No shortage of news around the place – starting with polling and the general state of the horse race:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports on Redbridge Group seat polls conducted for Equality Australia showing independent candidate Allegra Spender leading Liberal member Dave Sharma by 53-47 in Wentworth, and Labor’s Andrew Charlton leading Liberal candidate Maria Kovicic by 55-45 in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a 3.5% margin. Primary votes in Wentworth, after exclusion of 4.3% undecided, are Dave Sharma 38%, Allegra Spender 25%, Labor 17%, Greens 7% and United Australia Party 7% (the latter have been coming in a little high in some of these seat polls for mine); in Parramatta, after exclusion of 11.5% undecided, it’s Andrew Charlton 37%, Maria Kovacic 30%, Greens 12%, and the United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats on 8% apiece. Equality Australia is keep to emphasise findings that 67% in Wentworth strongly agree that “trans people deserve the same rights and protections as other Australians” and 62% in Parramatta strongly agree that schools should not be allowed to expel students for being transgender, although the former question especially rather soft-pedals the issue. LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sports were ranked dead last in both electorates as “vote determining issues”. No indication is provided as to sample sizes or field work dates.
• Further results from the Ipsos poll published in Tuesday’s Financial Review that previously escaped my notice: Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were both deemed competent by 42%, Morrison led on having a clear vision by 41% to 37% and a firm grasp of economic policy by 48% to 31%, and Albanese led on having the confidence of his party by 52% to 44% and being trustworthy by 41% to 30%. Forty-two per cent expected Labor to win the election compared with 34% for the Coalition.
• Two sophisticated new forecast models have been launched over the past week. That of Armarium Interreta “combines voting-intention polling with a sprinkle of leadership approval polling and economic fundamentals” and factors in extra uncertainty when the pollsters are herding, as they certainly did in 2019 but appear not to be this time. It currently rates Labor a 60% chance of a majority and the Coalition 13%. Australian Election Forecasts is entirely poll-based and features probability estimates for each electorate, including their chances of being won by independents or minor parties. It has a 67.2% chance of a Labor majority and 13.1% for the Coalition.
• Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group observes that demographic trends raise concerns for Labor in Greenway, which combines established Labor-voting territory around Seven Hills in the south with newly developing suburbs in the north. The increase in the electorate’s enrolment from 110,343 to 119,941 since the 2019 election will have been concentrated in the latter area: Samaras notes the median house price here is around $800,000, which is around $250,000 higher than comparable houses in Melbourne growth corridors that have been strengthening for Labor.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday that looked booth deep and wide at the One Nation and United Australia Party vote, the conclusions of which I riffed off during an appearance on ABC TV’s Afternoon Briefing program yesterday, which also featured Ben Oquist of the Australia Institute.
Local-level brush fires and controversies:
• Video has emerged of Simon Kennedy, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, providing obliging responses to members of anti-vaxxer group A Stand in the Park when asked if he would cross the floor to oppose vaccination mandates and breaches of “your community’s individual freedoms”. Kennedy responded with a statement to the Age/Herald saying he was “a strong supporter of the COVID vaccination effort”.
• A candidates forum in Kooyong was held last night without the participation of incumbent Josh Frydenberg, who objected to it being staged by climate advocacy group Lighter Footprints. However, Frydenberg and independent candidate Monique Ryan eventually agreed to Ryan’s proposal for a one-on-one town hall-style debate on Sky News after Ryan turned down a proposal for a mid-afternoon debate broadcast live on the Nine Network, which had been pursued by both Frydenberg and Nine political reporter Chris Uhlmann.
• Writing in the Age/Herald, Chris Uhlmann of the Nine Network quotes a Labor strategist saying the Katherine Deves controversy is playing “90/10 in Deves’ favour” in “the suburbs and the regions”. Lanai Scarr of The West Australian goes further, reporting that Liberal internal polling defies conventional wisdom (and the Redbridge polling noted above) in showing the issue is even playing well in Warringah.
Preferences:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that One Nation will retaliate against a Liberal decision to put the party behind the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Jacqui Lambie Network on its Tasmanian Senate how-to-vote card, by directing preferences to Labor ahead of selected Liberals deemed not conservative enough. These are understood to include Bridget Archer in Bass and Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.
• In the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, Labor has announced it will put independent David Pocock second on its how-to-vote card. This is presumably based on a calculation that Liberal Senator Zed Seselja is more likely to lose if the last count comes down to him and Pocock rather than the Greens, since Pocock is likely to receive the larger share of preferences. Labor’s Katy Gallagher will be immediately elected in the likely event that she polls more than a third of the vote, having polled 39.3% in 2019 – direction of preferences to Pocock will maximise the share he receives of the surplus.
