No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
Not something I was aware of:
Gabe Sanchez @iamgabesanchez · 12h
Elon Musk only has ~$2.8B in cash and cash equivalents.
Elon has to personally cover $21B of the $44B Twitter deal (not secured).
Elon will owe Twitter a $1B break-up fee if he can’t secure the financing.
Elon is stuck lol.
Don’t worry all. JWH has said cost of living is not an issue.
“Former prime minister John Howard said “I don’t accept” there is a housing crisis in Australia and dismissed cost of living concerns for voters – the day after inflation hit a 20-year high.
The Liberal PM was swept from office in 2007 by Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party in a campaign when the government’s economic management was heavily scrutinised.
But Mr Howard said it was difficult to draw a comparison to his loss and the current campaign, insisting the struggles of daily expenses always played a role during federal elections.
“There are cost of living pressures now, there always are cost of living pressures,” he told reporters in Brisbane on Thursday.
“I can’t remember an election campaign where the cost of living was not an issue – every single one and I’ve been in quite a few.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-live-scott-morrison-denies-theres-a-climate-rift-in-the-coalition-as-nationals-senator-goes-rogue/news-story/59f30e436293958d1db0df565f29d893?amp
ltep @ #581 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 5:08 pm
Unless the Liberal party implodes… which at the moment isn’t entirely implausible, given the sheer volume of infighting, terrible news for them (like the inflation rate), candidates becoming laughing stocks or horrifying large swathes of people, and general public dislike of what the Coalition has done over the last 9 years.
Don’t get me wrong, I expect Wilson to be in the 2CP… but stranger things have happened in elections, and I don’t envy the Coalition at the moment.
Get ready you sand groppers!!!!
“Anthony Albanese is set to shift Labor’s campaign west once he busts out of Covid-19 isolation on Friday, but the Opposition Leader will have to “take things easy” under medical advice.
The return of Mr Albanese also brings to an end the rolling roster of frontbenchers – including spokesman Jason Clare, treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers and foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong – that have stepped up in his absence.
Notably absent from the cavalcade of frontbenchers has been education spokeswoman Tanya Plibersek.
The consistently popular Labor MP has kept her regular TV appearances but has not been present before the travelling media pack to answer questions on policy.
But Mr Clare batted away questions about Ms Plibersek’s exclusion from the roster, saying she had “a real impact” on the campaign and had been getting much larger audience coverage on shows like Sunrise.
He then turned the tables on the government, claiming numerous Coalition frontbenchers were in “witness protection” or “in hiding”.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-live-scott-morrison-denies-theres-a-climate-rift-in-the-coalition-as-nationals-senator-goes-rogue/news-story/59f30e436293958d1db0df565f29d893?amp
Loved that victory speech…..but what the crowd were chanting at the beginning has, for some unknown reason, been tarnished for me.
Getting stuck into a Hahn Super Dry right now, thirsty work indeed lads!
The new brains trust of Poll Bludger in operation today!
Q&A tonight – featuring Annika Wells, Labor MP for Lilly. Good opportunity for her to boost her profile. Downsides – Stuart Robert and Campbell Newman are on, and tonight’s host is Stan “look at me” Grant.
Larissa Waters on too, for Firefox.
Maybe Jason Clare should also advertise as was commented above – even Chirs Kenny has the hots for him……..There is a subtle shift in the Courier Mail.
“He’s the Labor man who has taken the campaign by storm, dubbed ‘Captain Handsome’ for his piercing good looks, and once voted Australia’s sexiest member of parliament – but who is rising star Jason Clare?
The MP and campaign spokesperson has taken centre stage on the campaign trial while leader Anthony Albanese has been in Covid isolation, earning praise for being both articulate and attractive.
As Sky News’ Chris Kenny observed: “He’s a handsome bloke, he’s got a lovely baritone.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/meet-labors-captain-handsome-is-jason-clare-a-future-party-leader/news-story/7209fe0d1558bdfb7413258d33e6a2bc?amp
Had a good experience with the Hahn beer, in the late 90s in Balmain my pub was Cat and Fiddle and there was a big barrel of hahn stubbies for $1 each as most people preferred the tap beer. Needless to say being a Yorksireman, $1 stubbies in the pub was just heaven.
Still at work ….but heading home soon for a well deserved refreshment. ….As for ‘brains trust” I might let the side down a little… I do do a nice line in silly jokes that usually fall flat
Fulvio Sammut:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:40 pm
[‘Gentlemen and others, there are limits.’]
