Morgan: 55-45 to Labor; Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46

Labor maintains a commanding but narrowing lead from Roy Morgan, while Essential Research finds little in it.

The weekly poll from Roy Morgan finds Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 last week and the narrowest the heavily Labor-leaning series has had it since October. Its distinction with Newspoll is now down to preferences, since the major party primary votes are similar to those of Newspoll and indeed Resolve Strategic: 35.5% for the Coalition, up three, and 35% for Labor, down one. However, it’s already strong reading for the Greens has become even more pronounced, with a one-and-a-half point increase to 14%, while One Nation is down half a point to 4.5% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1.5%. I calculate that this would pan out to 53.7-46.3 on 2019 preference flows, but Roy Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences have been consistently more favourable to Labor.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (in from 55-45 for a swing of about 6%), 58-42 in Victoria (steady, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (out from 50.5-49.5, a swing of around 10%), 58-42 in South Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of about 7%) and 61-39 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll unusually credits the Coalition with a lead in Western Australia of 51-49, after Labor led by fully 63.5-36.5 last time, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday through to Sunday from a sample of 1382.

The Guardian also has the latest voting intention results from Essential Research, which may already be available in full here by the time you read this. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences and inclusive of an undecided component, suggests the Coalition have all but closed the gap, with Labor down three to 47% and the Coalition up one to 46%. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation down one to 3% and the United Australia Party up one to 4%.

Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up five on disapproval to 41%, whereas Scott Morrison’s ratings are all but unchanged, his approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 48%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-36, compared with 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.

UPDATE: The poll also offers personal ratings for Adam Bandt (33% approval and 27% disapproval) and Barnaby Joyce (33% approval and 45% disapproval), and finds a 55-45 split in favour of Labor on a forced response question for party expected to win the election. A semi-regular question on “views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government” recorded little change on May, with a steady 48% rating it was “time to give someone else a go” compared with 34% who went for the alternative option that the government deserves to be re-elected, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,295 thoughts on “Morgan: 55-45 to Labor; Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46”

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  1. The mood of this election is quite different, so it is quite likely that preference flow will be different from the 2019 election.

  6. Seems like:

    1) Labor primary maybe 1 or 2 points up on the depths of the Littlefinger era, ie at 2019 level to the 2016 level. The 41% in Newspoll at the beginning of the year has evaporated. Albo’s negatives (and the likelihood they go up further) suggests this will be as good as it gets primary wise for the ALP.

    2) Liberal primary has also flatlined at around 35-36%

    3) Unless there is a shy Tory vote hiding in the independent figures or PHON/UAP, or the Libs get back 3-4% primary before May 21 – they lose.

  8. Forgive me ven – I said 38/36 in Essential, turned out to be 37/35

    So Essential is 47/46 TPP with 7% undecided ? People don’t really like either side?

  10. I would love to believe that Labor is ahead up here in Queensland but not confident it’s the case after last time. Admittedly the voters here are inscrutable, for example the last state election the LNP prosecuted a dog whistle around crime in Townsville which was reported in various media as a likely gain of a swag of seats up north . In fact Labor held these seats in fine style and picked up more from the hapless( hopeless) LNP. Anyway if the ALP can knock over some of the logs around Brisbane and we can get to about ten seats for Labor up here it’s goodbye Scomoe. Surely that’s more likely than not.

  12. Hang on, I thought Labor was the China lackey whose weakness on national security was opening the door to unwanted military installations on our doorstep? Along with the Darwin port fiasco, this is another atrocious look for a PM who is already in a very tight fix…….

    From ABC Online…

    The federal government has declared it is “deeply disappointed” that Solomon Islands has pressed ahead and signed a security pact with China – a deal Australia, New Zealand and the US fear could open the door to a Chinese naval base in the South Pacific.

  13. Again, in the context of a supposedly bad last week for Albo and with the media continuing to pile on him, not a bad result. Furthermore, Albo appears to be gaining some campaign momentum turning the attacks back on both Morrison and the baying media pack.

    These results give hope to ALP supporters that Albo is well in the game and that much to the disappointment of the Murdochracy, this election is far from over despite their claims last week. The Coalition’s primary vote is simply not where it needs to be and shows little sign of getting there.

  15. cady

    “ The federal government has declared it is “deeply disappointed” that Solomon Islands has pressed ahead and signed a security pact with China ”

    The Coalition should be disappointed. After all, having been asleep at the wheel such that Australia’s national security is unquestionably threatened according to all defence analysts, the Coalition is solely responsible for this situation. The time for bipartisanship on this issue is over and the ALP must highlight this extraordinary Coalition security failing that has resulted from gross incompetence. The Coalition cannot be trusted on national security.

