Ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday, and full candidate lists have been published by the Australian Electoral Commission and incorporated into my election guide. There are 1203 candidates for the House of Representatives, up from 1056 in 2019, an average of around eight per seat. The United Australia Party is again contesting every seat, and One Nation, which contested 15 seats in 2016 and 59 in 2019, is now contesting every seat but Kennedy and Higgins. Other parties making considerable efforts in the lower house are the Liberal Democrats with 100 candidates, the Australian Federation Party with 61 and Animal Justice with 48.
Conversely, the impact of the 2016 reforms continue to whittle away at the number of micro-parties running for the Senate: the number of columns on Senate ballot papers is down from 35 to 23 in New South Wales, 31 to 26 in Victoria, 26 to 25 in Queensland, 23 to 22 in Western Australia, 16 to 14 in Tasmania and nine to eight in the Northern Territory, though it’s up from 16 to 22 in South Australia and seven to 11 in the Australian Capital Territory.
Other news:
• With the announcement of nominations, it is confirmed that Liz Habermann, who came close to winning the safe Liberal seat of Flinders as an independent at last month’s South Australian state election, will run against Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the corresponding seat of Grey.
• Shortly after the publication of candidate details, the Australian Electoral Commission issued a statement noting that Rodney Culleton, who leads the Senate ticket of the Great Australian Party in Western Australia, appeared to be an undischarged bankrupt, contrary to a declaration he signed when he nominated. It has referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Culleton was elected as One Nation’s Senator for Western Australia at the 2016 double dissolution, but was found to be ineligible the following February on the grounds that he was awaiting sentencing for a minor criminal conviction at the time of his nomination, which came two months after he was declared bankrupt.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review cites unspecified sources who rate that the strongest possibilities for teal independents are Wentworth, North Sydney and, “to a slightly lesser extent”, Goldstein. A Liberal source is quoted saying these independents would be less at risk of backing a Labor government than Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott proved to be after 2010, having “developed their own network of voters”.
• Mark Riley of the Seven Network writes in The West Australian that Liberal internal polling “shows them coming back in Swan and Pearce, though still trailing Labor”. Similarly, Labor strategists cited by Tony Wright of the Age/Herald merely “hope” they can win Hasluck.
Anyone who’s been involved in recent federal election campaigns for labor over here knows the challenges Pearce and Hasluck particularly have for the party. Large numbers of voters in demographics who have become hostile for labor in recent years.
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Michelle Grattan headlines this contribution with, “PM’s ‘Deve-ious’ tactics produce another failed character test”. She’s not wrong! She says that in his defence of Deves, Morrison is framing the issue in a misleading way on several fronts. It is not a case of critics wanting to “cancel” her. It is a question of whether she is a suitable candidate for the Liberals. She also says Morrison tried to frame Deves’ tweets as “insensitive”. They went way beyond “insensitive” – they were downright offensive. “Blessed” gets a run, too.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-deve-ious-tactics-produce-another-failed-character-test-20220421-p5af8f.html
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When Wealth is lost nothing is lost
When Health is lost something is lost.
But when Character is lost everything is lost.
TPOF @ #99 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 9:32 am
I knew that, and I knew that someone here would spot it 🙂
But it still makes for a very apposite quote, doesn’t it?
Of course WA will be a tough nut, but again talking about internal polling has one purpose – to make things muddier.
Those ahead need to look like it’s really tight. Those behind need to look like they’ve a chance. Both ways it impacts volunteers, donations, media narrative and primary vote maintenance.
So Pearce/Hasluck being an ask isn’t really impacted by chatter on internal polling – which is invariably selective at best, bogus at worst.
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Tony Windsor writes about rorters, rooters and the country’s lost decade and says that Integrity and climate change will be the key issues at this election, with integrity being the key to a flourishing democracy.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/04/23/rorters-rooters-and-the-countrys-lost-decade/165063600013751
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Too right!
When the person, who is in governing position, doesn’t have integrity every decision that person makes is in the interest of that person or a selected group of people and that will inevitably lead to be not in the interest of the country.
