To mark the occasion of today’s announcement of May 21 as the date of the federal election, I have given my federal election guide a thorough overhaul, which it needed, having not been seriously updated since January. A great many candidates have been announced since then, among the most notable being those Liberal candidates in New South Wales whose positions were not confirmed until Friday, when the High Court definitively quashed a long-running challenge against the manner of their selection. In addition to confirming incumbents including Sussan Ley in Farrer, Alex Hawke in Mitchell and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney – the first two being cabinet ministers – a further nine candidates had been rubber-stamped by a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven, including five in seats of actual or potential interest:
• Jenny Ware, a moderate-aligned lawyer who works at Georges River Council, will run against Craig Kelly, now of the United Australia Party, in Hughes. The choice of Ware appeared to throw a bone to the local party membership, who were angered by earlier plans to impose Manly-resident PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore on the electorate. They were nonetheless deprived of the preselection ballot that would otherwise have pitted Ware against state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons, presumably reflecting Perrottet’s determination that there should be no by-election for Gibson’s existing seat.
• Jerry Nockles, Pharmacy Guild executive, navy veteran and former staffer to politicians including Senator Jim Molan, will be the candidate for Eden-Monaro. Dan Jervis-Bardy of The Canberra Times reports a rival candidate, former Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council deputy mayor Mark Schweikert, withdrew his nomination after the cancellation of a rank-and-file ballot, saying he did not wish to be seen to endorse the national executive’s takeover.
• Maria Kovacic, Franchise Council of Australia director and former owner of an ANZ franchise, will face off against Labor’s Andrew Charlton in Parramatta. Another nominee for the preselection was Charles Camenzuli, engineer and brother of Matt Camenzuli, who had pursued the legal action against the takeover of the preselection process.
• Katherine Deves, a lawyer and co-founder of a group that campaigns for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, will seek to recover Warringah from independent Zali Steggall. Deves was given dispensation to run despite not having been a financial party member for the requisite six months, as the party hierarchy cast around for an option better suited to local sentiment than arch-conservative Lincoln Parker.
• Pradeep Pathi, a project manager at Westpac, will run against Labor’s Michelle Rowland in Greenway, where he might find himself buoyed by the results of a new seat poll, on which more below.
Another legal issue worth noting is that the Liberal Democrats have found a loophole in legislation designed in large part to force them to drop the word “Liberal” from their name, and will accordingly contest the election under their existing name. Antony Green relates that the party withdrew its voluntary application to change its name on March 22, compelling the Australian Electoral Commission to lodge a notice to deregister it for falling foul of the new law, initiating a process that will not be complete by the time the existing register of parties is set in stone by the issue of the election writs.
Polling news:
• The News Corp papers yesterday published four seat polls by Redbridge, which were a mixed bag on voting intention, to the extent that the reporting allowed this to be discerned. A poll for Bass had the Liberals on 36% (down 6.3% on the 2019 result) and Labor on 36% (up 1.3%); in Paterson, Labor were on 38% (down 3.1%) and the Coalition were “0.58% higher”, which I think means 33%;; in Greenway, Labor was on 38% (down 7.9%) and Liberal were on 40% (down 0.6%); and in Longman, the Liberal National Party was on 34% (down 4.6%) and Labor were on 33% (down 1.1%). This suggests Labor would knock over a 0.4% margin in Bass but fail to defend its 2.8% margin in Greenway, while falling slightly short against a 3.3% margin in Longman and suffering a survivable swing against their 5.0% margin in Paterson. Results on economic questions seem to be worse for the Coalition than usual, with Labor “neck-and-neck” on economic management, cost of living and interest rates, and no majority support for the notion that the Liberals were “a safe pair of hands in these uncertain times” or that “taxes will always be higher under a Labor government”. The polls sampled “between 800 and 1000” respondents and were “conducted in the past week&8221; – further clarification on both counts will shortly be forthcoming when Redbridge publishes its methodology statement.
