitting government MP Fiona Martin in a move that could threaten the Coalition’s hold on the crucial seat.

    Independent Natalie Baini – who quit the Liberal Party in protest last year – has put Labor candidate Sally Sitou in fifth place on her how-to-vote cards. Martin is in sixth place.

    The Liberal Democrat Party is also directing its voters to preference Sitou ahead of Martin, making Reid one of only two seats in NSW in which the minor party is preferencing Labor ahead of the Coalition.

    The minor party’s top NSW senate candidate John Ruddick said it typically wanted a Coalition government returned, but had agreed to place Labor ahead of the Liberals on how-to-vote cards in both Reid and Bennelong in exchange for Labor’s fifth-placed preference in the senate.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-lose-preferences-in-must-win-marginal-inner-west-seat-of-reid-20220428-p5agxe.html

  12. Confessions says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 5:46 am
    Reinfections and new Covid strains are on the rise, yet when was the last time a federal cabinet member promoted booster vaccinations? Who is the Health minister at the moment?

    “Tens of thousands of people in NSW have probably caught COVID-19 more than once, as highly contagious Omicron sub-variants such as the newly arrived BA.4 strain, increase the chance of second or even third infections.

    Experts say reinfections are still rare, but they will “become more and more common” – and are expected to be milder – as the virus shifts to an endemic phase, new sub-variants emerge and immunity wanes after the summer’s massive Omicron surge.”
    ———-
    It is a sleeper, and COVID could be a much larger issue for the next Federal government than we all tend to assume. I don’t get the point that infections are expected to be milder. Maybe, if they’re talking about people previously infected by Omicron who get another Omicron infection. As I understand it, there’s no reason to think that any future Omicron sub variant, let alone a totally new variant, will be less virulent; it’s just as possible it could be more so.

    At least the Federal election hasn’t been overly disrupted by COVID and it seems that (for the ALP, if not Albo himself) Albo’s infection might’ve had some upside.

  13. An taking s44 to the extreme, in steady of Russia sanctioning our politicians maybe they should be giving them citizenship instead?

  14. Coalition has no choice but to make a hard play for preferences given their PV. Seen similarly in 2017 WA election and 2017 QLD election. Didn’t pan out so well for them, time will tell how it goes in this election.

  15. Socrates @ #1 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 5:32 am

    Morning all. Stupid interstate flights. I want covid restrictions back!

    The caretaker period used to be a thing, where government departments acted in a neutral manner during election periods.

    Clearly Karen Andrews missed the memo about the conventions of Westminster government. What a Karen!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-28/karen-andrew-dismisses-labor-demands-for-china-briefing-election/101024132

    I think Kristina Keneally saying Andrews was indulging in “conspiratorial fantasies and unhinged commentary” was honing in on the problem, constrained in what she could say about the Minister’s general capacities. Andrews is an embarrassment.

  16. Labor preferencing PHON fifth in NSW Senate not likely to be a huge deal given a tendency of people not to follow Senate HTV and that very few votes would end with PHON in any case.

  17. Dr Bonham gets a guernsey in the 9Fax article about Reid:

    Reid is regarded as a must-win seat by both sides of parliament and is held by Martin on a 3.2 per cent margin. Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said even minor preference flows could threaten the government’s slim hold on the seat.

    Sydney’s worst roundabout gets $100m upgrade, work won’t start for three years
    “If [Baini] polls 10 per cent and a minority of her voters follow that recommendation, that’s significant damage in the context of a marginal seat; 1 per cent or 2 per cent damage is not nothing,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-lose-preferences-in-must-win-marginal-inner-west-seat-of-reid-20220428-p5agxe.html

  20. Has Morrison been lying to us about falling electricity prices? Almost starting to feel sorry for his train wreck of a campaign…

