The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
Labor needs to keep just two things in mind in the run to 21 May:
1. This election is a referendum on the Coalition government and its leaders.
2. The media are either neutral or on the side of the Coalition and they will not cut Labor a break if they can avoid it.
The rest is noise.
hhe actualyis not a good campaigner since about 2021 has hardly campaigned with the publick most got bad reception when he has made an unscripted apeearince the pentioner the labor party pepople in gilmore so do not know whiy media keeps up with the myth that his thisoutstanding campaigner about as good as shortin 2016 has no policies just a repeat of 2019 dont trustlabor labor leader isiva wdeak or in shortens case to much policies dutton wants his job how ever if labor wins which is likely albanese should send shorten off to a diplomatick poasting to get him out of parliament as his gariented to chalinge as demonstrated now buy his white anting on today show today on rudd and the kitching stuff seeking to ause this to ddamage marles as he no longer controls vick labor right
Not sure why but I suspect both majors’ primary votes will be higher on the day than the polls suggest. Just as some will plan to vote Labor but revert back to Lib – some will fall back from minor parties to the majors.
Hazza – PHON+UAP = 8% in 2022 Newspoll, 6.5% in 2019 election.
Still only gets the Libs to 37.5% if it comes home.
I am now convinced the albo “gaffe” was staged. Its was an ALP false flag, has worked brilliantly. Now all the big guns are pounding at Albo while the important targets are infiltrating behind the coalition lines and running amok unchallenged. When you think about it the issue for this election is not Albo’s cognitive processes, the issues are God bothering nutters running defense, economy and foreign policy, cost of living, corruption et all.
It was a given the Vichy press sharks would attack at the smell of blood, so the ALP spread some burly in the water. Now albo is the underdog and the important issues are emerging unopposed. The coalition are nothing if not utterly predictable.
I reckon Tony Abbott, Morrison and Perrottet were drawn to Katherine Deves because she is, to employ a phrase my father would have used, “a bit of alright”.
The fact she was in their minds decidedly “anti-woke” was icing on the cake. But I reckon they all quite fancied her, and now won’t abandon a damsel in distress. The whole notion of some carefully devised plot to captivate the hearts of religious conservatives in western Sydney seems far-fetched.
of corse bolt is saying this he wants dutton as leader for years however dutton is even more gath prone than albanese when ever interviewed buy a half decent interviewer like tingle and unlike the a properganda soft ball ray hadley he gets pasive agresive and tries to talk over the interview with over the top acuzations and attacking the jernalist do not understanding duttons mythacle apeel has no empathy about as polished as abott has failed in defence with masive ccost blow outstries to use racizm like his attacks on china to undermine our security and was responsible for gp co payment and apozed the apology he was frecklingtons procksie in 2020 and failed to get rid of palascheck desbite being defacto leader
“Greensborough Growler
Many thanks for the Project clip. ”
Can confidently assert that The Project is obviously heavily biased against the ALP.
Evidence…….. that they gave Graham Morris time to speak. 🙂
FFS, that was such a fwarking train wreck for the Libs.
“ Our Rear-Admiral declared it on March 13. Once again ur late.”
That declaration was made BEFORE it became apparent that Labor was intent on contesting the election without a coherent economic narrative as its centre piece. I naively assumed that Labor wouldn’t be repeating its mistakes of 2019 and I am still stunned that it seems determined to repeat the worse aspect, only this time without the 300 individual policies.
of course, labor could still win this without an economic centrepiece narrative: a month ago we were about 55/45 on pollbludger, as opposed to about 52/48 at the same period in 2019. Morrison was going to the election with a massive tax bribe. the budget was ‘back in black (next year)’. ScoMo was everybody’s daddy dad, with his appalling track record in office. having half a dozen baubles to display to the punters is probably an easier sell than 300 – some of which appeared to be nasties (but really weren’t).
However, I remain concerned about the extent to which labor has vacated the field on what i think is the key issue to low interest low information voters: economic security and future prosperity: whilst individual components are there, they don’t go far enough and there is no overarching policy framework to drive the narrative.
AE,
Costello still believes the Libs lost in 2007 because of the interest rate rise during the Election.
The fact is that Fixed rates have risen 2% since October last year, inflation is probably 5% and we are still sitting on 0.1% rate. There’s a reckoning about to happen and voters are notoriously adept at blaming Governments for their predicament.
Not everyone is as comfortably well off as you.
We got four bits of election propaganda here in Bass today in the letter box
1 “When his position changes with the wind, it won’t be easy under Albanese” playing on the unknown about Albanese in Tasmania {Liberal Party of Tasmania]
2 “Introducing my bloody good mate”- Jacqui Lambie about her senate candidate.
