Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
I just watched a video about the floods in Lismore on that BBC page and heard Morrison claiming that he got ‘that Emergency Financial Assistance into people’s pockets within a week’.
What a bald-faced liar that man is while the cameras are on.
nath,
Are you an eye witness?
Perhaps you’re just playing off your personal prejudices.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #786 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:17 pm
Christ almighty. One of us is clearly insane. And I don’t think it’s me. 🙁
Taylormade @ #796 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:27 pm
Your comments should be filed under, ‘Laughable’.
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:31 pm
nath,
Are you an eye witness?
Perhaps you’re just playing off your personal prejudices.
__________
It’s no surprise to me you have no problem with police brutality.
nath @ #800 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:30 pm
Are we sure he wasn’t being a smartarse dickhead ?
AE, Sure there will be a “Who Lost Solomon Islands ?” debate a la Who lost China in 1949 debate. I think I’ve canvassed that enough not much point relitigating this further. We will see what impact it has on the election campaign.
This shit looks like it will get real for Australia now. Don’t know about missile batteries in QLD but if the Chinese do militarise Honiara then it will certainly hit home for the Australian public mentally and emotionally.
If the Chinese do it , will they do it during the election campaign or wait? Presumably they hate ScoMo but they might wait for fear of driving people to ScoMo.
Does the Labor Party still have cold war liberals ? I guess with a likely win we will find out soon enough. If we have a minority government – will it do anything? To think the defence of the realm might depend on Allegra Spender and Adam Bandt’s views?
Interesting times.
Taylormade,
How are your team travelling?
Looks like a very bad day for team Liberal today.
Scotty needs to be providing less handball, most of the star players are not trying and the fans are burning their Memberships.
It’s Richmond in the 80s all over again.
Not looking good.
C@t at 6.30pm
Remember a bunch of people from Lismore dumped rubbish outside Kirribili House?
If the Coalition lose Page, it’s, well, I was going to say 90% Morrison, but he had help from Perottet (who later lifted his game.) So, 80% Morrison.
And I will 100% crap myself laughing (metaphorically!)
I’ve said to my long-suffering spouse ‘These people deserve every misfortune that comes their way.’
Rex Douglas says:
Are we sure he wasn’t being a smartarse dickhead ?
________
Now if that was against the law half the country would be arrested daily.
Do you think cops should get heavy handed with people who give them an attitude?
Maybe it’s just me.
I think the anti-vax dickheads who have provoked and split society for 2 yrs have made me more sympathetic to law enforcement who deal with such types.
Albo has Covid.
GG you would be a Liberal for sure but the Toffs wouldn’t take you.
OH NO !!!!
Marles in charge !!
nath,
Who said there was brutality and not quality police work?
That would be you!
Apologies if posted already
“Labor leader Anthony Albanese has tested positive for the coronavirus after taking a PCR test.
“Following a routine PCR test this afternoon ahead of interstate travel to Western Australia, I have returned a positive result for COVID this evening,” he said in a statement.
“I have been testing regularly as part of my election campaign duties.
“I will be isolating at home in Sydney for the next 7 days and will continue to follow health guidelines and advice.”
(SMH updates at 18:32)
Wow! Albo has COVID according to the ABC.
How on earth will this play out now?? Guess it all depends on how sick he gets? Hopefully for his sake not very.
I’ve observed a distinct change in the pitch of Albanese’s voice – far more authoritative & confident, and so he should be given the utter stuff-up by Morrison re. the Solomon’s. And sending a junior minister to attempt to sort says it all. ASIS has either lost the plot or
Morrison sees no domestic advantage in foreign aid.
Albanese has tested positive.
Greensborough Growler says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:38 pm
nath,
Who said there was brutality and not quality police work?
That would be you!
______________
Police brutality includes overreactions like arresting and hauling people across parks for smoking a joint.
Traveler at 6.37pm Confirmation of what you posted from Albo’s twitter feed…
https://twitter.com/AlboMP?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
nath,
You have evidence or is that just a brainfart?
Re: Albanese and covid. Albanese gets to recharge for a few days after kicking Morrison all up and down the street, and now Chalmers, Wong, Clare, Keneally, and Plibersek get to get on the front foot.
I’m expecting to see them giving interviews between them every day. Unlike with the LNP, they don’t have to hide their ministers.
nath says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:37 pm
GG you would be a Liberal for sure but the Toffs wouldn’t take you.
_______________________________________
GG is like the insurance salesman, Ned Ryerson in GroundHog Day. Someone best avoided.
Littlefinger agreed to a selfie with GG at a branch meeting and he was smitten by the attention! Someone who finally accorded him the attention he craved. The rest is history.
So Albo has covid
Is Morrison a close contact?
Independents day video from Cimate200, feat Alex Dyson (Ind for Wannon)
You might remember him as the guy who jumped off the breakwater last election, shown on insiders.
https://twitter.com/climate200/status/1516983221833330688
You know what a fucking stupid mistake by the ALP was. Letting Albo get tested at all!
What a stupid fucking mistake. Should have just pushed through. Even if they have to wheel his fucking corpse up to the next debate.
They better put him in a good hotel with a good internet connection and he better be online all the fucking time.
“Is Morrison a close contact?”
***
Would have to be if Albo had it last night. They shook hands at the beginning and were very close to one another.
It’s funny, if that police incident had happened in any other state under any other Premier, Rex would be calling it police brutality, and gloating about how that doesn’t happen in the socialist utopia that St. Dan created.
On the Labor Deputy Leadership…
Lance Barnard was a brilliant deputy to Gough; Lance was never going to be leader.
