No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
Arky says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:50 am
I thought Bellwether’s comment was blatant satire.
______________________________
I had been tempted to add something about a program of being woke from their mid-afternoon nap.
“Seems strange that some commentators in the media are drumming up the possibility that voters will turn their votes on transgender people in sport and ignore more substantive issues such as cost of living, integrity and climate change? Perhaps it’s a case of certain commentators wanting to believe it to try and craft a case for a LNP victory, but this theory seems fanciful to me and like they are clutching at straws.”
It seems to me to be an attempt at snowball effect, convince people other people believe it to open the flood gates of bigotry and hate.
What kind of a human would try to snowball a hate attack on trans kids? Morrison obviously. Absolutely disgusting.
You know when people see things going really really badly and say satire is dead. There is a reason for that.
mj says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:56 am
Seems strange that some commentators in the media are drumming up the possibility that voters will turn their votes on transgender people in sport and ignore more substantive issues such as cost of living, integrity and climate change? Perhaps it’s a case of certain commentators wanting to believe it to try and craft a case for a LNP victory, but this theory seems fanciful to me and like they are clutching at straws.
_____________________________________
There is a big difference between people agreeing with the views of transphobes because of cultural, religious or other ingrained outlook, and actually voting on that basis. If you ask them their views – as happened in the marriage equality plebiscite – they will tell you. But that doesn’t mean it will be front and centre in their election voting decisions. People will vote on how they see their own situation – so personal finances, security and potholes in the street.
Parramatta moderate
It was vic Labor who referred the matter to IBAC in the first instance
If Deves is “playing well in the suburbs and regions” (and I’m not convinced of that), then that’s easily countered by standing up and saying that both elite and community level sports already have rules for trans participation that work well, and that sports can and should be trusted to continue to find the balance between inclusion and fairness as they have done for decades. Dan Andrews was great on the issue the other day if the Feds need any pointers on how it should be done.
Bree @ #63 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 8:31 am
5.1% inflation is not mild, Canada’s rate is absolutely irrelevant.
Taylormade @ #32 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:49 am
Sukkar, TailoredMerde
From recollection Dan Andrews referred the matter to IBAC in June 2020.
Thanks for the roundup BK.
I have to say that my vote for the best cartoon of the campaign so far goes to Matt Golding for his Dutton-Dalek facing the ‘Pacific Step Up’. Pure gold there.
“Here’s how markets have shifted on the odds for a May 3 rate rise in the midst of an election campaign. Investors are pricing in a cash rate rise from 0.1% to 0.25%, with a 42% chance the increase will be to 0.5%.”
Those are quite impressive rises in % of base terms. A 250% increase in interest rates has been price in for May.
I still think the RBA will squib, they’ll cite election uncertainty or some complete rubbish to leave it for June.
@Boerwar
“Anyone else concerned about the stench of a racist troll on Bludger?”
Woosh!
How do you guys who effectively work in projects all the time survive mentally. If I never ever see a ‘Day 1 critical’ email / project update / panic piece again it will be too soon. It drives me crazy. Well I need to head to an interdependency workshop. FML.
@Parramatta Moderate
You can’t think that just because a former ALP MLC MP, now Independent MLC MP Adam Somyurek was caught branch stacking, that the whole of VIC Labor is corrupt. And one more thing about the ‘union r carupt’ allegation. When Tony Abbott did a full blown Royal Commission into union corruption, they found NOTHING. A tool designed to get dirt on Labor (especially Bill Shorten), just made the shiny gold even more shiny.
west Australian:
Perth’s quarterly inflation was well above the national growth at 3.3 per cent, making 7.6 per cent for the year. The city’s home building costs soared an extraordinary 15.8 per cent during the quarter.
WA has a 7.6% inflation rate .
“@Boerwar
“Anyone else concerned about the stench of a racist troll on Bludger?”
Woosh!”
There is noone on this blog that thinks Boerwar needs external correction and internal reflection more than me. But you can’t pick a piece of US mainstream conservative weaponary and do satire on it. It just doesn’t makes sense. There is still a chance Morrison will pull a version of it out if the trans attack line doesn’t take. You just can’t sensibly satire possible / probably / likely outcomes. They say satire is dead for just this reason when reality is more absurd than satire, satire is gonna struggle. You can’t blame the reader for that, the author maybe dead but that is no excuse.
