Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.
Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.
Other news:
• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.
• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.
• Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.
I note that mention has been made this morning of growing speculation that Clive Palmer’s UAP are in talks to do a preference deal with the Coalition. This of course should be no real surprise. So far, Labor have largely ignored Palmer, and I think that has been the right move. However, I believe that if a preference deal is announced, Labor will no longer be able to afford to ignore him and the gloves must absolutely come off. If a preference deal is done, it is very likely that Palmer will, as he did in the last two weeks of the 2019 campaign, turn the focus of his advertising blitz to attacking Labor, and this time it must be countered. This can be done with a two pronged strategy. First, get the message out to potential UAP voters that a vote for UAP is a vote for Morrison. There is very little love for Morrison among many potential UAP voters. The mention of Morrison’s name at a freedumb rally goes down about as well as the mention of Dan Andrews, they blame him for mandates as much as anyone. Then, get the message to swinging voters; do you really want to support someone who would get in to bed with Clive Palmer? This, after all, is not 2019, when for a lot of people, Clive was seen as harmless. Most people wouldn’t have known that he didn’t pay his workers etc. He is associated with anti vaxxers this time. I would imagine that this message may have particular traction in Western Australia, where you would think a preference deal could put an end to them saving any of the seats in play there.
In 2019, I don’t think Labor did enough to counter Palmer, especially post his preference deal with the Coalition. Surely, that mistake won’t be made again.
Fessy
That one termer was Fiona Scott.
@Jackol – a bit of dramatic overstatement on my part.
Our relationship with China is going to be tricky going forward.
We can’t not engage with China as our major trading partner and rising hegemon superpower. China, though, has been and will continue to be throwing its weight around in ways that we will find troubling.
We will need a complex, nuanced, multifaceted approach to China.
So what we get from the LNP – let’s be best friends until that seems like it might be problematic then boo hiss yellow peril, cooties.
And the media isn’t helping.
Jackol @ Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 10:52 am
What we get is the tail wagging the dog. Domestic politics determining international relations. That is a losing proposition, unless you are a Great Power. And even then perhaps.
The Liberals have been openly saying for sometime they don’t care about losing inner city seats because they will win socially conservative areas in Melbourne and Sydney and mining areas in New South Wales to go with their mining seats in Queensland but the problem for the Liberals is that many of the socially conservative ALP seats are safe.
Griff says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:00 am
This is why I maintain that there is a hidden agenda to change the very shape of the Liberal Party itself.
______
I don’t see any evidence that there is an agenda to deliberately lose ‘leafy’ urban Liberal seats.
Especially with no guarantee they will pick up seats elsewhere to compensate.
The strength of Howard was holding these seats easily while also appealing to conservative electorates. The Liberals did not manufacture the Teals and would be desperate to hold these seats.
#weirdconspiracytheory
Liberal candidate and self-declared radical feminist Katherine Deves described a leading gay newspaper as “the Rainbow Reich”.
In the latest of multiple references to the Holocaust in her online attacks on the trans community, the Liberals endorsed candidate for Warringah made the comments on her now deleted Twitter account.
“Pink News?,” she wrote.
“Bahahaha. That’s just a mouthpiece for misogynists and the Rainbow Reich.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/secret-docs-lift-the-lid-on-katherine-deves-past/news-story/fc702e46b119fcc54972ae419acbbefb
So after two weeks the campaign is even but the ALP has a bit of momentum. The Liberal campaign has been flat and Morrison doesn’t look as relaxed as he did last time.
At our local shops and there are people running around with Great Australia Party flyers Pretty sure that is the bankrupt Rod Colleten’s party
Not getting a lot of interest
Yes, Putin want to sell his stuff to the “east” but delivering it is the big problem. There is currently only one moderate size pipeline to China and zero pipelines to India.
Going to India with a pipeline would mean going up the mountains through places like Afghanistan and Pakistan and would would be a feat of engineering beyond current technology.
The trans Siberian and Trans Mongolian railways are already seeing a train every 3 to 4 minutes, so it is basically at capacity (Also any sabotage by Ukrainians could really cripple the Russian exports).
So that leaves them with shipping everything from the European side of Russia around the world.
Make no mistake, Wong as Foreign Affairs minister will have THE most important job in the next parliament.
Probably the right move to make Kenneally the leader in the Senate which frees up Wong to extensively travel and engage and repair the damage that Taylormade’s L/NP has done.