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    This election is yet to produce major arguments on key issues like health, housing, universities and migration – because Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are both playing it safe. That’s dangerous for Labor, opines David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/timid-campaign-is-devoid-of-big-ideas-and-that-works-in-morrison-s-favour-20220428-p5agy8.html
    The last time the RBA lifted rates in an election campaign, John Howard was PM. As Scott Morrison heads to the polls, markets again expect the RBA to move, but there are big differences between 2007 and 2022, explains Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-is-not-like-the-other-rba-not-re-living-2007-campaign-rise-20220428-p5agrv.html
    Josh Frydenberg has reminded the Reserve Bank of Australia of its plan to wait for wages data due later this month before increasing interest rates, but most of the major banks are urging the RBA to move next week, right in the middle of the election campaign, writhe Phil Coorey and Vesna Poljak.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/rba-caught-between-poll-and-markets-20220426-p5ag7u
    Business leaders have called on the Coalition and Labor to outline more detailed economic reforms before the May 21 election to shore up the nation’s defences against the risk of a downturn as the Reserve Bank prepares to lift rates to tame inflation.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/federal-election-2022-employers-demand-labor-and-coalition-reveal-plan-to-fight-inflation/news-story/8e304ff73bfff08110f18891d1e20775
    The AFR’s editorial says that Labor has no real economic plan.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-has-no-real-economic-plan-20220427-p5ago2
    The Canberra Times’ Sarah Basford Canales writes that numerous ties have surfaced between key figures within the Coalition and a controversial right-wing group behind a series of provocative political attacks ads, despite both sides insisting they’re independent of each other. The conservative political group Advance Australia is behind the ads targeting independents and left-wing parties threatening to unseat the Coalition in key areas and has already run smear campaigns against Warringah independent MP Zali Steggall and ACT Senate contender David Pocock.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7712385/smear-and-fear-liberal-links-to-advance-australia-queried/?cs=14329
    Scott Morrison says power bills have fallen under his government, but new figures show prices are marching higher, write Nick Toscano and Mike Foley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/power-bills-will-increase-electricity-hike-charges-up-cost-of-living-election-clash-20220428-p5agrp.html
    Wholesale power prices in Australia’s main electricity market continued to rise in the first three months of 2022, more than doubling the cost a year earlier, with the increase blamed mostly on more costly fossil fuels and the falling reliability of coal-fired power plants.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/29/wholesale-power-prices-double-in-a-year-in-australias-main-electricity-market
    Nationals are breaking their deal with Morrison on climate says the SMH editorial which tells us that anyone who tries to buy off threats with money had better be sure that the other side will stick to the deal and not come back asking for more.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-are-breaking-their-deal-with-morrison-on-climate-20220428-p5agyp.html
    Australia’s largest Carbon Capture and Storage project has failed on all fronts. Is CCS simply a fraud, a sneaky way for the Coalition to subsidise its large fossil fuel donors with public money? Callum Foote reports on the Gorgon failure, the global failure of CCS and the latest government hand-outs for a technology which is not commercial.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/carbon-capture-and-storage-epic-fail-at-gorgon-gas-plant/
    Calling the safeguard mechanism a ‘sneaky carbon tax’ is a scare campaign and an argument for inaction, says Adam Morton.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/28/calling-the-safeguard-mechanism-a-sneaky-carbon-tax-is-a-scare-campaign-and-an-argument-for-inaction
    Paul Karp writes that a majority of voters agree with key Labor campaign messages that Scott Morrison is “all announcement no delivery” and Labor will “put the care back into aged care”, according to new research. A poll of 1,000 voters, commissioned by the progressive think-tank the Australia Institute, shows Labor’s messages are the most effective of the campaign so far, although Coalition claims about handling of the economy also test well.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/29/labors-message-that-morrison-is-all-announcement-no-delivery-resonating-with-voters-poll-shows
    Julia Banks says that the Liberals are showing a lack of character with their attacks on independent candidates.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/04/29/liberals-independents-attacks-julia-banks/
    According to Angus Thompson, Liberal moderate Dave Sharma told a forum last year fossil fuels were a “necessary evil” in Australia’s energy system, but he didn’t support more public money going into oil and gas, in comments unearthed as the Coalition faces a fresh internal struggle over climate action.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sharma-labelled-fossil-fuels-a-necessary-evil-20220410-p5accj.html
    Michael Koziol tells us about the leaking of Katherine Deves’ nomination forms and what was in them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-investigates-leak-of-deves-warringah-nomination-form-20220428-p5agxp.html
    There was no clear winner in a sometimes fiery but civilised public debate about the environment and climate change at the Brighton Town Hall in the electorate of Goldstein last night, reports Royce Millar.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fiery-but-civilised-goldstein-community-forum-pits-tim-wilson-against-zoe-daniel-20220428-p5ah1p.html
    An alleged betrayal of principles is inflaming a war on the right wing of Australian politics with recriminations boiling over into party preference deals in key seats. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson condemned what she styled as a betrayal of conservative principles after her party lost out when the Tasmanian Liberal party resolved to direct its preferences to independent Senator Jacqui Lambie.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/04/28/one-nation-preferences-labor-key-seats/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    Michelle Pini considers more Morrison Government “heavy lifting” on lying, rorting and taunting in the lead up to the Federal Election.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/more-lying-rorting-taunting-coalition-capers-with-josh-bridget-and-sussan,16303