  16. NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet’s private texts to Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the issue of transgender women and sport have been leaked to a newspaper as the civil war in the Liberal Party over the issue continues.

    The Australian newspaper reported on Tuesday night that NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet had backed the Prime Minister’s position on women and sport – a position that put him at odds with the NSW Treasurer Matt Kean who has called for Liberal candidate Katherine Deves to be disendorsed over her controversial remarks about the issue.

    “Perrottet has texted Scott his views on this issue and it’s strongly in support of the PM’s position,” an insider told The Australian.

    News.com.au has confirmed that Mr Perrottet told colleagues that he did not leak the texts – suggesting the private correspondence could only have been briefed by the Prime Minister or his office.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/nsw-premier-dominic-perrottets-texts-to-scott-morrison-about-transgender-women-and-sport-leaked/news-story/05142dcf5e8f71514cfe85cff287dd4e

  17. “Perrottet has texted Scott his views on this issue and it’s strongly in support of the PM’s position,” an insider told The Australian.

    News.com.au has confirmed that Mr Perrottet told colleagues that he did not leak the texts – suggesting the private correspondence could only have been briefed by the Prime Minister or his office.

    There is nothing that the current PM wouldn’t leak to give himself the slightest perceived chance at looking good; whether you are friend or foe it matters not, it’s all about ScoMo 100% of the time.

  18. From Dennis Shanahan in The Australian (paywalled)

    “The vast majority of people intending to vote for the Simon Holmes a Court Climate 200 independents voted for the Greens, independents and ALP at the 2019 election.”

    I find this claim somewhat difficult to believe but am unable to view the article to establish whether there is any actual evidence to support this.

  19. So far at state elections under the new opinion poll system , the opinon polls have under estimated Labor primary vote and over estimated the Lib/nats combined primary vote

    The federal election will show whether that will be the case

  21. Vladimir Putin’s rumoured purge over his disastrous war in Ukraine could show he fell into the ‘dictator trap’

    Any attempt to remove Vladimir Putin from power would need to involve a decision by Russia’s elites, according to Vindman.

    This may be something the President is keenly aware of, with reports of a “Stalinist” purge inside one of Russia’s most powerful agencies emerging last week.

    More than 100 agents from Russia’s secret intelligence agency, the Federal Security Bureau (FSB), have been removed from their posts, according to the UK Times.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-20/vladimir-putins-fsb-purges-reflect-his-frustrations-with-ukraine/100997186

  22. Cronus @ #18 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 6:39 am

    From Dennis Shanahan in The Australian (paywalled)

    “The vast majority of people intending to vote for the Simon Holmes a Court Climate 200 independents voted for the Greens, independents and ALP at the 2019 election.”

    I find this claim somewhat difficult to believe but am unable to view the article to establish whether there is any actual evidence to support this.

    Wishcasting by Dennis, methinks.

  24. Jaeger @ #21 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 6:42 am

    Vladimir Putin’s rumoured purge over his disastrous war in Ukraine could show he fell into the ‘dictator trap’

    Any attempt to remove Vladimir Putin from power would need to involve a decision by Russia’s elites, according to Vindman.

    This may be something the President is keenly aware of, with reports of a “Stalinist” purge inside one of Russia’s most powerful agencies emerging last week.

    More than 100 agents from Russia’s secret intelligence agency, the Federal Security Bureau (FSB), have been removed from their posts, according to the UK Times.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-20/vladimir-putins-fsb-purges-reflect-his-frustrations-with-ukraine/100997186

    Rule #1: Never create a well-organised, committed and connected bunch of enemies.

  26. Morrison thinks he is still in parliament by calling people Mr Speaker , so is it not surprising that Morrison and his cronies are campaigning on stop the boats and attack on the CMEFU/other unions like they are still in 2010-2013, instead of the year 2022.

  27. So Morrison obviously had his ‘Trans Women in Sport’ wedge lined up, with Katherine Deves as his avatar, ventriloquist’s dummy and candidate for Warringah, idling in neutral and raring to go in a seemingly personally-created job for her to cool her high heels in as she waited for the starter’s gun to go off:

    Deves’ preselection came two months after reports in early February revealing the recent law graduate and former Treasury Wine Estates marketer was co-founder of the Save Women’s Sport lobby group.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/candidate-s-distasteful-comments-are-a-stain-on-the-liberal-party-20220419-p5aeln.html

    What lawyer goes into a marketing job? I bet Treasury Wine Estates are Liberal Party donors as well.

  28. Behind AFR light paywall

    “The federal government could be forced to buy out a Chinese part-owner of the Port of Newcastle, as NSW’s second biggest city emerges as the navy’s internal favourite as the home of a new east coast base for the planned nuclear submarine fleet.”