Is the Deves thing some kulcha war strategy to 1) win over marginal ALP seats that voted against SSM; and/or 2) expose moderate Liberals to a heightened risk of defeat in order to eliminate that faction from the Liberal Party?
If it is 1), like the 2019 assault on Shorten, there must be some reasonable – even partially quantifiable – expectation that it could work.
Here is a list of SSM Yes/No percentages…
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2017/November/Australian_Marriage_Law_Postal_Survey_map
Here is Antony Green’s ‘pendulum’, outlining marginal seats…
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-federal-electoral-pendulum/
There appear to be just 2 seats (Greenway and Parramatta) that are 1) Labor-held marginals; and 2) had more No than Yes re SSM (Greenway 53.6/46.4; Parramatta 61.6/38.4).
Other ‘No’ SSM Labor seats are nowhere near marginal – the classic being Jason Clare’s Blaxland, 73.9% No, but he’s on a 14.76% margin.
If it is an electoral strategy, its not marked by a high probability of success. Maybe its all they’ve got?
OTOH, it is a very handy way to make life tough for the Trent Zimmermans of this world – but when was the last time the Liberals allowed internal factionalism to derail an election campaign?
If Morrison thinks he’s behind (he does and is) – he’s trying stuff, like Unknown Albo, China Albo, Labor hates your sport-playing daughter Albo.
None of these has much cost to him – except the last one. He may alienate moderate Libs and deliver some seats to Teals, but he might pick up a small number of Labor marginals and form minority govt by agreeing confidence/supply with centre/right independents plus Katter. OR, he may fail to pick up ANY Labor marginals AND lose some heartland seats to Teals – entrenching Nut Job control of the Liberal Party.
Are we down to ‘minority govt is Morrison’s only realistic hope’?
Frednk says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:19 am
If your honest in 2019 the Liberals and the Greens ran a bullshit election and Labor tried to be serious and lost. A large part of the election campaign was about Labor policy.
Labor have learnt their lesson, bullshit all round. Labor however does have a policy document you can read if you’re really interested in actual policy.
_____________________________________
I have this image from Peanuts of Charlie Brown always being suckered into trying to kick the ball being held in place by Lucy and she always pulling it away at the last moment.
The media, talking heads and even well-intentioned people on the left of politics have always expected a high standard of policy and veracity from Labor and have then gone to town on ripping Labor apart when they suckered into doing it. It’s clear that Labor have finally learnt that all these people and institutions who demand high standards from Labor will never, ever back Labor for doing what was asked of them.
The other day I used the analogy of an election being an advertised knife fight to which Labor brings regulation knives and the Coalition bring machine guns. And the commentators all congratulate the Coalition for being far smarter. This time Labor has brought machine guns too. And the commentators can’t criticise them for cheating without saying the same about the Coalition. So they whine on about dirt all round. Bad luck for them that, for once, it’s an even fight that will expose the total unsuitability for the Coalition to stay in government.
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The son of former Victorian Liberal Premier Ted Baillieu says the party has abandoned its small-l liberal values and that independents offer a vision for the future, not the past. Here’s his op-ed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/my-father-was-liberal-premier-but-i-can-t-support-his-party-20220422-p5afh3.html
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Son of Turnbull did the same after his father lost PMship. So it is nothing new and it nothing biggy IMO.
Ven @ Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:34 am
Morrison shifting from transgender sport to “cancel culture” is deliberate. Dogwhistling 1o1.
Anyway, I shall stop harping on about it. I have said it has traction at least locally in Parramatta in the demographic it is targeting. I shall also say that at least Labor recognises the danger, I think. Albo has played it with a very straight bat. But every election since Howard we get a new strategy. Boat people, Blokes and the weekend. Now they are coming for our children.
A real wealth of good articles this morning. This one is surprisingly objective:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/this-is-what-you-want-on-climate-action-what-you-get-runs-cold-20220421-p5af80.html
Re-read that last paragraph: Australia is now worse than Saudi Arabia when it comes to climate change action.
I wonder how many Australians actually realize this?
BeaglieBoy at 9.33am
Yes, that should have read ‘both Australian jurisdictions’!!!
Let the inter-state wars begin…
Snappy Tom @ Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:41 am
Good analysis.
