Polling and other horse race news:
• The 100 undecided voters selected to attend last night’s Sky News People’s forum included 40 who rated Anthony Albanese the winner compared with 35 for Scott Morrison, leaving 25 undecided.
• A uComms poll conducted for independent Kooyong candidate Monique Ryan credits her with a credulity-straining 59-41 lead over Liberal incumbent Josh Frydenberg. A report in the Herald-Sun relates that primary votes of 35.5% for Frydenberg, 31.8% for Ryan, 12.8% for Labor and 11.7% for the Greens, but there would also have been an undcided component. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 847. Conversely, Greg Brown of The Australian reports the Liberals concede a more modest drop in Frydenberg’s primary vote from 47% to 44% over the past three months.
• The Guardian reports a Community Engagement poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney found independent Kylea Tink, whose campaign Climate 200 is supporting, with 19.4% of the primary vote to Liberal member Trent Zimmerman’s 37.1%, with Labor on 17.3%, the Greens on 8.7%, the United Australia Party on 5.6% and others on 3.8%, with 8.2% undecided. Respondents were more likely to rank climate change and environment as their most important issue than the economy, at 27.2% and 19.7%, with trust in politics not far behind at 16.2%. The poll was conducted by phone on April 11 and 12 from a sample of 1114.
• The Age/Herald has further results on issue salience from its Resolve Strategic poll, showing cost of living the most salient issue for those under 55 and health and aged care leading for those older.
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday on the recent history of the gender gap as recorded by opinion polls, and the threat posed to the government by the loss of support by women. Right on cue, Peter Lewis of Essential Research writes in The Guardian today that Scott Morrison’s “low standing with female voters … could well determine the outcome of this election”. It is noted that the gender breakdowns from Essential’s current poll have Morrison at 50% approval and 44% disapproval among men, but 39% approval and 51% disapproval among women. There is also a ten-point gap in its latest numbers for the Coalition primary vote.
• Michelle Grattan in The Conversation relates detail on focus group research conducted in Wentworth by Landscape Research, which finds participants tended to rate the government highly on management of the economy and the pandemic, but took a dim view of Scott Morrison and favoured a leadership change to Josh Frydenberg.
Nice-looking things on other websites:
• The University of Queensland offers an attractive Election Ad Data Dashboard that tracks the various parties’ spending on advertising on Facebook and Instagram. Through this medium at least, Labor has thus far led the field with 44.5% of spending since the start of the campaign compared with 26.5% for the Coalition, 12% for the United Australia Party and 10.2% for independents, the latter being concentrated in Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar. The $15,000 spend on Josh Frydenberg’s campaign in Kooyong is around triple that of any other Liberal seat. The Financial Review quotes Glenn Kefford of the UQ political science department saying Labor’s 2019 election post-morten was “damning of the digital operation and made it clear that they needed to win the share of voice online if they were going to be successful”.
• Simon Jackman of the University of Sydney is tracking the betting markets in great detail, and translating the odds into “implied probabilities of winning” that currently have it at around 55-45 in favour of Labor. Alternatively, the poll-based Buckley’s & None forecast model rates Labor a 67.2% change for a majority with the Coalition at only 11.1%.
• In a piece for The Conversation, Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont offers a colour-coded interactive map showing where he considers the swing most likely to be on, based on various demographic considerations.
• A report in The Guardian identifying electorates targeted with the most in “election campaign promises and discretionary grants” since the start of the year had Bass leading the field, with the marginal Labor-held New South Wales seats of Gilmore, Dobell and Hunter high on the list, alongside the seemingly safe Liberal seats of Canning, Durack and Forrest in Western Australia.
