The weekly poll from Roy Morgan finds Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 last week and the narrowest the heavily Labor-leaning series has had it since October. Its distinction with Newspoll is now down to preferences, since the major party primary votes are similar to those of Newspoll and indeed Resolve Strategic: 35.5% for the Coalition, up three, and 35% for Labor, down one. However, it’s already strong reading for the Greens has become even more pronounced, with a one-and-a-half point increase to 14%, while One Nation is down half a point to 4.5% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1.5%. I calculate that this would pan out to 53.7-46.3 on 2019 preference flows, but Roy Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences have been consistently more favourable to Labor.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (in from 55-45 for a swing of about 6%), 58-42 in Victoria (steady, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (out from 50.5-49.5, a swing of around 10%), 58-42 in South Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of about 7%) and 61-39 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll unusually credits the Coalition with a lead in Western Australia of 51-49, after Labor led by fully 63.5-36.5 last time, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday through to Sunday from a sample of 1382.
The Guardian also has the latest voting intention results from Essential Research, which may already be available in full here by the time you read this. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences and inclusive of an undecided component, suggests the Coalition have all but closed the gap, with Labor down three to 47% and the Coalition up one to 46%. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation down one to 3% and the United Australia Party up one to 4%.
Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up five on disapproval to 41%, whereas Scott Morrison’s ratings are all but unchanged, his approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 48%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-36, compared with 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.
UPDATE: The poll also offers personal ratings for Adam Bandt (33% approval and 27% disapproval) and Barnaby Joyce (33% approval and 45% disapproval), and finds a 55-45 split in favour of Labor on a forced response question for party expected to win the election. A semi-regular question on “views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government” recorded little change on May, with a steady 48% rating it was “time to give someone else a go” compared with 34% who went for the alternative option that the government deserves to be re-elected, up two.
“There was nothing fiscal conservative or small government about her.”
***
There still isn’t…
Bronwyn Bishop rails against socialists while collecting a $250k pension from taxpayers
March 30, 2017
Consider this: since Bronwyn Bishop finally left the federal Parliament nine months ago – kicking and screaming after being rolled by her own party – Australian taxpayers have paid her nearly $200,000.
Her parliamentary pension delivers her roughly $700 a day – 11 times more than your average age pensioner. She gets more every single day than workers on the minimum wage get in a week.
Is your blood boiling yet? Well, we’ll be paying her about a quarter of a million dollars every year for the rest of her life.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bronwyn-bishop-rails-against-socialists-while-collecting-a-250k-pension-from-taxpayers-20170330-gv9kjc.html
It’s interesting, historically … the moments the media decide are important in the debates, don’t end up being the thing people start talking about.
sprocket_ @ #1163 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 9:02 pm
Could be worse, he could have a trans gender child or, gasp shock horror, a gay child. Oh the shame…
Shellbell:
A very nice fish dish that I can’t recall the name of, and a creme brulee for desert.
I agree with you on that one, Nath.
Alias, tired, whatever, he let the facade slip.
NDIS new assessment criteria does not favour children with autism.
Morrison’s social media answer to the young woman who asked about getting young ppl to trust politics was the complete opposite of what he should have said. Blaming soc media for the world’s ills will have lost most ppl under 30 – (much like saying the telephone caused the boomer generation’s social ills).
Thought Albo went really well. He’s not a snake oil salesman but the fact he’s sometimes a bit clunky works for him when the opponent is slick but people know he’s selling bullshit.
He’s starting to get some momentum up now. Thought it notable the ICAC issue got a run twice from the punters. Also thought it was funny that Clennell, who is the national political editor for Sky, was somehow caught by surprise that people think it’s important.
Sky is a parallel universe though. Spare me having to watch it again for another three years.
Knowing somebody with two profoundly autistic children, and seeing first hand what they, their mother, her parents and extended relatives and some friends have to endure for the love of their family, and then reading your insensitive, sneering, and insolent comment, the nicest thing I can say to you Freya Stark is, I hope you rot in hell.
Fell into a Google vortex after the debate, ending up with a video all about the Theremin and how to play it.
I reckon I’d be a natural for it. Watching the lady on the instrument I could feel the notes she was making. Apparently you can buy them off ebay for under $700. “Moog” brand, too!
Anyway, listening to Theremin music reminded me of Bernard Hermann’s classic score for the original version of The Day The Earth Stood Still. So I accessed it off the HDD attached to the telly, and we are now watching it, with great delight.
What a fabulous movie!
Stephen Conroy on Sky just said that based on the Primary Votes he thinks it will be a hung parliament. He does not beleive that the 2PP polls are accurate as the preference flows are not accurate.