    The damage from corruption in the Federal Government is felt by the Australian taxpayer in the waste of tax dollars and the loss of a fair and democratic society, writes Ken Carroll.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/corruption-is-an-endemic-problem-in-the-coalition-government,16304
    Laura Chung reports that the introduction of vehicle and fuel emission standards will be required for support from North Sydney’s independent candidate Kylea Tink if she’s successful in next month’s election and the Coalition and Labor are unable to form a majority government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fuel-emission-standards-on-radar-as-independents-name-policy-priorities-20220428-p5agu2.html
    A former Liberal Party member running as an independent in the marginal inner west Sydney electorate of Reid will direct her lower house preferences to the Labor Party ahead of sitting government MP Fiona Martin in a move that could threaten the Coalition’s hold on the crucial seat.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-lose-preferences-in-must-win-marginal-inner-west-seat-of-reid-20220428-p5agxe.html
    Marlee Bower and Marie Teeson say that it is clear the major political parties have forgotten young people, and as Australia’s Mental Health Think Tank points out in its latest policy paper, this critical omission will have significant repercussions on the mental health of this group. They say it is time for politicians to talk about the youth mental health crisis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-for-politicians-to-talk-about-the-youth-mental-health-crisis-20220425-p5afwr.html
    Medical journalist Margaret Rice explains the cultural change needed to ensure a good death in nursing homes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-cultural-change-needed-to-ensure-a-good-death-in-nursing-homes-20220427-p5agkn.html
    Meanwhile, thousands of personal carers, administrative and support staff have notified work stoppages for up to six hours on May 10 in Queensland, South Australia and West Australia in support of a 25 per cent wage increase.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/aged-care-workers-to-strike-during-election-campaign-20220428-p5agtp
    Rachel Clun tells us what inflation – at its highest rate in more than 20 years – is doing to the cost of our Aussie burger.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/here-s-how-inflation-is-super-sizing-the-price-of-your-burger-20220428-p5agrk.html
    More from Rachel Clun who writes that the Australian Tax Office has failed to collect billions in unpaid superannuation each year, with a damning audit finding the reactive approach is costing workers whose bosses are breaking the law. The audit found that, instead of proactively hunting down employers who fail to pay super, the ATO is using a “low-touch nudge” approach, which has meant less than 15 per cent of unpaid superannuation is collected annually.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/appalling-record-tax-office-failed-to-collect-billions-in-unpaid-superannuation-20220428-p5agw1.html
    Hal Pawson lays out the priority actions for the next federal housing minister.
    https://johnmenadue.com/priority-actions-for-the-next-federal-housing-minister/
    As the world becomes a more dangerous place, things we take for granted, like global trade in food, may be far more vulnerable than anyone realised, warns Paul Krugman.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/food-fertiliser-and-the-future-in-the-firing-line-as-the-world-becomes-more-dangerous-20220428-p5agpn.html
    Daniel Andrews took questions from reporters but refused to comment on the revelations he was secretly grilled by Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-quizzed-about-anti-corruption-watchdog-probe-20220428-p5agqq.html
    Latika Bourke reports that Australia’s former foreign minister Alexander Downer has savaged the decision by Foreign Minister Marise Payne to let the UK High Commissioner’s posting fall vacant during the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/downer-disappointed-in-payne-for-leaving-uk-post-vacant-during-queen-s-platinum-jubilee-20220428-p5ah1y.html
    Not a particularly impressive day in court yesterday at the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation trial. Michaela Whitbourn reports that a former elite soldier backing the war veteran in his defamation case has defended dressing as a Ku Klux Klan member at a military party in Afghanistan, saying it was funny because a comrade was going in blackface.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-s-friend-won-prize-for-dressing-as-kkk-member-at-military-party-court-told-20220428-p5agto.html
    Wendy Carlisle writes that a study on concussion that purported to show the AFL was safely returning players to the game is claimed to have excluded almost 40 per cent of concussions in the relevant period, including two footballers who retired after repeated head knocks. This has a bit of a smell about it.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/players-who-retired-from-concussion-excluded-from-landmark-afl-study-20220408-p5ac0f.html
    Ben Schneiders reports that three Australian residents have accused Scientology of child trafficking, covering up multiple sexual assaults, forced labour and other abuses in a significant legal claim lodged in a Florida court overnight. It’s time to rid us of scourges such as this mob.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scientology-accused-of-child-trafficking-forced-labour-of-australians-20220427-p5aghi.html
    The disintegration of America continues as the Oklahoma house gave final approval yesterday to a Texas-style abortion ban that prohibits the procedure after about six weeks of pregnancy, before many women know they are pregnant.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/28/oklahoma-house-abortion-ban-passed
    “Arseholes of the Week” nomination must go to all those involved in this recent gangland effort in Sydney.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mahmoud-brownie-ahmad-ignored-police-warning-about-1m-price-on-his-head-20220428-p5agx2.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