3 The stuff I put in letterboxes “Tasmania can’t risk three more years of
Scott Morrison. You can’t believe a word he says” (ALP Tasmania] and
4 The Truth about Bridget Archer who “voted against protecting people of faith from discrimination. Do her attacks on Christianity and other faiths accord with your values ?” [Australian Christian Lobby]
In essence, the Liberals will lose some skin in PV to the Jacqui Lambie mob in the HOR and Senate and people of “faith” might lodge a protest vote against Archer in Bass to make it harder for her to hang on to a very skinny 2PP margin of 500+ votes. People might know and loathe Scomo but some may not ‘risk’ the unknown Albo.
Interesting times as always in this menacing corner of Australia. UAP won’t preference anyone {he says] so that will add more votes to the ‘who the f…k do we preference’ column in Bass, Braddon and Lyons.
PS: Andrew Earlwood you are so full of crap I don’t bother reading your posts anymore- it never make sense and at best you are a wet blanket.
Shrodingers Cat says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:05 pm
____________________________
Now I’ve heard it all – false flag operation.
What next – there’s been a honey trap deployed for ScoMo?
Who is the Honey Trap?
Has anyone noticed that the Government will not attack Albanese’s record as a Minister from 2007 through to 2013? It’s because they don’t want to admit he has serious experience in government, so they try and present him as someone without experience.
Except it’s a dumb move. Every Labor leader who has won power from Opposition since WW2 has not been ‘tainted’ by association with a previous government: Whitlam, Hawke and Rudd had never had governmental experience. The ones who had – Calwell, Evatt, Hayden, Beazley, Crean, Shorten could not crack it.
So, in trying to paint Albanese as inexperienced the Coalition is also painting him as a cleanskin. The press, in not making a point of Albanese’s experience, thinks it is helping Morrison and co, but they are actually doing Albanese a favour. All Albanese has to do is stick to making Morrison’s incompetence and nastiness the issue and the public will vote for Labor.
Oh dear. Debbie Downer is back.
” Hazza – PHON+UAP = 8% in 2022 Newspoll, 6.5% in 2019 election.”
Their raison d’être is to funnel the votes of the stupid and the uninformed to the Coalition.
Evidence…….. that they gave Graham Morris time to speak.
FFS, that was such a fwarking train wreck for the Libs.
______________________________
To me, he looked like he had just downed his third bottle of turps.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Fraser tried the Bradfield Scheme as he was going down the gurgler in 1983.
I think it was Laurie Oakes who said “he has pulled that one out of his third form social studies text book”
_________
Classic!
Wasn’t Tony Abbott’s nickname, the ‘Weathervane’? The Liberals thought it was alright for HIM to lead the nation.
Lars doing sock puppetry again I see.
Aaron newton at 9:06 pm
If BoltA gets his wish we can crank up this meme again. It was very popular for a while.
.
.
When this photo of Australia’s immigration minister, Peter Dutton, appeared online, his team said it was too “unflattering” and asked for it to be taken down.
But Twitter wasn’t happy with this request and the picture went viral.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-36202165
After Asking For A Photo To Be Taken Off Twitter, This Politician Became A Meme
https://www.buzzfeed.com/bradesposito/of-course-mr-dutton-we-wont-rt-anything
Has Labor actually rebutted the weathervane ad? Or let it through to the keeper?
Graham Morris does not look healthy, very much a back rooms stirring the cauldron kind of vibe about him.
“ Costello still believes the Libs lost in 2007 because of the interest rate rise during the Election.”
The circumstances were that Rudd made it a centrepiece of his campaign that he was an economic conservative when it came to managing the nation’s finances. he made it a virtue that he stoped trying to match Howard’s increasingly desperate tax cut auction and boondoggling. So … when interest rates rose, folk who actually cared about such things saw in Rudd a younger version of what they (falsely) imagined Howard to be: a careful Stewart of tax payers money.
Exactly HOW has Albo ‘tilled the soil’ to exploit this issue NOW in the same way Rudd was able to do so THEN?
If you think about it, the comparison should terrify you. Labor is still sleep walking on the back of anti morrison sentiment and a belief that yes social policies will swing undecided voters. This is a potential 2019 redux, not a 2007 moment.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 6:41 pm
I understand Harvey Norman accepts Indue cards
Gerry doesn’t sell goods he sells credit.. to people that can’t afford it… predatory come to mind.
The “goods” are just the bait.
Rebutting doesn’t work. It just reinforces the original framing. Ignore it and talk about Morrison’s colleagues’ many spontaneous character assessments of the PM.
Good post Earlwood. I agree.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:12 pm
Oh dear. Debbie Downer is back.
