The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
Sne
Welcome
Yes – parody of that scene is impossible.
From the AFR paywalled
Part 1
“The greying of Australia has made older voters more important than ever at this election. The share of the electoral roll comprised of elderly voters has increased consistently over the past decade, and people aged over 65 now make up 24.1 per cent of the 17.2 million Australians enrolled to vote on May 21. They could prove decisive in a handful of battleground seats.
At the 2010 election, the number of “older” voters (over 65s) was roughly the same as the under 30s cohort, at 2.8 million and 2.7 million respectively.
But the ageing of the population has seen the gap between the two cohorts blow out to 1.1 million. At next month’s federal election, there will be 4.2 million voters over 65 and 3.1 million voters under 29, according to data from the Australian Electoral Commission.”
“Looks like the Seselja/AdvanceAustralia dark ops crew have been removing the real Pocock corflutes down our way and putting up their corflutes attacking Pocock instead.”
***
Should go get all the smear ads and replace them with the one of him wearing the Raiders jersey instead. Canberrans love the Green Machine – the team that gave the capital a soul, as it was described in ’89 after their first premiership.
I don’t think the smears will hurt him that much anyway, most people will see it for what it is. Canberrans are a pretty switched on and politically engaged bunch too. They know who Pocock is already. It’s also a very Greens friendly place – we are in government in the ACT after all. Being linked to the Greens, while a false smear, is actually a compliment in disguise and will be seen by many as such.
Spoke to some “brothers” (we don’t use comrade much in our group) in QLD. Truthfully fair bit of pessimism among them about QLD.
Their “sausage” comes from those very very close to Shorten.
But Morrison is still in regional QLD and his plane broke down in Townsville yesterday. Same thing happened to Latham in Townsville in 2004.
Something is happening but I just can’t put me finger on it.
People telling our guys they hate Morrison and know he is a liar but don’t know if Albo up to it.
As I said feedback from peeps and no first hand knowledge from Upnorth.
‘Sceptic says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:05 pm
Dutch, French & Germans are providing these to Ukraine.. range 4oKm +…. the Russians may have decide not to dig in..
——————————————–
…what is that a 155mm SP Howitzer? The range with rocket-assisted shells is actually a bit over 50km…
BUT BUT BUT…
It is a tragic mistake for Ukraine to accept heavy artillery and tanks from the West. It is extremely well known among the Greens that these are a complete waste of money and are practically self-defeating. The key to any major land war is a Light Mobile Force. Just ask the Greens spokesperson for disarmament (sic) Jordan Steele-John.
Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with an 8% margin?
From the AFR paywalled
Part 2
“ A small part of the gap is explained by persistently lower rates of enrolment among the young. Just 88.1 per cent of people aged between 18 and 24 are enrolled to vote, compared to 96.8 per cent of the eligible population.
This means there are 168,000 fewer young people on the electoral roll than would be the case if people aged between 18 and 24 were enrolled at the same rate as the wider population.
The driver of the growing dominance of the grey vote is the ageing of the population, which has taken place due to a combination of low fertility and increasing life expectancy. The median Australian is 38.2 years old, up from 35.9 years old in 2002.”
Should add they had heard Palmer and Hanson soaking up a lot of disaffected Tory votes.
Their is a thought that their preferences won’t flow as strong as strong to the Tories as 2019. A bit of a feeling they will be all over the place like a “crazy persons shit”.
You can’t turbocharge electric vehicles. More air on the motor is not going to help as nothing is igniting…..
What the germans are giving ukraine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/04/21/the-dutch-are-sending-huge-german-armored-howitzers-to-ukraine/?sh=69edce079380
From the AFR paywalled
Part 3
“ Elderly voters are a key constituency for the Coalition, with 59 per cent of people aged over 65 voting for either the Liberal Party or the National Party at the 2019 election, according to the Australian Election Study. Labor, by contrast, captured just 29 per cent of votes from this cohort at the last election. Electoral analyst Ben Raue, who writes The Tally Room blog, told The Australian Financial Review that elderly Australians were a “critical voting block” because of their sheer size.
He said elderly people had always been an important cohort electorally, but their increasing share of the voter roll meant their influence had increased.