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    Fiona Katauskas

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    Leak

    From the US











  22. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:26 am
    Has Morrison been lying to us about falling electricity prices? Almost starting to feel sorry for his train wreck of a campaign…
    —————————————————–

    If Morrison ever says the truth no one will believe him

  23. Re C@t @7:10

    ”The minor party’s top NSW senate candidate John Ruddick said it typically wanted a Coalition government returned, but had agreed to place Labor ahead of the Liberals on how-to-vote cards in both Reid and Bennelong in exchange for Labor’s fifth-placed preference in the senate.”

    Let’s hope that one doesn’t come back to bite a Labor Government on the bum in the next few years.

  25. Steve777,
    I’d be interested to know how many people follow the Senate HTV? Even I have always gone my own way in the Senate, while voting in the Lower House according to the HTV.

  27. Sorry I thought the story was about PHON preferences, but was actually LDP, which will have even less of a possible impact.

  28. C@tmomma @ #17 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 7:19 am

    Dr Bonham gets a guernsey in the 9Fax article about Reid:

    Reid is regarded as a must-win seat by both sides of parliament and is held by Martin on a 3.2 per cent margin. Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said even minor preference flows could threaten the government’s slim hold on the seat.

    Sydney’s worst roundabout gets $100m upgrade, work won’t start for three years
    “If [Baini] polls 10 per cent and a minority of her voters follow that recommendation, that’s significant damage in the context of a marginal seat; 1 per cent or 2 per cent damage is not nothing,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-lose-preferences-in-must-win-marginal-inner-west-seat-of-reid-20220428-p5agxe.html

    Renouncements-R-us. It just serves to emphasise the hollowness of the promises.

  29. Voodoo Bluessays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 2:11 am
    Today’s thirty year olds will NOT be voting the same way when they are sixty .
    Some of the Tories most rusted on demographics like self funded retirees are going to significantly increase as proportion of the electorate as we move forward.The electorate is greying the young always the strongest voting block for Labor is a shrinking demographic. As people get older many of them accumulate and or inherit wealth and over time they migrate to the party they think will confiscate the least of it.

    ——————

    Spot on Voodoo. Here are some stats to back your observations.

    Over 65s PRIMARY VOTE 2019 COALITION 59% LABOR 29% OTHER 12%

    OVER 65 PROPORTION OF VOTING PUBLIC
    STATE 2019 2022
    NEW SOUTH WALES 23.4% 24.7%
    VICTORIA 22.5% 23.7%
    WESTERN AUSTRALIA 21.8 % 23.1%
    SOUTH AUSTRALIA 25.8% 26.9%
    TASMANIA 26.9% 28.4%
    ACT 18.5% 19.4%
    NT 12.4% 13.9%
    NATIONAL 22.9% 24.1%

    In some key seats the over 65s have an increasingly larger influence on the electorate outcomes. In Bass over 65s jumped from 27% to 28.4% between 2019 and 2022. In Braddon the of 65s jumped up from 28.6% to 30.1% in the same period. That is Labor’s problem.

    The Coalition’s problem is the discontent of both educated inner city voters and conservative populism out in the burbs and regional Australia tearing at them from both ends and the Liberal-National coalition is going to get tougher to hold together.