Oh- it is dog-whistling, my disagreement is this was THE PLAN. As opposed to a pivot to make the best of it.
Had a Qld organizer at pains.
Interest rate rises are imminent regardless who wins but if we win, it will spun & thrashed as Labor’s doing.
Not sure on how to tackle this now before it becomes an anchor should we win.
Snappy Tom
“Are we down to ‘minority govt is Morrison’s only realistic hope’?”
I was wondering the same thing myself. The Deve strategy means, win or lose, Morrison’s faction retains control of the Liberal Party. So he and his Pentecostal mates keep their jobs. It may be nothing more than naked self interest by a group of confirmed rorters.
Falinski is a laugh a minute:
In relation to WA, if Labor can’t win a minimum of two seats here, then I wonder if they ever will? Beyond this is cream and beyond this a cherry on the top.
The surprise packet is Curtin….Things are red hot for the Independent at the moment and it is at risk for the Liberals.
If Labor wins two and Curtin goes to an Independent (believe it when I see it though) then this should be enough on this side of the Rabbit Proof to put Morrison at risk of losing the election nation-wide. As Stirling is gone, the LNP are notionally down one seat here already but Labor should take absolutely nothing for granted…
I am not sure how much of the McGowan glow will flow on but I sense the ‘oldies’ here have been most supportive of McGowan so that 60+ cohort which opts for the LNP – usually – might not be so strong around the traps….
Then again, this mob read the West and it has already given the election to Morrison.
Victoria
“ Dave Sharma says the 99yr lease of the Port of Darwin to a Beijing company “should not have happened”
I wonder what he thinks about the 50% of Newcastle Port?
In happier news the Chinese Communist Party is considering awarding Australian foreign minister Marise Payne its highest honour for advancing the interests of China.
The Chinese “Friendship Medal” would be recognition for Payne adopting a “no interference” policy regarding China’s attempts to establish a military base in the Solomon Islands.
”
After a week dominated by the anti-trans views of Scott Morrison’s candidate for Warringah, it has emerged his proxies misled moderates about the captain’s pick, writes Karen Middleton who describes the Katherine Deves preselection as ‘another Hawke game’.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/23/katherine-deves-preselection-another-hawke-game/165063600013755
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“After a week dominated by the anti-trans views of Scott Morrison’s candidate for Warringah”
It should actually read
After a week dominated by the anti-trans views of Scott Morrison for the candidate of Warringah.
If it is her views then why is afraid to espouse them now after deleting on social media.
citizen at 9.50am
Poor widdle Jason Falinski…
Also this Lib messaging of Morrison as “the dentist” has died a death – clearly was a fizzer in their research.
The real terrorists…
I disagree with Karen Middleton.
The Solomons has been a big thing this week. At best, Deves shares billing with the Solomons.
But, what would I know?
Albo actually “Won the Day” yesterday in the West and I have no idea how they came to that conclusion- so stupid this this piece of trashy journalism. It is not even worth taking the piss out of it now….
What is noticeable though are the two words which are becoming increasingly part of the vernacular of the right sided media – they being “hung parliament”.
I sense the real worry to the LNP is not so much the seats Labor can win but the fact that while the LNP might pick up a set or two here and there, they stand to lose some of their seats in their heartland…..Curtin, of course being one of these….
The irony of this seat with its Labour affiliated name, has never actually been held by Labor as far as my memory allows me to remember….
Grey will go closer..Flinders is the most proliberal party of the seat.
jt1983 @ Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:56 am
You brought this song to mind 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOtMizMQ6oM
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The Chinese military is coming to the South Pacific, and Australia is completely unprepared to deal with this sobering reality. Unprepared militarily. Unprepared diplomatically. We may be witnessing a revolution in our strategic outlook, writes a concerned Greg Sheridan who concludes with, “In this season of wake-up calls, the Solomon Islands agreement is surely the loudest of all. The government in its rhetoric demonstrates it understands the problem. But its actions bear no correspondence to the strategic need.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/china-is-coming-to-honiara-and-we-are-singularly-illprepared/news-story/d241283aab23c41c49c6bc8d439dadf5
”
The Chinese military is a everyday sobering reality for China’s Asian neighbours. Australia should learn from them how to deal with China militarily and diplomatically.