    FYI, China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited bought its 50% stake of Newcastle Port in June 2018. I guess this sits nicely with their Darwin Port holding and now their military foothold in The Solomons. Almost feels as though our national security has been gift wrapped to China under the Coalition.

  29. Might just tune in to this….

    COMING UP | NSW Treasurer @Matt_KeanMP will join @BenFordham after 7AM. Tune in at @2GB873.

    Requires registration, so won’t be handing over any details to ShoutBack Radio

  30. C@tmomma @ #28 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 6:53 am

    So Morrison obviously had his ‘Trans Women in Sport’ wedge lined up, with Katherine Deves as his avatar, ventriloquist’s dummy and candidate for Warringah, idling in neutral and raring to go in a seemingly personally-created job for her to cool her high heels in as she waited for the starter’s gun to go off:

    Deves’ preselection came two months after reports in early February revealing the recent law graduate and former Treasury Wine Estates marketer was co-founder of the Save Women’s Sport lobby group.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/candidate-s-distasteful-comments-are-a-stain-on-the-liberal-party-20220419-p5aeln.html

    What lawyer goes into a marketing job? I bet Treasury Wine Estates are Liberal Party donors as well.

    Appears to be a subsidiary of Fosters Brewing (was owned by John Elliot – past president of Liberal party)

  32. Labor is 100% correct if the lib/nats do not have plans to introduce the indue welfare debitcard , to all welfare why are they keeping quiet , get rid of the indue welfare debitcard

  33. Ross Gittins gets it:

    Now, let me ask you a question: does it sound to you as though our big problem at present is an acute shortage of jobs, jobs, jobs?

    If you’ve heard of generals fighting the last war rather than coming to grips with the present one, now you know that prime ministers are prone to the same mistake.

    So, why is Morrison claiming to have made getting us a lot more jobs his priority, when there must surely be more pressing problems he should be focused on? Two reasons.

    One is that Australia’s had a problem with insufficient jobs – aka high rates of unemployment – since the late 1970s. This was the case for so long – did I mention 50 years? – the notion that a shortage of jobs is an eternal feature of economic life is now lodged deeply in many people’s minds.

    And, as is the practice of modern politicians, Morrison finds it easier to pander to our misconceptions than to straighten them out.

    “You think we can never have enough jobs? OK, I promise to create another 1.3 million of ’em.”

    … The other reason Morrison wants to talk about jobs, jobs, jobs is to direct our attention towards his economic successes and away from his economic failure: since a year or two before the Coalition’s election in 2013, wages have struggled to keep up with the rising cost of living.

    If Anthony Albanese was a sharper politician, he’d be telling us his priorities were wages, wages, wages.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-not-jobs-we-re-short-of-it-s-jobs-that-pay-decent-wages-20220419-p5aebk.html

  35. Why run a baseless scare campaign when the Government’s bad record and ineptitude are scary enough. I don’t understand why Labor isn’t hammering home how useless the Government have been and that this won’t change, but are instead running lame scare campaigns on things that are too complex to understand, and don’t have the ring of truth to them.

    Why has Labor only had a single competent election campaign federally in this century?

  37. What lawyer goes into a marketing job? I bet Treasury Wine Estates are Liberal Party donors as well.

    Other way around – former marketer, now law graduate.

  39. And PVO comments on the blue-on-blue dogfight…

    Time for a spray: I’m beyond disappointed how weak and insipid federal moderate Liberals are not demanding the candidate for Warringah be sacked. It’s not just her views on transgender, it’s the offensive bile attached to how she expresses herself. They are collectively pathetic.

  41. In all fairness to Shanananan (ha. yeah sure), he’s probably right that 75% of the people voting for the Teals are sourced from non-libs. It’s the 25% that come from the libs that are the killer. For the libs.

  44. Strange approach from Marise Payne on RN just now, babbling on about the “Pacific family” (whatever that is) and insisting the China-Solomons pact is a “sovereign decision”. If Albo baits him well on this at tonight’s debate, we might get a serious meltdown from Morrison

  45. Itep,

    They’ve taken the opportunity as it presented itself.

    Morrison announced Ruston as the prospective Health Minister, Labor teed off on it.

    There is only so much the public will take in each day, so they are keeping the message focused.

  46. Wonder how SkyNews will prep the 100 uncommitted voters for tonight’s People’s Forum and make them ready for Albo and ScoMo?

    Apparently they have been sourced from some outfit called Q&A Research – their google reviews are shockers!

  47. Good for Karen who is nailing her blue colours to the mast to be sure.It certainly appears that the not for profit and charity sectors have in the past and most likely present been a great source of well paid jobs and sinecures for the well connected. Most of these well connected are of course LNP members or fellow travellers. No wonder they are able to have such a good laugh at and look down upon the rest of us. It also tells us that Josh Frythebudget is in some real strife down there.

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