  30. Very interesting sceptic, great reply from Annika Wells, I think she’ll romp it in. I didn’t watch this episode and watching the boarish Stan Grant interrupt her response and flow tells me I made a good decision.

  31. With reference to Downer and Brandis, it would be timely to give publicity to Barry (ex Military) and his opinion of politicians in diplomatic posts, an opinion which was damming

    And I thought the carry on of a sexual nature on these sites waa courtesy of Wilson, a very unpleasant individual if there ever was one

    And, as a fully self funded retiree in the demographic described, my voting patterns changed during the 2004-2007 period courtesy of the economic vandalism of the Howard government for which Australia today still pays

    Plus environmental concerns

    Plus the lurch to the right by the Liberal Party

    We have children and grandchildren

    And I am not the only one from my social circle

    Morrison is on the nose

  32. If that list of bases and airfields proposed in the Solomon Island’s China deal is true, it’s the cheapest strategic victory won by a major power in a very long time.

    Japan lost major forces it couldn’t afford to lose trying to secure that territory. China has just been handed it by spectacularly poor foreign policy.

    This government’s legacy is going to be written of in history books with not one positive word.

  33. Odds slightly shortening for a Labor win.

    Sportsbet
    ALP $1.45
    Coalition $2.70

    Betfair
    ALP $1.50
    Coalition $2.90

  36. Could the younger people commenting here about the Over 60s take a dose of reality? A lot of us came up through the period in recent history where monumental struggles against the social hierarchy and the social conservatives strictures around society occurred and there is NO WAY that, as we age, whether we have accumulated wealth or not, we would EVER vote to go backwards to that era by voting for the political parties who wish it now!

  37. One would imagine the over 65 vote to the coalition in 2019 was inflated by the “retiree tax” and franking credits scare campaign.

  38. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/29/on-the-cards/#comment-3881339

    I am surprised BludgerTrack has the 2.PP swing away from the fed gummint since 2013 (1996, 1975 …) at only about 5.4%. (Then again the other night I put it in the ABC calculator, showing many seats changing, overall.)
    And as to ‘leadership’, the present PM has a 10% advantage minus the Bonham incumbent advantage would make that a negative too.
    Hmmm, the Fibs/ Nats are bad on … advancing Australia, fair, “good” on blowing humanity up, clearing land, emissions … photo-ops without follow through?
    Governance (transparency, integrity/ fICAC/ CIC, accountability, campaign finance, useful FoI, direct democracy, removal colonial Union Jack from the flag then again apparently there’s no High Commissioner over in Londonistan after this month).
    Wuflu (quarantine/ aged, vax, testing).
    Climate crisis (flooding (finally bringing a hose, I guess to wash away the mud), fires (no air tankers but dollars for Hill Song is one post I remember), extreme weather).
    Social support before corporate welfare (here’s TGA on living standards, https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/apr/27/australian-inflation-rate-figures-give-the-lie-to-scott-morrison-claims-of-strong-economic-management, or take infrastructure when Telstra had the wires we got 100/ 5 Mbps, now with Nbnco 50/ 20 Mbps for the same dollars, and speed and quotas doubled every 18 months or so, Libs lite might have architected it, the Fibs/ Nats build it).
    Powershift (southern resources area a stepping zone to Antarctic claims, blue navy/ khaki, it would appear the Solomon Islands will be OBORed by the time them never never subs, Ports of Darwin NT/ Newcastle NSW see Red China container ships full of missiles, drones, special forces ‘surprises’, this side of the air sea gap, making Singapore or Solomon Islands of WW2, far away Gallipoli of WW1, a cherished memory, frontier wars mk2 ….).
    …

  39. ”
    Socratessays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:05 am
    Cronus

    That would exactly fit the Chinese playbook in other countries:
    1. establish agreement with country
    2. give money for port and airport facilities that turns out to be a loan
    3. wait till country is unable to repay loan
    4. take control of facilities, base Chinese air force and navy there.

    From the Solomons Chinese aircraft could control the gaps between New Guinea and New Caledonia. Exactly why the Japanese occupied them in WWII.
    ”

    Socrates
    True Chinese government is behaving like Loan Shark ( to put it mildly).
    Human nature being what it is desperate people go to Loan Sharks when normal Banks don’t do business with them.