His view is that Labor needs a PV of 37% to form majority govt.
BB, icymi Philip Adams interviewed a woman on LNL last night who was speaking about that very instrument (among other things).
My son said that facebook is going off about the ‘Blessed are my children, for they are not disabled’ comment by Morrison.
I much prefer the original, “The day the earth stood still”.
Michael Rennie had great gravitas.
L’Arse the impartial referee gives every round to ScoMo for an emphatic win on the scorecard
Albo wins the studio vote 🙂
Lying Lars you’ve had a stinker tonight
Even Nath your usual reach around buddy kept his hands in his pockets
Sad!
I’d be careful about making too much out of the disabled comment. In fact Albanese might get more mileage out of siding with Morrison and saying he misspoke and not to judge him too harshly, but judge him for what he has done to the NDIS.
Bushfire Bill:
I can recommend listening to the Good Vibrations episode in the history of rock music in 500 songs by Andrew Hickie (available on Spotify and his own website). It’s all about the history of the Theremin and how Brian Wilson ended up using a version of it.
Ray (UK) at 9:39 pm
Lars watched the same feed Toad Murray watched. Apparently, according to Murray, it all looked very different to what the peasants at home saw.
ltep @ #1205 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 9:40 pm
Agree, it could be seen as the media being anti christian.
The Daily Toilet paper did their own survey on who won the debate and guess what..yep 81 to 19 in Scomo’s favour. Even Andrew Bolt gave the win to Albanese ffs.
No-one really won but it will Scomo who faces some uncomfortable questions about his “blessed to not have disabled children” response to a woman with 2 autistic children in his presser’s tomorrow. That seems to be the dominant take out appearing in the papers tonight, even in the Oz. Come on Scotty, spin your way out of this one.
Agree with others that ALBO should leave it alone and let the media sharks get after Scomo about it.
Bully for you Ray(UK).
Dumb take itep.
It’s already front page news on smh.com
This sort of hamfisted comment resonates and lingers, Albo rightly won’t touch it.
Freya at 9.07pm
I find your comment disgusting. To paraphrase Grace Tame ‘I shouldn’t need to be disabled, or know someone who is, to empathise with a disabled person’s situation.’
The only way Morrison could ’empathise’ (he actually can’t) was by comparing his life with the mother of the autistic child. He could have focused on the mother’s needs and started by saying ‘I guess that’s thrown up some challenges and blessing for you…’ Maybe allow her to say something else, THEN talk about a policy response, having actually experienced something of HER feelings (which, by the way, is empathy.)
For you to say that only people directly affected by disability would criticise Morrison is a disgusting slur on the empathic capacity of the broader Australian community.
Shame on you.
D
Michael Rennie also scored a mention in The Rocky Horror Picture Show’s theme song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Boz0O1SqM
@peroti – this was the point at which Murray clearly already knew the result and was telling the viewers not to believe the judgement of the studio audience. Such pathetic and transparent behaviour.
On reflection I think Morrison clearly won the debate because he managed not to call the audience ‘Mr Speaker’
Albo just needs to let Morrison stew in his own mess – don’t feed, but don’t run interference, you will not be thanked.
Oz:
China to fast-track troops to Solomons
Australia and the US are bracing for the rapid deployment of Chinese security forces to the Solomon Islands, fearing Beijing will move to seal a controversial new security agreement.
Youtube has opened our eyes to so many different musical styles, instruments etc.
“Klaatu berada nicto!” to all.
Bernard Hermann’s score for the movie is a work of genius. It actually brought tears to these tough old eyes.
Ray (UK) says:
Even Nath your usual reach around buddy kept his hands in his pockets
____________
Ah Ray (UK). C@t’s geriatric knight in shining armor! Good luck with that.
Snappy Tomsays:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 9:47 pm
Freya at 9.07pm
I find your comment disgusting. To paraphrase Grace Tame ‘I shouldn’t need to be disabled, or know someone who is, to empathise with a disabled person’s situation.’
The only way Morrison could ’empathise’ (he actually can’t) was by comparing his life with the mother of the autistic child. He could have focused on the mother’s needs and started by saying ‘I guess that’s thrown up some challenges and blessing for you…’ Maybe allow her to say something else, THEN talk about a policy response, having actually experienced something of HER feelings (which, by the way, is empathy.)
For you to say that only people directly affected by disability would criticise Morrison is a disgusting slur on the empathic capacity of the broader Australian community.
Shame on you.
