No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
Alias
Are you joking. The Labor candidate for chisholm not photogenic. And Gladys Liu is?
Sheesh
Ms Nolan and Ms Deves might be mistaken for one another.
Bit Kim Novak in Vertigo.
Why on earth would Liu go on air to debate the Coalition’s ICAC? Where were her minders?
Woke-pc-thug says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:45 pm
The lnp has a cunning array of stunts….
_________
Certainly a load of cunning stunts from the lot of them, to bad Greg hunt is not standing as they rhymes with…..stunt
nath,
The last time someone got cancelled on PB I’m pretty sure it was you.
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:48 pm
nath,
The last time someone got cancelled on PB I’m pretty sure it was you.
_______
I take a licking, but keep on ticking.
So the Greens with their swinging ads and the Libs with the big swinging dicks. Just more of same, same.
B.S. Fairman @ #789 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:41 pm
And Deves is determined not to hide anything!
I must say that it had been rather a dull old day on the election trail before the cock-chokers swung into action. (I have taken the liberality of hyphenating the phrase.)
Are the Cock-Chokers the same as the Big Swinging Dicks?
Do they converge on the Prayer Room?
At last we have some meat on the Greens policy boners!
Ven @ #791 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
No they are not, Ven.
Victoria
Might be confused by the official posters of Lui that have a 6 year old picture that’s been airbrushed to hell and back. Garland at least looks like her own picture.
Boerwar @ #807 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:53 pm
You’ve overlooked Katherine Deves taking the puppies out for another walk. 😐
Victoria,
Am not joking. I tend to be a glass half empty type so when I saw the Labor candidate for the first time, I was somewhat disappointed on the very superficial level of aesthetics. I am a firm believer that these things play more of a role in influencing low-information voters than they should. Having said that, I would be thrilled to see Carina Garland knock of Gladys Liu, and she very well might do so.
As you would recall, Labor’s candidate last time was a person of Chinese heritage, and she came very, very close to winning. In such a seat, I thought it was a significant shift to go with a person who is not of Chinese heritage. It’ll be interesting to see how the whole China threat debate plays out in the context of a seat like Chisholm with an MP of Chinese heritage.
Catherine Deeves would be a big hit among people who already vote Coalition or Far Right. Maybe the whole purpose of the dog-whistle is to keep them from straying.
Growler:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:44 pm
[‘I could accuse you of being a cunning linguist.’]
Is that the best you’ve got? Things have moved on, dear, even if you haven’t. New posters to this site have lifted the level of debate – not that you’d be aware thereof. You’re stuck in the old paradigm. But don’t get me wrong, there’s still a place for you if you were to accept the obvious?
C@t
I hardly dare ask. Is ‘taking the puppies for a walk’ code for something the Cock-Chokers might use in their political advertising?
Herald Sun 28/04
From the branch stacking saga to the Red Shirts rorts and cover-up to hotel quarantine failures and collective amnesia at the Coate Inquiry to the astonishing budget blowouts on major projects to the CFA debacle to the bullying allegations detailed by former Labor MP Kaushaliya Vaghela, this is a government beset by scandal and incompetence.
_____________________
A pretty good summary from Rita.
nath says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:50 pm
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:48 pm
nath,
The last time someone got cancelled on PB I’m pretty sure it was you.
_______
I take a licking, but keep on ticking.
============================
Often licked but never beaten.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:55 pm
Boerwar @ #807 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:53 pm
I must say that it had been rather a dull old day on the election trail before the cock-chokers swung into action. (I have taken the liberality of hyphenating the phrase.)
Are the Cock-Chokers the same as the Big Swinging Dicks?
Do they converge on the Prayer Room?
At last we have some meat on the Greens policy boners!
You’ve overlooked Katherine Deves taking the puppies out for another walk.
________________________
Now that would be totally inappropriate in the prayer room
C@tmomma @ #812 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:55 pm
Adding a fresh perspective on that old saying: Tanks for the mammaries.
Are cockchafers a Greens thing? Asking for a friend.