• InDaily has published results of a Greens-commissioned uComms poll from across South Australia showing Labor with a lead of 58-42, a swing in their favour of 7.3%. The primary votes were Liberal 33.2%, Labor 39.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 3.6% and One Nation 3.1%, with 5.6% undecided. The results in 2019 were Liberal 40.6% (plus 0.3% for the Nationals), Labor 35.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 4.3% and One Nation (who ran in only one seat) 0.8%. Also featured was a result on Senate voting intention, which was remarkably poor for Nick Xenophon: Liberal 32.2%, Labor 36.1%, Greens 11.6%, Nick Xenophon 5.2%, Rex Patrick 3.0%, One Nation 3.9% and United Australia Party 2.7%, compared with 2019 results of Liberal 37.8%, Labor 30.4%, Greens 10.9%, One Nation 4.9%, United Australia Party 3.0% and Centre Alliance 2.6%. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1052. InDaily reports the result were at odds with Labor internal polling conducted before Nick Xenophon announced his run, which found 16.3% would vote for him if he did so, along with 30.8% for Labor, 27.7% for Liberal, 8.9% for the Greens and 5.2% for One Nation.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:46 pm
An unfortunate metaphor after the bushfires.
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Yes, particular when he fled to hawaii , while leaving Australians to defend for themselves
Safe prediction: tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph will promise fair unbiased coverage and then the next 6 weeks will be anti Labor
C@tmomma @ #94 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:46 pm
He’s fired up because he doesn’t hold a hose.
“I can’t for the life of me understand why people think Albo is underwhelming but were willing to throw their panties at Littlefinger. It astounds me.”
***
Albanese is a far more likable person than Shorten, that’s for sure. He’s character and reputation isn’t a drag on Labor as Bill’s was last time. That’s not Albo’s problem at all, and I think the Liberals are making a serious mistake in trying to make it all about him. Labor’s terribly uninspiring “small target” platform, as well as their dedication to destroying the environment and maintaining the right wing status quo are their real weaknesses, not Albo’s personality.
Evan
Same as the whole Murdoch media circus.
I gotta say Jennett and Norman are being very fair.
Apparently Palmer will preference against all sitting members so that should favor Labor in QLD.
When the pandemic first came into Australia
If Morrison/his cronies and the media had their way of letting the virus spread and live with the virus with no state/territory border closure no lockdowns , Australia would be in far worst position than it is now
Bloody ABC, putting their camera to the right of Albanese. So he can’t look down the barrel of the camera to deliver his message. 😡
yabba says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:51 pm
He’s fired up because he doesn’t hold a hose.
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People should not forget those words
I once owned a Zegna shirt. I NEVER ironed it, fearful of ruining it or shortening its lifespan. I loved that shirt. When I wore it I reckon I would have caused nath to question his sexuality.
As it neared the end I planned to keep it for working around the house – but it was like one of Maxwell Smart’s messages and it completely self destructed on the first day.
C@tmomma @ #108 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:26 pm
Have they stuffed up the sound too? I have my suspicions…
People have really got to get out of the conspiratorial bunker lol …
Having said that … ABC seems to have ongoing issues with sound.
Simon Katich @ #109 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:58 pm
Yeah, he sounds a bit like Ben Chifley delivering his opening pitch on the radio back in the day. 😆
Good speech from Albo imo.
Albanese has got a new suit. Wonder if it’s a Zegna? 😉
jt1983 @ #112 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:29 pm
I have noticed an issue with ABC sound when covering important ALP speeches in the past. A few times. One in particular was Shortens conference speech – there was a delay. Sure, it is a little bit ‘space laser’. But I am watching them now.
93 was biggest turnaround I believe. 2019 next biggest.
Albanese needs to get a screw-in tooth to put in place of the missing one. (I’m all about appearances and subliminal messages that get sent).
Khan gone?
This constant questioning about Ministerial positions is tiresome.
I thought Albo had the dentals done?
Matt31
From earlier in thread.
This Twitter feed may help with the polling from Redbridge
https://mobile.twitter.com/KosSamaras?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
C@t
Especially as they havent been elected yet.
Khan is too lefty for my liking
Lars Von Trier @ #118 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 2:08 pm
Most but not all it seems. Though it could just be a shadow effect.
Albo nailing his lines nicely here.
Measured, calm and authoritative.
I’m baffled on the take that the lnp and some media are pushing in that Albanese is somehow unknown or untested.
Out of all opposition leaders how many have had more years as an MP and ministerial experience? He’s commenting on it now.
