No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
bug1 says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:05 am
Scott: hmm, i didnt consider that an ICAC might get their hooks into the media as well, sounds promising.
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The ICAC can look into any political connections that are linked with the lib/nats , Murdoch, Costello , IPA and other media
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:35 am
23 days to go? I am not sure the long campaign is going to work out for Morrison. The narrative of the ALP in chaos was only ever going to last so long.
”
LNP and Media are projecting as usual.
‘After years of inaction toward saving our koalas, another term for the Morrison Government would result in their extinction, writes Sue Arnold.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/vote-for-the-morrison-government-and-say-goodbye-to-our-koalas,16299‘
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Not true. End of story. This is the sort of article that discredits people are seriously concerned about the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
One thing I think I can predict. That after the election, whoever wins will count on earning a lot of revenue from exported LNG. Putin has started cutting off his nose despite his featureless face and has stopped gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland because they won’t pay him for it in Rubles.
outside leftsays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:01 am
Sandman, Gilmore has a one notion candidate
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Yes but the ones I listed are in seats currently held by Liberal MODERATES specifically. Gilmore is held by a Labor MP at the moment. PHON is contesting all seats except 2 from memory.
Thank you, BK. Good morning all. Mizzle, grey and a visit to the fang farrier – not my fave way to start the day.
What I can tell you is that “Kooyong 200” (so Frydenberg) kicked a substantial donor out – including escorting him from a function at their chosen hotel venue – drink in hand
There is since a history between the agitated Frydenberg and thus individual, Frydenberg having deemed to attempt to further attack this individual and his family including for residing on their family farm during lock down – so petty in the extreme by the childish Frydenberg
The person Frydenberg is so spooked by?
He is associated with the (increasing number) of Teal candidates and is the son of Australia’s first billionaire
At least he got to buy a drink before being escorted from the hotel premises!!!
Frydenberg is not fit for public office
Sandman says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:42 am
Not much help for Labor here except in Brisbane, Hasluck, Leichardt and possibly Banks, Bass and Reid
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Thanks for the analysis Sandman. I’d happily see any help available to defeat the Libs in those seats. That’s a pretty strategic set of 3 (or 6) seats.
”
Cronussays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:51 am
Given that most issues appear to be running against the government (at least to a small degree) in this election campaign, it appears that they are relying on a Stockholm syndrome strategy.
The aim appears to be to convince voters that despite the fact the Coalition got us into this position after nine years, illogically, it would be dangerous to now give Labor a go. The emphasis as always is on fear of change.
”
LNP said earlier that things are hunky Dory for Australian people and hence they should vote for LNP.
Now LNP especially Frydenburg are saying that things are bad and uncertain and people should vote for them.
So, it doesn’t matter whether things are good or bad, LNP are saying that Australia people should vote for them.
Can that be classified as Chutzpah?
maxsays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:17 am
Sandman says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:42 am
Not much help for Labor here except in Brisbane, Hasluck, Leichardt and possibly Banks, Bass and Reid
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Thanks for the analysis Sandman. I’d happily see any help available to defeat the Libs in those seats. That’s a pretty strategic set of 3 (or 6) seats.
YEP. Any 3 of those six would be very handy for Labor indeed.
”
Ancientsays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:02 am
I doubt transgender issues will play a big role in who you vote for.Cost of living , climate change ,and very clear corruption by coalition and their Oligarchs will be significant. I accept there are not enough mindless idiots around who will take the transgender bait as a vote changer
”
As Cronus posted now LNP only strategy seems to be for voters to have Stockholm syndrome or Goldfish memory.
I miss CTar1’s analysis of naval issues.
BK
A big serving this morning, thanks so much
Inflation is quite mild in Australia at 5.1%. In comparison, Canada has an inflation rate of 6.7%. You would much rather be in Australia right now than Canada.
ABC RN: MRyan interview is very impressive. She comes across as someone who will arrive at parliament fit for work.
If JF secret fund of $1.1M donators have benefited from Jobkeeper while showing a profit, would that be a matter for FICAC?
Anyone else concerned about the teaching of Critical Race Theory in long day care centres? I’m pretty sure Albo has plans to implement it.
This election, with the Coalition focus on culture war issues and not much else, reminds me of Vic 2019. “Insiders” then were saying it was working too, and we all saw how that played out.