Well we’ve had a fine demonstration of pearl clutching if nothing else.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:55 pm
You’ve overlooked Katherine Deves taking the puppies out for another walk.
_____________________
Got any photos ? Feel free to share.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:01 pm
Are cockchafers a Greens thing? Asking for a friend.
_____________________
Isn’t that really tight underwear of an unfortunate material or those awful skinny jeans
Courage Plus… Pussy Riot activist in Georgia .. she says” I don’t know I hope someone in Putins circle.. you know kills him.. that’s my hope”
“Now that would be totally inappropriate in the prayer room”
Depends on the prayer room in question. There are whole p0rn studios that see less action then the Parliament House prayer room is claimed to host.
My (free) advice to Bandt is that a Greens Stiffies Convoy (even if undertaken by phallus-shaped EVs) would not go down well in some parts off the Queensland electorate.
Scomo and co should go and eat a bag of dicks…
Boerwar, you’ve got cock on the brain.
nath says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:02 pm
Well we’ve had a fine demonstration of pearl clutching if nothing else.
_______________
of the pear necklace variety?
Who doesn’t nath… I think I’ll have chicken for dinner
The Greens’ Brissy Candidate Put Campaign Ads On Grindr & They’re Topping Morrison’s Photo-Ops
Brisbane Greens candidate Stephen Bates has truly levelled up on Scott Morrison’s photo ops and those big ugly United Australia Party billboards by taking his campaign ads to Grindr. It’s called knowing your audience, babes.
This isn’t the first time The Greens has topped, tailed and targeted its ads. Melbourne Greens candidate Sam Hibbins served geo-located ads on the gay dating app in 2014. He promoted Greens events held at gay clubs, which is a fucking genius idea. Poppers and politics, it’s the way to go.
…
He told PEDESTRIAN.TV that the ads were about “meeting people where they’re at”.
“I’m gay myself and I know Grindr itself plays a huge role in the queer community, if it’s for relationships or just meeting other people who are like you and knowing that there’s other people like you out there,” he said.
“As weird as it will sound to any gay person [hearing] this, it is a big place of community where a lot of people do come together.”
Bates also pointed out that Brisbane has one of the highest queer votes and one of the youngest voter demographics in the country.
Both Bates and the sitting Brisbane MP — the Liberal National Party’s Trevor Evans — are gay.
https://www.pedestrian.tv/federal-election-australia/the-greens-brisbane-candidate-grindr-campaign-ads/?fbclid=IwAR10VV_RLf7fKMsoZqITElo_H6DUQeTTKoOUgHEnlNl_Jh_h_O8FIlREg1k
alias
Do they have to work hard to get the Chinese vote to win the seat though? The Liberals have been tanking the relationship with China themselves, and Lui is just bad MP who doesn’t help anyone regardless of heritage. And certainly every economic pressure that sways elections is being felt in Box Hill and the Glen area. It would probably be more the middle class belt of the suburb where there are really votes to win for Labor, and Garland is a pretty typical candidate in that regard.
Despite having what you might call ethnic enclaves they don’t necessarily make up ethnic voting blocs.
Greensborough Growler @ #804 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:48 pm
Speaking of foul language, how’s the camel going, sweety? And is my namesake well? Not pissing on too many rugs, I hope.
Taylormade
These puppies?
BK. Goodness Gracious. You are helping the LNP.
Boerwar @ #773 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:38 pm
OK, you need to realise that you’re sounding like a grumpy old man who doesn’t get what these fandangled new words mean.
As someone from a generation that doesn’t actively hate the idea of homosexuality, I knew exactly what was meant, immediately. To “choke on a cock” is literally just another way to say “felate a person that has a penis”.
I’m rapidly approaching 40. The median age in Brisbane is below 35. Everyone between the ages of 15 and 40 understood what was being said, and they are the majority of Brisbane residents.
But sure, be upset that he might be using modern slang terms in an electorate that is full of younger people. And while you’re at it, go and yell at some rainbows.