______________________________
A very good Labor-inclined friend of mine, who is in the same business as GG, shocked me the other day by taking the so-called ‘gaffe’ very seriously. The fact that even people who understand economics and finance are getting worked up over the inability to recite a statistic, which is among the most meaningless and compromised produced by ABS, tells me that 95% of the Australian population would not know a coherent economic narrative if it was shoved down their throat, forced through the whole alimentary canal and pushed out past the hemhorroids at the other end.
It’s a referendum on Morrison. Full stop. End of Story. Albanese is not Whitlam, Hawke or Rudd. Nobody will vote for him. But they will vote to clear out the bastards who are currently destroying this country if they are constantly reminded of just how awful they are.
nath @ #778 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 9:19 pm
I don’t.
Tony Windsor tweeted https://twitter.com/tonyhwindsor/status/1516200278726688768?s=21&t=5q5mn6bwnyUdaiEnI5NzkA
Reminds me of my last conversation with scott Morrison when he had failed in negotiations with me relating to an amendment to an Immigration Bill. He looked at me and said “ You can go and get fu#ked then”. He go off like a frog in a sock with a hung Parliament.
Not exactly prime ministerial…
Now, who said there was no Labor candidate running against Scott Morrison in Cook?
Jack Boyd
@CrJackBoyd
·
3h
Hey Twitter, meet Simon Earle – the
@AustralianLabor
candidate to take on Scott Morrison in Cook.
Simon is the CEO of a training company and a former primary school teacher
A real local, he lives in Caringbah with his wife Emma and their two children and has done for 30 years.
I saw my first election ads on SBS.
I think it said “life is easy with Albanese” and from the Liberal Party, of all things!
I don’t think it is very catchy. The rhyme is a too bit kindergarten!
Has Labor done any more ads than the piggy ad? It seems to be the only one?
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:22 pm
C@t, you can tell the quality of a post by who agrees with it!
Andrew_Earlwood,
The election starts on the 26th.
There’s potential in the ALP policies for the creation of a lithium battery industry that labor can spin into, new mines, new jobs, green jobs, jobs, jobs for everyone, that are all green and great and amazing and pay well. Also shit tons of solar and batteries and retraining and jobs.
And then talk about green new jobs, having a target, but not being fussed if we crush the emissions target because we’re making so much money with our green industries that we’re going to build. And while we’re at it, we’re going to do more manufacturing here too.
Scomo has the right idea with his droning of, jobs, jobs, jobs. Labor just need to take that and make it about climate change, and then frame the economic argument around not being corrupt.
Those two things will help focus voters. As much as we’re a conservative country, Australian’s like the engage with the fantasy of living in a fairly cutting edge country, so green jobs and renewable energy industries actually fit that mold.
TPOF,
If you (not you personally), can’t see that Earlwood gets fixated with things and sees everything through the lens of his current fixation, then you need to clean your glasses.
And yes, anyone who applauds someone of the Labor faith giving Labor a bloody nose day in, day out, will get their hearty endorsement. You can guarantee it.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:30 pm
TPOF,
If you can’t see that Earlwood gets fixated with things and sees everything through the lens of his current fixation, then you need to clean your glasses.
_________
Yes, clean your glasses silly TPOF.
AE,
Well we will see how it all transpires.
I reckon last week did not matter at all in this Election.
Today has been really strong for Labor through strong performances across the board.
Morrison being in WA has missed the boat on defending the Government in NSW today and because no one else is prepared to do it, then there is a complete vacuum.
Who is the the gun politician on the Lib side that is going to step up?
I reckon the Libs are screwed and it only gets worse for them in coming weeks.
More about Deves’s views from the article below:
“The submission also claims that establishing gender neutral toilets can lead to an increase in urinary tract infections (UTIs) because children and teens are fearful of going to the toilet.
Arguing against the need for medical interventions, she states that rather than needing hormones or surgery, many had pre-existing mental health issues or were on the autism spectrum.
“There is a growing group of concerned parents who have suffered already due to this policy – ordinary, caring, diligent parents whose children have come to believe ‘transitioning’ is a solution to their problems,’’ the Save Our Women’s Sport submission states.
“Many children ‘diagnosed’ with ‘gender dysphoria’ have pre-existing mental health issues; are on the autism spectrum; or are simply gender non-conforming and would likely grow up to be gay or Lesbian if they are left alone.”
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/the-project-hosts-stunned-by-former-liberal-chief-of-staffs-trans-argument/news-story/ae74937e21a5aa72268edf76a9755c27
Schrodinger
Barring any conspiracy out of Sussex Street it’s too early to say the campaign dynamics favour Labor considerably.
nath says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 8:12 pm
This thing could be the most Queensland thing ever put on tv.
—————————-
It destroys me emotionally that I was unable to access the Great Debate.
However Intellectually and well blood pressure wise I may have had a win.
Queenslander!!
