The weekly poll from Roy Morgan finds Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 last week and the narrowest the heavily Labor-leaning series has had it since October. Its distinction with Newspoll is now down to preferences, since the major party primary votes are similar to those of Newspoll and indeed Resolve Strategic: 35.5% for the Coalition, up three, and 35% for Labor, down one. However, it’s already strong reading for the Greens has become even more pronounced, with a one-and-a-half point increase to 14%, while One Nation is down half a point to 4.5% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1.5%. I calculate that this would pan out to 53.7-46.3 on 2019 preference flows, but Roy Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences have been consistently more favourable to Labor.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (in from 55-45 for a swing of about 6%), 58-42 in Victoria (steady, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (out from 50.5-49.5, a swing of around 10%), 58-42 in South Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of about 7%) and 61-39 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll unusually credits the Coalition with a lead in Western Australia of 51-49, after Labor led by fully 63.5-36.5 last time, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday through to Sunday from a sample of 1382.
The Guardian also has the latest voting intention results from Essential Research, which may already be available in full here by the time you read this. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences and inclusive of an undecided component, suggests the Coalition have all but closed the gap, with Labor down three to 47% and the Coalition up one to 46%. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation down one to 3% and the United Australia Party up one to 4%.
Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up five on disapproval to 41%, whereas Scott Morrison’s ratings are all but unchanged, his approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 48%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-36, compared with 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.
UPDATE: The poll also offers personal ratings for Adam Bandt (33% approval and 27% disapproval) and Barnaby Joyce (33% approval and 45% disapproval), and finds a 55-45 split in favour of Labor on a forced response question for party expected to win the election. A semi-regular question on “views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government” recorded little change on May, with a steady 48% rating it was “time to give someone else a go” compared with 34% who went for the alternative option that the government deserves to be re-elected, up two.
sprocket_,
Jenny and I are worthy…
Jenny and the kids.
*drink*
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 7:30 pm
Jenny and I have been blessed…
___________
What a prick. He means God blessed him, but not the questioner.
FFS yet another Jenny mention, SfM has no idea, NDIS not Welfare, again demoning welfare
ScoMo fails to say the NDIS is in chaos under his watch
I hope Albo thanks Bill Shorten for setting it up.
people look like they are all in a doctors waiting room.
Did debates go downhill ever since the Rooty Hill RSL disgrace? I can’t imagine Hawke, Keating or Howard doing these things.
In short, ScoMo’s line is ‘everything is ok, don’t worry about the last few years , we know why we’re doing’
Forget about the last few years. Forget. They didn’t happen.
Morrison has perfected using positive feel-good words… as he stabs the questioner in the back.
But this is not on: offering a questioner special access to “my Ministers and their departments” after the show.
Not. On.
Albo stressed and incoherent. He needs Dr Jim up there with him.
nath ,
The media used to be somewhat civil.
Just wait, there will be a medicare cuts qn coming up
For a skn noos selected group, the issues are in favour of labor
Albanese won on NDIS.
Gilbert letting Morrison have a second go AGAIN.
Gilbert has now allowed ScoMo to ask 2 follow ups, zero to Albo
“Albo stressed and incoherent. He needs Dr Jim up there with him.”
I assume he is doing embarrassingly well then.
Better than wasting my time watching the actual trash
And Albo smashes scummo on the NDIS.
Another win for Albo.
He’s doing well here.
Albo is doing really well creating a disgusting image of this governments egregious neglect.
Boerwar @ #822 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 7:25 pm
That’s not a bug, it’s a feature.
Can’t help imagining Jim Chalmers debating Morrison, it’d be a slaughter!
Smirko is back.
Ugh such an arrogant prat.
Labor does the big things, the big reforms – Hawke/Keating reforms – GFC and Rudd/Gillard government
Very strong
And then he gets to come back and waffle about NDIS.Piss him off Moderator.
SfM runs back to economy when in trouble and labor can manage money
Albo listing the labor reforms of the past, well done
On borders, I know someone who is trying to get the Mother of his young daughter to join his daughter and him (an Australian citizen with government contracts to boot) in Australia.
They have provided DFAT with all the information requested (thru a Solicitor) including Reports saying it is beneficial for the Mother to reside in Australia.
With all information now provided DFAT no longer respond to queries as to progress.
The matter has been dragging on for 18 months now.
The father and the daughter holiday overseas during school holidays so the Mother can join them.
This is “border protection”
And not the only such story.
Pandering to racism.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Love the LNP operatives… seeding the questions with leadership tension.
Albo doing great here. Labor does the big reforms.
ScoMo hits Albo with the manage the economy better. Labor can’t manage money.
Albo fluffs the answer – he really does need Dr Jim.
Fool Gilbert now asking all the questions, trying to get it back onto the economy so ScoMo can go through his spiel
3 Dropkicks paying their respects to Pacific Islanders
Listing the labor reforms of the past should be something everyone in labor does every presser. They have a good record they should be proud of.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 7:36 pm
“Smirko is back.
Ugh such an arrogant prat.”
Give him enough rope ….
When we stared into the abyss…
But FIGJAM! Look how good it is now!
Ohh SfM says he comes up with jobkeeper – if Albo doesnt kick that can we are lost
Albo very strong in this debate. Holding his own when he was expected to stumble.
To all those reading this commentary. Bear in mind that sincerity and Lars are complete strangers.
Albo can’t make short sharp statements .
Getting whiplash looking at the commentary from Labor posters and then reading Lars.
Debt, deficit, economy. Evens.
I think Albo’s performed strongly in this debate. He’s certainly the better speaker, and doesn’t shout – always a big plus.
Albo has a fee kick on waste and rorts
Fraudband NBN, taxpayer advertising, doubled the debt…
Albo getting better on this
Morrison does verbal diarrohea as a matter of course.
Yabba
Also known as lars von liar
Lars Von Trier,
He doesn’t need to make short comments, these things are about area under the curve with fluffy messaging.
Scomo pressers in Boothby today, as shown on news.
Dr Rachel Swift (Boothby Lib candidate shown in background) really looked like she wishes she wasn’t there …. or perhaps that HE wasn’t really there.
Thanks to all for this commentary.
Dip into your own super to save the country yet Hardly Normal gets to keep his Job keeper bonus.
Jesus. Morrison is so robotic. He frames his responses in the same way every time. I zone out after 5 seconds.
The Aussie Cossack has been arrested. And, he’s pissed off about it!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1516680044206190592
Geez – ScoMo says cashflow is the main issue for small business and talks about tax deductions?
Does he understand this stuff?
Morrison is making quite a few slips of pronunciation and grammar.