Everything else:
• The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, is standing firm against calls for her to withdraw after her social media accounts turned up considerably more radical commentary on transgender issues than suggested by the initial promotion of her as a campaigner for strict definitions of sex in women’s sport. In this she has the support of Scott Morrison, who decried “those who are seeking to cancel Katherine simply because she has a different view to them on the issue of women and girls in sport” (though Samantha Maiden of News Corp notes she has gone rather quiet of her own accord), together with many of the party’s conservatives. Those who have called for her to withdraw include North Sydney MP Trent Zimmerman, New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean and state North Shore MP Felicity Wilson. A Liberal source quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald dismissed the notion the party had been unaware of her record when it fast-tracked her for preselection last month with the support of Scott Morrison. Barring action by noon today, Deves will appear as the Liberal candidate on the ballot paper.
• An increasingly assertive Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about the parties’ practice of sending out postal vote applications and advised voters against making use of them, and establishing a disinformation register responding to conspiracy theories about voter fraud, a number of which are being peddled by One Nation and the United Australia Party.
• Perth’s centrality to Labor’s election hopes has been emphasised by Anthony Albanese’s announcement that the party’s national campaign launch will be held in the city on Sunday, May 1.
Also:
• David Speirs, factionally unaligned Environment Minister in the Marshall government, is the new South Australian Opposition Leader after winning 18 votes in a Liberal party room ballot ahead of moderate Josh Teague on five and conservative Nick McBride seemingly only securing his own vote. Liberal veteran Vickie Chapman has announced she will resign from parliament by the end of May, which will result in a by-election for her safe seat of Bragg.
Albo makes his point quite well here!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1516954398337159168
“I won’t go to the specifics. It goes to national security so I won’t do that,” the PM told reporters in Brisbane.
“I know a bit about national security. I’ve been on the national security committee for eight years.”
There is one very obvious reading from these statements.. ASIO have bugged the Solomon’s cabinet room, just as they did in Timor-Leste, however Scottie did nothing with the information unlike his predecessor The Rodent Howard who passed the info onto foreign commercial interests.
BB
The thing being missed in this debate is the professional sports have rules and those rules set out a criteria that has to be met before the transwomen can compete. Some people are acting as if a transwomen can simply turn up and play but they can’t but where there is a debate is the push by some trans advocates to change the rules to remove the criteria.
BK: “Gee wiz Rex, that’s a disgusting remark from Morrison!”
Isn’t consistent with what Lionel Murphy said about ASIO almost 50 years ago? (Albeit in a very different context.)
Isn’t consistent with what Lionel Murphy said about ASIO almost 50 years ago?
_________
That was then. This is now.
Fact: P1 you don’t work, nor have you ever worked in the energy infrastructure industry. Fact: I’ve worked for decades in exactly this industry.
Ever reflected on why oil companies choose to lay oil pipelines in the sea than across land? I’ve worked on pipelines that follow coastlines, and pipelines in rivers, because it’s easier and cheaper to put them there. You got SFA to say about this subject. It is the height of arrogance of someone who has never had anything to do with an industry to confidently assert things about that industry. You literally know less than nothing.
Maybe you should be doing less googling. The fact that this is wrapped up in an anti renewables commentary is gobsmacking.
I can’t see Mark Dreyfus ordering a raid on ASIO (Murphy style) can you Meher baba?
sprocket
“ Morrison is losing the plot, now throwing shade on the security agencies…”
Watched that video. Another way of Morrison saying I don’t give a F@#k what those agencies say. I mean after all, what would they know? And we know just how successful his government has been at politicising these agencies and foreign policy and making these strategic decisions………
Sceptic: “There is one very obvious reading from these statements.. ASIO have bugged the Solomon’s cabinet room, just as they did in Timor-Leste, however Scottie did nothing with the information unlike his predecessor The Rodent Howard who passed the info onto foreign commercial interests.”
Well, of course they will have some sources of information inside the Solomon Islands government, as would China and a number of other nations. I suspect that those sources were suggesting that there really wasn’t going to be anything the Australian Government could realistically do to stop this outcome, and that going in harder was only going to make things worse.