“ Oh dear. Debbie Downer is back.”
look. I’m just not prepared to sleep walk over a cliff, just because I’m a true believer comrade. Every single winning campaign that Labor has conducted in opposition at a federal level since WW2 has put the economy at the front and centre:
Whitlam’s ‘the program’ was based on the harnessing of economic growth: no nasties, just economic growth giving the federal government the economic heft to roll out all the goodies.
Hawke promised to bring people together, via a national concessions process to fix the economy. It was vague, but it actually worked!
Rudd was an economic conservative, who promised to harness the savvy frugalness of his struggling dairy farmer upbringing to carefully manage the Nation’s finances whilst implementing labor’s agenda in education, health and climate change.
Albo? Well: He’s not Scott morrison and promises to bundy on for work at 8am sharp every day. … and that’s about it.
What shits me most about this is that there is a real economic problem that labor could have addressed as it’s election centre piece: supply chain fuelled inflation. everything that forms a potential bauble could be hung off that: insecure work, depressed incomes, lack of skills training, a lack of a proper permanent skills migration program.
Instead, Labor has run away. check out how the Liberal’s are running their social media strategy: 1 facebook ad will boldly assert “Our Plan is Working” – usually pointing to the headline rate of unemployment. The next boldly raises the spectre of the risk to the economy that Albo and labor pose. These people ain’t political propaganda amateurs: they know what is their best chances of getting the right reaction to their target audience. This is a massive sleeping giant in this campaign, and if that giant awakes because of an interest rate rise in the first week of may, watch for the counterfactual political swing. Labor has its pants down around its ankles. not because of a stupid memory blank gaffe, but the completely empty cupboard behind the gaffes.
C@t
There’s ya problem. You think of it as a religion. So it’s ‘death to the infidels and heretics’ eh .
It’s not over, but it’s looking better for the alp and scomo and co may have run out of ideas?
It appears labor have changed tact and are now on the front foot, while scomo and co are fighting fires on multiple fronts.
A few more weeks like today and we can then maybe start thinking the alp can win.
A lot hedges on the leader debates and scare campaigns.
Schrodingers … I had a thought of a similar thing:
Labor was having trouble getting attn for Albo … since name recognition is important — what is the best way to get the media to concentrate on you? Do or say something outrageous. Trump was a master at it. Morrison does it and Joyce does it daily (and media lap it up as ‘great retail politician’!)
Now Albo has the country’s attention, today was the old strong, “fighting tories” Albo. He was suddenly confident and clear in his message. I was wondering earlier whether Albo had been playing possum until after easter.
In an unprecedented move, in 2007, the RBA increased interest rates not only during an election year but during an election campaign (to 7.25%)
Labor won that election despite Howard saying interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition government
Since those increases we have had accomodative settings – to give impetus to an under performing economy (noting the GFC and the Pandemic – but these rate settings, designed to accomodate economic recovery have now persisted for 14 years which is the story)
Now we have supply line interruptions and volatility with the price of crude (USD107 a barrel) spiking inflation, the 10 Year Bond Yield over 3%
And the spike in Bond Yields sees funds under management (our superannuation accruals) under pressure and negative fiscal YTD – particularly Conservative holdings down in excess of 3% at least
Our Superannuation statements will not make for good reading (something not receiving media coverage)
The benefit is that, with increasing interest rates and arbitrage spread, bank share prices should outperform given lending holds up
Bear in mind that there is a claw back in play because housing loans are serviced on a principal plus interest basis
So you have to run faster to stay in the same spot
Barrie is hammering Ms Deves & Scottie…
https://twitter.com/barriecassidy
As I suspected Clive Palmer has left the door open where lower house preferences will go. The declaration of sitting MPs be placed last on how to vote cards which could harm LNP MPs chances in Queensland is looking doubtful.
“But on Tuesday night, Mr Palmer ruled out preferencing the LNP on the UAP’s Senate ticket, and signalled MPs who supported Hughes MP Craig Kelly in the lower house may also move higher up the party’s how to vote cards.
Mr Palmer ultimately left the door open to where the UAP’s preferences will fall in the lower house.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2022-maverick-politicians-do-battle-in-election-debate/news-story/988e5d13a6b6ccd0f3974f16b8acb50e
nath @ #1036 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 9:31 pm
Too quick off the mark with your snark, nath. I’ve edited it so that TPOF understands I wasn’t talking about him. Hmm, can you guess who I WAS talking about? 😉
New Liberal Ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPng4lHZYrA
I really think Labor needs to rebut this.
”
nathsays:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Fraser tried the Bradfield Scheme as he was going down the gurgler in 1983.
I think it was Laurie Oakes who said “he has pulled that one out of his third form social studies text book”
_________
Classic!
”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradfield_Scheme