Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns

The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues its slow narrowing, while Ipsos breakdowns point to significant Labor swings in the three largest states.

The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.

As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).

Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

954 comments on “Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

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  1. Morning all. Just finished Squid fishing (no Occys so you ok Bluey)

    Richo tears Morrison a new arsehole in the “Daily Toiletpaper” over the Solomon’s’ balls up.

    Yes that’s right it’s the Toiletpaper.

    Quite rightly points out that Townsville and it’s defence bases are now on the front line. “Now we know how Taiwan feels”.

    It’s the deadwood version and a mate who is in Sydney for work sent it. Also said it’s freezing down there and can’t wait to get Upnorth.

    https://imgur.com/a/4K6HBYM

  3. “If you want to enter politics, don’t run away from an interview or debate” says the man whose boss has been invited and refused to be interviewed by 7.30 countless times.

  5. What a cry baby Lil Joshy was in that press conference. Poor me, poor me, poor me. Can’t you all think about me 🙁

    Extraordinary performance. Can’t remember one like it.

  6. “What a weird line of thought. ”

    Phelps used a similar weird, divorced from reality, self serving absurdity at the time she was propping up the Morrison Govt with full and complete confidence but wanting to appear that she didn’t have full and complete confidence in the Government. Like deciding who should be the Govt and therefore PM was somehow not a thing MPs should do, despite it being one of their most important jobs in the Westminster system over centuries.

    I lost all respect for her and the teal movement at that point. Better than the LNP but that is a very very very low bar to get over.

  7. Josh has looked flat-depressed in his pressers all week and today his defence of the economy under a 5.1 inflation rate was pretty lame. He also spent half his presser talking down the Independent and claiming she refused to debate him twice – yes she did refuse but he has also refused to debate her on her patch where she wants to do it. She must be getting good numbers.

  8. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:02 pm

    BW,

    1. Morrison won’t be doing the negotiating. A number of the Independents have already said words to that effect.
    2. How does Morrison get the NATs in the Climaate Change boat?’
    ——————————————-
    Unlike us progressives, the Nats know that there is only one game in town: power. They will do what they always do – scramble to hang onto it.

  9. A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847.

    This was a poll from last week I think.

  10. “I believe that our nation will come out of this uncertainty stronger because we will charge forward with country values, courage, candor and selflessness and service.”

    Because Brig and her corrupt and incompetent mates will be out on their arses in opposition. Meaning their abilty to destroy the country with their spiv values, cowardice, deceit, selfishness and uselessness will be blessedly diminished but sadly not eliminated.

    And look I hold the Greens in total contempt most of the time. But there’s the square root of fuck all difference in if they pref Pocock 2 or 3. The important decision(s) will be how many of the other minor players (esp Rubenstein) put Pocock above the Greens. On the polling he’ll likely need a good percentage of these in order to get over the Greens and into the last count.

    But whatever happens Zed needs to tank really bad. You’d expect a lot of UAP votes to flow his way if he falls short of quota (3.8k UAP votes went to Z out of 6.1k first prefs in 19), so whilst there’s a lot of left candidates it doesn’t take too much leakage to get him up unless his primary is somewhere in the mid 20s. Of course that could be on, hence the interest, but from bugger all under quota at the last election to about 80% of quota that would have him in real trouble is still a bit of a reach. Especially when you consider that there will be a bit of exhaustion amongst the left meaning it’s quite possible that the second Senator might not even need to make quota – just have the highest vote at the last exclusion. Hope it happens, but not expecting.

  12. ‘Upnorth says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:11 pm

    Morning all. Just finished Squid fishing (no Occys so you ok Bluey)
    ………………………….’
    No probs. Bluey reckons that squid think they are a better class than occies. Born to rule. Stuff them. Eat as many as you like.
    Curious: did you jig over weed or next to a structure?

  13. LTEP

    “Liberal candidate Nicole Tobin believes fat people should be banned from drinking soft drink, overweight kids eat too many Tiny Teddies and “illiterate” Cape York locals are being driven around by Lefties to vote”

    Will they also be banning people like Morrison, Kelly, Christensen and Joyce and from the Parliament House buffet? I’d say they qualify for an intervention.

    Or is it another do as we say and not as we do?