Campaign meat and potatoes:
• Nikki Savva writes in the Age/Herald today that “Labor insiders tracking Morrison’s movements are intrigued by his visits to seats they reckon he has no hope of winning”, although Savva retorts that “maybe he knows something they don’t, particularly around the Hunter in NSW”. A review of the leaders’ movements by David Tanner of The Australian notes both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have spent slightly more time in the other side’s seats than their own, a fact more striking in Morrison’s case. Only Bass and Gilmore have been visited by both. Morrison has spread himself evenly across the country, but has been largely absent from the inner urban seats where the Liberals are threatened by teal independents, both personally and in party advertising. Nearly half the seats visited by Albanese have been in Queensland, but notably not central Queensland, where Labor appears pessimistic about recovering the competitiveness it lost in 2019. Jacob Greber of the Financial Review notes that Barnaby Joyce has twice visited the Victorian rural seat of Nicholls, where the retirement of Nationals member Damian Drum has the party fearing defeat at the hands of independent Rob Priestly.
• The Age/Herald calculates that the seats most comprehensively pork-barrelled by the Coalition have been Boothby, McEwen and Robertson, which have respectively been targeted with a $2.2 billion upgrade of Adelaide’s north-south road corridor, a $1.2 billion freight hub and $1 billion in rail and road upgrades. The biggest target of Labor’s more modest promises has been Longman, with Boothby in fourth place – the others in the top five are the Labor-held marginals of Corangamite, McEwen and Gilmore.
• Nick Evershed of The Guardian has “written some code that takes the records of Google and YouTube advertising, then converts the geotargeting data into electorates based on the proportion of the electorate’s population covered”. This has yielded data and interactive maps on where the major parties are geo-targeting their ads, including a specific breakout for a Scott Morrison “why I love Australia” ad that presumably plays better in some areas than others.
• The Australian Electoral Commission will not be running voting stations at around three-quarters of the foreign missions where it been offered in the past due to COVID-19 restrictions, requiring those living there to cast postal votes. This leaves 17 overseas countries where in-person voting will be available, which are listed on the AEC website. The Financial Review reports the move “has infuriated some expatriates in cities that will be affected, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Toronto and Vancouver”.
State affairs:
• The result for the South Australian Legislative Council has been finalised, producing the anticipated result of five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation. Including the seats carrying over from the last election, this puts Labor on nine, Liberal on eight, the Greens and SA-Best on two each and One Nation on one. The full distribution of preferences doesn’t seem to be on the Electoral Commission site, but Antony Green offers an analysis of it.
• In Tasmania, Peter Gutwein’s Liberal seat in the Bass electorate will be filled by Simon Wood, who won the recount of ballot papers that elected Gutwein ahead of party rival Greg Kieser by 6633 (61.0%) to 3132 (28.8%), with three non-Liberal candidates on 1116 between them.
@C@t I think if you closely at that picture he’s actually serenading Sogavare. April Sun in Honiara perhaps?
Oh, if slang is violent then slang is OK. Got it.
Cronus at 5.45pm re Morrison’s ‘shot’ at Albo…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-28/federal-election-campaign-albanese-covid-morrison-economy/101022882
I don’t have the right words, but I reckon an ALP attack dog could have a go along the lines of ‘Bit rich of Mr Morrison, who’s not renowned for his workload, especially in relation to vaccines, Pacific relations etc – Covid or not!’
That sort of thing.
FireFox,
For reference The Greens are not using that line.
https://www.pedestrian.tv/federal-election-australia/the-greens-brisbane-candidate-grindr-campaign-ads/
The ones they *have* used are pretty clever imo:
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:35 pm
Oh, if slang is violent then slang is OK. Got it.
_______________
Hey it’s young people’s language to evolve. My son told me not long ago to eat a bag of dicks.
BW,
A feather is titillation.
The whole cock is a perversion.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 5:20 pm
Lobotomised Shithead aka Dr F Mc @ #588 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 5:08 pm
……
I reckon if Tim Wilson doesn’t turn up to community events they should just bring out a volley ball with a face on for his seat
Wouldn’t be more appropriate to replace him with a tennis ball?
——————-
Ah, in the old days, they did the tub of lard for Roy Hattersley… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Have_I_Got_News_for_You
Gentlemen and others, there are limits.
“I would have thought that choking someone with a cock is more or less in the same space but using different tools.”
***
It doesn’t mean you liberality want to choke someone, although that can happen sometimes but not in a bad way.
Just Google it, mate.
Arky says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:10 pm
@Dr Fumbles “Sometimes I don’t think we lear anything from the past, the current dropping rates to next to nothing and holding it there is really pulling the slingshot right back, much the same a raising the rates in 89 to 19 percent was, putting a candle out with a fire hose”
I think in this day and age it wouldn’t get close to 19% before the PM of the day did whatever necessary (including emergency convening Parliament) to sack the RBA board and install someone less incendiary.