Mexicanbeemer @ #159 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 11:01 am
Having Albo out of action has been a godsend for Labor! 🙂
laughtong @ #159 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 11:01 am
Never hear of them.
Are they just an L/NP preference harvester ?
The Nats were so busy porking the fossileers that they left real people behind.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-23/patients-left-stranded-after-doctor-service-closes/101010322
Nath
The Liberals might not say it but their actions. The Liberals portray themselves as the party of tradies and miners against the interest of the elite and their trendy wokist issues but where do those elites live so the Liberals are talking BS or are clueless.
Day 2 of campaigning without Albo…
Significant members of Labor’s frontbench are taking the election campaign fight to the key state of Queensland today, as they continue on the campaign trail without their party leader.
Deputy Labor leader Richard Marles, opposition treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers, opposition finance spokeswoman Katy Gallagher and Labor candidate for Forde, Rowan Holzeberger, are expected to speak from 11.30am AEST in Brisbane’s southern suburbs.
Labor’s united front comes after opposition leader Anthony Albanese was forced into COVID-19 isolation on Thursday night. Labor campaign spokesman Jason Clare told reporters yesterday Albanese had a croaky throat but is otherwise OK.
Labor Senator Penny Wong is again campaigning in Perth today, alongside Labor candidate for Pearce, Tracey Roberts. The electorate of Pearce is currently held by Liberal MP Christian Porter, who is retiring at this year’s election
Laughtong
Yes, that is the party led by former PHON Senator Rod Culleton. They push a conspiracy theory that I can’t get my head around, that Australia has not been legally governed since 1973. They have been active in the freedumb, anti lockdown, anti vaccination movement.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:06 am
Nath
The Liberals might not say it but their actions. The Liberals portray themselves as the party of tradies and miners against the interest of the elite and their trendy wokist issues but where do those elites live so the Liberals are talking BS or are clueless.
_________________
Some conservatives might think they would be better of without the leafy electorates held by moderates but they are wrong. Anyone with half a brain in the Liberals would be trying to hold them.
Nath @ 10.58
“I don’t see any evidence that there is an agenda to deliberately lose ‘leafy’ urban Liberal seats.”
Nath, the voice of reason 2022!
Nath
The Liberals are trying to win them but the delusional reactionary faction sees their future in the outer suburbs.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:17 am
Nath
The Liberals are trying to win them but the delusional reactionary faction sees their future in the outer suburbs.
_____
I agree. I was making the point that they were not deliberately trying to lose them, as Griff suggested.
Goll
Reactionary types openly don’t care about people in the inner city and their issues. Peta Credlin and others call these people the wealthy elite.
Rhys Muldoon doorknocking for Labor in Bass – first door is a 93 year old!
Forde eh?
Interesting- Albo was there this week.
Seems like the QLD seats ALP is focused on are Brisbane, Longman, Flynn, Leichhardt and Forde. Forde actually surprises me. The margin is high, although, the demographics of Forde don’t justify that margin. Given how close it was in 2016 – you can see the logic of assuming a revision to the typical baseline.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:24 am
Rhys Muldoon doorknocking for Labor in Bass – first door is a 93 year old!
__________________
Sprocket you are such a fan of cheesy campaign photos!
Socrates @ #115 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 9:50 am
Does not. Lose, and Dutton will be leader so fast everyone’s head would spin, if they weren’t already expecting it. Somehow win, and his faction clings to control for a bit longer, regardless of the strategy employed to get there.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:24 am
Goll
Reactionary types openly don’t care about people in the inner city and their issues. Peta Credlin and others call these people the wealthy elite.
____________
I think the SSM plebiscite revealed that ‘inner city issues’ can be embraced by the wider electorate.
nath says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:15 am
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:06 am
Nath
The Liberals might not say it but their actions. The Liberals portray themselves as the party of tradies and miners against the interest of the elite and their trendy wokist issues but where do those elites live so the Liberals are talking BS or are clueless.
_________________
Some conservatives might think they would be better of without the leafy electorates held by moderates but they are wrong. Anyone with half a brain in the Liberals would be trying to hold them.
=============================
I agree with Nath. Labor would never go out to deliberately lose once safe seats on a “Hail Mary” pass to pick up a swag of other.
No, Deves, purely and simply is The Captains’ Nose pick. And its like that booger on your finger you can’t flick away after the pick.
The Libs are destroying themselves from the inside.