  14. According to seat by seat odds on sportsbet, we have COA on 62, LAB 68, Others 6 with 14 line balls. If the 14 line balls were to break with current ahead candidates (miniscule in some) we have Lib 68, LAB 75 and Others 7.
    Don’t think COA can win, Odds on for labor minority.

  16. Just finished Squid fishing

    Squid are smart and social animals. It is like you have been off shooting the neighbourhood dogs. Cruel and heartless are Queenslanders.

    Squid doesnt even taste that good unless you cook them super fresh on a searing hot pan with the barest of oil and seasoning and drizzled with the simplest of toppings.

  21. Boerwar
    “The problem with the Coalition? Too many tiny teddies.”

    In one sense I don’t want to fat-shame men or women; the LNP boys club can eat what they like.
    But as usual, it is the hypocrisy I object to.

  23. Nick McKenzie
    @Ageinvestigates
    ·
    10m
    Ben Roberts-Smith’s key defamation case rebuttal witness was in court this week, denying war crimes. Hours after he finished giving evidence, he was confronted by federal war crimes detectives. He’s now in a court cell, charged with obstructing these detectives. Extraordinary.

  25. The scary thing about Joshyboy losing his seat is Mr Potatoe Head gets the LOTO gig should the Labor Party win the election. Ironically, that might just save the Liberal-National coalition post election.

  27. Rex Douglas

    “ Ben Roberts-Smith’s key defamation case rebuttal witness was in court this week, denying war crimes. Hours after he finished giving evidence, he was confronted by federal war crimes detectives. He’s now in a court cell, charged with obstructing these detectives. Extraordinary.”

    Does this raise an issue of perjury at the very least? A credibility issue perhaps? In any case, this is not a good look.

  28. ‘Socrates says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:22 pm

    For those interested, this is a quite detailed analysis of the progress of the war in Ukraine and its implications.

    Good news is the Russians can’t win in the foreseeable future.

    Bad news is the Russians have started digging in for a long struggle, Syria style. Ukraine now needs heavier weapons to kick them out…..
    ——————————————
    Hang on. The Greens reckon that a Light Mobile Force is what is needed! You know send in some kids with playstations and drones. They are serious about this. They keep repeating it.

    Seriously, meat grinding in a static dug-in war is well within the capability of the Russians. Assuming a virtual stalemate, it gets down to which set of civilians get jack of the whole thing first.

  30. Here is a scenario. Most of the Pocock vote is going to come from disaffected Liberals. Most of them are sentient voters and would die rather than give their second preference the Greens.

    Clearly, the optimum scenario to knock of Zed is:
    1. for Pocock to poll more than the Greens
    2. for Labor, Rubenstein and the Greens all to give Pocock second preference.
    3. For some Labor voters to first preference Pocock.

    So the best hope we have is for Greens and Rubenstein voters to Vote 1 Pocock. Failing that, they should give Pocock their second preference.

    IMO there is a slight chance that this might work. But we already have the Greens preferencing Rubenstein. Bandt has questions to answer.

    _____________________________________

    Yes, I will be in category 3. I think Kim Rubinstein is excellent and stands for things I particularly care about, including fairer voting and legislative rights in the ACT, but it seems that Pocock’s wide voter recognition (and his principles, which are known to many across the spectrum) will make him the most likely candidate to unseat the Zed if he can draw enough Liberal voters away from him.

  31. t1983says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:29 pm
    Again… betting odds.

    There are only two types of electoral intel I completely ignore, Morgan polls and betting.

    +1

  32. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    Nick McKenzie
    @Ageinvestigates
    ·
    10m
    Ben Roberts-Smith’s key defamation case rebuttal witness was in court this week, denying war crimes. Hours after he finished giving evidence, he was confronted by federal war crimes detectives. He’s now in a court cell, charged with obstructing these detectives. Extraordinary.’
    ———————————–
    Wowie Zowie. Plus:
    The Coalition has just appointed Nelson, an ardent supporter of B R-S, to head the AWM. How extraordinary is that?

  33. Rex Douglas

    “Ben Roberts-Smith’s key defamation case rebuttal witness was in court this week, denying war crimes. Hours after he finished giving evidence, he was confronted by federal war crimes detectives. He’s now in a court cell, charged with obstructing these detectives. Extraordinary.”

