The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
The strains of the first week have shown on Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, his approval rating down five to 37% and disapproval up six to 51%. Scott Morrison is respectively up one to 43% and down two to 52%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 44-37. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.
It is not only federally and in South Australia that the Pentecostals and their fellow travelers have infested the (once) Liberal Party of Australia.
Look at the Internal Review after they were wiped out in WA.
Look at the reasons for the resignation of the SA State MP who became Speaker
Look at Victoria, Bastiaan and Sukkar recruiting Pentecostals and Mormons to gain control of the Victorian State Division, which they have achieved (due to low membership numbers reducing daily because of the age demographic)
Then you have Morrison, Hawke and the Premier in NSW, those 3 in effective control of the NSW Division as confirmed with pre-selections and who is gaining pre-selection.
I do not know about Queensland or Tasmania – perhaps other can fill in those gaps.
Ditto the ACT and the Northern Territory.
The likes of Chaney (noting his daughter is a “Teal”candidate), McPhee, Georgiou et al are long since gone and with them went the Liberal Party of Australia.
I understand that the son of a former Victorian Liberal Party Premier is running the campaign for one of the “Teals” in Melbourne.
And, just to add, in the seat of Sukkar, where we have children residing, they have received a multi page “Newsletter” today from Sukkar.
The only time they have heard from him – noting the Railway Station Car Parks have not had a sod of earth turned (a “promise” from the last election)
It’s pretty obvious that Labor would have a far easier time working with any of the likely House crossbench apart from Katter, so if they decided to go into opposition without 72 that’d be a pretty bizarre indictment on their ability to play nice with others to achieve their agenda – something that Labor has generally been much better at (Gillard, Rann, Bracks, Beattie, Palaczszcuk etc).
@Martin B – the kicker is the Senate.
In the ALP 72 seat scenario (which is still pretty unlikely at this point) – even if the Teals guarantee supply, all the Government can (and will promise) is support in the House. They will be hoping and praying for RWNJ control of the Senate, where all the progressive-ish leg will do to die.
They’ve made their commitment with the hope they never have to deliver on it.
Plus, who was the last Leader of the House to manage a minority government?
hazza4257 @ #562 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 2:34 pm
Well then, they would be immediately be betraying the very reason people voted for them.
And Michael Pachi, Channel 9 mouthpiece for politics – a change of tactic. The purpose – to massage the 53-47 most recent Newspoll…
Now the line is, wtte, “That it is increasingly likely to be a hung parliament at the moment”….Reason? “Well, the Primary vote of both parties is low…………” But, this mind you, like his other Liberal friendly journos at the West, without the guts or more candidly, the integrity, to actual tell his listening audience that the lead to Labor is 53-47 which, in and of itself, is hardly “hung parliament” territory….
It seems its all chips in now for Morrison as he has said Deves “won’t be silenced”. The factional warfare lines have now been drawn in the election arena between conservative and moderate NSW Liberals. It seems very risky to hedge all your bets on a candidate who is unlikely to win Warringah and alienate moderate Liberal voters at the same time.
The Ukraine Central Intelligence Agency has released online the personal details (pages of information, including name, birthdate, passport numbers, job titles etc) of the 1,600 Russian soldiers who were recently stationed in Bucha, one of the sites of gross war crimes.
Is this called “doxing”?
https://www.wired.com/story/russia-ukraine-data/
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 2:50 pm
Why would Wilkie support Labor when a lot of those from Labor members from NSW who stiffed him on pokie reforms are still there ..?
I wouldn’t count him, no way..
___________________________________________________________
I think Wilkie would support Labor in a hung parliament, if only because his constituents in Clark would probably not forgive him for installing a Coalition government. It was much the same with Windsor and Oakeshott alienating their electors by backing Labor, despite the benefits this delivered to their electorates.
BTW, Labor MPs did not "stiff" Wilkie on pokie reforms. The hard fact was the Labor minority government did not have the numbers in the lower house to pass Wilkie's preferred bill. It was because Windsor and Oakeshott, unfortunately, opposed Wilkie's proposal.