Sending a numpty nobody like Seselja was presumably a gesture to express concern without escalating the situation. I’m sure that Marise Payne’s “unavailability” was a convenient excuse, because it was judged that her going there right now would have been a mistake.
This is why I think Labor is best keeping away from the issue. I doubt they know that much about what went on, and it’s not a good idea to guess.
Greensborough Growler @ #551 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 3:02 pm
That’s very powerful from Albo.
Very much on the front foot now.
Pi @ #556 Thursday, April 21st, 2022 – 3:04 pm
Fact: Anyone who thinks submarine power cables are cheaper than terrestrial power cables doesn’t work in the power industry.
The issue is how the government has managed the relationship with the Solomon Islands, not with China.
“I could find some more, but these will do for now.”
Do for what?
So a company sacked someone for speech it didn’t like. That can happen every single day. The current govt got someone sacked the day he declared he was going to run against a govt minister in an election. THE SAME DAY.
You could at least try and address the greater systematic issues rather than picking up a very limited set of examples filtered through the media.
Two of which were from a country where States are passing laws to destroy the lives of teachers who say their partner is of the wrong sex.
The left is not the problem here.
P1 you don’t work in that industry. I do. I’ve made a career out of it. I’m liable to have laid my first subsea cable, and first subsea pipeline, before you were born. My first offshore job was developing the barge winching positioning logic for subsurface pipeline laying vessels.
Bushfire Bill
“ So why is Morrison going on about it, except to get some radical trans activist hot under the collar and demanding the right to play the “W” game?”
He’ll need more than a New York fire brigade ladder truck to get out of this deep hole. He just doesn’t know when to cut his losses, driven by anger not intellect and commonsense.
LVT: “I can’t see Mark Dreyfus ordering a raid on ASIO (Murphy style) can you Meher baba?”
Not really. And it wouldn’t be necessary: there is no longer any risk of ASIO serving as a fifth column inside a Labor Government.
Most of the ASPI/Lowy Institute types are scathing about Murphy’s action, but I reckon it was fair enough. There was clearly an element inside ASIO in those days who believed that their job was to fight commies, regardless of who was within government, and that Labor flirted with commies and therefore shouldn’t be trusted and that it was reasonable to starve them of information. Murphy’s raid made a strong statement that he wasn’t going to put up with this sort of nonsense, and I think it had the desired effect.
MB writes…
Which trans advocates? What are their names? What positions of authority do they hold? What majorities among memberships of which sporting bodies support them?
It seems like a total straw man debate to me.
Just because a few rad usual suspects on twitter may be screaming “Transphobia!” doesn’t make it an issue that the Prime Minister of the nation should be handling personally.
He probably doesn’t agree with land rights for gay whales either. But do we need to flog the subject to death?
William Bowe: “The issue is how the government has managed the relationship with the Solomon Islands, not with China.”
Well yes, but, as I’ve posted earlier, can Labor be certain that they know how it could have been done better? I think it’s dangerous territory for them to enter.
If you’re not sure exactly where you’re going, you could end up anywhere, including adding fuel to the fire that you are supposedly pro-China.
meher babasays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 3:02 pm
“I still think Labor would do well to avoid the Solomon Islands issue as much as possible. It’s not clear to me that they have a really good suggestion as to what the Government might have done to prevent this deal from happening.”
This is a critical national security issue and the ALP must engage.
There is no one point of failure but close to a decade of multiple bad decisions.
Let the debate continue.
“Scott Morrison said the Solomon Islands-China security agreement was not a surprise. Now Zed Seselja says “We found out about it when we saw that leaked draft.”….
So the lnp either knew what was going to happen and did nothing and are now lying, or are incompetent and were caught out….
I wonder which it is?
Mbaba:”Labor be certain that they know how it could have been done better?”
How about not insult the PM of The Solomon Islands?
Meher baba
“ I still think Labor would do well to avoid the Solomon Islands issue as much as possible. ”
Agreed, employ the Napoleonic principle. Let Morrison continue to try to defend the indefensible, it’s not fooling anyone. He just looks more incompetent by the hour.