    Does this raise questions regarding the evidence he has given? A credibility issue perhaps? In any case, this is not a good look. I wonder if it has any impact on the current defamation case?

  35. BK at 1.35pm

    Critical Pollbludger issue of the day: I maintain the spelling is “struth” as it is an abbreviation of “God’s truth”

  37. Cronus ,
    It’s a good thing if Dutton stays in parliament, that way a FICAC will be able to look at all the dodgy shit he’s been up to.

  38. This is where the money is coming from (courtesy of The Canberra Times):

    “Labor’s proposed crackdown on multi-national tax avoidance would deliver an almost $2 billion boost to the budget bottom line over the new four years, according to the opposition’s new economic plan.
    The opposition will also slash spending on contractors, consultants and labour hire by $3 billion across the forward estimates, and launch an audit into what it has described as the Coalition’s “rorts and wasteful spending”.”

    The second category, in particular, is ripe for smashing into. So much money wasted on underperforming contracts with little or no continuity when a revitalised public service could be delivering much higher quality outcomes for far less money.

  40. A bit of Covid ‘fun’. Plug in your age and rick factors and compare hospitalization and death rates rates. US site but the relative risks are probably similar.

    https://www.covidtaser.com/comparison-mobile6
    Some of the comparisons available.
    COVID-19 hospitalization (unvaccinated)
    COVID-19 hospitalization (vaccinated over 6 months ago)1
    COVID-19 hospitalization (vaccinated within 6 months)1
    COVID-19 hospitalization (vaccinated and boosted)

  42. ST
    It can be either, I believe. It may be that a certain delicacy among the fervent led them originally first to shorten ‘God’s truth’ and then to change ‘struth’ to ‘strewth’ so that technically they were not taking the name of the Lord in vain but still, cunningly, getting a swearword in.

  43. “It’s nice that she wants to be known by her first name, but it doesn’t help in the voting booth.”

    ***

    I’m fairly sure she is running under the banner of “Kim for Canberra” and has a party for herself registered in that name so she will appear above the line as “Kim for Canberra” rather than below the line under her full name. It’s smart on her behalf.

  44. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:23 pm

    Just a reminder that Kooyong has been in conservative hands since Federation

    And so will it remain after the election. The question is whether the seat will be held by the Dark or the Lite Blue….but it will be blue!

  45. [‘Shadow treasurer says inflation figures prove the government is ‘out of touch, out of plans and out of time’

    Labor is about to release its economic plan to crack down on tax avoidance by multinational companies, but first shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers has some thoughts on the inflation figures.

    “This should be a wake-up call for a government that is out of touch, out of plans and out of time,” he says, brandishing a graph with a big red arrow going up to represent cost of living.

    “Only Labor is taking these challenges in our economy seriously. Only Labor has a plan for beyond the end of the election.”] – SMH

    The contrast between Frydenberg and Chalmers could not be starker. The first, looking and sounding like he knows it’s all over, the prospect, inter alia, that the RBA will lift the cash rate on May, 3, just like it did on Melbourne Cup day in ’07; the second, confident, full of beans.

  46. TPOF ,
    It must be a dark day at KPMG and PW&C today.
    the APS should be able to hire back about 25% of it’s workforce and make them permanent, give them a payrise and then actually save money on the other end of that.

  48. South

    “ Cronus ,
    It’s a good thing if Dutton stays in parliament, that way a FICAC will be able to look at all the dodgy shit he’s been up to.”

    They’ll need to set up a separate Dutton Section requiring a platoon of full time investigators.

  49. Jansays:
    Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:35 pm
    Thanks Itza,
    fwiw, Jan is a gender neutral name.

    –
    I knew a male Jan Jansen back in the day – drove a vw beetle I was in down the wrong side of the road down to Geelong one friday night on the way to a youth camp, ran off the road, hit and tree and had an epileptic fit for good measure. Good thing his g/f is a nurse and knew what to do. He handed in his licence after that trip.

  50. Around 96% of Canberra voters are unmoved by Kim from Canberra. She DID go to Norfolk Island and has promised to deliver them greater autonomy should she find herself in a position to bully the government of the day from 4% of the vote.

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