“The fact that Baby Boomers are entering retirement age means that group is growing as a share of the population, and that’s not going to stop any time soon,” he said.
Retirees make up a large share of voters in key battleground seats. This includes the Labor-held seat of Gilmore on NSW’s south coast, where people aged over 65 are 34.2 per cent of the population eligible to vote, making it the second oldest electorate in the country.”
Is every one who received their ex gratis $250 payment from the Government today going to stay bought?
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:48 pm
Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with an 8% margin?
===========
That’s right GG. Doesn’t gel with the pessimism of “brothers”
Pretty damning Discovery Channel docco on Hillsong.
https://youtu.be/wH5JbQoSUfI
[Greensborough Growler says: Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:48 pm Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with an 8% margin?]
Todays seat was 12%….
Cronus,
You are relatively new here. But,
WB really does not like posters lifting and posting complete articles because of copyright.
Students do a bit of self-education at Shore
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:52 pm
Is every one who received their ex gratis $250 payment from the Government today going to stay bought?
==========•••=+*^%%###====
I got nothing so I’m not voting for the Turds
Up north,
I will put you in the undecideds then.
“ Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews on Wednesday warned it was “very likely” China would attempt to send troops to Solomon Islands, while also claiming Beijing had politically interfered in Australia’s election without providing any evidence.”
Yet just yesterday Morrison said this:
“ Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any attempt by China to build a naval base on the Solomons would cross a “red line”. “We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep,” Mr Morrison said on Sunday.”
There still seem to be some considerable contradictions from the Coalition on this issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-doesn-t-want-its-forces-operating-alongside-ruthless-chinese-in-solomon-islands-20220427-p5agj0.html
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/laughable-chinese-military-expert-says-scott-morrisons-red-line-over-solomons-is-ridiculous/news-story/08c14ac6530ff999dc658fba96fa8433
Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with an 8% margin?
He is trying to save the furniture
We try to be positive about life and are always looking for win win.
So, are going to put ours Labor to win.
1.50 ALP 2.50 Coalition
When Frydenberg makes economic pronouncements, as he did today re the skyrocketing levels of inflation, he speaks so slowly and deliberately that it sounds like he’s addressing a group of five-year-olds with poor comprehension skills.
Cronus
Uncle Arthur and Aunt Martha do national security.
That $250 LNP bribe will be well and truly eaten up by 5.1% inflation and rising interest rates
Greensborough Growler
Apologies, will cease and desist henceforth and forthwith.
Betting odds got the last election wrong but predicted correctly the 6 previous ones. Screw those betting odds…lol????
I blame Nath for the loss last time!.
Thanks all for the warm welcome. Will definitely be posting more.
I’m down here in Clark in misty Tassie and, even though this is a rock-solid lock for Wilkie, people generally can’t stand the sight of Morrison across the state. Really wouldn’t be surprised to see Bass and Braddon flip. That being said Bridget Archer is generally popular and isn’t as extreme as other LNP muppets, same with Gavin Pearce.
Cronus at 4:06 pm
Did Bullshit Man say what he was going to do if China crossed his ‘red line’, pray for ‘The Rapture’ ? Hold his breath ? Write a ‘stern letter’ to Comrade Xi ?
Boerwar @ #568 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 4:07 pm
So that’s a win for the fossil fuel cartel
Went to Dr today for a check on a couple of spots on my legs. All clear.
While there a blood pressure check. I take medication for it.
Was high today. He said come back in a month to see how it is.
How do I explain to the dr that it is an election related issue?
In a months time Ill either be in a calm state of mind or I’ll have been arrested for trying to blow up Newscorp in Sydney and Lib party hq
Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with an 8% margin?
Everyone on less than 8% is trying to win.
Firefox says Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:41 pm
So how do you get your own party? Asking for a friend 🙂
AMP, NAB and ANZ have brought forward their rate increase projections to next week after inflation jumped to its highest level in 20 years.
he speaks so slowly and deliberately that it sounds like he’s addressing a group of five-year-olds with poor comprehension skills.?
A handy skill for anyone wanting to communicate with Liberal voters.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:12 pm
Boerwar @ #568 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 4:07 pm
We try to be positive about life and are always looking for win win.