BB
The trans advocates pushing for changes to the rules are mostly in America and most of them appear to be outside the professional sports bodies and their main issue is the allowable testosterone levels.
It is ridiculous that Morrison is trying to milk it.
Albo on the Terri Butler Electorate Office incident.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1517005862488788993
Fascinating that Lars is suddenly an expert on the Solomon Islands, having never expressed any interest before. It’s almost like it’s a team effort….
We will never know whether it would have made any difference if Australia was led by people who didn’t repeatedly get caught talking shit about Pacific Island nations and had kept up foreign aid programs and engagement in the Solomons but it couldn’t have hurt. The stuff Penny Wong said last night.
I don’t think there’s much to make out of which minister went to the Solomons at the last moment – this is a policy failure years in the making.
Mex
Actually, my comments were less about trans people and more about Morrison’s exact words re boys against boys and girls against girls. His comments reflect a very 20th century approach to a 21st century paradigm and he needs to get with the zeitgeist on this.
Scratching my head: what has ASIO got to do with any offshore intelligence activity?
Why does ASIO’s alleged anti Labor shenanigans in the Murphy era got to do with Australia bugging East Timor or now the SI cabinet room?
What am I missing here?
Looks like Albo is doing a shopping centre walk in Bennelong.
With ScoMo’s stock tanking, will he be forced out of his tightly managed appearances and face the public?
A/E – Dennis Richardson was also telling ScoMo to butt out of politicising intelligence, and Richardson sat in many a seat in his time, including Secretary of DFAT.
Some commenters on this blog wouldn’t know their Arse from their Albo – to coin a phrase…
Lynchpin and cronus
Responding to your query upthread.
Yes i had heard that a scandal of a financial nature may be exposed during the election.
No other info has been forthcoming to date.
If i hear anything further, will share.
sprocket,
Not yet.
One of the observations of Morrison at the end of the first week was that he hadn’t met a real voter.
I reckon it’s Scomo playing the small target strategy atm.
steve davissays:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 1:57 pm
BK
Labor should just go ahead with the debates regardless of whether the gutless turn up or not.
That reminds of Turnbull refusing to do the second leaders debate leading up to the 2016 election. That gave Shorten a free kick and a chance to sell his policy to the electorate. Ok he “missed by that much” at that election, but it was not a good look for Talkbull at the time.
Kos Samaras
A friendly reminder. The UAP ads on interest rates don’t have to be true. They just need to increase anxiety. No one who is sitting on a massive mortgage will have a rational response to this messaging.
So expect it to work. Especially given he is running two ads each ad break
Without checking too deeply, I recall the Abbott/Hockey 2014 Budget put the knife through the aid budget, including for the Pacific.
And Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister presided over the abolition of AusAID.
So it’s a bit harsh to lump all the blame on losing the Solomons on ScoMo, Payne and Dutton – though there is no doubt that their indolence contributed
Meher Baba wrote
I still think Labor would do well to avoid the Solomon Islands issue as much as possible. It’s not clear to me that they have a really good suggestion as to what the Government might have done to prevent this deal from happening.
Which means that journalists will have the opportunity to frame umpteen “gotcha” questions to Labor spokespeople designed to get them to say something that could be construed as “we would have done better because China doesn’t hate us so much”, which would open the door for ScoMo to blast them with both barrels.
What about we would have done better by not cutting foreign aid?
What about we would have done better by treating them with respect by sending senior ministers and/or the Prime minister to negotiate?
What about we would have done better by not ignoring their anxieties about climate change and their own existence?
What about we would have done better by not having our senior ministers ridicule them in Pacific forums?
None of that would remotely involve Labor’s relationship with China
Cheers
meher baba says:
Well yes, but, as I’ve posted earlier, can Labor be certain that they know how it could have been done better? I think it’s dangerous territory for them to enter.
____________
It doesn’t really matter if Labor would have done better. Who knows what would have happened if Labor had been in office.