BTW, China is in such a powerful position because of the greed of the Western Capatalists and that includes Australia.
Don’t just look away and walk past this…
Rex at 9.58am
Note the sweeping assumption the IPA kiddy has to make to pull those numbers out of his arse…cancel ‘ALL new coal, gas and oil projects.’
I bet the numbers represent not only those wholesale cancellations, but the worst end of a spectrum of slightly plausible outcomes.
But, as the campaign is about preventing Labor, the outrageous assumptions will be ignored, as will the fact that Labor doesn’t advocate wholesale cancellation, and we will be told…
LABOR TO COST $300bn [a round number] and almost 1 MILLION JOBS [another round number]!
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Jonathan Freedland says that every day Boris Johnson clings on, the UK’s democracy rots a little bit more.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/22/boris-johnson-democracy-ministers-partygate-removal
”
I think UK has seen much worse day than stewardship of BOJO and survived because most of their their elite want to preserve structure of democracy. I am not so sure about US and Australia anymore.
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Russia’s war on Ukraine should push other countries to shift and diversify their food supply — to make it more secure and, at the same time, improve nutrition worldwide, suggests Professor Jessica Fanzo for Bloomberg.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-s-food-system-is-too-dependent-on-wheat-20220422-p5afa8.html
”
Professor Jessica Fanzo is writing from POV of Western countries.
Recently after the start of Ukraine war, Putin said he wanted to diversify his resources market to East.
Remember, India and China have 1/3 of World population.
D says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:49 am
Had a Qld organizer at pains.
Interest rate rises are imminent regardless who wins but if we win, it will spun & thrashed as Labor’s doing.
Not sure on how to tackle this now before it becomes an anchor should we win.
__________________________________________
You need to win or it will an irrelevant question.
It will be dealt with after the election, if Labor win, with a wall-to-wall dismemberment of the Coalition money-management myth as Labor on the Treasury benches unpacks the rorts and grossly incompetent wastes of money under this government.
The only requirement is that Albanese and Chalmers go straight on the front foot declaring all they have discovered upon finally getting full access to the nation’s accounts
Nationals’ federal election candidate for O’Connor ruled ineligible to run
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/nationals-federal-election-candidate-blocked-from-oconnor-tilt/101010228
Holdenhillbilly says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 10:15 am
Nationals’ federal election candidate for O’Connor ruled ineligible to run
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/nationals-federal-election-candidate-blocked-from-oconnor-tilt/101010228
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Mr Crook needs to take it up with the High Court. Whinging to the ABC is not going to do anything.
Rex
I commented on that IPA rubbish about the cost of net zero yesterday. It’s laughable. The job numbers exceed total employment in coal by a factor of ten. Meanwhile the cost numbers assume current high commodity prices last forever, and ignore the cost of the GHG emissions, currently over $36 billion per annum.
The Deves inner-ugliness shines through and destroys any superficial skin-deep symmetry she may possess.
Headline: Religious Schools to cost Australia $200 billion.
(80% of $8 billion subsidy to private schools p.a, to 2050, rounded to the nearest 100 billion)
Headline: Negative Gearing to cost $364 billion($13b p.a. to 2050).
Headline: Excess Franking Credits to cost $280 billion (Average $10b p.a. to 2050).
Cronussays:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:53 am
Victoria
“ Dave Sharma says the 99yr lease of the Port of Darwin to a Beijing company “should not have happened”
I wonder what he thinks about the 50% of Newcastle Port?
_____________________
Port of Melbourne also.
Andrews flogged it off to a consortium with Chinese interests in order to pay for his Level Crossings.
Seems the dominant assessment of the state of the campaign is leaning back towards a hung parliament scenario. Why? It sells newspapers and gives the MSM something to talk about I guess.
The Coalition PV has not been 39% or better in any of the polls on WBs record since August last year when it was on par with Labor at 39% pv for both. In the last Newspoll we have the Coalition PV fell further from 36 to 35%. Unless or until the polls show a PV of 39% or better for the Coalition, all the media hype about a “close call” is just that. hype.