Albanese could do worse than use that Cathy Wilcox cartoon as a roadmap (thanks again BK for the Dawn Patrol). It beautifully sets out why Morrison has screwed every key area of policy – actually it does leave out the covid vaccine rollout, you’d have to add that – in an orderly fashion.
Bree @ #63 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 8:31 am
😆 😆 😆
Comical Bree has turned up to try to save the sinking ship.
“One thing I think I can predict. That after the election, whoever wins will count on earning a lot of revenue from exported LNG.”
What revenue is coming to the Govt from LNG?
Who left the gate unlocked?…..Some of the loonies have escaped again
Here
“ Inflation is quite mild in Australia at 5.1%. In comparison, Canada has an inflation rate of 6.7%. You would much rather be in Australia right now than Canada.”
And I’d much rather Albo than Morrison.
Cat
“Did you see the report that Marise Payne has replaced Peter Jennings at ASPI with her Chief of Staff?”
No I missed that. Typical. ASPI also has a huge conflict in accepting cash from defence contractors, while also being government funded. 1 or the other please.
The whole structure of Defence and security agencies needs to be put under the microscope. Even the standard of financial reporting, never mind competence at delivery, is poor compared to other project delivery departments.
Treasury and Finance too, have seen a huge loss of expertise since Abbott took over, compared to the days of Keating to Rudd. Hockey installed a lot of his favourite market ideologues instead of career economists. They have been in power long enough to promote like minds underneath them.
I think Labor is entitled to ask pretty serious questions about the AFP too.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-27/brittany-higgins-complains-afp-unlawfully-disclosed-evidence/101019424
That Federal ICAC can’t come soon enough. It isn’t just the politicians that are the problem.
WeWantPaul @ #69 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 8:36 am
Taxes from company profits.
”
The surge in inflation to its highest annual rate in more than 20 years comes at a difficult time for the Coalition because it has campaigned hard on its claim to be a superior economic manager, says the editorial in the SMH.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cost-of-living-rise-ruins-coalition-s-pitch-on-economic-management-20220427-p5agn0.html
”
So we always had high inflation at one point or other of every LNP government since Whitlam government
“Inflation is quite mild in Australia at 5.1%. In comparison, Canada has an inflation rate of 6.7%. You would much rather be in Australia right now than Canada.”
Lol the reality must be hitting koolaid circles: we are about to have a massive interest rate bump (series of bumps) because a corrupt politicised RBA has been trying to delay it to a Labor govt.
That Federal ICAC can’t come soon enough. It isn’t just the politicians that are the problem.
Hear hear. Just about everything the Coalition have got their hands on since they came to power has been traduced.
[Vensays: Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:39 am
So we always had high inflation at one point or other of every LNP government since Whitlam government]
We sure did – Howard also had the highest interest rates as well in 1980….
The LNP aren’t better economic managers, they just lucked into it.
Woke-pc-thug @ #78 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 8:41 am
Always after Labor put in the hard yards, made the tough decisions, then got voted out for their trouble. 😐
Lisa Millar still banging on this morning on ABC Breakfast about the Climate 200 group being a political party, even when its been refuted by the AEC.
She’s got to go post election.
ALP now into $1.45 on Sportsbet (LNP out to $2.70).
This produces an implied probability of 65.1% of a Labor victory.
If the Reserve Bank don’t put up the Cash Rate/Interest Rates in May, then they would be showing cause for big changes to be made after the election IF Labor win
Bellwethersays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:32 am
Anyone else concerned about the teaching of Critical Race Theory in long day care centres? I’m pretty sure Albo has plans to implement it.
—
Where is the evidence that Albanese is planning to introduce CRT to long day care centre’s ?
Methinks Bree has brought some of her play mate friends with her today.
ICAC have said in submissions that their current focus on the ALP is due to the information provided by ALP sources – noting the expulsions from the ALP due to Party Rules being broken and the administration being with administrators
So low hanging fruit
ICAC have also referenced the next stage of their proceedings – targeting other political parties
There will be some (many) in the Liberal Party with concerns once ICAC moves to the next level of its examinations
It as always wise to go to what the organ grinder says – not the monkeys
So ICAC itself
The ALP has acted in these matters
The Liberal Party has not
What rules does the Liberal Party have in regard branch stacking and associated activities?