There are? I’ve never seen this site so busy, optimistic, which certainly wasn’t the case in 2019, as most knew that Shorten would fall short. Folk need to release their relief valve, after nearly ten years of the crap served up by three successive Tory governments. Normal will return at about 7.30 pm, May, 21.
Beaglie Boy, Dr Fumbles McStupid: just found this gem from 1993, a little bit of the ABC election night coverage, and a much younger Antony Green
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-0PjXkhGE8
Deves – the Gift that Keeps Giving. The Captains Nose Pick still stuck to his finger….
“Liberal candidate Katherine Deves declared US President Joe Biden is “clearly showing signs of dementia” on social media this year before deleting her account when the Prime Minister announced her as his ‘Captain’s Pick.’
In the latest unearthed tweets to emerge, Ms Deves complained about the US President’s support for “very powerful and incredibly dangerous” transgender activists.
“At this stage, I do not believe Biden is capable of thinking much at all, he’s clearly showing signs of dementia,’’ she said in a tweet published on January 6, 2022”
https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/national/federal-election/clear-signs-of-dementia-katherine-deves-wild-joe-biden-claim-before-deleting-twitter-account/news-story/1e70c23527ab8b6b8dd1ae839aba4d65
Another 2nd place for Labor, not hard to see why either lol…
Scomo needs a good old pegging.
The media trying to convince us that Katherine Deves is apparently a huge vote winner for Morrison in outer suburban seats and even in Warringah(if you believe one journalist).
What are these people smoking?
Firefox: how optimistic are the Greens about the seat of Ryan?
Ummmm. Perhaps we don’t need the subs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6yceeRiKM0
nath,
If you are proud of your perversions, perhaps you and the Greens should publicise this to the voters rather than let a homosexual candidate from Brisbane fly the kite and carry the can.
If this is a serious issue that the Greens feel would be attractive to mainstream voters they should shout it from the rafters. At the moment the Greens are mumbling like their mouth is full of something unpleasant.
Pissheadbloke aka Evan
I have a triple scull bet on AG having a “swing to the ABC” gaffe
[Pissheadbloke aka Evan says: Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:28 pm
Firefox: how optimistic are the Greens about the seat of Ryan?]
Will the greens get more primary votes than the alp?
The margin is 6%…
Sceptic
“Is Gladys still stalling ICAC findings realise till after the election?”
No.
Extensions of time have been sought by ICAC as well as the former premier for the putting in of submissions such that process has not finished even though the evidence was finished about six months ago.
The failure of ICAC to keep the parties appearing before it under a tight rein in terms of evidence and submissions is doing it no favours. What has happened to the Sidoti inquiry?
The Wong inquiry only reported years after the event.
”
BKsays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 5:28 pm
The third rate cost accountants that infest businesses would trumpet the this represents a huge productivity improvement.
This is the chart that Chalmers et al should be brandishing!
”
BK
As some Liberal politician said wage restraint (or real wage decrease) is a feature than accident.
Sceptic says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:01 pm
Firefox says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:41 pm
2016..
Greens may push voters back to polls in event of a hung parliament, Bandt says…
———————
…adding that if voters don’t like it they can go choke on a cock.’
I think I’m getting the hang of Greens-style political discourse.
JayC says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Scomo needs a good old pegging
__________________
I am surprised the Greens for Brisbane didnt say
“The Greens will ensure the Govt gets a good pegging”
“Homosexual” – FFS.
It’s a joke Joyce. I don’t usually defend the Greens, but he’s a gay candidate leaning into the electorate’s sizeable gay community … who GET the joke.
It’s also not anything to do with being actually choked.
“Firefox: how optimistic are the Greens about the seat of Ryan?”
***
It’s one of our better chances I’d say. It’s held by the LNP, so if there is a swing against the Coalition in the cities as there looks like being, it could well be in play.
‘Firefox says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:40 pm
“I would have thought that choking someone with a cock is more or less in the same space but using different tools.”
***
It doesn’t mean you liberality want to choke someone, although that can happen sometimes but not in a bad way.’
——————————-
Golly. Now the Greens are dragging the liberalities into their sexualized political violence.’
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:30 pm
nath,
If you are proud of your perversions, perhaps you and the Greens should publicise this to the voters rather than let a homosexual candidate from Brisbane fly the kite and carry the can.
_________________
Eat a dick.
“It’s also not anything to do with being actually choked.”