While it's probably fair to say there was no great enthusiasm for pokie reform among Labor MPs, Julia Gillard was not going to risk a legislative defeat on the floor of the lower house. It would have been accompanied by cries from the Libs and the media that this (incorrectly) amounted to a vote of no-confidence in the government and an election should be called.
Jason Clare ads his thoughts.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1516299369863352321
One possibility, if a hung parliament eventuates, is for the Teals to guarantee supply and confidence to the Coalition on one hand, while combining with Labor and the Greens to legislate for a proper integrity commission and for some meaningful climate action on the other.
Thus we would have a minority Lib-Nats government, but at least one unable to block a federal ICAC or climate action.
Which, if they decided to do this then the Coalition government would do a deal with the RWNJ Senators in the Upper House to block the legislation. Or amend it to death. Until such time as they had a Double Dissolution trigger and Morrison the Marvelous Campaigner could craft a campaign for majority control of the Lower House to ‘end the chaos and dysfunction’. Too easy.
Surely, talking about the number ‘could be” seats is surely a bit premature at the moment – for either side?
The fact that Deves has’pulled out’ of a community forum might indicate that her candidacy is NOT a well thought out cunning plan to insite the countries bigots, but merely a Morrison brain fart, which he is too stubborn to reverse….If it were a plan, she would be all in on these forums and any way else she could get attention
Zoomster
Is the behaviour of your neighbour out of character?
BeaglieBoy
Liberals in teal targeted seats have been skipping candidate forums.
mathias corman is a bit of a strangec case sceen as the governments strongist performer before leaving to take up oecd as finance minister strongist media performer but slightly robottic and responsible for nogeciatingthe passage of most bills government has not dun well in sennot since yet in wa very contravercial and aparently him and petter collier distroyed wa libs and is sceen as pulling the strings still from paris and has selected bad state candadates
Andrew Clennell Sky News politics journalist
@aclennell
·
3h
Appears very clear it is a Scott Morrison tactic at press conferences to talk down the clock to avoid taking questions
Victoria
Well, he seems to think it is, or he wouldn’t have bothered explaining to us what was going on!
Tricot @ #647 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:15 pm
The ‘establishment’ line now is to create fear of a minority Govt.
They did this to the Gillard Govt.
This tactic is an attack on the Teals/Greens who they see as a threat to the establishments (fossil fuel cartel) control of parliament.
It’s fine to use KD as a sacrificial lamb in Warringah, in fact it is very smart.
Teals might win North Sydney and Mackellar as a result of alienating moderate liberals but ultimately these seats go back to Liberal in the long-term. However rust belt seats like Macquarie and Hunter will be permanently lost to the ALP the “anti-woke non-college white males” will fundamentally shift to the Coalition. It also makes perfect sense as the Coalition shifts from a liberal-conservative centre-right Euro-Christian-Democratic party to a national-conservative Trumpist/Orbanist party in the long term.
Anyway for me at least I get my stage 3 tax cuts. And I’ll be dead before the world goes into true climate meltdown.
Cool story @Freya.
MB….but if her main brief was to stir up such sentiment across the country and not worry wether or not she won her seat then she would attend
“ @Martin B – the kicker is the Senate.”
Yes that’s true.
But I’d be surprised if LNP +RWNJ had a blocking majority. Lambie clearly wouldn’t support neutering a FCIAC (although she might negotiate details); I think the LNP would have only two PHON onside for that.
(And if LNP + PHON are a blocking majority in the Senate, there will be little a ALP minority government could do legislatively anyway.)
Zoomster
Could be onset of dementia or delirium as a result of an untreated infection. Needs to be assessed by medicos.
do not buy this hung parliament lynn since friday albanese has been performing solidly and morrison has made some gafs soundid very flat in wa today in that poorly atendid ralley just now remember in Sa desbite Mallinuscass huge lead the lib mouth pease penberthey was ashoring us that it would be a hung parliament think labor will get about 80 to 84 seats the rng media can never acsept labor will win a majoirity certain to pick up 3 in wa swon maybi hazluck and hopifuly kanning
If the 2PP is at 53/47 in favour of Labor, and they cannot form a government on that outcome, we are back to Playford in SA.
