The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
Kooyong will be an incredibly significant loss. The Jewel in the Liberal Crown. The seat of Menzies.
And where most successful Labor politicians eventually settle.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:18 pm
‘Upnorth says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:11 pm
Morning all. Just finished Squid fishing (no Occys so you ok Bluey)
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No probs. Bluey reckons that squid think they are a better class than occies. Born to rule. Stuff them. Eat as many as you like.
Curious: did you jig over weed or next to a structure?
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Over some weed BW. The Gulf of Thailand is like a Mill Pond at the moment. Went out at 4am.
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Yes Jan-Simon Squid are social creatures that’s why when you catch one you catch a heap. So it was great fun.
We had some sashimi – fresh is best.
I cleaned the rest and we will cook “Pad Talay” (Seafood Fried Rice) for lunch-dinner. Might even get a hokey bottle of Chardonnay for Mrs Upnorth and a few Singha tallies for me.
Geez Richo gave SfM and Payne a touch up in that Article. Good to see.
If you doubt it, consider that LP got 0.97 quotas in 2019 (0.94 for Zed/Party, remaining part being for second LP candidate), and to get over the line, it had to get down to four parties – LP, ALP, Greens, and Independent (Pesec). The last excluded candidate was UAP, and even then only about 45% of UAP preferences flowed to LP.
Even at 0.9 quotas, Seselja would have to get a surprise flow of preferences to get over the line, considering past patterns.
The issue if Zed really tanks won’t be if he can make quota – it will be if he can stay ahead of whoever is third. With the long list of minors exhaustion will play a big role. Last time if the UAP distribution hadn’t got him over quota it wouldn’t have mattered. Even if every single Indy and ALP vote left to distribute went to the Greens (which is obviously not even remotely possible) Zed would have won quite handily. Whoever comes third needs Zed to fall a long way short of quota and then hope not too many minor candidate voters exhaust (other than UAP) in order to jump over him at the last count. Not impossible, but a stretch.
Chris Uhlmann is right on the Deves saga playing out badly in the suburbs and regions. I think Labor deadbatting it and leaving it for the Greens and Independents to get outraged is the best idea. It’s not a vote changing issue. Deve’s is not going to win against Steggles so she’ll be in no position to implement any of her opinions. Meanwhile it being slammed down everyone’s eyeballs and ears is annoying. People honestly don’t see it as a big deal unless you’re a religious nut or a gender warrior. Explaining how hormone treatment can level the playing field between women and transgender women is not a 2 minute soundbite. Who wants to sit through that in an election when we have the country on fire or drowning, war in Europe and economic disaster looming?
“No green labor or teals candidate comes close to Pocock.”
***
Pretty safe to say that given his track record, he’ll find himself voting with the Greens more often than not.
It would be almost like having a second Andrew Wilkie but in the Senate – a small g independent green.
BRS’s case is going swimmingly. Maybe his now banged up witness can get Moses to interrogate the fed war crimes detectives and ask them if they’re just lying liars who are jealous of Big Ben.
In reference to the difficulty removing Dutton, somebody yesterday rightly identified the increase in Brits, Kiwis and South Africans particularly to this seat. I can attest to this phenomenon as four of my five closest neighbours are all of these overseas immigrants. And I certainly know that a significant number of neighbours within another 250m also meet this category. Anecdotally and actually, many of them over past years have identified clear Coalition leanings.
I wonder if this is similar in Perth and impacts federal voting leanings as well?
Firefox @ #500 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 2:51 pm
That’s why his wife is no longer advising SHY and he is running against the Greens is it?
Boerwar @ #485 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 2:07 pm
OK. Not neutral. It can be either.
Thanks. Much better. Recovery slowed by tending to all the demands from the family. Girlflu is much worse than manflu.
So much money wasted on underperforming contracts
What waste? The expected percentages flowed back to the Coalition coffers as donations. Same as the Jobkeeper payments to companies that didn’t need them. All performed to the expected KPIs.
“That’s why his wife is no longer advising SHY and he is running against the Greens is it?”
***
No, it’s because Pocock will be able to attract conservative Rugby Union supporters as an independent that he probably wouldn’t if he was running for the Greens. We do not appeal to the conservative right. Neither would Pocock if it wasn’t for his career at the Brumbies.
Harvey Norman has paid back 6 million in jobkeeper. There should be a website so we can see who hasn’t done the right thing.
Chardonnay, UpNorth? What next? Turmeric lattes? What is the far north coming to?
David Pocock is not Emma Pocock. Davids environmental credentials are well known, but as far as I know, he has no direct links to the Greens.