“Bree says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:31 am
Inflation is quite mild in Australia at 5.1%. In comparison, Canada has an inflation rate of 6.7%. You would much rather be in Australia right now than Canada.”…
Ha, ha, ha…. that’s truly hilarious. Hey, Bree, tell Scomo to go to NSW and SE Qld and tell them to be happy, because floods are far worse in Bangladesh…. Oh, and don’t forget to also tell him to phone the families of those 7,112 people who died by Covid so far (mainly elderly in aged care facilities that are Federal responsibility) to cheer up, because the Covid dead rate in the USA is much higher….
Dear me….. assuming that the electorate is just a bunch of Voting Morons won’t work in 2022 in the same way as it did in 2019….. The Liberals are about to learn a very hard lesson… 🙂
anyhoo interdependency workshop here I come whoo hooo
NSW :
The state has recorded 19 more COVID-19 deaths.
There are 1,701 cases in hospital, 76 of those are in intensive care.
There were 13,771 new cases announced today.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
PhoenixRed
Victoria hasn’t reported as yet. But the daily deaths continue to be very high
“NSW :
The state has recorded 19 more COVID-19 deaths.
There are 1,701 cases in hospital, 76 of those are in intensive care.
There were 13,771 new cases announced today.”
It is really lucky that ‘business as usual’ isn’t killing any9one at all. I would have thought lives that matter would have been lost, but it appears covid only kills Australian’s we don’t care about. Imagine if 19 people had been killed by non-white people yesterday, I’m sure we’d ignore that just like we ignore the covid death toll.
And the way in which the Age has reported the IBAC matter and Daniel Andrews as per usual is pathetic. Somehow trying to implicate him. When it is not the case. As I said, it was Andrews who referred the matter to IBAC in the first instance.
The first thing if Labor is elected must do and that is establish aNiMaLS and then get onto ICAC
Victoriasays: Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 9:25 am
PhoenixRed
Victoria hasn’t reported as yet. But the daily deaths continue to be very high
……………………………………………………..
As I said before – relaxed rules and winter on the horizon is going to raise cases and deaths : (
Age Pension, I just got the $250 dollars from Mr Morrison, that should take care of inflation and the cost of living. Now I can afford 2 cans of Pal per day and a plastic bag to pick up my shit.
Another billionaire I am not a fan of. But did he cheekily bell the cat with respect to Elon Musk and the twitter deal
Jeff Bezos
@JeffBezos
·
Apr 26
Interesting question. Did the Chinese government just gain a bit of leverage over the town square?
Quote Tweet
Mike Forsythe 傅才德
@PekingMike
· Apr 26
Apropos of something:
Think this is interesting to note.
At the beginning of the campaign, there was a poll on nine.com.au which showed 88% of voters would not change their minds about the election and had their votes locked in.
Today, a poll asking whether a change in interest rate would change votes indicates over 22% say it would.
Not a good sign for the Coalition.
[MikeKsays: Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 9:30 am
Age Pension, I just got the $250 dollars from Mr Morrison, that should take care of inflation and the cost of living. Now I can afford 2 cans of Pal per day and a plastic bag to pick up my shit.]
I might buy a house/supermarket/child care centre/hospital with mine…
Are you incontinent MikeK? Hope you haven’t Defecated at a branch mtg ?
MikeK
Thanks for the chuckle!
@WeWantPaul
“There is still a chance Morrison will pull a version of it out if the trans attack line doesn’t take.”
Thanks, absolutely fair game for satire then.
I’ve noticed the lnp aren’t using branding or pictures of scomo in their campaign material… I wonder why.
Scomo in another lnp seat in qld – leichardt which has a 4.2% margin.
VE,
2PP is a population estimate of the mean Labor and Liberal vote in a forced choice.
The difference between the 2PP for classic divisions and 2PP for non-classic divisions in the 2019 election results is small – around 0.21%.
The overall TPP in 2019 was 51.53 LNP%, 48.47% ALP
In “classic” divisions the TPP was 51.55% LNP, 48.45% ALP
In “non-classic” divisions TPP was 51.32% LNP, 48.68% ALP.
The TPP vote in non-classic divisions overestimated ALP vote share, and pulled overall TPP *higher* than the vote ALP achieved in classic divisions.
So the issue is not that TPP underestimates Labor, rather that the increasing number of non-classic divisions will increase the currently small *overestimation* of ALP’s standing in classic divisions.
I’ve been meaning to post this for a while.
What it shows is the difference between TCP and TPP for Labor and Liberal since 2004.
You’ll note that at the 2013 and again at 2016 election there was an increase in gap between TCP and TCP for Labor. LNP has remained relatively steady over the same period.