Playford only for starters, because of the advantage Regional and Rural electorates had over metropolitan electorates back in the day saw other Conservative governments elected elsewhere as well
And I would offer that this “hung parliament” feeds into the perennial Liberal Party attack line that the ALP will be marching to the tune of the Greens.
Vote Labor
Get Greens.
Time in memorial.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #650 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:19 pm
Clare and Bowen and others were in the pocket of Clubs NSW for donations.
Gillard was rolled. Wilkie was stiffed.
Cronus says:
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 at 4:10 pm
Upnorth
Semantics aside, we are an unusual bunch that I find unable to explain to non-Queenslanders. To use an American example, A mix of West Virginia and California, unmoving conservatism to outright hedonism (Gold Coast).
————————-
We are indeed a strange bunch. Once I went into Woolies in NSW with just me “stubbies” on. No shirt and no thongs. It was hot and we were near a beach. People stared at me like I had two heads. Perhaps the “sugar cane champagne” (Bundy Rum) that does it.
But I don’t think it’s the Climate. Territorians don’t seem as “different” to the rest of Australia as us.
@ Here we Go Again
Yes the LNP in Queensland is being infiltrated by Bible Bashers.
The LNP MP for Cleveland, Dr Mark Robinson, is a massive God Bother’er. But he isn’t a quack so don’t go to him if you fall crook. His is a Doctor of Theology, but uses the title Doctor.
Former Nat now LNP MP for Maroochydore, Fiona Simpson, daughter of former Nat Minister Gordon “Simpleton” is also heavily into the speaking with tongues.
Anna Bligh’s last Cabinet though had a good smattering of Micks (close to half) and Goat Riders (Masons – Old Guarders).
Out my way, Peter Dutton’s big success for Dickson (according to his billboards) have been more car parks (yet to be delivered) at the Ferny Grove train station. Firstly, I don’t think he can claim a yet to be undelivered promise as a success. Secondly, it hardly seems like a strong point for the man whose key responsibility in life is meant to be the defence of Australia.
214,000 extra people on the electoral roll in one day alone, you would think most of them are young people and either Labor or Greens or Teal voters
Freya
Think you’re commenting on the wrong country.
zoomster @ #589 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 3:10 pm
Obviously, go to his house and establish as fact or fiction whether he’s telling the truth about the bugs. Duh!
This really is a wonderful achievement and would I believe give SfM another rather large cluster headache dealing with the reality that the young are switched on and ready to cast their vote.
The Age
‘Modern democratic miracle’: Australia records biggest enrolment day in history
By Marta Pascual Juanola
Monday was Australia’s biggest electoral enrolment day in the nation’s history, with 214,000 applications submitted to the Australian Electoral Commission.
The commission estimates 17.2 million Australians will be enrolled to vote in the May federal election, or the equivalent of about 96 per cent of eligible voters.
About 96 per cent of eligible Australians will be registered to vote at the May election.
About 96 per cent of eligible Australians will be registered to vote at the May election.Credit:Chris Hopkins
Final enrolment figures are yet to be released but more than 700,000 applications were submitted this week alone.
Commissioner Tom Rogers said the state of the roll in Australia was “something that is simply not seen in most places around the world”.
“Quite frankly it is a modern democratic miracle,” he said.
Almost 1000 electoral staff worked through the Easter weekend to ensure the commission met the demand.
“The systems operated smoothly and securely under the load and Australia now has the highest base for democratic participation it has ever had,” Rogers said.
“Australians should feel great pride in this achievement and confidence that it sets the foundation for election results to reflect the will of the people.“
The majority of people who had enrolled to vote since the election was called on April 10 were young Australians aged 18 to 24, Rogers said.