+1
Ray has a point nath, your usual instant defence/response to Edwina’s posts were missed tonight. By some. Apparently.
nath @ #1224 Wednesday, April 20th, 2022 – 9:55 pm
Is that the best you’ve got?
LongMemory82From what you are saying, Conroy is suggesting that the Coalition will actually get a stronger preference flow than they received in 2019. He may of course turn out to be right, but I doubt it.
Jeez, LVT really jumped the shark tonight, didn’t he?
Henry says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 10:00 pm
Ray has a point nath, your usual instant defence/response to Edwina’s posts were missed tonight. By some. Apparently.
__________________________
We’ve always said we have different views on topics.
Britain Elects Retweeted
Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
·
15h
Nationwide poll leads, two weeks to the local elections in…
2016: Con +2 ————-> Lab +1 actual result (BBC projected national vote)
2017: Con +17————-> Con +11
2018: Con +1 ————–> Tied
2019: Lab +2 —– ——- -> Tied
2021: Con +8————–> Con +7
2022: Lab +6
PS I have added the ‘actual’ results to the tweet
D at 9:50 pm
It is also fantastic for finding old or obscure music. But yes. It is great for finding some really different music you’d never hear of otherwise.
Conjoined twins often do Edwina.
Heh… two headlines at the SMH right now:
“Albanese wins first debate, live audience says.”
“Leaders play it safe as first debate ends in a nil-all draw, says David Crowe.”
Pundits versus The People: says it all about the state of play, actually.
Hang on……Smearstralian reporting China to fast track troops to the Solomons ???
OK, pretty obvious move to ramp up the Scary China meme to try and get people to focus on the perception that the Coalition is stronger on national security.
Have they noticed the utter load of damaging shit being dumped on Morrison today over the foreign policy disaster this represents, and how the fwarkkup is ALL being put down to the Libs. ?? 🙂
The Rupertarium is worried about FICAC . They’ve sent out The Pontificator in Chief…….
.
.
Public sold a bill of goods on rorts body
It begins with the fantasy promoted by Labor, the independents and retired judges that an anti-corruption commission will end rorts and pork-barrelling. This is ludicrous.
PAUL KELLY
Editor-At-Large
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/public-sold-a-bill-of-goods-on-federal-icac/news-story/eb46645016f26c08b16023af63ab2cdd
Pi says:
Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 10:03 pm
Jeez, LVT really jumped the shark tonight, didn’t he?
_________________________________
Sad to say, your a low impact poster Pi.
This is weird but plausible.
From Guardian blog
Alex Hern
A Ukrainian man has been able to follow the redeployment of the Russian soldiers who looted his hometown – by tracking his Airpods as they move around Ukraine.
Vitaliy Semenets shared a screenshot of his stolen headphones on Instagram, showing that they had settled in Russia, on the other side of the country’s border with Ukraine, about 90 miles east of Kharkiv, where Russian forces are thought to be regrouping in preparation for a renewed assault on eastern Ukraine. “Thanks to technology, I know where my headphones from my home in Gostomel went,” he said.
The tracking, possible thanks to Apple’s Find My service, is another example of consumer technology companies accidentally providing actionable military intelligence in the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the early days of the war, columns of Russian armour showed up on Google Maps as traffic jams, allowing open source investigators to follow the progress of the invasion.
🙂
I guess the takeaway from ScoMo’s comment is that the blessed have normal kids, and only the cursed have disabled kids.
Itep,
If Albanese has demonstrated anything over the last 3 years it’s a well-honed ability to stand back and let others pile on to Morrison and the Liberals.
BB,
I believe that’s what my wife’s Facebook stream heard.
Something that occurred to me the otherday is that someday some community will live in a seat named Morrison.
From the Sydney Morning Herald site…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese-accuse-each-other-of-scare-campaigns-ahead-of-first-televised-debate-20220419-p5aekd.html
Select 8.34pm “Morrison criticised after saying he’s been “blessed” not to have disabled children
By Latika Bourke”
Some excerpts…
‘Labor frontbencher Katy Gallagher said that she was blessed to have a child with autism.
“I am “blessed” to have a child with autism. She teaches me things every day. Our lives are enriched by her,” Gallagher said on Twitter.’
and…
‘Labor’s disabilities spokesman and architect of the National Disability Insurance Scheme Bill Shorten also weighed in.
“ScoMo says he is ‘blessed’ to have two non-disabled children. Every child is a blessing. The NDIS is there to help people with disability live their lives to the fullest,” Shorten tweeted.
“The Morrison Gov has slashed NDIS plans for 1000s of children around Australia. Labor will fix the NDIS,” the former Labor leader said.’