What matters is that the Opposition hold the government account for foreign policy and security lapses.
And while I’m posting.
I have a trans daughter, a profoundly autistic son and an assistance dog for him. Which would make me part of the 0.0001% of parents who have some direct views on the full range of ‘woke’ issues of the week. Both of my children have taught me a great deal about tolerance and understanding. Something missing from some members of parliament.
But F me, Morrison really has put my nose out of joint this week. And while the trans community is small, there is almost no one who has not been at least indirectly touched by ‘disability’. I expect his comments will reverberate and tip quite a few of the 7% undecided away from Morrison.
I actually didn’t mind F Berg giving guide dogs free air play. He has been involved for a while. But I also get why a charity should stay out of politics. For those who have cut donations, I think that’s a bit ‘misguided’ (pun intended). The CEO messed up, but people really need the dogs. So maybe think if it’s worth cutting back on your charity? You seem like a good empathetic bunch mostly.
And on autism being an impediment. It is both an impediment/disability and a super power/ability, in my view. The better we learn to harness the way neuro divergent minds works, the better society will be.
Oh, one more thing, please done call disability issues ‘woke’. That’s worse than Morrisons gaff IMO.
Anyway, I’ll go back to being a silent reader again
“Pi says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 3:10 pm
P1 you don’t work in that industry. I do. I’ve made a career out of it. I’m liable to have laid my first subsea cable, and first subsea pipeline, before you were born. My first offshore job was developing the barge winching positioning logic for subsurface pipeline laying vessels.”
I am increasingly of the view you are being trolled
Pi: “How about not insult the PM of The Solomon Islands?”
Didn’t the PM say he was “insulted” by criticism of his proposed deal with China?
So I suppose we could have avoided insulting him by not criticising the deal. And then he probably would have argued that Australia appeared to have no problem with it.
A bit of a Hobson’s choice situation, don’t you think?
sprocket_ at 3:27 pm
They do however now their Lars from their Albo.
JayC
Anyway, I’ll go back to being a silent reader again
__________________________________
Please don’t do that. We need more people like you posting here.
meher baba says:
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 3:12 pm
LVT: “I can’t see Mark Dreyfus ordering a raid on ASIO (Murphy style) can you Meher baba?
Not really. And it wouldn’t be necessary: there is no longer any risk of ASIO serving as a fifth column inside a Labor Government.”
A fifth column?
But best check for reds under beds.
Of course, closet Libs don’t exist, so Labor can relax.
Some are rather untrusting of a democratic society where people are entitled to hold views.
In cases of sports where physical strength is the determining factor, participants that have gained their strength through testosterone – either born XX and illicitly took the hormone, or born XY and grew up male – are and should be banned in the female version of the sport.
I don’t know enough about the converse situation (or even if “trans” is the appropriate word for women who want to change over to being men), but are there many people at all born XX, and who have taken hormones to beef themselves up vying for entry to the male branch of the sport?
The “controversy” is just too ridiculous for words. Of course there will be crazies on both sides of the debate trying to rustle up an argument about gender-altered athletes competing in the other branch of the sport. But 99% of participants and administrators (including trans players) will take the common sense approach.
There are 7 billion people on the planet, so I guess there will be a fringe element prepared to agitate, but is it really worth elevating the subject to the level of a national debate?
It’s an obvious Dead Cat from the Dead Cat professionals.
Albo in Bennelong. Savva said the Liberals are worried about it..
+1
JayC at 3:32 pm
I hope you consider posting more often.
JayC
Morrison lacks genuine care and concern about anyone, but himself.
He shows us every day who he is.
Interesting candidate the Nats have chosen for Richmond:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/21/nsw-nationals-candidate-tells-congregation-of-her-aim-to-bring-gods-kingdom-to-politics
And then a couple of years back ….
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/julie-bishop-regrettable-australian-foreign-aid-cuts/12638942
Worst Foreign Minister…