So, are going to put ours Labor to win.
So that’s a win for the fossil fuel cartel’
——————————
Yeah. We own Shell and Caltex. If you ask very nicely we will let you have some fuel to grow the food you eat every single day.
So here’s a tidy snapshot of the Morrison Govt’s gross incompetence…
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Up north,
I will put you in the undecideds then.
============•
Yeah. I know I will put One Nation last but second last that’s the thing.
Palmer or LNP? Then where do I put the Greens? Any recommendations GG?
Funnily enough the Greens candidate Upnorth hasn’t got a hyphenated name – go figure.
“porotisays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 4:12 pm
Cronus at 4:06 pm
Did Bullshit Man say what he was going to do if China crossed his ‘red line’, pray for ‘The Rapture’ ? Hold his breath ? Write a ‘stern letter’ to Comrade Xi ?”….
I guess that he would just draw a new, “golden line”, and retreat behind it…. waiting…. and so forth and so on, until the Chinese land in Darwin (oh shit, they are already there!).
poroti
I think he’s erring towards the wet lettuce leaf but we’ll have to await the announcement.
The Coalition have made sure that the words COST OF LIVING are attached to the description of the payment of $250.00 in peoples bank accounts.
Upnorth,
I despise the Greens and always put them last in the HOR and never preference them in the Senate.
“So how do you get your own party? Asking for a friend”
***
You either need 1,500 voters on the Electoral Roll to support the party’s registration, or you need to have a currently elected member in the House or Senate support the registration (they cannot be a member of another party while doing so).
GG
We didn’t get $250!
No-one we know has received it.
Rex at 4.21pm re Coalition rorts vs integrity…
May I say, one solid-gold reason to vote in an Albanese govt is his record as Infrastructure Minister: 6 years, $75bn in projects, delivered on-time, on-budget and (IIRC) zero adverse audit office findings.
Labor has been saying this. Which msm journalists have been exploring it?
Why Colbeck won’t be debating anyone any time soon.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/27/thousands-of-shocking-reports-reveal-extent-of-australian-aged-care-residents-suffering-due-to-understaffing
There have been three opinion polls this week, all showing basically the same thing. And yet, other than in Pollbludger and a few other sites, the voting intention figures have not been given the same prominence as approval ratings and the near meaningless preferred PM stakes. I wonder why?
Given the nature of the campaign to date where there’s been a strong and critical focus on the Opposition leader, I think these polls are the most significant ones we’ve seen and may have cast the dye for the rest of the campaign. And yet I keep waiting for a surge in the Coalition’s primary vote because a PV of only 36% [in the latest Newspoll] is 5.41% lower than that in 2019 and there’s only about three weeks to go. I don’t think a surge or growth spirt is likely as the Coalition’s campaign is losing focus and momentum and of course the PM is now a known quantity [unlike 2019].
The government’s perceived strengths of national security, defence and economic management are diminishing. Their messaging has become unco-ordinated and shrill. When the Labor Party is making sense, making the running on national security, defence [in the South Pacific] and is adopting the cut-through theme of “everything is going up except your wages”, the Coalition knows it has a big problem. Who would have thought?
I think the three estimated 2PP figures overestimate the strength of the Coalition vote. While Morgan doesn’t receive the same acceptance as Newspoll, I think its respondent- based preference flows are more realistic in 2022 than using 2019 ones. For example, I reckon the Newspoll’s 53/47 should be more like 54/46 to Labor. And if Labor’s weakest state of QLD is excluded, the 2PP for the rest of the country would be around 55/45.
Moreover, if the poll result were split between metro seats [90 of them] and non-metro seats [61 of them] and noting that Labor secured a metro 2PP of 52.13% in 2019, then Labor’s support in metro Australia would be upwards of 57% and there are lots of winnable seats in that neck of the woods. Just a thought.
“Greensborough Growlersays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 3:48 pm
Why is Morrison campaigning in seats with an 8% margin?”….
Because his speech writer hasn’t finished the texts for the campaign in seats with 10% margin and over yet.
My bet is that the last three days before the election will be spent by Scomo campaigning hard in the seat of Cook.
William Bowe on ABC New24 Afternoon Briefing, now.