_________________
Oh of course not, rates were an order of magnitude above today primarily because of inflation, there was a need to maintain a high ‘real’ interest rate i.e. cash rate – inflation. negative real interest rates cause a few problems,particularly for retirees. High rates were used to stabliase the AUD which also had particular problems leading to more inflation.
My point is monetary policy is a very imprecise lever to pull, go too far one way and the econony collapses, go the other way and get runaway asset growth and inflation, the property market is a key example.
The economy pre covid was poor but not terminal, the covid recession was an external shock not structural and luckily there was a mechanism that alot of people kept jobs and income so we ended up in true v shaped recovery as a great deal of money was saved and later spent as delayed demand for goods and services.
In reality we didnt need the rates to fall as low or for as long but what has happened is it fueling housing prices to crazy levels and leaving alot of new entrants at risk from even modest increases in rates.
Firefox says:
It doesn’t mean you liberality want to choke someone, although that can happen sometimes but not in a bad way.
__________
I think GG is protesting too much. I think he knows more about this than he lets on.
Hear, hear! 😉
Morrison is a grub, hopefully the Daggy Dad from the Shire act has lost its shine.
@BW – unless you want this to “descend” – best you don’t use this as a moment for performative outrage.
If you know, you know. That’s all I’ll say.
Firefox says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:41 pm
Hear, hear!
______
He sounds like a blast. get him in there!
WOW….I come back and check in again and find that our afternoon bonhomie has devolved into This!!
lol
“Just Google it, mate.”
But not on a work computer. Unless your work is in political campaign messaging, I guess?
Pi
How can you say she’s doing a bad job when there are so many lovely new skyscrapers in Box Hill?
BeaglieBoy says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:45 pm
WOW….I come back and check in again and find that our afternoon bonhomie has devolved into This!!
lol
_________
Everyone is gagging for a poll…….
BeaglieBoy
Has it devolved, or is this the natural endpoint of planning to get sh*tfaced? Perhaps this is progress?
Sweet Jeebus, the Gladys Liu debate performance tonight was an absolute train wreck.
I think we can all safely chalk up Chisholm as ALP GAIN.
If you want to cut through just trigger some old conservatives. Easy as. 😆
nath says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:46 pm
BeaglieBoy says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:45 pm
WOW….I come back and check in again and find that our afternoon bonhomie has devolved into This!!
lol
_________
Everyone is gagging for a poll…….
_________________
Who knows, this place is turning into a Benny Hill sketch, choking chickens, the ooh errr Greens adds from Bris, no gagging it from you this should be PB After Dark
I am very broad minded, but will have to politely decline should our party wish my participation…..I am sure Mrs Beagle will frown upon such dalliance…or in fact any dalliances all of which are specifically prohibited
Would love some in depth seat by seat polling.
Just watched the Drum, the issue of rapidly increasing rents and lack of affordable housing is something Labor ought to say a lot more about. Wonder if Albo has a few big announcements he is saving for the big launch on Sunday?
somethinglikethat @ #721 Thursday, April 28th, 2022 – 6:48 pm
Turning up tonight is probably the only admirable thing she’s done in 3 yrs.
Any snippets from the Chisholm debate?
Apologies to the great William Bowe, I think myself, Beaglie Boy, Dr McFumbles and UpNorth totally lowered the tone in here today LOL
”
Upnorthsays:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 4:38 pm
Rewi says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 4:35 pm
The Treasurer again looking faded and jaded. Defeat will come as some sweet relief.
But for a moment, as the opportunity to engage in petty politicking arises, his eyes light up, his exhaustion lifts, despair banished as he relishes his chance to sink the slipper.
Here is a man who has never risen to the office he’s attained, and who, like his boss, never will.
中华人民共和国
To paraphrase Churchill “A sheep in sheeps’ clothing”.
”
As I read somewhere he is a “smiling conman “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbOB9PaLutw
Evan…I disagree….I think we blew the lid off of the joint (pun intended)
I saw Katy Gallagher on ABC this morning tying in Labors juicy Howard-esque cash bribe (childcare) to their overall economic policy. Very good messaging.
BeaglieBoy says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:53 pm
Any snippets from the Chisholm debate?
—
Basically knew nothing, and took most questions (even the most basic) on notice. You have to wonder what she’s been doing since being elected.
Also got tripped up on a proposed integrity commission. She spat out the standard Lib line about their proposal which wasn’t supported. It was then pointed out that the Lib idea gives politicians the power to decide if an investigation takes place. Her response was a dumbfounded ‘no idea’.
Sammy J’s latest on the election. Quite funny, and even-handed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5va1mO21cg8
A reworking of the Natalia Imbruglia cover Torn.
