The weekly poll from Roy Morgan finds Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 last week and the narrowest the heavily Labor-leaning series has had it since October. Its distinction with Newspoll is now down to preferences, since the major party primary votes are similar to those of Newspoll and indeed Resolve Strategic: 35.5% for the Coalition, up three, and 35% for Labor, down one. However, it’s already strong reading for the Greens has become even more pronounced, with a one-and-a-half point increase to 14%, while One Nation is down half a point to 4.5% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1.5%. I calculate that this would pan out to 53.7-46.3 on 2019 preference flows, but Roy Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences have been consistently more favourable to Labor.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (in from 55-45 for a swing of about 6%), 58-42 in Victoria (steady, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (out from 50.5-49.5, a swing of around 10%), 58-42 in South Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of about 7%) and 61-39 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll unusually credits the Coalition with a lead in Western Australia of 51-49, after Labor led by fully 63.5-36.5 last time, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday through to Sunday from a sample of 1382.
The Guardian also has the latest voting intention results from Essential Research, which may already be available in full here by the time you read this. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences and inclusive of an undecided component, suggests the Coalition have all but closed the gap, with Labor down three to 47% and the Coalition up one to 46%. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation down one to 3% and the United Australia Party up one to 4%.
Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up five on disapproval to 41%, whereas Scott Morrison’s ratings are all but unchanged, his approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 48%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-36, compared with 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.
UPDATE: The poll also offers personal ratings for Adam Bandt (33% approval and 27% disapproval) and Barnaby Joyce (33% approval and 45% disapproval), and finds a 55-45 split in favour of Labor on a forced response question for party expected to win the election. A semi-regular question on “views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government” recorded little change on May, with a steady 48% rating it was “time to give someone else a go” compared with 34% who went for the alternative option that the government deserves to be re-elected, up two.
According to Bronny of course Albo needed to do better.
The melts with these sky hacks is beautiful to watch.
My attendance at the debate is certainly news to me. I could have sworn that I was at a restaurant in Southbank tonight.
bug1 says:
“What i saw on TV, they read out;
30 Morrison, 40 Albo, 30 undecided, then corrected as,
35 Morrison, 40 Albo, 25 undecided.”
Ha! Just like The Roller Game, which passed as entertainment on 1960s TV.
Five minutes before the end: “Ladies and gentlemen, there’s be a problem with our scoreboard, so we’ll have to adjust it.”
The graphic read:
Albo 30
Morrison 30
Undecided 40
Gilbert read
Albo 40
Morrison 35
Undecided 25
“So say China flies in 1000 marines into Honiara next week. What effect does this have on the election?”
So say China ships in a dozen mobile launch platforms and nuclear IRBMs?
So, uh, should I be worried that Lars knows (or thinks he knows) what I look like?
alias
It SHOULD be leading with Morrison somehow believing that people with autistic kids are NOT blessed. God must despise them.
Alias, fair enough, wondered if they gave Morrison 5 point bonus for best (shoes/hair) or something.
Good one bug1.
@Asha – terribly.
I’m ok Mr Mysterious.
I was joking UpNorth.
To be honest they should of not let the audience pick undecided. They should of made the third option as “leaning” one way or the other.
Albanese 40%
Morrison 35%
Leaning Albanese ?%
Leaning Morrison ?%
bug1 – yes I saw the same – the numbers on the screen were different to what was read out, I should have taken a screenshot of it.
The response to the mother with an autistic child was deplorable…
Glad to hear Albo went well tonight. I unfortunately (fortunately?) missed it, but will probably watch it sometimes tomorrow.
Have to say, I’m feeling a lot more confident than I was this time last week.
I looked in a couple of times & caught Morrison. Absolutely indistinguishable from his usual pressers. Just a droning noise.
nath, are you questioning Madame Chopper?
What was on the menu, Asha?
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 8:57 pm
alias
It SHOULD be leading with Morrison somehow believing that people with autistic kids are NOT blessed. God must despise them.
________________
Was a very strange moment.
Agree Sonar. My recollection is past debates like this Sky has hosted have not allowed undecided. After all, they’re not asking who they intend to vote for, just who they reckon won the debate. Not exactly sheep stations.
Well that’s my biggest surprise of the campaign so far. Andrew Bolt has declared Albo the winner, saying that he presented as warm and on top of his brief and that he spoke well about the future. I had to run it through twice to make sure I had heard it correctly.
“ So say China flies in 1000 marines into Honiara next week. What effect does this have on the election?”
We can start by asking Morrison why there is not even a budget to start buiilding the frigates or subs before 2025.
Who gets to boast about causing this outcome – Abbott, Morrison or Dutton?
Who claims responsibility for driving the Liberal foreign policy clown car?
south @ #863 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 7:35 pm
Ball placed in front of the goalposts there.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 8:59 pm
I’m ok Mr Mysterious.
I was joking UpNorth
——————-
Taken in that manner now Lars and good to see you back Asha.
Is that a real one, Sprocket?
can anyone illuminate meaningfully explain why this debate is on sky?
earlier today someone said dealing with murdoch is prostitution – well what is legitimating and promotion this gutter news channel? Why not free to air where it’ll have an audience – commercial and/or abc. I saw the program last year (has it been on sky for several years) and its standard was ok, it is just so odd to have a ‘leader’s ‘ debate in this format. Was it streamed? I could not find it. Lot’s of other anti albo clips and rants from sky.