Hence the defence “no rules have been broken”
And just to add, when coming to Melbourne in 1980, Commercial Bills were discounting at a lazy 25%
New home loans 17% (so not grandfathered at 13.5%)
Bellwether says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:32 am
Anyone else concerned about the teaching of Critical Race Theory in long day care centres? I’m pretty sure Albo has plans to implement it.’
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Anyone else concerned about the stench of a racist troll on Bludger?
C@T
Good pickup on David Johnson, I remember those comments well along with the storm that erupted. We’ll they’ve had nine years to do something about it and ……….. (crickets).
@Sandman
Psssst, the evidence is in a filing cabinet at the back of a used office furniture lot in Fyshwick.
How to piss off your neighbours without really trying:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/christian-porter-denied-justice-plea-from-indonesians-jailed-in-australia-when-they-were-children
I thought Bellwether’s comment was blatant satire.
@Arky
So did I.
It’s so disappointing to read about the disgusting state of the Victorian ALP. Nepotism, branch-stacking, rorting of taxpayers money. I have nothing but contempt for the LNP and it’s values-greed, bigotry, environmental vandalism. They will always be last on my ballot paper. But why should a desire to get rid of the LNP and strive for a better Australia mean that a blind eye should be turned to disgraceful conduct within the ALP? It’s not just immoral conduct, it’s also electorally stupid. Part of the world view of my conservative mates is that the ALP (and trade unions) are corrupt organisations. And here we have the Victorian ALP confirming that’s true! There has to be zero tolerance for this kind of behaviour within the ALP. It needs to be fixed-no excuses that the LNP do it too, that’s irrelevant.
“Anyone else concerned about the teaching of Critical Race Theory in long day care centres? I’m pretty sure Albo has plans to implement it.’”
I wish my kids had gone to a long day care that taught them university law units during the day. Would have saved them an me heaps and they’d have ended up even better people. Perhaps if whoever posted this had been taught basic humanity and manners at day care they would not be disgusting racist scum.
Sandman @ #82 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 8:45 am
I think that’s a sick joke, not to be taken at all seriously, by Bellwether. It also seems he’s been supping the Fox News Kool Aid heavily. ‘Critical Race Theory’ is an American history subject that attempts to explain African American history by putting the emphasis negatively but honestly on the White slave owners and slave traders who brought Africans to America against their will to work in the Cotton and Tobacco fields and as maids and servants.
So, absolutely no relevance to Australia. At all.
“I thought Bellwether’s comment was blatant satire.”
Yah. 🙂
Paramatta Moderate,
Then you should know that NSW Labor are doing their best to stamp out all those things you abhor.
CRT could have just as much relevance to Australia:
“Critical race theory (CRT) is a cross-disciplinary intellectual and social movement of civil-rights scholars and activists who seek to examine the intersection of race, society, and law in the United States and to challenge mainstream American liberal approaches to racial justice. For example, the CRT conceptual framework is one way to study racial bias in laws and institutions, such as the how and why of incarceration rates and how sentencing differs among racial groups in the United States.[1] CRT is also used in sociology to explain social, political, and legal structures and power distribution through the lens of race.[2][3] The word critical in its name is an academic term that refers to critical thinking, critical theory, and scholarly criticism, rather than criticizing or blaming people.[4][5] It first arose in the 1970s, like other “critical” schools of thought, such as Critical Legal Studies, which examines how legal rules protect the status quo.”
When I studied at the Crime Research Centre at UWA there was a lot of units that essentially crossed over with CRT, but in an Australian context.
Boer, I doubt the Indonesian government is concerned by such cases any more than they care about annoying us with death penalties for Australian citizens in drug cases. It speaks more to what a shit AG and a shit person Porter was and is. Imagine being a worse AG than Brandis!
Seems strange that some commentators in the media are drumming up the possibility that voters will turn their votes on transgender people in sport and ignore more substantive issues such as cost of living, integrity and climate change? Perhaps it’s a case of certain commentators wanting to believe it to try and craft a case for a LNP victory, but this theory seems fanciful to me and like they are clutching at straws.
“Morrison led on having a …. firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%”
Ha, ha, ha…. I wonder how many of them have changed their mind after the latest economic news: “inflation increases to 5.1%, highest rate since GST”!!
When reality bites hard…. stupid myths retreat, and media propaganda can only slow down the retreat, not stop it!
Cronus,
You could almost say that, under the Coalition Australia will never be able to build more than canoes. And then the Coalition won’t even trust Aussies with that. 😉