This made me laugh…..
Sky News host Peta Kremlin says “a lot is made” of Scott Morrison’s “China missteps”, but Labor starts with the letter ‘L’, and do you know what else starts with ‘L’? — ‘Legs’. And do you know who has legs? — Xi Jinping. #Satire https://t.co/8TQyHyZJHo
Taylormade
You may even be too stupid for the fiberals. Lol
On Deves, you people were all thinking about Fiona Scott – or as Tony Abbott described her – the Minister with Sex Appeal…
Evan Parsons says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 9:28 am
Put it this way, if Labor in the West can’t pick up 2 or 3 seats from the Libs, Morrison gets another term in parliament. Haven’t we been assured for months and months that Swan and Pearce are in the bag, and Ken Wyatt would be struggling in Hasluck?
Labor have won the 2PP vote in WA just 4 times since 1949. Those occasions were in 1969, 1983, 1984 and 1987. We came very close in 1998.
True story: the State has a history of electing Liberals in Federal elections. But the attachment to the Liberals has been radically re-written in State elections.
The Liberal PV’s in the last 4 State elections were:
2008 418,208 (36.3%)
2013 557,903 (49.7%)
2017 412,720 (29.8%)
2021 300,796 (20.5%)
So the WA electorate is not incurably committed to voting strongly for the Liberals. We do vote Labor if conditions are favourable. The movements in the Liberal PV in those State elections were reflected in the 2PP vote as well. The factors that impelled the collapse of the Liberal vote in 2021 have waned but they are still present in the minds of many.
As well, it’s worth recalling that the Liberal Party as a social assembly – as an entity to which ordinary people belong – has more or less ceased to exist. It is simply a front organisation these days: a party with few members other than crazy-reactionaries. They are evangelical zealots, or diehard catholic chauvinists, or otherwise born again ideologues.
Moderate opinion has seldom been well-represented in the WA Liberal Party, but they have no place at all these days. The Liberal Party here is not the same college that once provided a platform for either Fred Chaney Snr or Jnr, for Ian Viner or Mal Washer. They are another incarnation altogether. It’s doubtful that even Julie Bishop would feel the WA Liberals are the same party that she once served.
They were found out in 2021 in the State election. I think they’re very likely to be found out again next month. There’s no reason whatsoever for any West Australian to vote for a Liberal Party led by a corrupt, dishonest, prejudiced, decadent Sydney-focussed Pentecostal idiot.
jt1983 @9.21am:
That might be because it doesn’t appear to be true. From the quotes Confessions linked earlier from the Saturday Paper:
Interesting to read Amazon Prime and Paramount Plus are looking to get involved in AFL broadcasting.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/streaming-companies-want-to-broadcast-afl-as-players-seek-huge-pay-rises-20220419-p5aeip.html
Taylormade @ #139 Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 – 10:26 am
Victoria had a constructive relationship with China until your L/NP stuffed it all up.
Sandman says:
Saturday, April 23, 2022 at 10:26 am
Seems the dominant assessment of the state of the campaign is leaning back towards a hung parliament scenario. Why? It sells newspapers and gives the MSM something to talk about I guess.
The Coalition PV has not been 39% or better in any of the polls on WBs record since August last year when it was on par with Labor at 39% pv for both. In the last Newspoll we have the Coalition PV fell further from 36 to 35%. Unless or until the polls show a PV of 39% or better for the Coalition, all the media hype about a “close call” is just that. hype.
The reactionary plurality should be thought of as comprising the Liberals, Nationals, UAP, ON and the Lite/3rd voice delegation; and they have complimentary help from the Greens. Reactionaries abound.
The question is whether Not-A-Lib sentiments will be sufficiently strong to split that plurality and carry Labor to a win.
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
Just looking at the Reps field, this is crazy. I count 10 seats with 11 candidates, 17 with 10, and about 60% have 8 or more (which causes a step-up in informal voting).
This could be the election where the negligent inaction of our parliament about informal voting is exposed.
I’m estimating informal voting will be up in the Reps from 5.5% to just over 6%.
Andrew Probyn just said that Katherine Deves is more of a device than a candidate.