  40. Sandman

    I agree that ageing tends to bring conservatism with it.
    For the nonce, I know four 70+ voters who are moving from far right Liberal (Seselja) to radical Indie (Pocock or Rubenstein) this election.

    My view is that this is actually conservatism in action. Older people have their traditional values and the are reacting to the radical libertarianism (a thieves market) of the Abbott and Morrison governments.

  41. ‘Henry says:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:02 am

    One would imagine the over 65 vote to the coalition in 2019 was inflated by the “retiree tax” and franking credits scare campaign.’
    ———————————-
    Without doubt. Another key was the actual or perceived threat to house prices.

  42. Thanks C@tmomma.
    I’ll be working on election day, but I can call into Empire Bay PS on my way home, to vote.
    I have to agree with you regarding HTV cards and individual voting, especially since Senate voting protocols have been streamlined. I still vote below the line for the candidates of my choice.
    As a former teacher and continuing advocate for public education there is NO WAY that I could ever vote for Deborah O’Neill. When we had the misfortune of her presence, as the local MHR, I chose to vote Green and other progressive candidates before numbering her square.

  43. Angry Josh:

    Josh Frydenberg is speaking to Patricia Karvelas on ABC Radio National and is still very, very angry, it seems, about the challenge he is receiving from Monique Ryan, who he calls the “so-called independent”.

    He has defended putting One Nation ahead of Ryan on his how-to-vote cards despite being a moderate, because he says Ryan’s votes will decide the electorate, as the Greens and Labor are running dead.

    He sounds furious about it, to be honest.
    (Guardian updates at 7:36)

  44. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 6:23 am
    Looks like Labor’s third Senate candidate in WA might also have some section 44 issues.
    watoday.com.au
    Taliban takeover prevents Labor Senate hopeful from renouncing Afghan citizenship
    Fatima Payman is in the winnable third spot on Labor’s WA Senate ticket and declared her situation in documents lodged with her nomination.
    ”

    Why pre-select Ms. Payman in the first place when ALP know the situation?

  45. I would have thought that Frydenberg might have been angry that millions of Australians are struggling with rent and with getting food on the table.
    Because of his incompetence.

  47. The theory that demographic change will lead us to the sunny uplands of an enlightened progressive Australia in X years, is a bit like the promise of commercial nuclear fusion: always 30 years away.

    Until the 2016 US election similar “demography is destiny” theories forecast that the Democrats would have an impregnable electoral college majority for generations. The Blue Wall, the original and the best, guaranteed it. A handful of years later the Blue Wall has been well and truly breached.

    As has always been the case, progressive political causes will only make headway against entrenched and powerful interests, if citizens who care go out of their way to champion them

  49. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:58 am
    Could the younger people commenting here about the Over 60s take a dose of reality? A lot of us came up through the period in recent history where monumental struggles against the social hierarchy and the social conservatives strictures around society occurred and there is NO WAY that, as we age, whether we have accumulated wealth or not, we would EVER vote to go backwards to that era by voting for the political parties who wish it now!

    —
    Fair call Cat but 59% of the over 65s vote for the Conservatives. You and I are among the 29% who don’t and would never switch. Therefore, there has to be plenty of voters who vote progressive in their 30s but switch to conservative over time, otherwise the currently pro conservative over 60s vote would be going the other way towards progressive favouritism. I hate it when people lump us ‘oldies’ all into the same conservative basket, which I suspect is probably what troubles you most, but the Labor Party will have to find ways to improve their proportion of over 65s primary vote in the future IMHO.

  50. citizen @ #43 Friday, April 29th, 2022 – 8:08 am

    Angry Josh:

    Josh Frydenberg is speaking to Patricia Karvelas on ABC Radio National and is still very, very angry, it seems, about the challenge he is receiving from Monique Ryan, who he calls the “so-called independent”.

    He has defended putting One Nation ahead of Ryan on his how-to-vote cards despite being a moderate, because he says Ryan’s votes will decide the electorate, as the Greens and Labor are running dead.

    He sounds furious about it, to be honest.
    (Guardian updates at 7:36)

    Yes, what right does anyone have to compete with the Liberals? Don’t they realise that the Liberals were born to rule? What do they think this is – a democracy? How date they. He will instruct the murdoch/stokes/ABC propaganda units to warn the public of supporting these blasphemous infidels! That will fix ’em.

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