The son of Ted…
One for nath – Liberals rolling out the big guns in Rowe St Eastwood, Bennelong this morning – and yes, that is the mysterious Simon Goodwin
I’m agreeing with nath – it’s a long weekend miracle.
So the worry about Bennelong us clearly real.
The contradictions between the two bases of the Liberals are currently more prominent than the contradictions between the two bases of the Labor Party. If the Teals are successful and organized enough they could make this breach permanent. We will see.
You gotta laugh that LNP candidates are screeching “unfair” because Climate 200 is spending m oney backing Indies. They weren’t squealing when Palmer spent nigh on $80m in their favour last election.
It’s always okay until their own tactics are used against them.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 11:31 am
One for nath – Liberals rolling out the big guns in Rowe St Eastwood, Bennelong this morning – and yes, that is the mysterious Simon Goodwin
_________
Poor old John, being dragged out of his armchair every election.
Still, he gives back! You never see former Labor leaders hitting the pavement like he does.
Upnorth at 11.33am
“The Captain’s Nose Pick”
Outstanding!
Should FICAC be asked as an inaugural activity to investigate John Howard ? Should they go back to his activities in the Fraser govt or start with 1996?
Sprocket, I think you would have been most happiest in the old Soviet propaganda unit. Erasing people from photos and making the party look in the best light possible.
JtT1983
Agree Deves was no masterminded strategy. Its purely another Morrison stuff up!
Ven
“ When Wealth is lost nothing is lost
When Health is lost something is lost.
But when Character is lost everything is lost.”
A motto I agree with entirely however it increasingly seems to be a fast disappearing value-system from my observations. I think of character as being the foundation stone of an individual (which probably explains my dislike for Morrison in particular). If they lie, can’t be trusted, are bigoted, uncaring of others then I will trust them with nothing. If they are selected as the leader of a party, it is axiomatic that I can’t trust the party.
I’m aware however that this is increasingly an outdated view such that I have to temper my observations in an attempt to understand life not through my personal value system but through the new paradigm. The result of this election will tell me whether truth and trust have currency in Australia.
Poor Yezhov….got what he deserved
Lars at 11.37am
You mean like Howard’s propping up of his brother’s business misadventures?
@Jen – it’s hilarious.
Jason F’s whining like “we fundamentally agree! Why are you doing this?!”
Well – moderate ancestral Libs (like much of my family) who may agree with moderate MPs… also see you’re completely powerless and have been able to influence 2/5ths of fuck all.
Bringing together the mention of Little Johnny campaigning for the Libs and Ted Baillieu’s son campaigning against them.
I was reminded of PM Howard’s brother Bob, who taught me for a while at uni. Bob was a committed Marxist and left Laborite but, now I think back about him, he was kind of a white picket fence, conservative sort of Marxist, perhaps closer to his brother’a world view in some respects than either would ever wish to admit.
And Bob was even more of a cricket tragic than John, if that’s conceivable.
“Fiji PM accuses Scott Morrison of ‘insulting’ and alienating Pacific leaders”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/16/fiji-pm-frank-bainimarama-insulting-scott-morrison-rift-pacific-countries
Morrison has overseen the greatest diplomatic failure in Australia since at least WW2, through breathtaking arrogance and incompetence.
Hard to erase this guy though:
https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/leader-of-the-opposition-labor-party-mark-latham-makes-an-election-picture-id51254892?s=2048×2048
Good to see Howard in Bennalong helping out. He really helped Marshall in that final week in South Australia.
Let’s hope the LNP roll him out to a few more events.
Bludging….
Interested in your take on WA regarding where the Labor vote might be…
I agree, that from and organisational point of view, the Liberal Party is at low ebb. However this does not mean to say there are no Liberal voters out there, come what may…The same would apply if Labor stocks were in the same place.
A pure guess, is that not everyone was overjoyed with McGowan and if there were State election tomorrow, I think the Libs would get back some of their traditional seats.
During the time of the pandemic, and certainly the concerted attack on local Labor (Cook) on ambulance ramping (still going on in the West), those lost Liberal voters had something to complain about.
The $64 question is just how well/how far/how tight is the McGowan factor to spill over into Liberal held seats?
I have no idea but there is still a hard core of voters out there who will vote Liberal – regardless..
A reminder of the genealogy
The Lying Rodent begat
The Lying Friar begat
The Lying Waffle begat
The Liar
Ngl, I’ve always been pretty impressed how good the Soviet propagandists were at altering photos, in the days before Photoshop and whatnot.