The fuelling of house prices commenced post the introduction of the GST in 2000 – by measures designed to avoid a post GST recession
Get it, people?
For confirmation look at the RBA data detailing the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders from 1990
The recession was evaded – there was only the one negative GDP quarter
The price of government legislation to evade that recession?
And the price of transmission of the proceeds of the Mining Boom of 2004-2007 (both inclusive) as that was distributed?
The circumstances of the Nation now are the result of decisions of the past
And the answer to Liu is donations – pure and simple
Their largest gatherer of donations
But where from?
Go searching
And I have contacts who know full well
nath,
If the Greens are happy to promote sexual perversions as a vote attracting option, then they should publicise it more widely.
However, I’m not sure that will help the voters of Brisbane get better hospital care for their sick children.
Perhaps you can enlighten the blog.
Facing defeat, Morrison and Co, with the help of Rupert and deep-pocketed allies, will fight like cornered rats. I wouldn’t put anything past them. Unless it’s a thumping defeat, and that seems unlikely, they’ll take a leaf out of Trump’s book and won’t regard the new Government as legitimate. Abbott tried that on in 2010.
Firefox says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 6:41 pm
2016..
Greens may push voters back to polls in event of a hung parliament, Bandt says
This article is more than 5 years old
Exclusive: Greens treasury spokesman rules out dealing with Coalition in hung parliament but warns Labor must meet party’s demands or face new election.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/09/greens-may-push-voters-back-to-polls-in-event-of-a-hung-parliament-bandt-says
A vote for the Greens is a vote for extortion.
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:00 pm
nath,
If the Greens are happy to promote sexual perversions as a vote attracting option, then they should publicise it more widely.
However, I’m not sure that will help the voters of Brisbane get better hospital care for their sick children.
Perhaps you can enlighten the blog.
____________
What Sexual Perversions are we talking about? A blow job? If you think that is a perversion you must have led a very uninteresting life old boy.
That Green ad does seem to be a bit outré. They wouldn’t publish it in, say, the Daily Rupert. However, it has appeared. in a niche publication with a readership that would not be offended.
Give me one good reason why this decent human being should not be our next PM.
“Mr Albanese sparked an emotional reaction from former Australian of the Year Grace Tame during a poignant conversation about being raised by a single mum.
Ms Tame probed Mr Albanese in an interview for InStyle Australia for an example of who shaped his “views on gender issues and policy”, with his response bringing the 27-year-old to tears, reports news.com.au
Mr Albanese shared how when his mum fell pregnant out of wedlock in 1963, it was “the fashion of the day” that babies would not be kept by either parent.
“She was going to have got the news that my father had died and then lost the baby and I was going to be adopted out,” he told Ms Tame.
“Because in 1963, when I was born, it was acceptable to be a widow but it wasn’t acceptable to be an unmarried mother.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-live-scott-morrison-denies-theres-a-climate-rift-in-the-coalition-as-nationals-senator-goes-rogue/news-story/59f30e436293958d1db0df565f29d893?amp
Is Gladys still stalling ICAC findings realise till after the election?
@Here we go again says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 7:00 pm
The fuelling of house prices commenced post the introduction of the GST in 2000 – by measures designed to avoid a post GST recession
_____________________
Was already happening, prices were rising in the mid 90s, from a lowish base particularly in Syd and Melb, Howard managed to speed it up no end with the first home buyer subsidy of 10K and the builder subsidy of 15K at the time.
Immediately added 10-15K to the prices of everything, the GST on building was worse.
Where can I listen to this Gladys trainwreck? I really need the encouragement.
“If the Greens are happy to promote sexual perversions”
I mean, if you’re gonna run ads on Grindr in the first place you might as well commit to the bit. It’s not exactly known for its sexual repression.
Beaglie Boy, Upnorth, Dr McFumbles – we’re the bad asses of Poll Bludger, blokes keeping it real while we get stuck into another keg or two.
Sky News funnily enough is hyping up Labor’s campaign launch on Sunday, reckons some big announcements are coming.
Another one bites the dust…
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-live-in-camberwell-victorian-liberal-candidate-admits-to-listing-false-address-20220428-p5agwm.html
The PB After Dark post election gathering has to happen – now pass me another Cartlon Dry, I have been posting thoughtful things
I heard part of the Gladys Liu debate. I think it’s a bit over the top to call it a “train wreck”. She struggles somewhat with expressing herself in English and also cited a “hearing disability” for not being able to hear questions properly.
Overall, I think she acquitted herself moderately well, all things considered. At the risk of being politically incorrect, I think Labor’s candidate is not particularly photogenic, which, like it or not, seems to make a difference.
Paul Keating’s victory speech from 1993, still brings a tear to my eye 30 years later
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwtR6bIIYKY
Yeah Dr….all this thinkin is thirsty work