2019 was the first election where that divergence would have had an influence on Last Election TPP flows. Teals are likely to increase that divergence by around 1-1.5% in 2022.
MikeK @ #125 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 9:30 am
That wasn’t meant to be spent on food you dill,it was to buy your vote! 😉
PhoenixRed
Everyone should be triple vaxxed for covid and vaxxed for the flu,
Also wear masks in public settings.
This thing isn’t over yet.
”
The Australian inflation rate gives the lie to Morrison’s claims of strong economic management, argues Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/apr/27/australian-inflation-rate-figures-give-the-lie-to-scott-morrison-claims-of-strong-economic-management
”
This LNP government has the worst economic management record since Fraser LNP government.
Victoriasays: Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 9:34 am
PhoenixRed
Everyone should be triple vaxxed for covid and vaxxed for the flu,
Also wear masks in public settings.
This thing isn’t over yet.
***********************************************
A lot of Victorian teachers ar in for the high jump :
Victoria stands down 420 public school teachers over vaccine ..
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/victoria-stands-down-420-public-school-teachers-over-vaccine-mandates
About 420 public school teachers across Victoria have been stood down for failing to meet Covid vaccination requirements
No jab, no job! Dan Andrews is due to stand down THOUSANDS of teachers tomorrow for failing to get a Covid-19 booster shot
Thousands of teachers due to be stood down for not getting third Covid-19 jab
Victoria and Northern Territory the only states to mandate booster for teachers
Loss of thousands of teachers due to vaccine mandate causing staff shortages
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10756697/Dan-Andrews-stand-THOUSANDS-teachers-tomorrow-failing-Covid-jab.html
Musk and Bezos, all the proof you need that the correct number of billionaire oligarchs in a civilisation is zero.
“Thanks, absolutely fair game for satire then.”
yeah I don’t think satire means what you think it means, for example from this definitinon:
“the use of humour, irony, exaggeration, or ridicule …”
you omitted the humor, irony, exaggeration or ridicule bit which is pretty important.
PhoenixRed
The daily mail looks like it is exaggerating the numbers. 1000s of teachers?
Tested positive to Covid this morning. Just inevitable really as no one seems to give a shit anymore.
“Tested positive to Covid this morning. Just inevitable really as no one seems to give a shit anymore.”
Good luck with the fight / recovery!
@WeWantPaul
I think, considering this Government’s ongoing love of importing culture war topics from the US, I could possibly claim I directed ‘irony, exaggeration and ridicule’ at them. As for ‘humor’ (I personally prefer humour), well that is a purely subjective notion.
King OMalley says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:44 am
ALP now into $1.45 on Sportsbet (LNP out to $2.70).
This produces an implied probability of 65.1% of a Labor victory.
————-
That’s pretty close to the probabilities suggested by the various models out there.
As the folk at 538 have pointed out with the similar models used for US elections, those numbers need to be interpreted with care. It’s easy to think that 65% sounds unbeatable. But we experience 1 in 3 events quite routinely.
Many people took Trump’s forecast probability of victory in 2016 at ~30% as meaning Clinton had it in the bag. In fact it means that if you run 100 simulations Trump wins 3o of them.
However, in this case the modellers seem to project the chance of outright Coalition victory at the moment as in the 10-15% range with the probability of a hung parliament around 20-25%. An ALP majority is still the most likely overall outcome at the moment.
Sorry to hear steve, hope the recovery is swift and complete.
Bellwether, I thought you were joking, but wasn’t 100% sure. Sometimes it is best to let go of a joke that bombed!
“@WeWantPaul
I think, considering this Government’s ongoing love of importing culture war topics from the US, I could possibly claim I directed ‘irony, exaggeration and ridicule’ at them. As for ‘humor’ (I personally prefer humour), well that is a purely subjective notion.”
I guess I still think a reader is more likely than not to read it is genuine rather than satire.
Victoria :
There have been another 10 COVID-19 deaths in Victoria.
The state has 445 cases in hospital, with 35 of those in intensive care and seven requiring ventilation.
There were 10,427 new cases today and 52,031 active cases in the state.
”
Breesays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:31 am
Inflation is quite mild in Australia at 5.1%. In comparison, Canada has an inflation rate of 6.7%. You would much rather be in Australia right now than Canada.
”
Deflection. Nobody in Australia cares what Inflation rate is in Canada or any other overseas country. We live in Australia and we care about our Inflation rate because it is affecting our Cost of Living.