Lioel Bowen was a brilliant deputy to Bob; Lionel was never going to be leader.
Marles’ visibility may increase a little over the next week as Albo isolates, but he is a pure deputy. I expect a lot of the public work to be handled by Chalmers etc.
[They better put him in a good hotel with a good internet connection and he better be online all the fucking time.]
We still have 4 weeks to go… put him in isolation for a week, let his other ministers take control and keep hammering the lnp
Is scomo a close contact?
nath says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 6:26 pm
Rex Douglas says:
What’s the other side to the story ..?
________
Quasi Fascism.
———————
Thailands Military Imposed Government has legalized the growing and sale of cannabis and it’s products.
Not for smoking though I’m no expert but apparently the male plants are used and females ones (which are smoked – Nath your advice here) are still on the no go list.
I suffer terrible Insomnia. Might explain my madness. But I went to the quack a few months in an effort to get off the strong medicines I must take to get to sleep.
I was given a bag of Cannabis Tea and was told to consume one before bed. All problems would be solved.
I had to give it up after a week. Had the “horrors” real bad. The most strangest dreams.
Still it’s a step forward for Thailand “quasi” Facist Military Government that has one of the highest incarnation rates for drug offenders in the world.
And the “Bangkok Hilton” ain’t a nice place to be. Been there a few times to visit strangers who have no family or friends in Thailand. Bring some food, durries and some instant coffee and some writing material. Send their mail and have a chat.
A couple of grams of Gunja or Yaba and no cash to Pay the Coppers and life is buggered.
Sends a shiver up me spine.
Just heard Albo has COVID – speedy recovery old mate. Lucky he has a good team to back him up.
Good thing there’s many weeks of the campaign to go so Albo doing a week of remote appearances shouldn’t be a killer. Thanks Scott!
Time for Labor’s covid preplanning to show its worth. Hopefully better than the first day press conference pre-planning.
The whole “Griffith gone to Greens” thing is good fodder for the local tabloid (for their own futile reasons) and a false lifeline for a struggling Adam Bandt…….who appears to be getting eaten alive by a better funded and better branded “indie” movement (yes I know Holmes a Court isn’t fielding candidates in Qld – because we’re all rednecks/heathens/Hansonites etc etc – but Bandt needs to gain seats, doesn’t he, to prove he deserves his increasingly irrelevant job).
And while there are lots of Tories bragging they won’t vote for Morrison (85-90% will, no matter how many further atrocities unfold, and no matter how thick and fast – as they always do) I reckon enough of them might change their vote this time, to the absolute amazement of Coorey and his crowd.
The sullen face of Coorey in his blue chambray?blazer on May 22, while trying to rationalise an Albo win – should be quite amusing
I thought SfM said covid was over? If Albo had it at the debate then SfM has it
Who will step up to the plate, maybe Charlmers
The good thing about the ALP is they have a far better team who can take the fight to the Libs – especially their opposite numbers.
“Is Morrison a close contact?”
Nobody is legally a close contact except people you share a house with, now, basically. But in reality there’s presumably a chance Albo could have infected Morrison, sure.
Snappy Tom @ #808 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:35 pm
Snappy Tom,
Did you see this article from earlier today?
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/photo-of-anthony-albaneses-partner-reveals-labor-leaders-secret-weapon/news-story/ecdc256ce8a9c0df5ddf9287ce091973?amp
Albanese and Jodie Heydon were in Bangalow visiting up that way and they met with Reverend Rosemary Wynter. Would she be a Uniting Church Minister by any chance?
The sooner they get to the bottom of this the better. During the campaign would be very sweet.
(guardian live stream)
If Albo was going to get Covid during the campaign better that it’s now rather than in 2 or 3 weeks time.
Better Albo get COVID now than later in the campaign
F..k Albo has COVID
I was trying to figure out why I read this blog so often. It took me a while, but think I know now.
It is a little left dominated, well, quite. However, it’s one of the few blogs where left and right views are presented and contested. With some low grade trolling and banter. It reminds me of actual debate amongst people with divergent views at uni. Rather than a sell serving worm hole of left or right views. Something truely rare these days.
Please keep posting. Left, right and centre. Personally, I believe the best ideas come from a contest of views and ideas. And I’m glad PB still does this.
I do want to give a personal shout out to some posters who show wise insight and have given me years of joy. There are many, but some of my favourite.
BB. Thanks for keeping it real and humerous. GG , Sproket and Cat, I love the dedication to your cause. But my favourite is Lars. I often don’t agree, but your ability to never sleep and rile the others is second to none. You’re far too intelligent to spend 24/7 on a blog, so I assume it’s more than one person. But geez, you do make me laugh and I appreciate the right views for balance.
And before the left crowd send hate for thanking Lars. I actually appreciate you all, and dedicate my life to making this beautiful world a better place for all. I’m a true swing voter.
PLEASE send Jim Chalmers around the traps! Even better!!!
“The whole “Griffith gone to Greens””
I know the greens have to talk themselves up the system really gives them little choice but this is a huge free kick to Labor. Voters who don’t actually want a green mp, but are otherwise very willing to show Labor what they think of the weak climate change policy by preferencing the greens ahead of labor knowing labor will win can’t do it in this seat now.
citizen @ #815 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 6:38 pm
The burning question is, will Scott Morrison take a PCR test if he wants to go back to WA?
Thank you JayC that’s very kind (and courageous) of you to say.
We remain resolute!
Looks like Marles will be in the spotlight.
Although putting jokes aside, Albo can still give digital press conferences in the meantime.