Just seems bizarre to me they think it’s even worth pursuing and in my mind shows how little they’ve been able to find to hold against him.
Will the MSM pay attention? He has refuted all their starting gun memes quite well. Or will they just ignore him and keep plugging away at them?
If Brighton votes for Albo what does that say about Brightons attitude to public housing just asking for a dear friend named Wendy
Courtesy of Dr Bonham
The Keating government 1993 trailed 46.5-53.5 four weeks out and won the 2PP 51.4-48.6.
* The Howard government 2001 led 57-43 seven weeks out, 56.5-43.5 five weeks out and 55.5-44.5 four weeks out and only won the 2PP 51-49. (This was the bounce for the S11 attacks going away).
* The Howard government 2004 trailed 46-54 eight weeks out and won the 2PP 52.7-47.3. However the 46-54 was by respondent preferences (really more like 47-53) and also it was a rogue reading.
* The Howard government 2007 trailed 42-58 five weeks out and lost the 2PP 47.3-52.7.
* The Gillard government 2010 led 55-45 five weeks out and only won the 2PP 50.1-49.9.
Albo made a point to the journos that he will stay to answer all their questions. If he keeps doing this he will show a big contrast to Morrison’s gutless cut and run efforts.
Albo has been in parliament longer than Morrison thats all he has to say.
I’m going for the Le Pen-Morrison double! Not a bad multi for my $200 flutter.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 2:05 pm
Albanese needs to get a screw-in tooth to put in place of the missing one. (I’m all about appearances and subliminal messages that get sent).
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Lol C@tmoma
I’m having to rapidly raise the volume to hear the journos questions then rapidly lower it again when Albo answers..
John Cee @ #128 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 2:12 pm
Pushing a narrative is all the rage for the CPG.
C@t re Ministerial responsibility…I liked Richard Marles response this morning on Insiders:
Please ask the Coalition who is going to be Health Minister if they are re elected.
That line needs to be repeated throughout the campaign as well as who will be Infastructure Minister, Minister for the Environment, NDIS, Treasurer etc
The West Australian made something yesterday of asking Tanya Plibersek if she would stay in the parliament if Labor lost and her reply that she was only thinking about winning.
I would expect them to put the same question to LNP frontbenchers.
I suspect they won’t.
Good stuff Albo.
Little bit of waffling at the end but overall did good, played strong.
Please don’t fuck this up labor, I couldn’t bear another 2019..
c@t: “Bloody ABC, putting their camera to the right of Albanese. So he can’t look down the barrel of the camera to deliver his message. ”
It must have been agreed that the cameraman from somewhere other than the ABC would get to occupy the “line of sight” (ie, the direction in which the person giving the press conference is looking). The ABC gets more than its fair share, so they can’t complain. If you flick around the news programs tonight, you’ll find one channel on which Albo will be looking straight into the camera.
If Albo’s advisers had anything to do with it, I’m sure they would have gone with one of Seven or Nine being in the line of sight. So perhaps that’s what happened.
And objectively as possible- Albo did very well and the contrast with Morrison is quite telling.
BTW, I thought Albo did really well. If he can keep that standard up, I’ll become more optimistic.
Rossmcg: “The West Australian made something yesterday of asking Tanya Plibersek if she would stay in the parliament if Labor lost and her reply that she was only thinking about winning.
I would expect them to put the same question to LNP frontbenchers.
I suspect they won’t.”
Who on earth cares whether or not anyone from a losing Opposition stays or goes?
Why do we need this weasely moron, Jennett, to tell us what to think?
I hope someone with more graphics skills than me can graft SfM’s head onto a nurses uniform with the caption “I saved 40,000 – The Real Scott Morrison”.
Plus anybody that drops a Ramones reference automatically gets my vote.
Gabba Gabba Hey!
Albo killed it. Brilliant presser. ABC are complaining that Albo spoke too much.
I loved that Albo put the pressure back on what are the Government’s policies.
Pretty good presser by Albo.
Detailing his achievements in government was excellent.
Needs to do it more often.
Could have reminded everyone that Labor created the CEFC.
Good start.
Let’s hope the punters get to hear some of it.
Let’s hope the CPG learn some respect for someone who actually does stuff.
Rex Douglas @ #NaN Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 11:33 am
Ignore the Greens.