You’re all too pissed to click on the link. The NSW Libs are still going for Morrison and his booby prize candidate, leaking like a sieve.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-investigates-leak-of-deves-warringah-nomination-form-20220428-p5agxp.html
https://instyleaustralia.com.au/anthony-albanese-grace-tame-in-conversation
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:04 pm
“Now that would be totally inappropriate in the prayer room”
Depends on the prayer room in question. There are whole p0rn studios that see less action then the Parliament House prayer room is claimed to host.
__________
Very true, i can see not the asset to the diversity in the LNP addressing the balance and being more inclusive in the Prayer room
I guess there is some importance to retaining the primary vote given there is funding based on each primary vote received ($2.756 per vote in 2019). If the Liberals lose 20% of their primary vote to UAP, PHON or Lib Dems candidates, even if they come directly back via preferences, then the bottom line of the party is going to be hit. This applies in both HoR and senate seats too.
Un-freaking-believable. Please tell me those photos are photo shopped
Be fair Ven, what Pacific Islander doesn’t love a ukelele.
My mind can’t boggle much more, come on election.
Ff
Will Bates incorporate some groovy cock-choking designs in his corflutes? You know. On account of how Brisbane electorate has a high proportion of queers in it? Why let the cisgender fascists stop Bates from saying what he really thinks?
“Thankfully we don’t have to worry about 5% inflation here in Australia”: Scott Morrison, February 2022.
https://twitter.com/AngryGoddessx2/status/1519467092306583552
Boerwar @ #793 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:48 pm
I suspect that the wheels have already started coming off, and candidates are starting to rebel against their minders, worried that they need to act to save themselves.
Would explain so much…
BK says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Liberal Party investigates leak of Deves’ Warringah nomination form
Katherine Deves’ nomination for the seat of Warringah was proposed by barrister Bridie Nolan, the new wife of Warringah MP Zali Steggall’s ex-husband, and she received a written reference from Sky News’ Brisbane bureau chief Adam Walters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-investigates-leak-of-deves-warringah-nomination-form-20220428-p5agxp.html
Maybe Rupert was impressed by the puppies…
Edit
Holding her up for the page 2 tradies vote.
I am convinced the Dutton is a Sontaran
nath says,
I take a licking, but keep on ticking.
Just before he gets the flicking!
The Liberal Party’s candidate for the seat of Isaacs has admitted he lives more than 20 kilometres away from the address he told the Australian Electoral Commission he resides at, potentially putting him in breach of Commonwealth law.
Candidate Robbie Beaton, who is pitching to voters as a “long-time local business owner”, claims in his electoral enrolment and Liberal Party preselection forms that he lives at the address of the Bridge Hotel in Mordialloc, which is in Melbourne’s southern suburbs in the Labor-held electorate of Isaacs. He actually lives in inner-eastern Camberwell.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-live-in-camberwell-victorian-liberal-candidate-admits-to-listing-false-address-20220428-p5agwm.html
GlenO says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 8:09 pm
Boerwar @ #773 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 7:38 pm
‘jt1983 says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:35 pm
“Homosexual” – FFS.
It’s a joke Joyce. I don’t usually defend the Greens, but he’s a gay candidate leaning into the electorate’s sizeable gay community … who GET the joke.
It’s also not anything to do with being actually choked.’
————————————————
Oh, so choking on a cock is a joke. That is alright then. I wonder if he knows that a large majority of his electorate is not actually gay? Not to worry. They can go choke on a cock. Right?
OK, you need to realise that you’re sounding like a grumpy old man who doesn’t get what these fandangled new words mean….’
————————————–
Why is it that the Greens go straight to personal junking when they are confronted with some of their irrational behaviours?
BTW, ‘fandangled’ is sooooooooo past its use-by date!
This time last election the Greens were busy castigating Labor for trying to talk differently in different electorates about c**l mining. Now the Greens are talking VERY differently differently to different segments in their electorates this time this election. I get why the Greens are doing it. They have a lust for power.
But here is the thing. I bet they will not send pamphlets into every letter box in the electorate extolling the virtues of cock choking over c**l.
Will they?