I hope the ALP does some maths on Jobkeeper waste along the lines of “What was given to big business mates could have provided “a group” with “a benefit”…” for instance providing pensioners with reduced electricity or unemployed with increased funding…
The ANZ is calling for the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate to 0.25 per cent on Monday, after CPI data released today showed a record 5.1 per cent inflation rate.
It would be the first time since 2007 that the central bank raises rates during a federal election campaign, which the incumbent Howard government lost.
“A cash rate target of 0.1 per cent is inappropriate against this backdrop,” a report issued by the bank read.
A rate rise will almost certainly see debt and mortgage repayment costs go up.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/anz-calls-for-mortgage-interest-rates-to-rise-after-inflation-spikes-51-per-cent/news-story/3940fb5c75acd0bdd60ee2f285882cd7
Critical Pollbludger issue of the day: I maintain the spelling is “struth” as it is an abbreviation of “God’s truth”
_______________
Either way, Snappy Tom, Bridget is still bloody useless.
A Liberal-National Party candidate for the Senate who believes fat people should be banned from guzzling soft drinks also claims “illiterate” Aboriginal voters from Cape York are being driven around in buses by lefties to vote in elections.
Queenslander Nicole Tobin, who hails from Cairns, is a “passionate educator” who believes we can all change the world, one child at a time, through Kindermusik.
But it’s her views on the refined sugar bans for fat people to tackle the obesity crisis that are likely to spark debate.
In response to one social media post that suggested obese people “shouldn’t be able to purchase anything containing white sugar or refined flour”, Ms Tobin said she was on board.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/lnp-candidate-nicole-tobin-makes-bizarre-tiny-teddies-slur-in-child-obesity-comments/news-story/ab1c0c444dcf82ba86413cc3fd01a6cf
Dutch, French & Germans are providing these to Ukraine.. range 4oKm +…. the Russians may have decide not to dig in..
Jan says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:00 pm
Chardonnay, UpNorth? What next? Turmeric lattes? What is the far north coming to?
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Jan, Jan, Jan. I did call that Chardonnay “hokey” and it shall be. The bloody taxes on imported wines up here mean they charge you like a wounded bull.
No it’s strictly for Mrs Upnorth. White Wine for me tastes similar to Battery Acid.
You have to remember Mrs Upnorth was born in the big City. Me, I have 10 Singha Tallies chilled in the fridge. Ready to fall at my command.
Tom says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:02 pm
I hope the ALP does some maths on Jobkeeper waste along the lines of “What was given to big business mates could have provided with …” for instance providing pensioners with reduced electricity or unemployed with increased funding…
_______________
ASX listed companies have paid back 240 million in jobkeeper. But ASX listed companies only took 4.2 billion in jobkeeper. Most of the 90 billion Jobkeeper was taken by private companies, and most of them would be small businesses. Not much chance of getting that back.
Jan @ #514 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 3:02 pm
His wife Emma was an advisor to SHY of the Greens.
Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:58 pm
“That’s why his wife is no longer advising SHY and he is running against the Greens is it?”
***
No, it’s because Pocock will be able to attract conservative Rugby Union supporters as an independent that he probably wouldn’t if he was running for the Greens. We do not appeal to the conservative right. Neither would Pocock if it wasn’t for his career at the Brumbies.
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Pocock is going after all the hyphenated surnames that don’t vote Green.
The “Rugby” types. In Rugby League we called Union players “Two Dads”.
The RBA should just go to 0.5% and make it clear that’s just the start. 0.15% is fine tuning. Time to make it clear that sub 1% interest rates are a short term emergency response, not a new normal.
Someone has been having fun with the Libs smear campaigns against Pocock lol…
The other Green Machine!
Dutch, French & Germans are providing these to Ukraine.. range 4oKm +…. the Russians may have decide not to dig in..
Especially if they can’t shoot down any drones pinpointing the targets on their heads.
@Cat Just watching Sky speaking with Dr Gordon Reid. Good vibes from locals disillusioned with Wicks. Think you’re on a winner this time. Go Labor
Will a pre election interest rate rise with 5.1% inflation go down a treat?
https://twitter.com/dcotterill/status/1519106166139367424
It’s all over for Deves if this is anything to go by.
Re squid – I remember walking out along the 1.8km jetty at Busselton in WA and I’m not sure whether there were people deliberately catching squids or it was accidental in their other fishing exploits – but when I saw one freshly hauled onto the jetty blow out black ink on the concrete surface I realised all those dark stains I’d walked past were squid ink. It sure looks like it stains concrete forever!
“The Reserve Bank of Australia has again underestimated the strength of inflation and the independent central bank should get off the fence and begin to raise interest rates next week, regardless of the federal election.”