Sky didn’t set up Albo but it was a risk.
Just embarrassing for the nation that our debates look so amateurish.
I found that Rooty Hill debate to be so loathsome. People playing pokies in the background. What a disgrace. This was not that much better.
Shouldn’t we attach a bit of gravitas to the occasion?
iceyone444
Deplorable indeed. Does morrison not realise that the NDIS may be needed by anyone at any stage of their life. Just because your child does not have a disability at some point, they can acquire one through illness or injury.
He really is a f wit
And to our north..
#UPDATE Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta scored a landslide victory in East Timor’s presidential election, according to preliminary results published Wednesday by the election secretariat
#UPDATE Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta secured 397,145 votes, or 62.09 percent, in East Timor’s presidential election, against incumbent Francisco “Lu-Olo” Guterres’ 242,440, or 37.91 percent
Let’s go with this hypothetical of China rapidly escalating its new foothold in the Solomons to post troops there, or do something else rather provocative. One reading of that would be China taking a leaf out of new mate Russia’s book to do some election meddling, this time not virtual but very much real world.
That aside, if China did indeed choose to ramp things up much quicker than anyone seriously expects, and to do so pre-election, then it would have to favour the LNP right? Even if it’s Beijing’s retaliation for Canberra’s tough line over the past couple of years, voters would be very wary of changing horses if that sort of threat was looming much larger on the horizon.
should give Albanese confidence…..expect the MSM to be rabid in their attacks on Labor in the next couple of weeks.
South China Morning Post
Breaking news: China plane crash probe finds no evidence navigation instruments failed
I have heard from several sources may have been pilot induced. Very sad to see.
AE
“ So say China ships in a dozen mobile launch platforms and nuclear IRBMs?”
Most of the Chinese IRBMs are conventionally armed, not nuclear. They already have bigger ICBMs that could reach Australia from China.
But these missiles are big and could still level a building or blow up a base (or sink a warship) similar to what Putin has been doing in Ukraine.
Howard famously said he would be disappointed if a child of his was gay, and that went off just fine.
Criticism will only come from actual disabled people and their immediate advocates.
nath, are you questioning Madame Chopper?
Its funny but I have heard Bronwyn Bishop call Malcolm Turnbull a socialist. Turnbull was a self made millionaire. While Bishop was on the public purse with her snout in the trough for almost thirty years. Racking up bills for helicopters trips and limousine rides at tax payers expense. There was nothing fiscal conservative or small government about her.
Thanks Upnorth. I intended to stay away longer, but couldn’t resist checking in to see how the debate was going.
Dandy, yes it is a real headline -though 9fax now a]walking it back saying “Labor critiquing….’
By Latika Bourke
Labor has seized on a moment that took place during the debate when an audience member asked a question relating to her four-year-old son who has autism.
“Jenny and I have been blessed, we’ve got two children who haven’t had to go through that,” Morrison told her, stressing that he could only try to understand her predicament.
If China follows its pattern from previous takeovers of port sites in the Indian Ocean, they will build a naval base and airfield in the Solomons with maintenance facilities for ships, planes and/or subs, self defence SAMs, and possibly SSMs or IRBMs.
But its OK, the Liberal party has already got a contingency plan worked out of what to do. This treaty has been warned of for three years.
The blessed comment is horrendous.
The corollary of being blessed is being punished by God. As a religious person this should have been obvious to him.
I missed the question from the woman with autistic child, but to be fair to Morrison, based on the quote above, whilst his phrasing is very clumsy, he was clearly very tired (from the part of the livestream I did see) and was trying to bring in the personal dimension while attempting to show empathy. Hopelessly klutzy but not malicious surely.
Meanwhile the “Curious-Snail”
https://imgur.com/a/J8EL2WU
Whopper with cheese, the debate was live streamed on news.com.au.
How Albo finished the debate…he had practiced for that moment.
ScoMo on the other hand, thought he could wing it…
alias says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 9:05 pm
__________________________
It would be a Tampa level event I guess. Not sure who it would favour?
Q: Criticism will only come from actual disabled people and their immediate advocates.
Times have changed since Howard- I cant imagine anyone not being horrified by that comment.
In regards our more elderly citizens , how does the Aged Care debacle play out?
I wasn’t paying full attention to the News service clip but I thought I heard Morrison saying it was a 30 year problem (dating from Santoro and Howard?) and Albanese referring to the Royal Commission
Basically the RC reporting was confined to Morrison saying he was going to spend $10- over the next 20 years to fix it
Without detailing the catastrophic nature of the RC findings
Then Morrison asking where are the Nurses
Well, as Gittens says, it is not jobs but well paying jobs (and job security)
So you train to fill a need – and remunerate according to qualification
The fix will not be overnight because the problems from the privatisation of Aged Care to can do capitalism are entrenched over the years Morrison now refers to
So back to the question
How does that play out?
alias says:
was trying to bring in the personal dimension while attempting to show empathy. Hopelessly klutzy but not malicious surely.
_______
revealing his inner beliefs and narcissism.
His election win in 2019 was a miracle. Favored by god.
Not having disabled children was a blessing by god. Once again being favored.
I thought Andrew Clennell had the best comment tonight – it will be decided in the last week. Starting to think the break in the last week thing might have some logic to it given the number of undecideds.
Those Sky commentators are pretty cray-cray. Cant believe they still have Bronwyn Bishop!!