Not that we’d kink shame, if it was, that would be very uncool.
Fire-fox says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Another 2nd place for Labor, not hard to see why either lol…
=======================================
Lol alright – Max Chandler-Mather and Penny Allman-Payne appearing on the one HTV!
From choking to hyphens the Greens’ sense of humour takes the cake this campaign.
Easy when you know you will never be in Government.
Katherine Deves probably is a big winner in the outer suburbs with the elderly. The issues she raises are big in the mind of pensioners who generally don’t have much connection with other issues.
‘jt1983 says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:35 pm
“Homosexual” – FFS.
It’s a joke Joyce. I don’t usually defend the Greens, but he’s a gay candidate leaning into the electorate’s sizeable gay community … who GET the joke.
It’s also not anything to do with being actually choked.’
————————————————
Oh, so choking on a cock is a joke. That is alright then. I wonder if he knows that a large majority of his electorate is not actually gay? Not to worry. They can go choke on a cock. Right?
alias says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:10 pm
Overall, I think she acquitted herself moderately well, all things considered. At the risk of being politically incorrect, I think Labor’s candidate is not particularly photogenic, which, like it or not, seems to make a difference.
—
Thanks for the laugh. 100% divorced from reality. Kudos.
For everyone else. Video embedded.
https://twitter.com/Trixie_Boo/status/1519609247788847104
Reezy Miller @Trixie_Boo
This is extraordinary. @Raf_Epstein tries three times to have Gladys Liu answer a question on a Federal Integrity Commission. Listen to this #AusVotes22
‘Des Devlin says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Katherine Deves probably is a big winner in the outer suburbs with the elderly. The issues she raises are big in the mind of pensioners who generally don’t have much connection with other issues.’
———————————-
Yeah. Yeah. They probably can hardly sleep worrying about the state of Biden’s mind. Good point.
Damn it’s gone full Lavender Scare in here.
Media analyst
Gladys Liu has admitted that she did not even know that the LNP’s ICAC model allows politicians to decide if an investigation takes place
Her performance at the Chisholm ABC forum is an absolute car crash https://t.co/VB7A06fX1j
nath,
The Greens need to put that on all their corflutes.
What say you?
Dr Fumbles McStupid: ha ha ha, all for a triple scull mate.
Got a man crush on Jason Clare, he is seriously good
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.379%2C$multiply_1.0423%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_0%2C$y_54/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/9e96385033664d4b7f0d9ee8847f0a7025121f63#image.jpeg
Got your attention?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-investigates-leak-of-deves-warringah-nomination-form-20220428-p5agxp.html
If Deves was a net positive for the Liberals, they wouldn’t be hiding her. Anything else is just BS.
Growler:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:30 pm
Trust you to refer to “perversions”. Poor dear, you can’t handle all these new posters, who appear to be not all that interested in your B. A. Santamaria crapola.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 5:43 pm
I couldn’t believe this when I saw it today. There’s a photo of Morrison meeting Sogovare at the Pacific Islands Forum. Sogovare presents Australia/Morrison with a beautiful piece of SI art:
And Morrison gives Sogovare from Australia…a freaking Ukelele, still with the shop tags on:
Words. Fail. Me.
”
Un-freaking-believable. Please tell me those photos are photo shopped
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:40 pm
nath,
The Greens need to put that on all their corflutes.
What say you?
___________
I like his campaign and there should be more of it. I approve of his message.
Des Devlin says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Katherine Deves probably is a big winner in the outer suburbs with the elderly. The issues she raises are big in the mind of pensioners who generally don’t have much connection with other issues.
==============================
True the cost of living doesn’t figure prominantly for the elderly on their fixed incomes. Dementia certainly does.
Mavis,
I could accuse you of being a cunning linguist.
But you’re not!
GG, It’s time for your prayers. Shuffle off now.
‘Firefox says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:36 pm
“Firefox: how optimistic are the Greens about the seat of Ryan?”
….’
————————-
They could be in like Flynn. I hear it’s a swinging electorate.
The lnp has a cunning array of stunts….
Pissheadbloke aka Evan says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:41 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupid: ha ha ha, all for a triple scull mate.
Got a man crush on Jason Clare, he is seriously good
____________________
Oh no it is AG for me
Fun fact, in about 2008 was working for Vic Govt doing some stuff with the People Democratic Republic of Moreland
Was there in this meeting doing the number and stats on the laptop about diversity and equity and other stuff and the comment was
Ohh its like having Antony Green in here…