John Kehoe, AFR, paywalled
Jan @ #484 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 2:35 pm
Of course, silly of me. Get well.
GG thanks for the fulsome response.
Snappy Tom @ #485 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 2:36 pm
and we were seriously forbidden from saying it, taking the Lord’s name in van
@Sceptic
First time post ever here, but I just had to say that the woman behind the camera leading the, *ahem*, “cheer squad” for Deves sounds about as upper-class, trophy-wife, day-drunk as I would have expected.
Sne says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:27 pm
@Sceptic
First time post ever here, but I just had to say that the woman behind the camera leading the, *ahem*, “cheer squad” for Deves sounds about as upper-class, trophy-wife, day-drunk as I would have expected.
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Great post from a first poster. Keep ‘em coming. Don’t be shy
Jan says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:56 pm
Boerwar @ #485 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 2:07 pm
‘ Jan
Not in Holland it’s not.
I trust your Covid is settling down OK?
OK. Not neutral. It can be either.
Thanks. Much better. Recovery slowed by tending to all the demands from the family. Girlflu is much worse than manflu.’
=========================
haha
Looks like the Seselja/AdvanceAustralia dark ops crew have been removing the real Pocock corflutes down our way and putting up their corflutes attacking Pocock instead.
Hopefully in a few days their corflutes will be gone too. Hopefully one ends up in the Museum of Democracy as an example of dastardly tactics by ruthless people.
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:17 pm
Re squid – I remember walking out along the 1.8km jetty at Busselton in WA and I’m not sure whether there were people deliberately catching squids or it was accidental in their other fishing exploits – but when I saw one freshly hauled onto the jetty blow out black ink on the concrete surface I realised all those dark stains I’d walked past were squid ink. It sure looks like it stains concrete forever
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I did “milk” a few of them this morning. I keep it cold in the esky in a sealed bottle. Tomorrow it’s squid ink pasta Upnorth style for Mrs Upnorth and the nippers.
The Greens reward for Pocock practically being Green is to preference Kim ahead of him.
Naturally the Greens can’t actually bear the thought of a principled Independent rolling them in the ACT.
So they do the next best thing. Try to persuade everyone that he is really a closet Green. See Ff as an exemplar.
And we all know who else is doing that. None other than Zed Seselja.
Once again the Greens out their inner selves.
Cronus in Perth Afrikaners (along with Brits) are concentrated in the outer northern suburbs in the seats of Moore and Pearce. I suspect these seats will swing more to Labor than average because of the good vibes from state Labor and the contrast to the COVID disruption in their home countries.
Sne
“First time post ever here, but I just had to say that the woman behind the camera leading the, *ahem*, “cheer squad” for Deves sounds about as upper-class, trophy-wife, day-drunk as I would have expected.”
Probably just picked up the kids from school in the Land Rover as well..
The Australian Centre for International Justice (ACIJ) welcomes news of the arrest of an individual arising out of ongoing criminal investigations into allegations of war crimes by Australian special forces in Afghanistan. The charges relate to obstructing, hindering or intimidating an investigator and causing harm to an investigator.
These are serious offences; war crimes investigators must be allowed to conduct their investigations without fear.
We look forward to a timely dissemination of information to the public as appropriate from the Australian Federal Police and/or the Office of the Special Investigator.
https://acij.org.au/statement-first-arrest-concerning-allegations-of-war-crimes-by-special-forces-in-afghanistan-for-obstruction-and-harm-to-investigator/
Yes. I know she has been involved with the Greens. I am not classifying that as David Pocock having direct links to the Greens political party. He is certainly concerned about the environment.
RR and U
The jetties on the Eyre Peninsula are the same.
I was standing next to a particularly well dressed tourist lady who was watching a caught squid with close interest. It squirted her.
After a convulsive leap which nearly landed her in the water on the other side of the jetty, whe wanted to know whether one could wash it off.
I told her it was indelible ink.
I know. Norty. But still.
Hh
The wheels are falling off. Seriously.
ratsak
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/former-sas-comrade-of-ben-robertssmith-arrested-in-sydney/news-story/ed258133d775af9ea45b12c4db9b834c
Frustratingly, the little Katiches are not testing positive despite clearly having covid. The older one even had a negative PCR. Not sure what to do here because I dont want them to test positive on day 6 (for example) and have to start their quarantine from then.
The question is not that JOBkeeper has been paid back by some – it is how much has been paid back
A token repayment for PR purposes does not cut the mustard
Headlines, hey?
Plenty of squid to catch under jetties on Yorkes too.