I find this minority government talk ridiculous tbh. The polls have been consistently around 52.5-53 to Labor. If they tighten sure but currently it would be highly highly unlikely Labor couldn’t form a majority government with a 4-4.5% national swing to them. I cannot understand how apparent political journalists who have covered politics for years don’t get that
If the MSM keep saying it will be a hung parliament then I’m betting any undecideds will break for the ALP given most people don’t want another 3 years of chaos and mayhem.
Xenu,
The MSM are as thick as bricks. They way they have treated SloMo with kid gloves for the past 3 years says it all.
Tricot
If the result was 47 – 53 to the Coalition we know they’d be screaming those simple figures from every rooftop, without any qualification.
Rex Douglas @ #673 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:30 pm
Bfd. 😐
And a complete trivialisation of a complex period in our nation’s parliamentary history.
hazza4257 @ #588 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 3:07 pm
Unless Newspoll is 57/43 or better, everyone should be panicking like it’s 2019 all over again.
Vanbadam twitter
Here it is!
“We’re seeking, as I said, to put all income management onto the universal platform… which is the cashless debit card.”
Anne Ruston, Minister for Families and Social Services in Scott Morrison’s Liberal/National government, on 7 News, February 2020.
#auspol https://t.co/DoRJOaUlcf
Correct me if I’m wrong (and I have no doubt you will 😉 ) but LNP + PHON cannot get a blocking majority without either a) getting 3 in SA or b) getting 4 in another state, right?
Freya Stark
Your logic requires quite the leap of faith in my estimation.
You’d think the journalists themselves would have piped up.
on proben and liberal links from 2005 to 2016 was the political edator of west australian surprized there so liberal asvery against mark mcgowan yet he won in a land slide proben was critical of libs for a while and morrison even cut him off at one presser penny wong is labors mostp popular mp so no wonder the lnp targited her with mean girls on the cristion links in qld theres stoaker mat canivan and james mcgrath protogay of lib spinner linton crozbey is leading lnp sennot ticket close to dutton but was turnbullsnumbers man leading the discrimintry voter id push and wants to privatise abc
Martin B @ #686 Tuesday, April 19th, 2022 – 4:37 pm
I don’t think we know how UAP, Liberal Democrats and whoever takes the place of the Centre Alliance Senators, will shake out.
@a r – with respect, fuck that for a laugh, lol
Martin. Coalition alone should have blocking majority if they get 3 in each state (doable). Will only fall to needing PHON to block if they miss 3 in 2 states (unlikely to miss it in more states than that).
In other words, Coalition will almost certainly have blocking majority and only require 1 PHON to pass if they win the election.
Hey, SA Bludgers (especially those who are still watching regular TV), have any of you seen or heard any real campaigning from Nick Xenophon so far?
I haven’t. And I would’ve thought that, considering he’s running for the Senate in an independent slot and his brand has cooled a little over the last few years that he might want to, y’know, get his name back out there. Maybe I’m wrong and he’s been everywhere (and I just haven’t seen it) or maybe he thinks his name is still strong enough that it just appearing on a ballot is enough to get him over the line?
There is no way a hung parliament is likely with a 6.5% swing against the lib/nats
Its a pleasant situation that us ‘small state’ people find ourselves in…..for as long as the big states of Victoria, NSW and Qld can at a minimum hold the line with a net zero loss/gain, the election can be won for the ALP in Tas, SA and WA.
If the good guys can win Bass, Braddon, Boothby, Swan, Pearce and Hasluck…..then there is your ALP Government.
Relying on Qlds fickle political moods is always fraught with potential and actual dissapointments
A State of North Queensland defined as North of 22°S (just South of Sarina) would contain Cairns (population ~ 150K) and Townsville (~ 180 K), plus a string of coastal towns (mostly ~2-10K) and a huge, sparsely populated inland back yard (biggest town Mt Isa ~ 20K). It might have a population comparable to that of Tasmania.
Frankly I think it’s great that the LNP is now trying the scare campaign of “but muh hung parliament!!” All it will do is make people more likely to vote for the ALP. The ALP is served by voters thinking it is going to be close. They aren’t served when voters think it is going to be a wipe-out.